Eurogroup over, inconclusive | Finland to clarify its position | PM Renzi expected to intervene

tomorrow in favour of an agreement (12 July 2015)

-- The Eurogroup is over, several media report. No conclusion was reached. Discussions to continue

tomorrow. Finland to clarify its position until then, Greek media report among others. 

@alexstubb: End of #Eurogroup session. To be continued tomorrow. 

@JosephMuscat_JM: Briefed about inconclusive #Eurogroup meeting. It will be a long day -JM

@straneuropa: Eurogroup to restart tomorrow at 11 am

Eurogruppo ricomincia domani alle 11

#greece @la_stampa 

(To allow time to the Finns,  guess)

@Maria_Tejero: Second person that tells me that we may have two #Eurogroup this week: The

expected one on Monday an another one later in the week #Greece

-- Retrospectively and in view of future talks, several media write that, since the ESM Treaty says

that 85% of capital holders decide, a third bailout for Greece can go ahead without Finland. But this

might have big consequences for the newly elected Finnish government, which could collapse,

EurActiv reports among others. 

@JarnoHa: This is the ESM treaty paragraph #Eurogroup might be looking at the moment. #Greece

http://t.co/8vtnQbQ9Sp

@ALeipold: I doubt it'll be invoked, but here's how the ESM's "emergency procedure" works.

http://t.co/iVphVXannf http://t.co/CpMYjViRtw

-- Eurozone finance ministers were told on Saturday that some 25 billion of any bailout loan to

Greece would be needed to recapitalise banks that are on the verge of collapse, sources close to the

discussions said, as quoted by several media. SKAI TV quotes sources in Athens saying that a viral

Bild's blog article (claiming that "Greece may need more than 100 bn euros") "mixes up non-

congruent and unjustifiable elements".

-- The Telegraph reports that the White House intervened alongside Oli Rehn, who was asked to

convince FinMin Stubb to stop blocking an agreement. 

@rapidis: #USA is pressing former Commissioner Oli Rehn to mediate & convince #Finland

FinMin Stubb over veto, at least till ##EUCO tomorrow.

-- The Guardian reports that PM Renzi is expected to tell his counterparts tomorrow that enough is

enough, it is time to put an end to humiliation for Greece and reach an agreement. 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/11/greek-debt-crisis-eurozone-creditors-meet-

to-decide-countrys-fate#block-55a17d6ee4b05111b7559b2c

-- SKAI TV reports that if the Eurogroup will issue a list of additional measures to be implemented

during next week, this could prompt rapid political developments for the appointment of a new

government in Athens, sources say.  

This concludes tonight's monitoring. Thanks for following. 

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos

Sent from my mobile device

On 11 Jul 2015, at 23:04, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- Journalists in Brussels are also frantically trying to clarify whether there is an emergency clause

that would allow a vote in favour of ESM against Finnish opposition. 

@isabelleory: Ce moment où la salle de presse se plonge dans le traité du MES pour examiner les

clauses d'urgence... #samedisoiràBruxelles #help

@bopanc: Apparently there's emergency clause that allows vote for ESM #Greece bailout to

overrule Finish(or any) veto if there is 85% majority

@bopanc: I mean they could theoretically vote against and the ESM bailout would still happen if

85% majority @yanpal7

@ElodieLamer: Je crois que la page web du Traité du MES vient de voir son taux de visite bondir

au-delà de tous ses espoirs #Grèce #ESM #Eurogroup

@blanpinox: @isabelleory BCE et commission doivent décider si y a urgence pour la zone euro ...

mais finlande peut pas bloquer avec son tout petit poids

-- Minister Schäuble's "Grexit plan" has made its way online. 

Several journalists are now sharing it on Twitter. Further confirmations arrive that it was backed by

Chancellor Merkel. 

@mathieuvonrohr: Here's the Schäuble Grexit plan everybody is talking about - via @sven_giegold

http://t.co/zYwTeyx4Q5

@NinaDSchick: Not really breaking anymore but @dpa confirms that #Schäuble's 5-year

temporary #Grexit plan was fully backed by Merkel & Gabriel.

@helenajaneczek: Some German MP from the Grüne claim Schäuble's #Grexit paper is

unconstitutional. e.g. @sven_giegold who forwarded it. @paulmasonnews

@DerekinBerlin: Finnish coalition rift over 3rd Greek package and German "timeout" proposal

leave euro group talks on knife-edge http://t.co/rBEpPbAhHl

@c_ducourtieux: #Grèce #Grexit: le "papier" Schauble a été soumis à l'EWG ce matin, mais pas sur

la table de l'Eurogroupe, diplo source

@astroisa13: Finnish media reports that Germany, Holland, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia

and Slovenia want "temporary" #Grexit

@SMuresan: Just to clarify: #Schaeuble poposed temporary exit from #Euro to give #Greece

chance to restructure debt, which is not allowed within Euro

Sent from my mobile device

On 11 Jul 2015, at 22:28, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

The Eurogroup is working on a final statement, journalists have heard from sources. It will

reportedly announce that Greece will need to implement additional measures and that the

Eurogroup will reconvene for a final deal. This prompts journalists to warn that Greek banks will

not survive until next EG. 

@giopank: Sources: #eurogroup working on a statement: #Greece to implement next week some

measures and than #Eurogroup will reconvene for final deal

@YanniKouts: Sources: #Eurogroup working on statement: #Greece to implemnt next week some

measures &than #Eurogroup will reconvene 4 final deal ~@giopank

@keeptalkingGR: #Greece's banks cannot wait foe another #eurogorup https://t.co/sDARkVHySz

@el_pais: Actualización http://t.co/JOi3M4RIKm El Eurogrupo pide a Grecia más concreción y

reformas inmediatas para firmar un tercer rescate

Journalists have all picked-up the information that Minister Stubb was mandated not to accept a

third bailout, or else Finnish government would fall. 

@JarnoHa: It is confirmed: Finnish gov't won't accept a new bailout package to #Greece.

#Eurogroup

@isabelleory: Le ministre finlandais a comme mandat de refuser des négociations, nous expliquent

nos collègues finlandais. #eurogroupe

@TomMayerEuropa: größter stolperstein für griechenland scheint im moment finnische regierung,

rechtspopulisten "wahre finnen" lehnen 3.paket offb ab #stubb

@traynorbrussels: #greece #eurogroup said here that finland's alex stubb's hands tied, soini will

bring down govt if finland agrees to any more gk funding

@jameskanter: #Eurogroup pressroom wags now asking whether Greek or Finnish government falls

first in any deal for Athens. @alexstubb @tsipras_eu

@GuillaumeTib: La Finlande encore plus ferme que l'Allemagne, @alexstubb risque la survie du

Gouvernement dont il est membre https://t.co/q9qwypqA2j

@JSLefebvre: Nouvelles de l'eurogroupe: gros souci du côté de la Finlande. Le gouv. ne survivrait

pas à un 3e plan grec. Du coup, ça coince #Grèce

@Elbarbie: Fins creating problems in #Eurogroup. Talking about "mandate issues " that they are

facing with  their government coalition partners

@vpkivimaki: Report: Finnish government nearly collapsed over decision on 3rd Greece bailout

package. Said to land on hard line. http://t.co/pqUptyBqYx

@Lencyclopedie: Accepting #Greek bailout would probably break the Finnish gov. (Center &

Cons.& True Finns), hence they resist it.  https://t.co/Pg3zAD03GE

@giopank: sources: #greece agreed to the statement, but some ministers have problems to accept it

(Finalnd) and so they will pass it to the leaders

@Edward_hugh: @LorcanRK @TheStalwart Yeah, but meanwhile the banks remain closed. That's

the strength of the Finnish position.

SKAI TV presents the configurarion of positions within Eurogroup on Greece's request as follows:

YES: Commission, FR, IT, CY

NO (or subject to severe conditions): DE, SI, SK, EE, LT, NL, FI

Another main narrative on Twitter is that Minister Schäuble reportedly consulted Chancellor

Merkel and Vice-Chancellor Gabriel on the proposal of a temporary Grexit and they agreed to

present it. 

@Promovator: schäubles plan, #griechenland "temporär" aus € zu werfen, nicht nur mit merkel

abgesprochen, sondern auch gabriel https://t.co/Q7UrKD6oY8

@eriksnewton: FAZ newspaper reporting: Merkel and SPD leader both agreed to Schaueble's

alleged plan for a 5 year "timeout" of #Greece from the Euro.

@YanniKouts: German govt sources: Idea of a temporary Grexit was agreed on by Merkel &vice-

chancellor Gabriel https://t.co/9RfU6hPtBk via @StefanLeifert

@traynorbrussels: #greece #eurogroup schaeuble's grexit paper. zdf german tv says it was squared

with merkel and gabriel

http://t.co/B5D5EJDLI2

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos

On 11 Jul 2015, at 21:34, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

Reportedly the Eurogroup is now drafting a set of additional measures they think Greece need to

implement as part of an agreement. Kathimerini reports that the Eurogroup requested further

specification of the proposed measures and for their immediate approval by the Parliament. 

@Elbarbie: Hard reform package & immediate voting of prior actions is being asked to

#Greeks.#Eurogroup discussion still goes on http://t.co/pf958gvBNT

@LondonerVince: Spanish press corps in Brussels report Eurogroup drafting list of extra measures

they want #Greece to implement as part of new programme.

Journalists have heard from sources that any final decision is unlikely to be taken tonight.

@traynorbrussels: #greece #eurogroup session in pause. nowhere near agreement. unlikely tonight.

could be passed to sunday summit - sources

@bopanc: #Eurogroup sources say meeting should be over by 10pm Brussels time (famous last

words) Two more meetings expected next week.

@c_ducourtieux: #Eurogroupe #Grèce: "certains veulent ouvrir la négo 3e plan ttdesuite et d'autres

FiMin, qui veulnt d'abord des réformes sur rails"sourceEU

Meanwhile, more and more sources report that Finland decided to veto any third programme. The

Finnish national broadcaster YLE said that, according to unnamed source, the country's government

does not consider the Greek proposal on its debt sufficient to start negotiations with Greece, Reuters

reports on its live blog. Greek SKAI TV quotes sources within Eurogroup saying that Finland

resists a new bailout, "even if it would remain alone within the opposition camp".  

@isabelleory: Selon la télé finlandaise, les Finlandais seraient prêts au veto contre programme

d'aide... #eurogroupe https://t.co/eMvNFbclma

@mariastenroos: Finland will block decision making on #Greece loan if needed. A definitive No.

#Yle #eurogroup

@mariastenroos: Source for Yle: Stubb's mandate from Finnish parliament is very narrow. In

practise means #Grexit. #eurogroup

@mariastenroos: As @J_Dijsselbloem said in the doorstep: We're not there yet. #eurogroup. A big

block of critical countries, including Fi, NL, Slovenia..

@KallergisK: Finland (too?) wants Greece out of the #eurozone - Source: MTV.fi

http://t.co/3zYkwR1AHU #Greece #GreekCrisis #eurogroup #rbnews #eurocrisis

@bopanc: Finish govt reportedly on verge of collapse as TrueFins threatened to leave coalition

rather than accept new #Greece bailout cc @alexstubb

On 11 Jul 2015, at 20:44, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- After 5 hours of talks, the Eurogroup is divided and seems to have reached a dead end,

several journalists following the talks are reporting. 

@isabelleory: Après 5 heures #Eurogroupe  divisé. Quelques pays soutiennent la Grèce,  dont la

France. Les autres expriment doutes et lassitude.

@mathieuvonrohr: Eurogroup seems divided https://t.co/pvND08lARz

@paulmasonnews: Upsum Eurogroup so far: Greece asked for more austerity; German Grexit plan

non-starter; @tsakalotos can’t sign without words on debt (1/2)

@paulmasonnews: (2/3) in other words the exact same situation as for 6 months. But Germans now

openly pushing for Grexit, IMF for debt relief, EU paralysed

@Simon_Nixon: Stand-off in eurogroup is between those willing to accept permanent fudge and

those who believe any third bailout of GR must be the last.

-- Süddeutsche Zeitung has seen the assessment by the Commission and the ECB saying that

Greece imperils the stability of the eurozone and therefore qualifies for ESM. They conclude

that - without ESM help - the financial risks would not be manageable, and the banks would

collapse. The paper calculated the financial gap for Greece for the next 3 years amounting to 74bn. 

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/pruefung-des-esm-antrags-kommission-und-ezb-

griechenland-ist-gefahr-fuer-gesamte-euro-zone-1.2561759

@YanniKouts: #ECB & #EU Commission conclude assessment on #Greece; point to systemic risk

in case of rejection of ESM request http://t.co/rnvDkDYdOq ~@SZ

-- As clarified by several media, Minister Schäuble's proposal was not voiced in the Eurogroup

itself, but a German position paper containing the proposal was handed over to eurozone

officials. "The issue of a Grexit has not been raised by anyone, including Schäuble, at the

Eurogroup meeting," a Greek government official told Reuters.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0PL0NI20150711?irpc=932

@Efkouts: Greek gov officials say that nobody, not even #Schauble put on table any #Grexit

proposal at today's #Eurogroup.

@StefanLeifert: Schäuble´s idea of a "Temporary Grexit" not yet discussed at Eurogroup meeting.

But paper exists and circulates. #Greece

@dannyctkemp: German finmin internal paper raised idea of five-year 'temporary Grexit' , but

wasn't raised at Eurogroup, source tells AFP

@ekathimerini: Schaeuble has not raised 'Grexit' at Eurogroup: Greek official

http://t.co/1ClZ9LCFd7 http://t.co/DKby8wqIPP

The SPD quickly reacted saying that the proposal doesn't not represent the official position of

Germany. EU sources also reacted quickly saying that suspending Greece from the euro is

"legally unfeasible". 

@schieritz: SPD leader suggests Schäuble's paper not German position https://t.co/EMMJPibUAc

@schneidercar: @FAZ_Wirtschaft @schieritz @faznet Es wird eine Einigung im Euro geben.

Scheinbar muss das #BMF seine Rolle a d Seitenlinie kompensieren.

@mathieuvonrohr: I think the harsh reaction by leading SPD deputy @schneidercar to that "5 year

Grexit" report is pretty telling. http://t.co/cptYb1zdxF

@Schuldensuehner: EU Official: Suspending #Greece From Euro Is Legally Unfeasible. (BBG)

Many journalists have started reflecting on the danger this proposal could inflict upon the

eurozone, while others argue that it is keeping Greece in the eurozone at all costs is in fact the

big danger. 

@nicolas_veron: Rebranding #Grexit as a "timeout" does not make it any less dangerous for the

Eurozone.

@Peston: Bemused that German fin min Schaeuble doesn't see that temporary Greek euro exit

would more surely destroy euro than permanent exit #Greece

@Peston: Bemused that German fin min Schaeuble doesn't see that temporary Greek euro exit

would more surely destroy euro than permanent exit #Greece

@MKarnitschnig: #Schäuble proposal to put #Greece in "timeout" would create a second

#eurozone tier. Call it purgatory.

@OwenJones84: If rumours of Germany wanting Greece out the euro followed by humanitarian

aid, ie third world status, then it is utterly grotesque

@Simon_Nixon: @Peston well he's been at heart of euro project for 50 yrs and clearly disagrees.

Maybe he thinks fudged Greek deal would destroy euro too?

-- Several Greek sources report that IMF advocated a "profound restructuring of the Greek debt", to

which several delegations opposed during the Eurogroup meeting. MEGA TV refers to a "request

for additional measures amounting to a total amount of 13.5 bn euros (instead of the originally

proposed 12 bn), including a timeplan for the elimination of VAT exemptions on islands and for the

implementation of all other measures as well as a commonly agreed programme of privatizations."

-- Meanwhile in Greece, SKAI TV confirms earlier rumours from within PM Tsipras' office in

relation to :

a) Government reshuffle early next week (replacing Ministers Lafazanis and Stratoulis who

declared "present" during the vote yesterday)

b) Actions for reconfirming confidence of SYRIZA MPs in the government; it is recalled that

SYRIZA internal organisation rules set out that dissenting members should take the initiative and

resign from their elected position.

Other rumours say that a new government of "specialised mission" should be appointed early

next week with a view to speeding up the implementation of some urgent measures and to passing

them through the Parliament until next October. Parliamentary elections are not excluded at that

time. 

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos

On 11 Jul 2015, at 19:11, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

Please note that social media are buzzing after the FAZ reported that Minister Schauble made a

proposal for a 5-year Grexit. 

His ministry rejected the Greek proposal as insufficient in a one-sided position paper sent to the

other euro countries. The proposals are missing fundamental area of reforms that could bring a

return to growth and sustainable development, the paper reportedly says. 

Two solutions were proposed by the German minister: 

- Greece improved its proposal quickly and substantially with the full support of the parliament;

- Greece leaves the euro temporarily (for at least 5 years) and restructures its debt. It remains a

member of the EU and in the meantime receives growth-enhancing, humanitarian and technical

assistance. 

http://m.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eurokrise/griechenland/eurofinanzminister-treffen-schaeuble-

bringt-grexit-auf-zeit-ins-gespraech-13697851.html

On Twitter journalists ask whether this position puts Minister Schauble in contradiction with

Chancellor Merkel. Reports are that the Greek delegation has denied that any proposals of a

temporary Grexit have been voiced in the Eurogroup. 

Sent from my iPhone using Mail+ for Enterprise

From: ramona.gabar@consilium.europa.eu

Sent: 11/07/15 16:32

Subject: Finance ministers prepared for tough talks, some sceptical about a positive result

Media seem to agree that the Greek proposal drew a lukewarm response from eurozone finance

ministers, as they gathered for talks in Brussels. 

President Dijsselbloem, FinMin Kazimir, FinMin Gramegna and FinMin Schelling are quoted

saying that there is a lack of trust that the Greek government can deliver on these commitments,

some of them also voicing concerns that the proposed measures do not go far enough. FinMin

Padoan said that today can only mark the beginning of negotiations. FinMin Schäuble was also very

outspoken and is widely quoted by the media saying that negotiations will be very tough. "We will

definitely not be able to rely on promises," he said when arriving at the talks in Brussels.

Several ministers cautioned that the best possible outcome of this weekend's meetings would be a go-ahead to Greece and the institutions to start negotiations on a full rescue package, which would include extra measures from Greece and the details of new financing, the WSJ reports. 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-needs-74-billion-in-fresh-funding-1436604139

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c8938b1c877542e2b8f6d73547bee29a/latest-finance-ministers-arrive-crunch-greek-talks

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/business/greece-debt-plan-at-next-crucial-stage-as-finance-ministers-meet.html?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimes

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-debt-crisis-eurozone-finance-ministers-warn-tsipras-may-have-to-compromise-further-as-they-arrive-for-key-brussels-talks-10382509.html

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/11/greek-debt-crisis-eurozone-creditors-meet-to-decide-countrys-fate?CMP=twt_gu&CMP=twt_gu

The major lack of trust is also very prominent on Twitter, as journalists say that it will be a main

issue today. 

@KazimirPeter: Debt Sustainability Analysis on #Greece is going to be a huge problem #eurozone

#ECB #IMF

@KazimirPeter: This is like 'time travel' - package would be enough for completion of 2nd

programme. Afraid this is not enough for 3rd package

@OpenEurope: Noonan: Referendum was political victory for Greek gov't, but was economically

and socially disastrous. #Greece

@BBCGavinHewitt: German Fin Min Schaeuble says Europe 'can't rely on promises' from Greece.

Anticipates 'extraordinarily difficult' negotiations.#Greece

@mathieuvonrohr: Schäuble, asked if €Z threatened as a whole: "Until now everyone said this isn't

the case. Commission has to explain their change of heart"

@d_daso: De Guindos: Everyone wants #Greece to remain in Eurozone, but we need to discuss

institutions' assessment of the Greek proposal

@ekathimerini: Austrian finance minister sees 60:40 chance of Greece deal

http://t.co/Y7XtP3VLYa http://t.co/ECdykbREVC

@TomMayerEuropa: die falken zu #greece sind die baltischen staaten, finnland, die slowakei.

schäuble dürfte sie am ende im tandem mit sapin #paris einfangen

@GeorgiGotev: Dombrovskis at #Eurogroup: We should discuss giving mandate to Commission in

liaison with ECB & IMF to start negotiations about ESM program

@mathieuvonrohr: It's becoming clear the main issue today are not the Greek proposals themselves

but lack of trust in the Greek government. #Eurogroup

@TomMayerEuropa: eurogruppe will von griech regierung garantien, dass maßnahmen umgesetzt

werden, alles schon mal dagewesen: finnland, slowakei besond. hart

A picture showing the financing needs of Greece, as calculated by the institutions, is being widely

shared on Twitter. 

@rdk_bxl: Rpt: financial needs of #Greece accordg to official assessment by EU-Com+ECB. Some

of calculated revenues uncertain http://t.co/2uNKHoWMfC

Sent from my mobile device

On 11 Jul 2015, at 12:56, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

Talking to eurozone sources, and also widely quoting the FAZ analysis of the institutions'

assessment (mentioned in my previous email), journalists say chances are the Eurogroup

discussion today will be long, complicated, with unpredictable outcome. Several areas will need

further consideration, as loopholes have been mentioned. 

@EdConwaySky: EU source: Will be tough meeting. Much scepticism among member states.

Mistrust & lack of confidence in Greeks after so many wasted months

@traynorbrussels: #greece caveats in troika paper such that if eurogroup's gonna nail this, it will

have to be a long night, a very big negotiation

@Schuldensuehner: 50-50 chance of Greek bailout deal, sources say ahead of #Eurogroup. (dpa)

@CSpillmann: #Grèce la tempête n'est pas terminée et naufrage encore possible  50% de chances

que passe #Eurogroupe (source #UE ) https://t.co/VGQm7Ug1qZ

@CSpillmann: #Grèce: besoins financiers réévalués par créanciers à 82 milliards d'euros "to be on

the safe side" (source #UE )

@isabelleory: @CSpillmann mais alors pourquoi proposer 74 milliards ?

@JSLefebvre: @isabelleory @CSpillmann Pour ménager la tension artérielle de Schäuble ?

@ManosGiakoumis: #Eurogroup Working Group meeting underway ahead of Eurogroup due at

3pm (CET). #Greece 3rd aid package seen at €78-84 bln (via @amna_news)

@Schuldensuehner: Creditors Say Greek Plan Not Enough to Meet Budget Target,  FAS reports.

@traynorbrussels: #greece 3-page troika paper backs tsipras plan, with ifs and

buts...http://t.co/flRjFRqGZR

Meanwhile, attention in the media seems to be shifting back to Germany, where public opinion

is reportedly very negative towards a new bailout. Political pressure puts Chancellor Merkel in a

difficult spot. The FT carries a piece saying that Ms Merkel faces a "lose-lose" choice on Greece.

"Merkel cannot risk political fragmentation at home by being seen as giving too much to

Athens, but the demands of shepherding Europe through a Grexit would also be steep,"

says Daniela Schwarzer, Berlin office director for the German Marshall Fund think-tank.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f0040a3a-26f5-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html?siteedition=intl

The WSJ writes that officials in Germany are mindful of a building political backlash here against

five years of bailouts for Athens, which local news media and economists increasingly characterize

as throwing good money after bad. Ms Merkel and her FinMin have left the door open to measures

such as extending maturities or reducing interest rates on past emergency loans to Greece that

would make the country's debt more sustainable. The key question, German officials say, isn't

whether Greece gets debt relief—but whether it takes enough other steps for debt relief to be a

concession worth making. Along similar lines, The Guardian writes: "Debt relief is unlikely to be

generous enough to make much of a difference. Greece will stay in the euro but the tax increases

and the wage cuts will not deliver the promised economic recovery. A third bailout package will be

no more successful than the past two. When the next episode in the crisis arrives, as it will, Greeks

will look back to the moment when their government had the choice between austerity and the euro

and wonder whether it made the right one."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-keeps-wiggle-room-on-greek-debt-1436559509

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/10/tsipras-greek-economy-sabre-purpose?

CMP=share_btn_tw

Merkel is faced with the most difficult decision of her chancellery, Der Spiegel writes. The chances

are slim that Greece can leave the crisis behind with the help of just one more aid package. Its

economy isn't strong enough and its government, which rejects the policies demanded by the

country's creditors, is standing in the way.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greece-tsipras-and-merkel-must-make-a-decision-a-

1043109.html

@uli_speck: Growing anger for having to transfer large sums while being blamed for Greece's

troubles may seriously undermine support for Euro in Germany

@uli_speck: A deal between Greece and the rest of the Eurozone depends on skillful anger

management. Merkel a master in that discipline.

Sent from my mobile device

On 11 Jul 2015, at 11:14, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- As more details emerge regarding the tone of the assessment given by the institutions, several

media report that conditionality has been expressed. "Under certain conditions, they jointly see the

proposals as a basis for negotiating an ESM programme", Ekathimerini and Reuters quote. 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/uk-eurozone-greece-institutions-basis-

idUKKCN0PL08120150711

The FAZ has seen the assessment and reports that the institutions are “cautiously positive”; they

want any new bailout programme to contain “structural benchmarks, milestones and quantitative

benchmarks” for the future. They add that the reforms are not enough to meet primary surplus

targets given the “significant deterioration in macroeconomic and financial conditions.”

http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/schuldenkrise-institutionen-griechische-vorschlaege-

grundlage-fuer-verhandlungen-13697403.html

The discussion in the Eurogroup is expected to be long, journalists tweet. Several aspects in the

proposal need substantial discussion. 

@straneuropa: "Troika says Greek proposal is ok to start the process. But Eurogroup'll be long.

Substantial discussion" (early morning source) @la_stampa

@YanniKouts: Institutions to #Eurogroup: 'Structural benchmarks, milestones and quantitative

benchmarks' will be needed to seal deal w #Greece ~@faznet

@nickkounis: FAS reporting creditors want #Greece to do more #Eurogroup

https://t.co/WGjD4uWlAf

@minefornothing: CREDITORS SAY GREEK PLAN NOT ENOUGH TO MEET BUDGET

TARGET: FAS

-- As support for a new bailout (or an understanding that it is the best option) is reportedly gaining

ground in Greece (a poll quoted today by journalists is showing a level of support of 75%), the rest

of the eurozone seems to be profoundly split on the matter. A graph published by Handelsblatt

shows that a negative or at best cautious stance prevails. 

@GeorgiGotev: 75% of Greeks say compromise with EU is needed while 21% urge Tsipras not to

back down and clash with creditors: new poll,@SarantisMich

-- Liberation published today a letter by 26 professors at the London School of Economics,

including Nobel winner Christopher Pissarides. The 26 lay down an action plan for regenerating

growth in Greece and avoiding the country's exit from the eurozone. 

A credible perspective regarding debt reduction, as well as commitment to structural reforms and an

easing of austerity are key elements in their proposal. 

http://www.liberation.fr/economie/2015/07/11/26-profs-de-la-london-school-of-economics-contre-

la-politique-d-austerite-menee-en-grece_1345979?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

-- CER analyses the legal aspects behind a potential Grexit and the risks of opening the treaties for

allowing such an event to happen. 

http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/thomas-cromwell-or-executioners-axe-options-grexit

Sent from my mobile device

On 11 Jul 2015, at 08:39, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

The Eurogroup received the assessment of the institutions of Greece's proposal. Spokesman Michel

Reijns tweeted some minutes ago, without further comments:

@MichelReijns: Assessment of institutions under Article 13 of the ESM Treaty and initial review

of the Greek proposals received bij #Eurogroup, meeting 3pm

Reuters has heard from a source close to the matter that the assessment was "positive", "making it

likely they will agree on Saturday to open talks on lending Athens tens of billions of additional

euros."

One eurozone source, who has been sceptical of the leftist government’s commitment to a new

reform program, said it was now “100 percent certain” the ministers would agree to launch

negotiations, Reuters adds. In the meantime, they will also consider short-term aid, as well as

debt rescheduling, "although the creditor governments insist they cannot legally write any off

entirely."

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/iduskcn0pk2kz20150711?irpc=932

Some journalists commenting on yesterday's vote in Greece say that the government narrowly

avoided losing parliamentary majority. 

@YanniKouts: #Greece | Conclusion:

-Bailout bill passes with s wide majority of 250 of 300 votes

-Gov't narrowly escapes collapse of coalition majority

Sent from my mobile device

On 10 Jul 2015, at 22:31, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- The draft bill was approved by a majority in the Committees earlier today (only the Communist

party and Golden Dawn voted against).

The discussion in the Plenary of the Hellenic Parliament is not expected to start before midnight in

Athens, since internal rules do not allow for the vote to take place on the same day in the Plenary

and in the Committees. The final decision is due to be taken by the Conference of Presidents which

meets now. Journalists think that the prospects look positive and the bill should pass. 

@YanniKouts: No info yet on when the crucial bailout vote will take place. Probably after

midnight. #Greece

@GeorgiGotev: Greek parliament 2 pass deal coz opposition forces will support it. But Tsipras to

resign if he gets less than 150 votes from his coalition

-- A poll conducted by the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV shows that 60% of voters are in

favour of Greece remaining in the eurozone, even if this would imply a new bailout and

austerity measures, against 28% supporting the return to drachma. The poll also shows that 36.5%

(against 30.5%) believe that the recent referendum worsened negotiating perspectives. 

-- In an op-ed in The Guardian, former minister Varoufakis argues that - since Syriza came to power

- Grexit has been the preferred outcome for many in the eurozone, especially for Germany.

"Schäuble is convinced that as things stand, he needs a Grexit to clear the air, one way or another.

Suddenly, a permanently unsustainable Greek public debt, without which the risk of Grexit would

fade, has acquired a new usefulness for Schäuble: he wants Greece to be pushed out of the single

currency to put the fear of God into the French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian

eurozone."

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-grexit?

CMP=share_btn_tw

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos 

On 10 Jul 2015, at 20:01, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

The Left Platform hard wing of Syriza decided to back PM Tsipras, The Telegraph, The Guardian

and the FT report among others. 

Earlier concerns that the government might be at risk of losing its parliamentary majority now look

to have been cleared. The bill looks likely to pass through parliament easily, and the government

should keep majority. 

Virtually all major media report that hundreds of people (some give impressive figures of several

thousands) took to the streets of Athens in a rally against austerity. However, The Guardian carries

a piece that argues that - despite disappointment - Greeks are resigned to the idea that the bailout

plan is the only solution. 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/10/greeks-resigned-to-bailout-plan-despite-voting-

against-austerity?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

While all eyes are on the Eurogroup, Peter Spiegel makes a comparison between Greece's reform

list and the creditors' proposal, highlighting some areas that may be at risk. The proposal may not be

enough for some eurozone ministers, and trust is also eroded, he says. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3970f0a-2709-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html#axzz3fVoL6GlI

Sent from my mobile device

On 10 Jul 2015, at 17:29, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

In an op-ed in the FT, FinMin Kazimir writes that an amicable split with Greece is not the worst

fate for eurozone. There are a few red lines in the negotiations, he says, and debt reduction is one of

them. He warns of the danger of missing an opportunity reinvent the eurozone, to fix mistakes, to

grow stronger. 

"Let us build up our institutions, pool our resources and respect our rules. And, most importantly,

let us do our homework. The Baltics, the Iberians, Ireland and Slovakia show that even small

countries on the eurozone’s geographical periphery can reform their economies and streamline their

budgets. Like us, the leaders of Greece must be bold and honest with their public as well."

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1b7053f8-26f2-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html?siteedition=intl

Meanwhile, Greek journalists estimate how today's vote in the parliament may affect political

stability and the survival of the government. 

@YanniKouts: #Greece gov't in risk of losing parl majority. They can afford up to 12 No votes. It

looks like No votes are now between 6 and 8.

@leonor_sierra: @YanniKouts Is it simple majority (151) they need? ND, Potami, Pasok=106, so

as long as they have 45 from Syr ok? or am I missing something?

@YanniKouts: @leonor_sierra The bill will pass. But if they don't get the minimum parl majority

votes from their own parties, gov't has to resign.

Sent from my mobile device

On 10 Jul 2015, at 16:42, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

To Vima reports from the Syriza meeting, which was marked by tension. Yanis Varoufakis,

Panayotis Lafazanis and three members of the party's Political Bureau have reportedly submitted a

draft motion against the proposal of the Greek government. Other sources confirm that the

resignation of Lafazanis from his post of Energy Minister is imminent. The INYT reports that the

motion says an exit from the eurozone is preferable if creditors cannot offer the country a deal

without austerity. The INYT - alongside some Greek media - adds that it is unclear how many

Syriza MPs were planning to vote against the proposal submitted last night. 

http://www.nytimes.com/live/greek-debt-crisis-live-updates/syriza-faction-expresses-opposition-to-

deal/?smid=tw-nytimesworld

@ekathimerini: Five SYRIZA MPs call on government to reject deal, choose Grexit #Greece

@FGoria: * Five hardline leftists in Greek ruling syriza say Greek Eurozone exit preferable to deal

with austerity and without debt relief - RTRS

@d_daso: #Syriza members and MPs who say "no" to the proposal -Leoutsakos, Ntavanelos,

Papadogianni, Lapavitsas, Petrakos-

@d_daso: Hardline leftists (MPs and members) in #Syriza say Grexit preferable to deal with

austerity http://t.co/fpAplWlWT9

In their interventions some of the SYRIZA members criticized the government for not having

prepared the country for a transition to a national currency and expressed their clear preference for

new parliamentary elections. 

Closing the meeting of Syriza bodies, PM Tsipras said: "Between a bad and a catastrophic

choice, we suggest to accept the bad one", Kathimerini quotes. 

To Vima reports on the main political parties' positions on the vote concerning the negotiations'

mandate to the government tonight: 

New Democracy: YES

To Potami: YES

PASOK: YES

"Independent Greeks" are going to resume their meeting later today, since their leader, Panos

Kammenos, is meeting now with the PM in an attempt to clarify their reservation about the

elimination of the tax exemptions for the islands and the reduced ceiling of military expenditure. 

There are still speculations that the Baltics will not bend and accept a new Greek bailout. “The feast

time at the expense of others is over for Greece,” President  Grybauskaite said in an interview on

state television and radio. “Eurozone countries are really not going to pay for the irresponsible

behavior of the new Greek government. Without serious commitments, there will definitely be no

assistance.”

PM Straujuma told a German radio station that one thing her government could not accept would be

a write-down of Greek debt.

Meanwhile Germany refrained from making any judgements, with government spokesman Seibert

saying: “We will wait until the institutions examine them and express their opinion." In a similarly

cautious tone, Martin Jäger, a spokesman for Minister Schäuble, said that the outcome of the

Eurogroup remained "completely open".  

The hashtag #ExplainNoToTspiras takes over Twitter, with many Greek people expressing anger

and disappointment with the unfolding of the events. Some call for PM Tsipras to resign. Others

call for street protests. The reverse reaction is also present, with many mainstream Greek journalist

calling on colleagues to end the game of humiliation and to be more supportive to PM Tsipras. 

@YanniKouts: Tsipras is defeated. Humiliating him now would be wrong. The Greek people would

consider that their own humiliation and a betrayal by Europe

@northaura: Many greek tweeps criticizing #Greece's gov decision to go to an agreement with new

measures under the eloquent #ExplainNoToTsipras

@NikiKitsantonis: Hard criticism of Greek proposal under tag #ExplainNoToTsipras. 'No' voters

conflicted abt joining protest that wd be de facto antigov rally

@GreekAnalyst: Greek tweeterers embark on campaign to #explainNoToTsipras. Seems like his

(potential) turn towards pragmatism disappointed many. Good!

Rating agencies have release some worrying reports, with Moody's saying that Greek banks could

run out of deposits by Sunday, and Fitch saying that a Grexit is now the most probable outcome,

The Guardian and The Telegraph report. 

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos

Sent from my mobile device

On 10 Jul 2015, at 14:31, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

FinMin Kazimir, who has voiced some of the most critical stances towards Greece in the past

weeks, seems to have waded in. His latest tweets are somewhat optimistic. This is seen by

journalists on Twitter as an important signal towards progress of negotiations. 

@KazimirPeter: It seems we have progress on #Greece. It's still not clear whether this will be

enough and no further frontloading will be needed #Eurozone

@KazimirPeter: Following latest developments, listening to #Greece govt officials one can wonder

how quickly can caterpillar turn into butterfly #Eurozone

However, the mood has not improved everywhere in Europe. PM Straujuma, during a radio

intervention today, warned that the Greek proposal may not survive a vote in Latvia's parliament.

“It will be very hard for me to persuade the parliament. And for the parliament it will be difficult to

vote for it, because the average Pension in Latvia is considerably less than in Greece, and if you

were to ask the Latvians today whether they are willing to lend money to Greece, you can probably

guess what their answer would be.” She added that similar concerns are currently expressed in

Estonia and Lithuania. 

Wolfgang Munchau writes that the Greek proposal sows division in Europe and that the eurozone's

moment of truth will come this weekend. He says that a deal is not at all secure and analyses

Germany's difficult position and great responsibility in the matter. The numbers will probably not

add up after the institutions' assessment, he says, so one side will have to back down there. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a60ca1fc-26e2-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html?

ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fcomment%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct

Hugo Dixon makes a similar prediction, describing the areas where the institutions may request

changes to the tabled proposal (primary surplus, labour reforms, among others). He says that, in

sum, Tsipras’ proposals are a good basis to renew talks. But they may be toughened up with more

short-term and medium-term measures to make them acceptable to creditors. Whether Tsipras is

then still prepared to do a deal is uncertain and time is running out.

http://hugo-dixon.com/2015/07/10/when-no-mean-yes-but-still-wont-be-enough/

Meanwhile in Athens, as the parliament prepares to convene and vote the proposal, there seems to

be solid cross-party support for it, although some MPs have declared they will not support the

proposal. PM Tsipras has warned his colleagues at the Syriza meeting today that rejecting the

proposal will have dramatic consequences for Greece. 

Opposition party leader Stavros Theodorakis of centrist To Potami has predicted a "large majority"

of lawmakers will approve the government's proposals to creditors in a crucial vote later, The

Telegraph reports. He added a meeting with  President Juncker today left him with the sense that the

international creditors feel the Greek proposals are "moving in the right direction."

@YanniKouts: Looks like ND, Potami & PASOK wll vote Yes for govt's bailout bill. Only the

Communists, the neo-Nazis & [any] Syriza dissidents wll vote No

@YanniKouts: Tsipras (at Syriza mtng): [A rift] wouldn't just mean Grexit, it would mean the

complete implosion of the country. #Greece

@NikiKitsantonis: Parl debate on Greek proposal at 7pm + anti-austerity rally 7.30. Even if Tsipras

can restrain party machine, 'no' voters to be out in force

Sent from my mobile device

On 10 Jul 2015, at 10:57, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- Scepticism (or at least a certain level of cautiousness) is being voiced in Germany, the FT

reports among others. Two top MPs in the CDU/CSU bloc questioned today the credibility of the

Greek government and its proposals.

Ralph Brinkhaus, a CDU deputy chief whip, told German television on Friday that the plans now

put forward were exactly the same as what the Greek government had until recently condemned

and what the Greeks rejected in last Sunday’s referendum. “In this sense, it’s really a question

about their credibility.” Hans Peter Friedrich, a CSU deputy chief whip and known sceptic on

Greece, said in a radio interview: “There are two possibilities. Either the Greek government is

tricking its own people. Or it is tricking us.” Meanwhile, the SPD seems to be moderately optimistic

about the proposal.

More optimistic signals come from France, where President Hollande described the Greek

proposal as "serious and credible". The timing of his remark has been criticised by several

analysts, who point out that the institutions' assessment has to come first.

 

-- Meanwhile, in Greece, contradictory signals come from Syriza, where several MPs have

declared their opposition to the deal. Analysts predict an interesting debate in the parliament later

today (some report that the plenary session has been postpones for tomorrow).

 

The Greek Analyst @GreekAnalyst  38m38 minutes ago

.@kzoulas reports that the Plenary Session in the Parliament was postponed for tomorrow (!) #GreeceView conversation9 retweets0 favorites

Nick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis  20m20 minutes agoSYRIZA MP Vitsas: "We want clear reference to debt relief & a commitment from lenders to begin discussing this from October" #Greece #euro32 retweets8 favoritesNick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis  2h2 hours agoSome questions: Will MPs be able to vote tonight? Will SYRIZA rebels give up Parl't seats, as pledged? #Greece #euro Yannis Koutsomitis @YanniKouts  31m31 minutes ago

Varoufakis is said to reject reform proposal. Oh well...92 retweets43 favorites

Nick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis  19m19 minutes ago

SYRIZA MP Vitsas "Atmosphere in parliamentary group is fine. We're all working for an agreement" #Greece #euro24 retweets4 favorites

A Evans-Pritchard @AmbroseEP  49m49 minutes ago

Left Platform Lafazanis and ANEL boss Kammenos not happy. Greece may be heading for national unity govt of some sort. Big role for Potami?32 retweets5 favorites

The Greek Analyst @GreekAnalyst  38m38 minutes ago

ND @nkaklamanis: "New Democracy has a clear stance, it will support Greece to remain in Europe, even if it incurs a cost for the party."View conversation9 retweets3 favorites

 

 

From: GABAR Ramona Sent: Friday, July 10, 2015 10:27 AMSubject: Greece update: Optimism regains in Athens, while journalists in Europe remain cautious | Legal procedure for approval of new proposal by Greek parliament 

-- In a rather unique process that has never been used in the past for similar purposes, the government submitted a draft law containing just one article, by which the Parliament mandates the PM, the Vice-President of the Government, the Finance Minister and the Minister seconded to the PM to negotiate with their homologues the final conditions for the bailout agreement. The negotiating team is also mandated to conclude the Convention with the ESM for the financing of public debt for the period from 1 July 2015 to 30 June 2018 and for the negotiation of measures to be taken for the sustainability of the long-term debt.

The draft law is expected to be approved today in the Parliament. Journalists consider that in the event of some dissidents within SYRIZA, their number will not be over ten. Defence Minister Kammenos and Minister of Energy Lafazanis did not put their signature on the draft Law; it is though premature to draw negative conclusions as regards the position of the "Independent Greeks" party, since Kammenos was the first to support publicly the proposals at the end of the Government Council.  

-- In the explanatory memorandum, the Government believes that the envisaged agreement differs from the second bailout program, since it is extended to a medium-term perspective (2015-2018) and refinances the public debt beyond 2015. It will allow a partial restructuring of the public debt for the three next years (total needs amount to 53,5 bn euros), since it is refinanced by the ESM and thus its disbursement is postponed in time. Moreover, the "debt becomes a European one" and will be regulated by the EU Treaties.

Other important arguments referred to in the explanatory memorandum, as highlighted by Greek media, are:

a) The capital re-consolidation of the Greek banking sector;

b) The support for growth, notably through the European Commission "Investment Plan".

The text says also that the technical agreement, which will be annexed to the bailout deal, "has already been elaborated by the European Commission and Greece" and once adopted in its final form, it will submitted to the Parliament together with the bailout agreement.  

 

 

Meanwhile, journalists and analysts commenting on Twitter voice their reservations, wondering whether the proposal is enough to win support from the Eurozone. Notably in Germany, public opinion still seems hostile. Other journalists still comment (as many did last night immediately after the proposal went public) that the conditions are even tougher for Greece than the ones rejected in the referendum.

Yannis Koutsomitis @YanniKouts  2h2 hours ago#Germany Deputy CSU caucus leader Friedrich: “Greek government is either cheating their own people or us again.” ~BBG | #Greece70 retweets11 favoritesDuncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon  42m42 minutes ago2. But if Greece has capitulated on the reforms, it's not a total climb down. They are asking for years of financing in return not months.40 retweets12 favoritesVincenzo Scarpetta @LondonerVince  46m46 minutes agoMost importantly, why hold a referendum and then agree to pretty much the same proposal rejected by over 61% of Greek voters? #Greece29 retweets17 favoritesThe Greek Analyst @GreekAnalyst  26m26 minutes agoOK peeps. Let's stop talking about a *deal* yet. We're not there, yet. Hopefully we will. Monumental 72 hours ahead. DON'T JINX IT. #Greece17 retweets28 favoritesAndrew Neil @afneil  27m27 minutes agoGreece has sent Brussels an austerity package tougher than the one rejected in the referendum. Syriza: what was the point?86 retweets44 favoritesPeter Spiegel @SpiegelPeter  9m9 minutes agoPost-sleep: #Greece VAT/pension plan almost identical to June troika plan. Good enuf for 3yr prog? Does Berlin trust @atsipras to implement?28 retweets9 favoritesHolger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner  55m55 minutes agoGerman CDU lawmaker Fuchs says has a little bit of problem w/ trusting Greek proposal. (RTRS) #Grexit11 retweets5 favoritesA Evans-Pritchard @AmbroseEP  23m23 minutes ago

Greek ball is now in German court. Either Merkel agrees to (serious) debt relief and Bundestag backs it, or Grexit + default + EMU fiasco68 retweets18 favorites

A Evans-Pritchard @AmbroseEP  39m39 minutes ago

Syriza has accepted terms rejected by the Greek people in the Referendum. Unless he gets debt

relief, can't see how he can sell this114 retweets45 favorites

Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon  48m48 minutes ago4. Seems likely that *if* the Greeks carry out the reforms offered, some kind of maturity

extension/rate cut is possible.24 retweets7 favorites

  

Another insightful comment on the future of the Eurozone comes from BBC's Duncan Weldon today:

Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon  39m39 minutes ago

10. Whatever happens now, Eurozone will be reformed. We may see a French vision competing

against the German one. Fascinating times ahead.35 retweets18 favorites

 Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos

 Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the writer and may not be regarded as stating an official position of the Council of the EU

Clause de non-responsabilité: Les avis exprimés n'engagent que leur auteur et ne peuvent être considérés comme une position officielle du Conseil de l'UE

 

From: GABAR Ramona Sent: Friday, July 10, 2015 12:50 AMSubject: Greek proposal: first comments 

Greece's proposal for the institutions has been published online:

http://www.amna.gr/english/articleview.php?id=10546

http://www.hellenicparliament.gr/UserFiles/c8827c35-4399-4fbb-8ea6-aebdc768f4f7/9292390.pdf

 

First comments by journalists are that it is strikingly similar to the one previously tabled by the

Commission and rejected in the referendum. Some also voice scepticism that the proposal is enough

for a new deal. Peter Spiegel has noticed the proposal says nothing about debt relief and has

curiously heard that the one submitted to Parliament has a passage on debt relief. 

@SpiegelPeter: One thing that strikes me about new #Greece request: It's pretty darn close to the

one 61% of Greeks voted "#OXI" against.

@MehreenKhn: Wow, Greeks have agreed nullify previous court ruling which said 40pc pension

cuts were unconstitutional http://t.co/EkepVtYyI0

@jujikucz: Comme attendu, le plan de réformes proposé par gouv #Grece est celui contre lequel il a

fait voter 61% de Grecs. Rares différences minimes.

@SpiegelPeter: With a quick read, new #Greece proposal appears to move closer to creditors on

VAT &  pension reforms. But was pre-June 30 creditor position

@SpiegelPeter: New #Greece proposal appears to meet creditor demands for phasing out pension

system's "solidarity grant" by 2019

@SpiegelPeter: New #Greece proposal far less ambitious on military cuts. Only €100m this year,

€200m next. Creditors sought €400m

@DuncanWeldon: Can't emphasise enough: 1. Debt level is a long term problem for Greece. 2. In

the short term interest costs are v low. 1/2

@BrunoBrussels: New Greek government within 2 to 3 months based on these prior actions -

Greeks appear to have voted No to say Yes

http://t.co/AS31ljhnEs

@SpiegelPeter: Just re-read @atsipras & @tsakalotos letters, plus prior actions. I see no mention of

debt relief. Acknowledgement that comes later? #Greece

@SpiegelPeter: Tweeps telling me Greek document submitted to parliament has section on debt

relief. I have version sent to creditors. Not in there. #Greece

@ObsoleteDogma: @SpiegelPeter What are the differences between this and the creditors’

proposal? VAT exception for small islands only, smaller military cuts

@SKalyvas: I've written "Tsipras concedes" too many times before. Won't believe it until it actually

happens

@NickMalkoutzis: Doc submitted to Greek Parl't states proposal better than 1 rejected in

referendum 'cos of debt relief & it secures mid-term funding #Greece

@Hugodixon: 1 Big flaw in Greek proposal is it assumes same measures that would have produced

1% surplus 2 weeks ago will still produce 1% surplus

@Hugodixon: 2 My guesstimate is past 2 weeks destroyed 4% GDP & added 2% to deficit. To

counteract that would require another €3.5bn of measures

@Hugodixon: 3 creditors now have to either a) pretend damage didn't occur b) ask for €3.5bn more

austerity or c) allow Greece to run primary deficits

@Hugodixon: 4 Presumably reason fiscal targets for 2015-2017 are in brackets is because Greece

realises its numbers don't add up

@Hugodixon: 5 Tsipras is prostrating himself before the creditors with this offer & asking for

mercy

@CSpillmann: “@quatremer: Maintenant, tout est entre les mains de l'Allemagne. C'est pas gagné

selon mes sources françaises…. #Grèce”

@Suanzes: Is this enough for a deal? Honestly, I don't know

 

One interesting snap comment that is not related to the proposal itself:

@DuncanWeldon: Important aspect of the Greek crisis over last week or so: the return of an

assertive, independent, left leaning France as a Eurozone actor.

More in-depth comments will be analysed in our regular products tomorrow. 

 

On 09 Jul 2015, at 23:17, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

President Juncker's chief of cabinet Selmayr now confirms receipt of document, but refrains from

further details, as does spokesman for President Dijsselbloem. However, some rumours are that

initial assessment is "not negative" (confirms what To Vima reported earlier).

@MartinSelmayr: Now received. Signed. Three institutions will now assess. #withJuncker

@MichelReijns: No further comment from the PEG side until the institutions have finished their

assessment. #Eurogroup on Saturday 11 July

@YanniKouts: Initial reaction by the Institutions to #Greece's reform proposal was 'not negative':

Greek officials via @doleross

 

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos 

Sent from my mobile device

On 09 Jul 2015, at 22:56, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

Mystery surrounding distribution of Greek proposal has been solved: the letter was sent, but it lacks

signature from PM Tsipras, Commission spokesman hints. 

@MartinSelmayr: Signed letters are needed.

@CSpillmann: #Grèce proposition de réformes arrivée chez @J_Dijsselbloem mais pas endossée

par lettre signée par @tsipras_eu annonce @MartinSelmayr

@isabelleory: Bon visiblement les Européens ont reçu des propositions anonymes...

https://t.co/8DKBJx7m2F

@JarnoHa: The Greek letter containing list of reforms was not signed? https://t.co/KqGBQxAgRM

Of course this prompted a lot of ad-hoc humour from journalists.

@mathieuvonrohr: Frantic search for a scanner starts in Athens https://t.co/eEjeiOqY0w

@YanniKouts: @mathieuvonrohr Or Panos Kammenos boards a Greek Air Force F-16 and flies the

signed letters in subsonic speed to Brussels.

@spignal: A scanner! A scanner! My bailout for a scanner! https://t.co/IdBBmFUoDe

 

On a more serious note, little details emerged yet regarding the content of the proposal. As reported

by several media, Greek sources from the banking sector note that the total amount of estimated

additional tax revenues and savings amounts to 13,5 bn euros and confirm the request for a 3-year

bailout deal (until December 2018) covering financing needs of more than 61 bn euros. In its

electronic edition, "To Vima" informs that in a teleconference concluded a while ago with

Presidents Juncker and Dijseelbloem, EU institutions provided positive comments on the

proposals. Following these first signs, the government submitted the text to the Hellenic Parliament.

 

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos

Sent from my mobile device

On 09 Jul 2015, at 22:26, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- While many journalists and his own spokesman report that President Dijsselbloem received the

Greek proposal (a 10-page document, as reported by Greek media), Commission spokesperson

tweets they did not get the document yet. 

@YanniKouts: #Greece reforms' proposal sent to the Institutions and #Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem

~official

@SpiegelPeter: #Eurozone authorities say they have received the #Greece economic reform

proposal

@MartinSelmayr: .@SpiegelPeter Not yet.

@MichelReijns: New Greek proposals received by #Eurogroup president @J_Dijsselbloem,

important for institutions to consider these in their assessment

@chiaradef: Proposals from #greece landed in Brussels

@FGoria: * Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem receives new Greek proposals - spokesman - RTRS

 

-- SKAI TV confirms that tomorrow the Hellenic Parliament, through an extraordinary and urgency

procedure, will examine the proposals in Committee and in the Plenary, and give the mandate to the

government to use them as the basis for the discussions in Eurogroup and in the Eurozone Summit. 

There are also others who report that the proposal will be submitted to Parliament only after

approval by institutions. 

@YanniKouts: As @LSpyropoulou tells me, Greek gov't is going to wait for green light from

Institutions before they'll submit reform package to parliament.

Sent from my mobile device

On 09 Jul 2015, at 21:36, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

While the proposal of the Greek government was reportedly sent to the institutions minutes ago, the

dominant tone of voice in the mainstream media is constantly becoming more positive. 

Greek deal in sight, The Telegraph writes. Les Echos describes a marathon by Greek officials to

get the proposal on the table (also showing their determination to get a deal), but also from French

authorities multiplying diplomatic efforts to gain support for the proposal. Athens accepts harsh

austerity as bailout deal nears, The Guardian writes. The Greek government capitulated

on Thursday to demands from its creditors for severe austerity measures in return for a

modest debt write-off, raising hopes that a rescue deal could be signed at an emergency

meeting of EU leaders on Sunday. Parliament is expected to endorse the package after a

frantic few days of negotiation. With the support of officials from the French finance

ministry, Greek negotiators are believed to have accepted the need for VAT rises and

rules blocking early retirement as the price of a deal. 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/09/greece-debt-crisis-athens-accepts-harsh-

austerity-as-bailout-deal-nears

http://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/021198929010-athenes-entame-un-marathon-pour-eviter-le-

grexit-avec-lappui-de-bruxelles-1136060.php#xtor=RSS-52

The optimism was also fed by a softening stance regarding debt relief from Germany.

Chancellor Merkel said a classic haircut is out of the question, but tacitly opened the door to other

forms of debt restructuring, conceding that it had already been done in 2012 by stretching out

maturities, The Telegraph writes. Minister Schäuble said the possibility of some kind of debt

relief would be discussed over coming days, although he cautioned it may not provide

much help, The Guardian reports. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11730086/Greek-deal-in-sight-as-Germany-bows-

to-huge-global-pressure-for-debt-relief.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The government is preparing to rush the proposal through parliament as early as Friday, the

FT reports among others. Greece’s cabinet approved the plan, which includes increases in value

added tax and savings from public pensions demanded by creditors, the paper adds. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2230b2ec-260b-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html?siteedition=intl

 

Some media pretend they have seen the proposal prepared by the Greek government and argue that there is a big problem: supposedly there are no pension cuts (contrary to what the FT has learned, as said above). The plan may not be "capitulatory" enough, some warn. I have not found a link to the supposed leaked proposal, so I don't know how reliable it is. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/greek-compromise-proposal-leaked-and-there-may-

be-problem

 

Greek media also report that the proposal could be put to vote in Parliament already tomorrow.

It is unclear though under which form (declaration?) such a vote could take place. 

This endeavour is considered to be a clear sign of the "strong political will across parties for

implementation of the measures".

Some journalists doubt that the government could proceed in that way, thus preceding any

Eurogroup position.

The President of Hellenic Parliament, Zoi Konstantopoulou has been called to Maximos Mansion

(PM Office) this evening for discussions on the time-schedule for the approval of the bailout

programme.

The personal position of the President on the approval itself remains a mystery. 

"Kathimerini" considers that the Parliament could remain open during the weekend.  

 

Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos 

Sent from my mobile device

On 09 Jul 2015, at 20:41, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:

-- In a long interview with Mediapart, a senior advisor to the Greek government, who has been at

the heart of the negotiations, describes the supposed extraordinary bullying of Greece’s government

by the creditors. The recollections include a reported threat by President Dijsselbloem to cause the

collapse of the Hellenic banks if the government failed to sign-up to a drastic austerity programme,

and also by Minister Schäuble, who he says demanded: "How much money do you want to leave

the euro?" The advisor also claims that supposed declarations made at the Eurogroup can never be

proved true or false, because there are no minutes of the meetings. "So everybody can come out and

say anything they like." He said he advocated taking their legal case to the EUropean Court of

Justice, but now it is too late for that. "Let the whole world know the eurozone is committing a

crime against humanity", he wanted to show. 

http://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/international/080715/we-underestimated-their-power-greek-

government-insider-lifts-lid-five-months-humiliation-and-blackm?onglet=full

 

-- Commissioner Moscovici has written a blogpost where he says that a Greek exit is not the

solution, but rather helping Greece making its way back to Europe. 

@pierremoscovici: Excommunier #Grèce n'est pas la solution. Au contraire la ramener vers l'#