SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i

Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan Socio-Economic Profile Executive Summary

October 2017

PREPARED BY Urban Strategies Inc. and HDR for the Ministry of Transportation

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Prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. and HDR for the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in support of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Transportation Plan.

The Ontario Ministry of Transportation is developing a long-term and comprehensive transportation plan for the GGH.

A functioning, efficient, and well-planned transportation system is vital to keep the population and economy of the GGH moving.

To support the development of the GGH transportation plan, it is important to build an understanding of how the GGH transportation system has evolved in the past and how its needs might change in the future.

This executive summary provides an overview of the socio-economic profile of the GGH which is a foundational input to the GGH transportation plan.

> Cover Image: Downtown KitchenerSource: Tom1973 (Wikimedia)

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Executive Summary

This report provides an overview of the current and evolving socio-economic context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). It includes an overview of the geography, population, industry, and land use of the region and describes the GGH’s role as an economic engine in Ontario and Canada. The region has seen and will continue to see considerable population growth, primarily through immigration. That said, the distribution of growth throughout the region will shift over time, including where concentrations of employment are located, with consequent impacts on transportation planning.

People

The total population of the GGH in 2015 was 9.5 million. According to the 2011 Census, 40% of the region’s total population is comprised of immigrants, at approximately 3.8 million people. As a highly diverse region, the GGH is home to residents representing over 200 different ethnic groups. Net migration is by far the largest driver of population growth in the GGH. A large and diverse Indigenous community also lives in the region. According to the 2011 National Household Survey, 38% of the total Indigenous population in Ontario lives in the GGH. The Ontario Indigenous population is made up of primarily First Nations and Métis peoples. 133 First Nations communities are located in Ontario, of which nine are in the GGH. Most Métis communities are affiliated with the Métis Nation of Ontario, which has four regions and 13 community councils in the GGH.

> Pearson Airport Toronto - Approximately 40% of the GGH population is comprised of immigrants from countries around the world.

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The demographic profile of the GGH’s population is changing; the population is aging, and mobility issues affecting people’s transportation needs are increasing.. Labour force growth is expected to slow up until 2041 because of less growth in the working age population and greater growth in the non-working age population, especially older adults. The proportion of Ontario’s population in their prime working years is forecasted to decline from 70% in 2011 to 59% in 2050. This will pose a significant financial challenge to the region, as revenues from a smaller labour force will need to support services for a growing and aging population.

Economy

The GGH is frequently referred to as the economic engine of Ontario and the largest economic engine in Canada. In 2015, the GGH accounted for 64% of population, 66% of employment, and 68% of total GDP in Ontario. The region’s economy is transitioning in response to global economic restructuring and other changes, such as increased automation and the growth of the sharing economy, both of which are impacting the nature of work

in the region and beyond. Routine jobs (i.e. back office and administrative functions) are most directly impacted by automation. Industries such as finance, manufacturing, and law are undergoing their own transformations as they increasingly automate processes.

There are nearly 4.6 million jobs (in 2015) in the GGH located throughout the region in both rural and urban areas. Economic restructuring in the GGH is characterized by a shift to higher-value-added activities including a shift to knowledge-intensive activities. Despite the significant increases in high-skilled employment, there has also been an increase in work such as cleaning, construction, and food services as these jobs are not suitable for off-shore employment. These jobs are often of varied hours and more dispersed throughout the region, presenting a challenge to provide efficient and affordable transportation choices.

FIGURE 1. Share of the GGH in the Ontario Economy

50.0%

Population Total Empl.

2001 2015

ManufacturingEmpl.

FinanceEmpl.

Prof. ServicesEmpl. GDP

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

This figure shows the GGH’s share of Ontario’s population, total employment and employment in key economic sectors, and GDP for 2001 and 2015. The GGH accounts for more than half of Ontario’s economy and that the share increased over the period of 2001 to 2015 across all socio-economic metrics considered.

Source: Population calculations are based on Statistics Canada data for census divisions and census metropolitan areas. Employment calulations are based on data for GGH census metropolitan areas from Statistics Canada and employment data for GGH from: “Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041. Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum”, June 2013, Hemson Consulting, Appendix B – Section 1, Table 1, page 62.

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FIGURE 2. Industry Employment Shares in GGH, 2001 and 2015

Public administration [91]

Other services [81]

Accommodation and food services [72]

Information, culture, recreation [51,71]

Health care and social assistance [62]

Educational services [61]

Business support services [55-56]

Professional services [54]

Finance, insurance, real estate [52-53]

Transportation and warehousing [48-49]

Wholesale and retail trade [41,44-45]

Manufacturing [31-33]

Construction [23]

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%

2001 2015

While manufacturing has seen a substantial drop in its share of GGH employment, the share of most service industries has increased.

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0131 (sum of employment in GGH CMAs).

Land Use

While about half of the homes in the GGH are single-detached dwellings, municipalities are planning for a greater range and mix of housing options, including affordable housing in line with provincial policy, such as the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2017). The Growth Plan establishes a regional growth structure comprising 25 urban growth centres, a built-boundary and designated greenfield areas to reduce sprawl, protect valuable natural and agricultural resources, and plan for more complete, transit-supportive and compact communities. Growth Plan policies require municipalities to direct growth to settlement areas and prioritize intensification, with a focus on strategic growth areas, including urban growth centres and major transit station areas, as well as brownfield sites and greyfields.

> Municipalities have begun to plan for greater intensification and housing diversity in line with provincial policy.

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Over ¾ of jobs within the GGH are located within the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and almost 1/3 (28%) are focused within four large employment zones within and ringing the City of Toronto: downtown Toronto, the area surrounding Pearson International Airport, the area surrounding the Highway 404/407 interchange, and the area from the intersection of Highways 400 and 407 east to Keele Street and south to Toronto. Other than downtown Toronto, these employment areas are not well connected to existing and planned transit and have a very high auto mode share. This creates a challenge for employees to get to work, for the movement of goods to and from these areas, and for the continued development of these areas as economic generators. These

employment areas have traditionally been low-density, yet some are beginning to intensify or have the potential for intensification that could facilitate more urban, transit-supportive and amenity rich environments.

Other employment in the GGH is spread throughout the region, including in the downtowns in each city (in particular in Mississauga, Hamilton, Kitchener, Peterborough, Oshawa) and industrial districts with a significant number of jobs in manufacturing, construction and utilities (primarily in Scarborough, Pickering, Oshawa, Guelph, Waterloo, and Hamilton). An important factor in the location of employment uses throughout the GGH has been the proximity to highway corridors.

FIGURE 3. Spatial Economic Structure of the GGH

Source: Derived from The Neptis Foundation, Planning for Prosperity, 2015

Significant Employment Zone

Suburban Knowledge Intensive District

AirportEmploymentArea

Downtown Toronto

Tor-York WestEmploymentArea

Tor-York East EmploymentArea

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1 7

28

3 9

4

10

5

6

> Barrie - There is an increasing emphasis on more compact development and intensification.Source: Chris McBrien. Flickr

Future Outlooks

A review of existing socio-economic conditions and trends in the region has led to the identification of ten key outlooks that will be important considerations for the GGH Transportation Plan. These outlooks will influence the way people live and work throughout the region and the characteristics of the transportation system required to support their needs. They include:

Growth, intensification and development will increasingly be directed to existing built up areas and designated Urban Growth Centres, major transit station areas, corridors and designated greenfields within the region.

Substantial growth in both people and jobs has occurred in the inner ring regional municipalities of Durham, York, Peel and Halton. The significant clusters of jobs that have emerged there require greater transit connectivity.

The economic trend of on-demand and the peer to peer economy will continue. The trend has the potential to impact a wide range of industries influencing how people move, live and access goods and services across the region.

The proliferation of e-commerce will enable consumers to access a broad range of goods and services online without having to travel to a physical location. This has implications for logistics and the delivery of goods.

A shift to more knowledge intensive employment, including a decline in manufacturing jobs and a rise in the number of finance, health, education and service-related jobs has implications for the locational preference of employment.

The growth in unskilled, precarious employment, often in areas that are difficult to get to without a car.

The ongoing growth of automation will continue to have implications on regional growth and economic development, and is contributing to a significant reduction in manufacturing jobs.

The rapid growth of Toronto Pearson Airport as the second busiest international airport in North America will have significant implications for the planning of the region’s transportation network. Improving transit connectivity to the airport and surrounding employment area will be critical.

The growing number of seniors in the region will require new considerations for the planning and design of the transportation system.

Improvements to the transportation system can play an important role in helping to address some of the contributing factors for chronic disease, such as reducing air pollution and promoting a shift to more active modes of transportation..

This profile, along with the Environmental and Transportation profiles, will inform several components of the GGH Transportation Plan going forward.

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