Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013

Greater ManchesterQuarterly Economic SurveyQ4 2013

WELCOMEPhil Cusack President

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEYDr John Ashcroft Chief Economist

COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR

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-3.0

-2.5

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0.0

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GDP % q/q QES Composite Leading Indicator

EMPLOYMENT TRACKER

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80 -10,000

-5,000

0

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QES Employment Tracker GM JSA (SA) q/q

INFLATION TRACKER

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0

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QES Inflation Tracker Inflation (CPI)

UK SALES

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Manufacturing Services

UK SALES (PRODUCTION)

Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13-40

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0

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80

Manufacturing Construction Broad measure

UK ORDERS

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EXPORT SALES

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EXPORT ORDERS

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EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING

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Employment (this quarter) Employment (forecast)

EMPLOYMENT IN SERVICES

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Employment (this quarter) Employment (forecast)

MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE

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Turnover Profitability

SERVICES CONFIDENCE

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Turnover Profitability

INVESTMENT IN PLANT & MACHINERY

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INTENTIONS TO INCREASE PRICES

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COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR

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-3.0

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GDP % q/q QES Composite Leading Indicator

International Perspectives 2014

January 2014

GDP % 2013 2014

Greece -3.7 -0.4

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4

Unemployment latest (Nov) 26.9%

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4

GDP % 2013 2014

Italy -1.8 0.4

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4


GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4

GDP % 2013 2014

Portugal -1.80.4

Spain -0.3 0.6

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4

Unemployment latest (Nov)Spain 26.7% Portugal 15.5%

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4

GDP % 2013 2014

Ireland -0.1 1.6

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6


GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6

GDP % 2013 2014

France 0.2 0.8

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8


GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8 GDP % 2013 2014

Germany 0.5 1.8 Unemployment latest (Nov) 5.2%

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8

GDP % 2013 2014

Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland -1.1 0.4

GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8Belgium 0.1 0.9Holland -1.1 0.4

Unemployment latest (Nov)Belgium 8.4%Holland 6.9%


U rate latest (Nov) Denmark 6.9% Sweden 8.0% Norway 3.3% Finland 8.4% GDP % 2013 2014

Denmark 0.41.4

Sweden 0.9 2.5 Norway 1.9 2.2 Finland -0.9 1.0

GDP 2013 2014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3

GDP 20132014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3


Unemployment LatestEuro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%



Youth unemployment



Youth unemploment

EU Zone 24.2%Spain 57.7%Portugal 54.8%Croatia 49.7%

North America2013 2.0%2014 2.5%

Asia Pacific

2013 4.6% 2014 4.7%

Western Europe

2013 0.0% 2014 1.3%

Eastern Europe

2013 1.9% 2014 2.8%

Latin America

2013 2.6% 2014 2.9%

The World in 2014

MENSA

2013 3.7% 2014 4.1%

MENSAEgyptIsraelSaudi ArabiaNigeriaS Africa

United Kingdom

2013 2.0% 2014 2.5%

4.5% 7.5%

2.5%

2.8%

2.9%

6.0% 6.9%

2.5% 2.5%

MINT Mexico 2.9%Indonesia 6.0%Nigeria 6.9%Turkey 4.5%

BRICBrazil 2.8%Russia 2.5%India 4.5%China 7.5%

North America

15%

Asia Pacific

15%

Western Europe

50%

Eastern Europe

6%

Latin America

1%

The World in 2014 - UK Direction of Trade Stats

MENSA

7%

Based on 2012 ONS data

MINT

2%

BRIC

8%

International Perspectives 2014

January 2014

Ten Predictions for 2014

January 2014

Ten Predictions for 2014

World trade growth is expected to recover from an average 2.8% in 2013 to a trend rate of growth of around 5% over the next two years.

World Trade Growth

UK GDP Growth

UK GDP growth for 2013 will berevised up to 2% in the year.

We expect growth of 2.5% in 2014rising to 2.7% in the following year.

UK Inflation CPI basis

Unemployment Claimant Count

Unemployment - LFS Rate

Average Earnings

International Trade

Government Borrowing

Sterling Exchange Rates

Gilt Yields

Base Rates

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

ACTION FOR BUSINESSChris Fletcher Director of Policy & Communications

2014 Overview

• Events programme – QES, QEF, A4B Forums, Council

• Increase and develop the quality of business thought leadership , member opinion and engagement

• Planned activity throughout 2014

2014 – Current action

• Late payment consultation – short survey for feedback on government consultation

• Zero Hours Contracts – government consultation

2014 – Major themes and issues

• Cost of doing business - minimum wage vs living wage

• Transport – rail, road, aviation• Energy• Business Bank• Trade• Elections and Referendums

2014 – Key Dates

• Surveys - QES, March, June, September, November

- Trade Survey , Feb- Labour Market, May- Business Environment, October

2014 – Key Dates

• Elections and Referendums- European Elections, May- Scottish Referendum, September- General Election, May 2015

2014 – Key Dates

• Events- 42 A4B events in 10 areas- Sector events and seminars, Business leaders,

Women in Business- Great Manchester Business Conference 21st March- Annual Dinner, 15th May- QES Briefings - Quarterly Economic Forecasts- Policy & Campaign Committee, Chamber Council

2014 – Online

www.gmchamber.co.ukwww.gmchambereconomics.com

http://www.gmchamber.co.uk/

http://www.gmchambereconomics.com/

CLOSING REMARKSPhil Cusack President

THANK YOU

Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013

Documents

Transcript of Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013