Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment

31

Transcript of Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment

35 33

10

7 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fe

b 1

0

Au

g 1

0

Fe

b 1

1

Au

g 1

1

Fe

b 1

2

Au

g 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Au

g 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Au

g 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

3 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

2010 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

4

14,179

55,775

43,451 45,455

36,000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

Feb 1

4

Aug

14

Feb 1

5

GREEN PARTY

MEMBERSHIP

LIB DEM

MEMBERSHIP UKIP MEMBERSHIP

Sources: http://www.libdemvoice.org/tag/party-membership

http://www.ukip.org/ukip_is_delighted_to_announce_yet_another_record_membership_figure

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/02/green-party-membership-doubles-ukip-

mainstream-politics

http://www.channel4.com/news/green-party-membership-growth-ukip-natalie-bennett

15% 11%

3%

18-34 35-54 55+

6

And they are more likely

than supporters of any

other major party to use…..*

More likely to

be female…

FEMALE

56% MALE

44%

Younger voters are more likely

to vote Green

76% 39%

Source: Political Monitor (737 adults aged 18+ who say they are certain to vote in May 2015. Interviewed by telephone, fieldwork dates 12th - 15th April)

Source *: Political Monitor (Aggregated data from January – December 2014. 388 adults aged 18+ who say they are certain to vote in May 2015 and plan to vote for the Green Party.

All interviewed by telephone)

7

11 percentage

points

6 percentage

points

7 percentage

points

Private renters

Young women

(18-34) People dissatisfied

with the

government

Source: Political Monitor (Aggregated data from January – April 2014 and January – April 2015. Adults aged 18+ who say they are certain to vote in May 2015 and plan to vote for the

Green Party. All interviewed by telephone)

Up by

30%

26%

14%

5%

11%

11% 3%

Lib Dem

Green

Labour

Conservatrive

Other

Did not vote

Too young

8 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? / WHICH PARTY DID YOU VOTE FOR AT THE GENERAL ELECTION ON MAY 6TH 2010?

How those planning to vote Green in 2015 voted in 2010

Source: Political Monitor (Aggregated data from January – December 2014. 388 adults aged 18+ who say they are certain to vote in May 2015 and plan to vote for the Green Party. All

interviewed by telephone)

All data points represent > 200 responses

9 DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?

Source: British Social Attitudes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war

Baby

boomers

Gen X

Gen Y

Data shows 2010 recalled past vote and current voting intentions of 3,045 British adults aged 18+ interviewed January-March 2015. Current voting intentions are based only on those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, while those who were unable or refused to say how they voted in 2010 are not shown.

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10

11

% Mentions

*selected issues

Green

Party

Conservative Labour Liberal

Democrats

UKIP

Economy 35% 44% 34% 47% 26%

Environment 30% 5% 7% 13% 3%

Poverty/Equality 30% 8% 20% 18% 8%

NHS 28% 29% 27% 31% 28%

Unemployment 23% 19% 34% 18% 21%

Education 21% 16% 16% 21% 10%

Immigration 19% 50% 27% 34% 77%

WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE MOST/OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING BRITAIN TODAY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, base: GB Adults aged 18+ (10,746) Aggregated from January-December 2014

12

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH, IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH PARTY TO VOTE FOR?

Source: Political Monitor (1,000 adults aged 18+ interviewed by telephone, fieldwork dates 12th - 15th April):

0%

100%

10% 5%

30%

3% 1%

Protecting the natural environment / climate change

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan

98

Jan

99

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Source: Issues Index, c.1,000 adults aged 18+ interviewed face-to-face in home across Great Britain per month. Data based on annual averages for each issue, including January –

April in 2015

14 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE MOST/OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING BRITAIN TODAY?

Economy

immigration

NHS Environment

Unemployment

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WHAT ARE THE ISSUES RELATING TO THE ENVIRONMENT THAT YOU THINK ARE MOST IMPORTANT FOR THE UK AT THE MOMENT?

Source: BBC / Ipsos MORI Election uncut community

Notes:

Word cloud based on 1,168 survey responses from adults aged

18-75 from Election Uncut. 17th – 21st April 2015

Removed common English words and single mentions, otherwise

image shows unedited verbatim, top 100 words. Data is

qualitative and unweighted

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Source: BBC / Ipsos MORI Election uncut community

AND WHAT ARE THE ISSUES RELATING TO THE ENVIRONMENT THAT YOU THINK ARE MOST IMPORTANT FOR THE WORLD AT THE MOMENT?

Notes:

Word cloud based on 1,168 survey

responses from adults aged 18-75

from Election Uncut. 17th – 21st April

2015

Removed common English words

and single mentions, otherwise

image shows unedited verbatim, top

100 words. Data is qualitative and

unweighted

17 HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH IS SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS ‘GLOBAL WARNING?

87

78

78

46

43

43

36

35

35

27

24

22

19

17

16

10

9

8

6

Very concerned Fairly concerned Don’t know Not very concerned Not at all concerned

40

40

2

11

7

66

27

2 4 2

18% are not

concerned

(Con. = 34%

Lab. = 6%)

31%

are not

concerned

(Con. = 31%

Lab. = 33%)

8

57 2

21

13

18

49

1

24

7 16

49

1

25

8 15

53

1

27

4

80% are

concerned

(Con. = 64%

Lab. = 92%)

68%

are

concerned

(Con. = 68%

Lab. = 65%)

PUBLIC

Sources: Base: All MPs (104), Conservative MPs (46), Labour MPs (45) asked, Winter 2014

MPs

Public: Ipsos MORI and Cardiff University. 1,002 adults aged 16+ interviewed face-to-face in home across Great Britain

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Source: Ipsos MORI and Cardiff University. 1,002 adults aged 16+ interviewed face-to-face in home across Great Britain

68 %

overall 83%

84%

68%

65%

HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH IS SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS ‘GLOBAL WARNING?

66%

19 WHICH OF THE SUBJECTS ON THIS LIST, IF ANY, DO YOU RECEIVE MOST LETTERS ABOUT IN YOUR POST BAG, OR RECEIVE MOST APPROACHES ABOUT FROM INDIVIDUALS IN CLINICS OR OTHER WAYS?

64

64

64

50

48

38

38

35

34

32

28

28

25

24

20

Benefits

Housing

Health Service

Child Support/Child Support…

Asylum/Immigration/ refugees

Badger culls

Tax Credits

Pensions

Public transport

Education/schools

Care of the elderly

Social security

Rail services

Animal Research/ Experimentation

Energy

:

‘Climate

change’

features as the

21st most

mentioned

subject,

mentioned by

17% of MPs

Base: All MPs (99), Conservative MPs (45), Labour MPs (43) asked, Winter 2014:

21 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON THE ENVIRONMENT /

AFFORDABLE ENERGY?

10%

11%

9%

2%

43%

4%

22%

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other, including Greens

None

Don’t know

Environment

17%

14%

6% 2%

23%

6%

32%

Affordable Energy

Source: Political Monitor (1,000 adults aged 18+ interviewed by telephone, fieldwork dates 12th - 15th April):

24%

4%

12%

23%

36%

22 WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF…

…NATALIE BENNETT, THE LEADER OF THE GREEN PARTY, AND THE GREEN PARTY?

Base: split sample question, 511 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Bennett &

the

Greens

%

March 2015

Total like her 28

Total do not like her 35

Total like her party 36

Total do not like her party 27

March 2015

I LIKE HER AND I

LIKE HER PARTY

I LIKE HER BUT I DO

NOT LIKE HER

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HER

BUT I LIKE HER

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HER

AND I DO NOT LIKE

HER PARTY

DON’T KNOW

-35

-59

-57

-62

-54

28

30

31

30

39

Greens

UKIP

Lib Dem

Labour

Conservative

64%

23 WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF … LEADER AND … PARTY?

:

Base: split sample question, 511 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

36

25

40

52

33

-27

-64

-48

-40

-60

Greens

UKIP

Lib Dem

Labour

Conservative

Don’t like leader (%) Like leader (%)

Don’t like party (%) Like party (%)

24 YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR/BE INCLINED TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW. SUPPOSE THAT NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY AFTER THE ELECTION.

HOW STRONGLY WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH …XXX IF THEY HAD ENOUGH SEATS BETWEEN THEM FOR A MAJORITY?

57

17

36

22

25

26

20

31

68

48

64

58

62

65

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 267 Conservative, 285 Labour and 66 Liberal Democrat supporters*, all British adults 18+, 8th -10th

February 2014. *Small base sizes indicative only

Conservative

supporters

Labour supporters

Liberal Democrat

supporters

...UKIP

...Liberal Democrats

...Liberal Democrats

…Green Party

% Oppose % Support Form a coalition with…

…Conservatives

…Labour

…SNP

29

57

49

15

76

35

63

31

34

73

10

49

25 YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR/BE INCLINED TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW. SUPPOSE THAT NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY AFTER THE ELECTION.

HOW STRONGLY WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH …XXX IF THEY HAD ENOUGH SEATS BETWEEN THEM FOR A MAJORITY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 267 Conservative, 285 Labour and 66 Liberal Democrat supporters*, all British adults 18+, 8 th -10th February 2014.

*Small base sizes indicative only

% Oppose % Support Form a coalition with…

UKIP supporters

Green Party supporters

Scottish National Party

supporters

...Conservatives

...Labour

... Conservatives

…Labour

…Conservatives

…Labour

HOW FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE ARE YOUR OVERALL OPINIONS AND IMPRESSIONS OF THESE INDUSTRIES?

Base: All PPCS (98), Conservative PPCs (26), Labour PPCs (29), Liberal Democrat PPCs (20) asked.

3 February – 13 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI PPC Survey 2015

20

8

9

16

12

4

6

12

9

1

3

8

3

1

53

56

53

40

36

40

37

28

30

34

30

21

24

15

1

5

8

9

19

18

17

12

12

18

28

27

24

34

2

2

1

5

2

2

17

3

7

7

14

12

18

Automotive

Airline

Telecoms

Food and drink

Rail

Supermarkets

Pensions

Nuclear energy

Pharmaceutical

Insurance

Energy

Newspapers

Financial services

Banking

% Total favourable

Con. Lab. Lib Dem.

84 83 70

85 55 50

69 66 45

54 55 47

62 31 40

58 59 35

46 45 45

62 38 25

58 38 20

35 34 35

38 28 20

42 17 20

54 7 25

46 3 5

% very favourable % mainly favourable % mainly unfavourable % very unfavourable

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HOW FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE ARE YOUR OVERALL OPINIONS AND IMPRESSIONS OF THESE INDUSTRIES?

Base: All MPs (107), Conservative MPs (47), Labour MPs (47) asked.

Winter 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI MPs Survey Winter 2014

29

24

17

10

14

11

5

2

3

5

1

3

58

56

53

59

51

38

30

26

24

21

25

12

13

2

2

9

4

4

31

25

19

38

27

12

41

42

2

1

1

6

3

7

7

1

19

8

Manufacturing

Automotive

Pharmaceutical

Retail

Construction

Rail

Energy

Insurance

Financial Services

Media

Mining

Banking

PR & Lobbying

% Total favourable

Con. Lab.

86 86

88 77

82 58

79 57

63 64

46 44

52 18

42 15

44 10

28 24

28 22

28 0

21 4

% very favourable % mainly favourable % mainly unfavourable % very unfavourable

28

3

11

23

9

21

14

31

17

24

54

60

16

12

6

22

12

22

12

35

38

25

60

Tourism

Oil and Gas

Construction

Farming and agriculture

Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology

Aerospace and defense

High Street Retail

Electricity and Power

Technology and the internet

Manufacturing

Transport

Conservative MPs Labour MPs

LOOKING AT THIS LIST OF INDUSTRY SECTORS, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THEM DO YOU THINK NEED THE

MOST GOVERNMENT SUPPORT OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS?

Base: All MPs (66), Conservative MPs (27) and Labour MPs (30),asked, Summer MPs 2014

56

40

31

26

20

19

17

16

15

12

12

All MPs

% Top mentions

Source: Ipsos MORI MPs survey

29

17

10

19

10

19

13

41

40

32

61

6

15

15

31

33

34

12

27

52

42

Aerospace and Defence

Oil and Gas

Transport

Electricity and Power

Financial services

Banking

Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology

Construction

Technology and the internet

Manufacturing

Conservative MPs Labour MPs

AND WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THEM DO YOU THINK ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT FOR GROWING THE UK

ECONOMY OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS?

Base: All MPs (68), Conservative MPs (28) and Labour MPs (31),asked, Summer MPs 2014

55

41

31

24

24

24

22

17

14

13

All MPs

% Top mentions

Source: Ipsos MORI MPs survey

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For any questions about the content of this slide deck or the infographic that it

supports, please contact one of:

Matthew Evans ([email protected] | 020 7347 3004)

Antonia Dickman ([email protected] | 020 7347 3157)