GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX Global ...Global Dynamism Index 2012 366.1 Nordic Key findings...

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GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX Global Dynamism Index 2012: business growth fundamentals

Transcript of GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX Global ...Global Dynamism Index 2012 366.1 Nordic Key findings...

Page 1: GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX Global ...Global Dynamism Index 2012 366.1 Nordic Key findings Country-level highlights • Singapore emerges as the most dynamic economy in the

GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX

Global Dynamism Index 2012: business growth fundamentals

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Contents

01 Foreword

02 Introducing the GDI 2012

04 The GDI 2012 results

06 Business operating environment

08 Science and technology

10 Labour and human capital

12 Economics and growth

14 Financing environment

16 Country snapshots

18 Methodology

20 GDI participants and contacts

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Global Dynamism Index 2012 1

Foreword

ED NUSBAUM CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICERGRANT THORNTON INTERNATIONAL

In the Grant Thornton GlobalDynamism Index (GDI), we definedynamism as the changes to theeconomy which have enabled recoveryfrom the 2008-09 economic recessionand are likely to lead to a fast rate offuture growth. The model wasdeveloped by the Economist IntelligenceUnit (EIU), who analysed 50 economieson 22 indicators of dynamism across fivecategories: business operatingenvironment, economics & growth,science & technology, labour & humancapital and financing environment. Tovalidate and weight the indicators, theEIU then conducted a survey of 406senior executives from across theglobe, in which respondents wereasked to assign an importance to eachindicator for their organisation.

We believe that dynamicorganisations need to apply bothreason and instinct to decisionmaking. Deciding which markets yourorganisation should operate in is nodifferent. For example, reason maypoint to the higher-growth emerging

The polarised nature of the recoveryfrom the 2008-9 financial crisis andrecession has had a profound impacton the global economy. Whilsteconomic power was steadily flowingtowards high-growth emergingmarkets prior to 2008, the weakperformance of mature economies overthe past few years has undoubtedly ledto an intensification of this trend. Thestrength of economies in Asia, LatinAmerica, the Middle East and Africais becoming increasingly integral tothe health of the global economy.

Despite recent signs of aslowdown in key economies,emerging markets look set to dictatethe pace at which the global economywill expand, at least in the medium-term. However this does notnecessarily mean that they offer thebest environments for dynamicbusiness growth. Despite pooreconomic growth prospects, maturemarkets offer a wide range of qualitiesand assets that remain central tobusiness location decisions.

markets, but instinct may valuestronger competition laws in moremature markets. The GDI should actas a signpost in this process, byassessing the potential benefits andrisks of each market for yourorganisation.

Further, the index was designed toinfluence public policy debates. In anever more globalised and mobileworld, the ability of economies tobuild on their strengths and mitigateweaknesses, has become fundamentalin terms of attracting investment andboosting growth. In a time ofcontinuing economic turmoil, theGDI highlights the areas in whichgovernments should market theireconomies to investors, and in whichthey need to invest if they are toattract and grow dynamic businesses.

The results are fascinating and,importantly, show that there are manydifferent paths to dynamism. Pleaseexplore the data for yourself atwww.globaldynamismindex.com

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2 Global Dynamism Index 2012

Introducing the GDI 2012

In 2011, Grant Thornton commissioned the EIU toresearch the business growth environments of 50economies chosen on the basis of economicimportance, size and regional diversity1. Five areaswere identified as holding the key drivers to aneconomy’s dynamism2: business operatingenvironment, science and technology, labour andhuman capital, economics and growth and thefinancing environment.

Subsequently, 406 senior executives, from abroad range of countries and industries, wereinterviewed to determine which aspects of theseattributes they deemed most important for businessgrowth. This allowed for the weighting of eachaspect according to its perceived relevance. Byanalysing the change in each attribute from 2007-2010, the first iteration of the index, GDI 2011,determined which economies had enjoyed the mostrobust recoveries from the global financial crisis.

Using the previous iteration as a baseline, thecurrent iteration of the index, GDI 2012, looks atthe progress of each economy over the past 12months. Rather than provide a measure of aneconomy’s success during a period of higheconomic turbulence, this iteration provides a trueillustration of the strength of each economy as aplace for dynamic businesses to flourish.

1 A full list of participating economies is available on p.202 For the purposes of this research, economic dynamism refers to thechanges to the economy which have enabled recovery from the 2008-09economic recession and are likely to lead to a fast rate of future growth.

3 A full list of the economies in each region/group is available on p.20

FIGURE 1: OVERALL DYNAMISM BY REGIONNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

62.9North America

53.8Latin America

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Global Dynamism Index 2012 3

66.1Nordic

Key findingsCountry-level highlights• Singapore emerges as the most

dynamic economy in the world• Finland, Sweden, Israel and

Austria complete the top five• The United States ranks 10, and

China ranks 20• Chile is the top Latin American

country, ranking 12• Venezuela, Nigeria and Greece

sit bottom of the index.

Regional highlights3

• The Nordic nations are the mostdynamic globally

• North America, the G7, WesternEurope and Asia Pacific also sitabove the global average

• Eastern Europe sits just below theglobal average, followed by LatinAmerica and the Growth-8

• Middle East and Africa comesbottom of the regional ranking.

Top economies by aspect of dynamism• business operating environment:

Finland, Ireland, Sweden• science and technology: Israel,

Finland, Sweden• labour and human capital: Argentina,

Slovak Republic, Uruguay• economics and growth: Argentina,

China, Uruguay• financing environment: Singapore,

Finland, France.

55.7Eastern Europe

59.3Asia Pacific

59.2Western Europe

51.0Middle East and

Africa

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binding them together is that they are regarded ashaving industrialised, indicating that a dynamicbusiness environment cannot be built overnight.

Singapore, a small, open economy whichindustrialised rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s, sits atthe top of the GDI. Singapore appears well-placedto act as a gateway for dynamic businesses frommature markets seeking the greater returns on offerin the high-growth markets of Asia. Its economycomes top for financing environment globally, andsits no lower than 11th in any of the five categories.

Two Scandinavian countries come next, withFinland slightly ahead of Sweden. The eurozonecrisis has clearly hurt the economies of bothnations, but the GDI suggests that longer termgrowth fundamentals are robust. Both economiessit in the top three for both business operatingenvironment and science and technology, withFinland behind only Singapore in terms of itsfinancing environment.

Korea is the highest placed member of theGrowth-8, a grouping of the largest high-growthmarkets. However, China is the only other memberof this group which sits in the top half of the index.Indeed India, Indonesia and Russia sit in thebottom ten, emphasising that dynamism is far morethan just another measure of growth.

The release of GDI 2012 comes at a time ofcontinuing global economic uncertainty. In Europe,the severe austerity measures being used to reign inhuge budget deficits appear to be choking growthprospects. In the United States, growth and jobcreation remain slow whilst the return of polarisingpartisan politics is preventing any meaningfuldiscussion of how to tackle the growing mountainof government debt. In Japan, anaemic growth rateswere compounded by the devastating earthquakeand tsunami of March 2011.

Growth prospects are healthier in emergingmarkets. Indeed, over the next five years the IMFexpects emerging market economies to grow ataround 7.8% per annum, compared with 3.2% perannum in mature economies. However, thesemarkets are now wrestling with their new status. InIndia, the government is battling corruptionscandals, high inflation, a declining rupee and amarked slowdown in growth. In Brazil, growthtailed off towards the end of 2011, and thegovernment is now rapidly cutting back interestrates in a bid to boost industry.

Turkey is currently running a current accountdeficit of more than 10%, which is being financedwith potentially dangerous inflows of hot money4

from abroad. Even in China, the target growth ratehas been cut and the full extent of the level of the baddebt taken on by local government as part of the large2008 stimulus programme has yet to be determined.

The ten economies which sit at the top of theGDI are varied, showing that there are many pathsto dynamism. There are three economies from AsiaPacific – Australia, Singapore and Korea; a furtherfive are from Europe – Austria, Germany, Finland,Sweden and Switzerland; the United States fromNorth America and Israel from the Middle East.These ten economies represent a diverse set ofeconomic and political conditions but one thing

The GDI 2012 results

4 Global Dynamism Index 2012

“Singapore is perfectly placed to act as agateway between West and East. Business andeconomic growth prospects are supported byan open, transparent financing environment and a well-educated workforce.”

KON YIN TONGFOO KON TAN GRANT THORNTON

4 ‘Hot money’ refers tospeculative capital flowsthat can move very quicklyin and out of markets

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FIGURE 2: OVERALL DYNAMISM BY COUNTRYNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Singapore 72.1

Finland 70.5

Sweden 69.6

Israel 69.3

Austria 66.1

Australia 65.6

Switzerland 65.1

Korea 64.9

Germany 64.8

United States 64.1

New Zealand 63.9

Chile 63.8

Taiwan 63.7

Norway 62.6

Uruguay 62.5

France 62.2

Denmark 61.9

Canada 61.7

Belgium 61.5

China 61.4

Slovak Republic 59.8

Netherlands 59.5

Malaysia 58.9

Luxembourg 58.4

Slovenia 57.9

Japan 57.5

Ireland 57.3

Poland 57.2

Czech Republic 55.7

Brazil 55.1

Hungary 54.7

United Kingdom 54.5

Vietnam 54.5

Argentina 54.3

UAE 54.3

Turkey 54.2

Mexico 53.2

Italy 52.3

Spain 51.0

India 50.7

Indonesia 50.7

Colombia 50.2

Russia 50.0

South Africa 50.0

Portugal 49.2

Philippines 47.6

Egypt 41.2

Greece 40.2

Nigeria 40.2

Venezuela 37.4

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6 Global Dynamism Index 2012

Business operating environment

5 ‘Ease of doing business index 2012’ – World Bank

Finland, Ireland, Sweden, theNetherlands and Denmark are all veryopen economies with strong,transparent competition and regulatorysystems. Of the five, Ireland hassuffered most from the eurozone crisis,but it has managed to hang on to itslow corporation taxes making it anattractive location for businessinvestment.

An economy’s business operatingenvironment – trade laws, regulation,legal and political institutions –provides the foundations for businessgrowth. A poor operatingenvironment, that fails to offer keysafeguards and security, represents ahigher risk for business investment.Conversely, those economies with opentrade policies and clearly definedcompetition and legal systems offer amuch better platform for dynamicbusinesses.

Business leaders surveyed identifiedforeign trade and exchange regimes andcontrols as the most important aspectof an economy’s business operatingenvironment, followed by policytowards enterprise and competition andlegal & regulatory risk. Politicalstability was assigned a lesserimportance.

It can take economies many yearsto develop a sound business operatingenvironment so it is unsurprising to seethe top ten places taken by matureeconomies. Indeed the top five placesare all held by European nations,showing the underlying strength ofeconomies in the region despite thecurrent lack of growth.

Whilst all the economies of the G7sit in the top 30 on this measure, allthose of the Growth-8 sit in the bottom20, suggesting that the businessoperating environments in these highgrowth markets remain a key area fordevelopment. The recent expropriationby Argentina of YPF, an oil companyformerly run by Spanish firm Repsol,highlights the risks businesses can facewhen investing in markets withdifferent regulatory frameworks.

“Chile is rapidly becoming more business-friendly. In recent years, the government hastaken robust measures to cut the costs and timeinvolved in starting a business.”

ALFONSO IBAÑEZGRANT THORNTON CHILE

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Global Dynamism Index 2012 7

Russia and India, two economieswhich suffer from high levels ofcorruption, sit in the bottom five on this measure. In India, the reversal of the decision to allow aforeign group to buy up to 51% oflocal retail companies shows how closed certain sectors are. China, where questions are raised aroundcompetition due to the volume anddominance of state-owned enterprises,also has one of the least dynamicbusiness operating environments.

Chile, where huge strides have beenmade over recent years in cutting theprocedures, costs and days taken tostart a business5, is the highest rankingemerging market, ranking 14 globally,level with Switzerland and above theUK, France and Spain. TroubledGreece ranks 35, below Korea, Mexicoand Uruguay.

FIGURE 3A: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATINGENVIRONMENT: TOP 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Finland94.2

Ireland93.4

Sweden 92.8Netherlands 91.5Denmark 91.4

Canada 91.2

Australia 90.7

Luxembo

urg 90.7

New Z

ealand

90.4

Austria90.1

FIGURE 3B: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATINGENVIRONMENT: BOTTOM 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Pilippines62.6

China59.6

Vietnam59.3

Egypt 59.1Indonesia 55.7

India 54.7

Russia 51.0

Argentina

48.4

Venezu

ela35.7

Nigeria

33.9

FIGURE 4: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING ENVIRONMENT: BY REGIONNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

75.8All countries

60.3Middle East and

Africa

72.9Asia Pacific

62.3Growth – 8

90.4North America

91.4Nordic

63.9Latin America

85.5G7

86.8Western Europe

72.9Eastern Europe

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Science and technology

Israel offers the most dynamicscience and technology environment bysome distance, due principally to thelarge proportion of GDP which isspent on R&D (4.3%) – the aspect ofscience and technology business leadersidentified as the most important. In the1990s, Israel welcomed more than amillion immigrants from the formerSoviet Union into the country, many ofthem highly qualified scientists andengineers. The government capitalisedon this influx of highly-skilled labourby creating a number of tax incentivesfor venture capital funds and businessincubator programmes, to develop its hi-tech industry.

Science and technology is a measure of the ability of an economy’sinfrastructure to support the growth of dynamic businesses. The rise of the internet has steadily eroded thegeographical and economic barriers tocompetition, but its ever-increasingimportance to the operations ofdynamic businesses means poorconnectivity can also hold economiesback. Similarly, significant investmentin research and development (R&D) islikely to boost the growth prospects ofan economy both by creating newentrepreneurs and attracting businesses.

The top ten economies in the GDIon this measure come from all over theworld. Their economies are of differentsizes and are at different stages ofdevelopment. However, they share acommon drive to be ahead of thetechnological curve.

In the Nordic region, which issynonymous with innovations such asthe mobile telephone, there is also along tradition of investing heavily inR&D, both through businesses andhigher education institutions. Finland,Sweden and Denmark all score well interms of the proportion of GDPaccounted for by R&D, as well as onthe quality of their IT infrastructure.Elsewhere in Europe, Germany, whichis home to some of the most advancedengineering firms in the world, andSwitzerland, both also have much tooffer dynamic businesses in this area.

“Entrepreneurship is strong in Israel, especiallyin hi-tech industries. The economy not only has the largest number of biotech and overallstart-ups in the world per capita, but also thethird most NASDAQ-listed companies.”

ILANIT HALPERINGRANT THORNTON ISRAEL

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Korea is the highest ranking Asiannation in this area, ahead of Japan andTaiwan in the top ten. The structure ofbusiness in Korea is unusual in that thetop ten businesses – the Chaebol – havearound 55% of market capitalisation.These firms, such as Samsung andHyundai, have large, vertically-integrated supply chains which helpthem stay at the forefront oftechnological innovation.Proportionately, Japan has the fourthlargest spend on R&D of the 50economies in the GDI, although clearlythis has failed to translate intoeconomic growth in recent years.

Whilst IT infrastructure is generallybetter in mature markets, manyemerging markets are spendingaggressively to close the gap. TheUnited Arab Emirates, for example,increased spending in this area by morethan 70% between 2010 and 2011,ahead of Uruguay (31%), China (23%)and Nigeria (22%). Similarly, thegreatest increases in broadbandsubscribers in 2011 were observed inEgypt, the Philippines and, again,Uruguay.

FIGURE 5A: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: TOP 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Israel 73.0

Finland65.8

Sweden 64.9

Korea 61.0Switzerland 59.0

Japan 58.8

Denmark 56.4

Taiwan 5

3.9

Germany

53.5

UAE53.2

FIGURE 5B: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY:BOTTOM 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Argentina23.2

Poland20.9

Philippines 20.2

Chile 19.3Columbia 18.7Nigeria 17.9

Greece 17.5

Indonesi

a 16.4

Egypt

15.7

Venezuela

10.3

FIGURE 6: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: BY REGIONNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

57.3Nordic

39.5Asia Pacific

44.0Western Europe

45.8G7

37.4All countries 37.3

Middle East andAfrica

46.7North America

29.2Eastern Europe

31.6Growth – 8

23.5Latin America

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10 Global Dynamism Index 2012

Labour and human capital

Argentina scores highest for thedynamism of its labour and humancapital, driven by labour productivitygrowth of 6.3% in 2011. School lifeexpectancy in Argentina of 16.1 years isalso above economies such as Canada,Germany and Sweden. Labourproductivity growth in the SlovakRepublic was even more impressive in2011 (10.3%) helping its economy intosecond place. Another Latin Americaneconomy, Uruguay, sits in third thanksto strong labour productivity growthand a low unemployment rate.

Six of the remaining seveneconomies in the top ten are from theAsia Pacific region. China experiencedthe second fastest labour productivitygrowth (8.3%) in 2011, but is held back by a school life expectancy in the bottom five globally. Conversely, New Zealand and Australia have the

Without the right workers to drive avision forward, an entrepreneur willnot be able to achieve scalability in hisor her businesses. The best workers notonly increase productivity, but can also save a business time and money.Some of the most dynamic companiesin the world go to great lengths toensure they get the best people, and itworks both ways in that the best peoplewill often be attracted by the mostdynamic companies.

When surveyed, business leadersassigned the greatest weighting to thereported growth in labour productivity– output per worker. This is followedby school life expectancy (how long theaverage child spends in education) andthe unemployment rate. Theproportion of the population under 30 was assigned the lowest weight.

On the whole, the economies ofemerging markets score better on thismeasure that those in mature markets,largely because growth in labourproductivity favours emerging marketsas they start from a lower base. LatinAmerica, Asia Pacific, the Growth-8and Eastern Europe all score highly inthis area, although the Nordic regionagain leads the way.

“In comparison, United States business growthfundamentals are solid. A strong and stable legalsystem, access to capital, credit, and a highlyskilled, diverse workforce are all key drivers of business location decisions.”

STEPHEN CHIPMAN GRANT THORNTON US

strongest school life expectancy ratesin the survey, but experienced mushslower labour productivity growth in2011. Korea’s position at sixth issupported by a low unemployment rate(3.4%) and high school life expectancy.

The highest ranking member of theG7 on this measure is Germany at 22.Many mature market economies arealready dealing with unfavourabledemographics with ageing populationsincreasing dependency ratios andputting pressure on resources. Threesuch economies – Italy, Japan andGermany – sit bottom of the rankingsfor the proportion of their populationunder 30. And, whilst the G7economies all find themselves in the top 30 for school life expectancy, theyare also all in the bottom 30 in terms of labour productivity growth rates in 2011.

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FIGURE 7A: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL: TOP 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Argentina72.5

SlovakRepublic

72.4

Uruguay 69.0

China 67.4New Zealand 65.6

Korea 64.1

Australia 63.9

Norway 6

2.4

Indone

sia62.1

Taiwan61.6

FIGURE 7B: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL:BOTTOM 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Portugal 51.0

Colombia

50.6

Hungary 50.1

Spain 47.4Philippines 47.3Greece 46.6

Nigeria 37.3

Egypt 35.0

South

Africa

34.6

UAE32.4

FIGURE 8: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL: BY REGIONNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Excluding Israel, which ranks 18,the economies of the Middle East andAfrica score poorly on this measure,with the United Arab Emirates, SouthAfrica, Egypt and Nigeria filling thelast four places. More than half of theirpopulations are under 30, but schoollife expectancy averages below 14 yearsin each and unemployment rates –especially in South Africa and Nigeria – are high. The key danger in theseeconomies is that if young people lackthe necessary training or employmentopportunities, then the benefits of ademographic transition – a boost togrowth prospects as the number ofworkers increases relative todependants (children and the retired) – will be lost.

59.8Latin America

60.2Nordic

56.4Eastern Europe

55.8Western Europe

54.6G7

55.7All countries

39.6Middle East and

Africa

59.5Asia Pacific

58.5Growth – 8

56.0North America

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12 Global Dynamism Index 2012

Economics and growth

included in the GDI, whilst consumer demand expanded by 23% over thesame period, the highest of all 50economies. However, recent effort toreign in wage growth, cut subsidies andprop up the trade balance are likely toresult in growth rates dropping below4% over the next five years.

Argentina leads a strong showingfrom Latin America, with Uruguay (3),Chile (4) and Colombia (10) all in the topten. The two regional heavyweights, Braziland Mexico, rank 20 and 21 respectively.

The rising global superpower, Chinaranks second on this measure ofdynamism. Its economy posted growthof over 9% in 2011 whilst consumerdemand expanded by 21%. In an effortto cut reliance on exports andinvestment in favour of domesticconsumption, China’s economic growthrate target has been dropped from the8.0% in place since 2005, to 7.5%.

Even before the global financial crisis,governments and business leaders inmature markets were talking up theimportance of having a presence in thefaster growing emerging markets. Asgovernments and consumers deleveragein mature markets, and growth ratescontinue to disappoint, these calls havebeen growing louder.

For dynamic businesses, fastergrowing markets offer the consumer,business and public sector demand tomatch their ambition. How fast aneconomy is expanding – growth in realGDP – is identified as the key aspect ofthis area of dynamism according tobusiness leaders. How fast consumerdemand is growing is also deemedimportant, with the change in the valueof the stock market assigned a lowerweighting.

Unsurprisingly given events since2008, emerging markets are well aheadof mature markets on this measure. TheGrowth-8 group of countries rankahead of Latin America, Asia Pacific,Middle East & Africa and EasternEurope. With an end to its sovereigndebt crisis still seemingly a long wayoff, Western Europe sits bottom of theregional ranking.

Argentina ranks top globally interms of the dynamism of its economicand growth environment. Its economyexpanded by 9% in 2011, behind onlythat of China of the 50 economies

Elsewhere in Asia Pacific, theeconomies of India (5) and Indonesia(6) also score well in this category. InIndia, expansion is expected to slow in2012 in the face of strong globaleconomic headwinds and persistentlyhigh inflation which is constrainingprivate consumption. Indonesia’sgrowth rate will continue to beunderpinned by strong growth inexports and consumer demand.

The highest ranking matureeconomy on this measure is Sweden(14), where growth in GDP andconsumer demand grew steadily in 2011despite the regional slowdown.Germany (25) ranks highest of the G7nations; its economy expanded by 3%in 2011, well ahead of any othereurozone nation, and consumer demandincreased by 9%. The Canadianeconomy escaped relatively unscathedfrom the financial crisis and ranks 31,ahead of the United States (38).

“Not only is China growing rapidly, but it is also developing. Increases in labourproductivity and domestic demand point to a successful rebalancing of the economy.”

XU HUAGRANT THORNTON CHINA

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FIGURE 9A: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH: TOP 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Argentina95.6

China94.6

Uruguay 82.3Chile 80.6

India 80.0

Indonesia 79.8

Nigeria 79.4

Turkey 7

8.0

Singapore75.3

Colom

bia73.8

Russia73.8

FIGURE 9B: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH :BOTTOM 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

UK52.1

Denmark

52.0

Spain 50.3

Venezuela 49.7Ireland 49.5

Italy 49.2

Slovenia 46.8

Japan 45

.4

Portugal39.5

Greece13.4

FIGURE 10: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH: BY REGIONNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

60.7Nordic

62.6All countries

69.8Asia Pacific

75.4Growth – 8

55.7North America 53.4

G7

53.0Western Europe

73.4Latin America

65.2Middle East and

Africa

Of the bottom ten economies,seven are from Western Europe. At the bottom, Greece and Portugal,which have received huge bailouts but remain at the eye of the eurozonestorm, both saw their economiescontract in 2011. Forecasts for 2012point to further drops in output asausterity measures bite. Other eurozoneeconomies which look set to contractthis year, as new governments forcethrough massive fiscal adjustments –namely Italy (46), Ireland (45) and Spain (43) – also rank well down on this measure.

The economies of Japan (48) –where GDP contracted by 0.9% in2011 following the devastatingearthquake and tsunami – andVenezuela (44) – where consumerdemand fell by 22% as rampantinflation cut into spending power – also offer less opportunity to dynamicbusinesses on this measure.

62.7Eastern Europe

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14 Global Dynamism Index 2012

Financing environment

Mature economies tend to performmore strongly than emergingeconomies on this measure. NorthAmerica emerges as having the bestfinancing environment, followed by the Nordic region, the G7 and WesternEurope. Interestingly, the Growth-8sits at the bottom of the regionalrankings, highlighting it as a key area of development.

At the country-level, Singapore has the most dynamic financingenvironment, well ahead of secondplaced Finland and third placed France.Singapore ranks highest in terms of thequality of its financial regulatory system,the lightness of its corporate tax burdenand its high level of private sector credit.

Ambitious growth plans are importantfor dynamic organisations, but withoutthe finance to bring them to life, theywill have little impact on profitability.The global financial crisis that broke in 2008 clearly showed that a majorcontraction in liquidity will result in a major contraction in output. Thebillions of euros provided by theEuropean Central Bank to the regions’banks, which (at least) delayed regionalmeltdown, provide further evidence of the importance of finance to growth.

Dynamic organisations need toinvest to stay ahead of the curve, andtherefore require the financingenvironment in which they operate tobe as agile and fast-moving as they are.Business leaders identified a soundfinancial regulatory system as the mostimportant aspect of an economy’sfinancing environment. This is followedby measures of credit availability –namely access to medium-term capitaland the level of private sector credit (asa proportion of GDP) – the prevailingcorporate tax rate and growth ininward direct investment. Growth in,and the value of, inward M&A dealswere given lower weightings.

Finland and France both rank equal firstwith Singapore in terms of levels ofprivate sector credit, and sit joint fourthin the rankings for the quality of theirfinancial regulatory systems and accessto medium-term capital.

Another European country,Austria, sits fourth on this measure butthe overall regional score is draggeddown by the UK, Portugal, Spain andIreland which all sit in the bottom 15.Indeed, despite London being arguablythe financial capital of the world, theUK sits above only Indonesia,Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria andArgentina in terms of the dynamism of its financial environment.

“Despite the slowdown in the eurozone,business growth fundamentals in Finlandremain robust. Investment in R&D remainshigh whilst open trade policies and stronginstitutions provide a low risk environment for investment.”

JOAKIM REHNGRANT THORNTON FINLAND

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Global Dynamism Index 2012 15

In North America, both the United States (8) and Canada (13)perform strongly. Whilst the corporatetax burden in each is heavier thanaverage, their economies rank joint first for access to medium-term capital. Moreover Canada ranks third for the quality of its financialregulatory system and the US ranksfirst for both the value of inward M&Adeals and for private sector credit.

Chile is the highest placed emergingmarket, ranking 4= overall on thismeasure. It ranks joint first for privatesector credit and joint fourth for boththe quality of its financial regulatorysystems and access to medium termcapital. With its low corporate taxburden and sound financial regulatorysystem, Poland is the second highestranked emerging market. Of theGrowth-8 economies, Korea rankshighest (18) ahead of Brazil (24), withIndia (43) and Russia (48) near thebottom.

FIGURE 11A: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT: TOP 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Singapore82.2

Finland72.3

France 71.8Austria 71.4Chile 71.4

Poland 70.4

New Zealand 69.8

United St

ates69.5

Israel 6

8.3

Slovenia

67.6

FIGURE 11B: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT:BOTTOM 10NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

Portugal 43.4

Egypt 43.3

India 40.5

Philippines40.1

UK 39.9Indonesia 39.2

Venezuela34.5

Russia 32.9

Nigeria32.6

Argentina

31.6

FIGURE 12: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT: BY REGIONNORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

61.1Nordic

57.1Eastern Europe

55.0All countries

54.8Asia Pacific

47.4Growth – 8

65.7North America 58.6

G7

56.5Western Europe

48.4Latin America

52.6Middle East and

Africa

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16 Global Dynamism Index 2012

Country snapshots

FIGURE 13: GDI – COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Country Rank Strongest area (rank) Regional comparison

Argentina 34= Economics & growth, labour & human ranks 4 in Latin America, behind Chile, Uruguay and Brazil

capital (1)

Australia 6 Business operating environment, labour ranks 2 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore

& human capital (7)

Austria 5 Financing environment (4) ranks 3 in Europe, behind Finland and Sweden

Belgium 19 Business operating environment (14) ranks 9 in Europe, ahead of the Netherlands and Luxembourg

Brazil 30 Economics & growth (20) ranks 3 in Latin America; ranks 3 in Growth-8 behind Korea and China

Canada 18 Business operating environment (6) ranks 4 in G7 behind United States, Germany and France

Chile 12 Financing environment, economics top in Latin America

& growth (4)

China 20 Economics & growth (2) ranks 2 in Growth-8 behind Korea; ranks 6 in Asia Pacific

Colombia 42 Economics & growth (10) ranks 6 in Latin America, ahead of only Venezuela

Czech Republic 29 Business operating environment (22) ranks 4 Eastern Europe, behind Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Poland

Denmark 17 Business operating environment (5) ranks last of 4 Nordic nations; ranks 8 in Western Europe

Egypt 47 Economics & Growth (39) ranks 4 in Middle East & Africa, behind Israel, UAE and South Africa

Finland 2 Business operating environment (1) top in Western Europe

France 16 Financing environment (3) ranks 7 in Western Europe, behind Germany but ahead of UK ranks 3 in G7

Germany 16 Science & technology (9) ranks 5 in Western Europe; ranks 1 in G7

Greece 48= Financing environment (29) bottom in Western Europe

Hungary 31 Financing environment (21) ranks 5 in Eastern Europe

India 40= Economics & growth (5) ranks 10 in Asia Pacific; 6 in Growth-8, level with Indonesia and ahead of Russia

Indonesia 40= Economics & Growth (6) ranks 10 in Asia Pacific; 6 in Growth-8, level with India and ahead of Russia

Ireland 27 Business operating environment (2) ranks 12 in Western Europe, behind Nordic nations but ahead of UK

Israel 4 Science & technology (1) ranks 1 in Middle East and Africa

Italy 38 Financing environment (28) ranks 14 in Western Europe; bottom in G7

Japan 26 Science & technology (6) ranks 8 in Asia Pacific; ranks 5 in G7

Korea 8 Science & technology (4) ranks 3 in Asia Pacific; top in Growth-8

Luxembourg 24 Business operating environment (7) ranks 11 in Western Europe

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Global Dynamism Index 2012 17

Country Rank Strongest area (rank) Regional comparison

Malaysia 23 Economics & growth (13) ranks 7 in Asia Pacific

Mexico 37 Economics & growth (21) ranks 5 in Latin America; ranks 5 in Growth-8

Netherlands 22 Business operating environment (4) ranks 10 in Western Europe

New Zealand 11 Labour & human capital (5) ranks 4 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore, Australia and Korea

Nigeria 48= Economics & growth (7) bottom in Middle East and Africa

Norway 14 Labour & human capital (8) ranks 3 in Nordic; ranks 6 in Western Europe

Philippines 46 Economics & growth (15) bottom in Asia Pacific

Poland 28 Financing environment (6) ranks 3 in Eastern Europe, behind the Slovak Republic and Slovenia

Portugal 45 Business operating environment (27) second bottom in Western Europe, ahead of only Greece

Russia 43= Economics & growth (10) last in Eastern Europe and Growth-8

Singapore 1 Financing environment (1) top in Asia Pacific

Slovak Republic 21 Labour & human capital (2) top in Eastern Europe

Slovenia 25 Financing environment (10) ranks 2 in Eastern Europe

South Africa 43= Economics & growth (18) ranks 3 in Middle East and Africa, behind Israel and the UAE

Spain 39 Business operating environment (21) ranks 15 in Western Europe, ahead of only Portugal and Greece

Sweden 3 Business operating environment, ranks 2 in Western Europe and Nordic behind Finland

science & technology (3)

Switzerland 7 Science & technology (5) ranks 4 in Western Europe behind Finland, Sweden and Austria

Taiwan 13 Science & technology (8) ranks 5 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore and Korea

Turkey 36 Economics & growth (8) ranks 6 in Eastern Europe, ahead of Russia; ranks in 4 in Growth-8

United Arab 34= Science & technology (10) ranks 2 Middle East and Africa, behind Israel

Emirates

United Kingdom 32= Business operating environment (17) ranks 13 in Western Europe; ranks second last in G7, ahead of Italy

United States 10 Financing environment (8) ahead of Canada in North America; ranks 2 in G7, behind Germany

Uruguay 15 Labour & human capital, ranks 2 in Latin America, behind Chile but ahead of Brazil

economics & growth (3)

Venezuela 50 Labour & human capital (27) bottom in Latin America

Vietnam 32= Economics & growth (12) ranks 9 in Asia Pacific, ahead of the Philippines but behind Malaysia

“The United Kingdom is an open, trade-orientedeconomy with good global connectivity. However,despite being home to arguably the largest financialcentre in the world, much more can be done to fostera financing environment that aids business growth.”

SCOTT BARNESGRANT THORNTON UK

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Methodology

18 Global Dynamism Index 2012

SurveyThe survey of 406 senior executives was conductedby the Thought Leadership team at the EIU. Thesample breakdown is shown below:• 29% of respondents were CEOs, a further 23%

were in other C-Suite or board roles, and theremainder occupied other senior decision-making roles

• 49% of businesses represented in the survey hadglobal annual revenues exceeding $500m

• 33% of respondents were based in NorthAmerica, followed by Asia-Pacific, Europe(both 26%), Middle East & Africa (8%) andLatin America (7%)

• 19 different sectors were represented in thesurvey, led by financial services (14%),professional services (11%), technology (10%)and manufacturing (9%).

WeightingSurvey respondents were asked to assign animportance to each of the indicators for theircompany, translating to the weight seen in figure 14. Each category was weighted evenly.

More informationTo find out more about the GDI, go towww.gti.org/thinking or contact Dominic King([email protected]). To access the resultsdirectly go to www.globaldynamismindex.com.

IndicatorsCategories and indicators were selected on the basisof expert analysis by the Economist IntelligenceUnit (EIU). Indicators are drawn from a variety ofsources, including: the EIU, the World Bank,Thomson Financial and UNESCO. Please refer tofigure 14 for a full list of indicators and sources.

Data modellingModelling the indicators and categories results inscores of 0-100 for each country, where 100represents the most dynamic environment and 0 the least. The overall score, as well as the categoryscores, are averages of the normalised scores foreach of the indicators. Each economy is then rankedaccording to these scores. Indicator scores arenormalised and then aggregated across categories toenable a comparison of broader concepts acrosscountries. Normalisation rebases the raw indicatorto a common unit so that it can be aggregated.

The indicators where a higher value means amore favourable environment eg. real GDP growthhave been normalised on the basis of: x = (x-Min(x))/ (Max(x) – Min(x)), where Min(x) and Max(x) arerespectively the lowest and highest values in the 50economies for any given indicator. The normalisedvalue is then transformed from 0-1 to a 0-100 scoreto make it directly comparable with otherindicators. This in effect means that the countrywith the highest raw data value will score 100, andthe lowest scores 0. The indicators where a highervalue means a less favourable environment eg.unemployment, have been normalised on the basisof: x = (x-Max(x)) / (Max(x) – Min(x)).

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FIGURE 14 : FULL LIST OF INDICATORS

Category Indicator Source Year Weight

Business operating Foreign trade and exchange regimes and controls EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 41%

environment Policy towards private enterprise and competition EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 23%

Political stability EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 13%

Legal and regulatory risk EIU Risk Briefing 2011 23%

Science & technology Broadband subscriber lines per 100 inhabitants EIU Technology Indicators 2011 10%

Growth in broadband subscriber lines EIU Technology Indicators 2010-11 10%

R&D as % of GDP UNESCO 2008-10 52%

Total IT spending growth EIU Technology Indicators 2010-11 28%

Labour & human capital Labour productivity growth EIU Country data 2011 47%

Unemployment EIU Country data 2010-11 20%

School life expectancy UNESCO 2008-10 28%

% of population under 30 EIU Demographic Trends 2011 6%

Financing environment Quality of overall financial regulatory system EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 30%

Access of firms to medium-term capital EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 26%

Growth in value of inward M&A deals Thomson Financial 2010-11 3%

Value of inward M&A deals Thomson Financial 2011 3%

Private sector credit as % of GDP World Bank 2010 18%

Inward direct investment growth EIU Country data 2010-11 7%

Corporate tax burden EIU Country data 2011 14%

Economics & growth Real GDP growth EIU Country data 2010-11 67%

Private consumption per head EIU Country data 2010-11 28%

Change in $ value of stockmarket index EIU Country data 2010-11 5%

Global Dynamism Index 2012 19

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GDI participants and contacts

20 Global Dynamism Index 2012

FIGURE 15 : PARTICIPATING ECONOMIES BY REGION/GROUP

Asia Pacific Eastern Europe G7 Growth – 8 Latin Middle East Nordic North America Western America and Africa Europe

Australia Czech Republic Canada Brazil Argentina Egypt Denmark Canada Austria

China Hungary France China Brazil Israel Finland United States Belgium

India Poland Germany India Chile Nigeria Norway Denmark

Indonesia Russia Italy Indonesia Colombia South Africa Sweden Finland

Japan Slovak Republic Japan Mexico Mexico United Arab France

Malaysia Slovenia United Kingdom Russia Uruguay Emirates Germany

New Zealand Turkey United States Korea Venezuela Greece

Philippines Turkey Ireland

Singapore Italy

Korea Luxembourg

Taiwan Netherlands

Vietnam Norway

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

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AustriaGrant Thornton Walter PlatzerT +43 (0)1 262 62 211E [email protected]

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AustraliaGrant ThorntonTony MarkwellT +61 (0) 7 3222 0200E [email protected]

BelgiumGrant ThorntonJohan HaeltermanT +32 (0) 477 61 80 87E [email protected]

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Raymond Chabot Grant ThorntonBenoit EganT +1 514 393 4816E [email protected]

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GermanyGrant ThorntonKlaus-Guenter KleinT +49 211 9524 140E [email protected]

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