Grandparents & Grandchildren

Bruce Gregor www.findem.com.au

Inflection Points for Baby Boomers

Australian Population Association Conference 6-8 December 2006

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1950 2050

1.2 m Grandparents• Av Age 59• First-timers Av Age 48• 64% of Over-65 Pop.

3.1 m Grandchildren• Av Age 13• 36% of 25-29 yr olds• 5% of Over-30’s

5.7 m Grandparents• Av Age 71• First-timers Av Age 54• 54% of Over-65 Pop.

13.8 m Grandchildren• Av Age 23• 90% of 25-29 yr olds• 23% of Over-30’s

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1950 2006 2050

1.2 m Grandparents• Av Age 59• First-timers Av Age 48• 64% of Over-65 Pop.

3.1 m Grandchildren• Av Age 13• 36% of 25-29 yr olds• 5% of Over-30’s

5.7 m Grandparents• Av Age 71• First-timers Av Age 54• 54% of Over-65 Pop.

13.8 m Grandchildren• Av Age 23• 90% of 25-29 yr olds• 23% of Over-30’s

4.1 m Grandparents• Av Age 65• First-timers Av Age 51• 75% of Over-65 Pop.

8.8 m Grandchildren• Av Age 18• 67% of 25-29 yr olds• 13% of Over-30’s

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Drivers of Change

• Grandparents– Age specific Fertility– Childlessness– Distance from Grandchildren

• Grandchildren– Mortality Improvement of Grandparents

– Partnering Patterns of Mothers & Fathers

– Distance from Grandparents

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Two Generation Fertility

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Age of Mother and Grandmother on Giving Berth

Births per 1000 Women this age

1950 Grandchildren

2006 Grandchildren

2050 Grandchildren

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Two Generation Childlessness

31

11

27

11

27

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 2006 2050

Year of Birth Of Grandchildren

% Childless Mothers + Grandmothers

Generations

Mothers Generation

Grandmothers Generation

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Grandparent Life Expectancyusing cohort mortality from age of birth of grandparent generation

61.0

84.3

94.1

54.7

77.3

90.18

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 2006 2050

Year of Birth of Grandchildren

Cohort Life Expectancy from

Birth of Grandparent

Grandmother

Grandfather

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% of Population with Grandmothers and Grandfathers

28.7%28.0% 28.5%

29.2%30.7%

32.8%

35.1%

36.7%37.7%

40.0% 39.9% 40.2% 40.0% 40.4% 40.9%42.3%

44.1%45.2%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

Children Living with at least 1 G.Fathers Living

Children Living with at least 1 G.Mothers Living

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% of Population with 4 Grandparents and Only 1 Grandparent

12.4% 11.9%11.0%

10.3%9.6%

8.2%7.4% 7.9%

8.6%8.5%9.1%

10.1%

11.8%

14.0%

16.2%

17.5%18.4%

19.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

Children Living with only 1 G.Parent Living

Children Living with All 4 G.Parents Living

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Divorce Rate

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1901 1921 1933 1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1990 1985 1995 2000 2005

Divorce Rate / 1000 Population

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Net Overseas migration age profile 2003

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Issues for study in Kinship

• Age of first becoming a Grandparent and withdrawal from workforce• Overseas resident Grandchildren and Grandparent travel• Overseas resident Grandparents and Grandchildren travel• Increased % of young adults with Grandparents

– Influence on more conservative values for young adults?– Grandchildren assisting Parents with carer roles for elderly relatives?– Gifting wealth for school fees and housing finance– Will step-children and step-grandchildren create

more or less options for elder care?

• Segregated retirement lifestyles– Retirees with Grandchildren– Retirees without Grandchildren

• Multi-generation households and unaffordable house prices

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Other Studies of Kinship & Resources Links

• UK - Emily Grundy– London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

– Using 1999 Omnibus Survey interviews with 1,800 UK Households

• USA - Kenneth W. Wachter– University of California, Berkley

– Micro simulations projecting 3 generations of (white) kin and step kin in 1990-2030

• Resources Links– This Paper and Results as a spreadsheet

http://www.findem.com.au/resources/resourcesarchiver.php

– Links to Grandparents siteshttp://www.findem.com.au/resources/resourcesarchivek.php