Graduation programs creating ladders out of extreme poverty nassreena sampaco baddiri
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Impact of the Graduation Model: highlighting worldwide efforts Innovations for Poverty Action
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Transcript of Graduation programs creating ladders out of extreme poverty nassreena sampaco baddiri
Impact of the Graduation Model: highlighting
worldwide efforts
Innovations for Poverty Action
2
Adaptation at 10 Sites
• Adaptation sponsored by CGAP and Ford Foundation: Ghana, Haiti, Honduras, India (3), Ethiopia, Pakistan, Peru, Yemen
• Randomized evaluations at 8 sites ( )
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Why Evaluate?
• Thinking forward
• Not looking backwards
• What is the impact of the Graduation model on the ultra poor?– Impact evaluation measures:
How have the lives of clients changed compared to how they would have changed in the absence of the program
– Note this is different from “How have their lives changed”
www.poverty-action.org
What is impact?
Time
Prim
ary
Out
com
e
Impact
Counterfactual
Intervention
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Global Study Timeline
www.poverty-action.org
Baseline Survey (India, 2007; Pakistan, 2008; Honduras, 2008-09; Peru, Ethiopia & Yemen, 2010; Ghana, 2011)
Follow-up Surveys (India, 2010; Pakistan, Honduras & Ethiopia, 2013; Peru & Ghana, 2014)
Pre-Baseline Identification of Beneficiaries
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Implementation BeginsIndia, 2007-08; Pakistan, 2008; Honduras, 2009; Ethiopia, 2010; Yemen, 2010-11; Peru, 2011; Ghana, 2011
Endline Survey (India, 2009; Pakistan, 2011; Honduras, 2012; Ethiopia, 2012; Yemen, pending; Peru, 2013; Ghana, 2013) Randomizat
ion
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Spill Over Design
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Villages
Households
Treatment Communities
TT TC
Control Communities
CC Non-eligible Non-eligible
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Ghana Evaluation Design
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241 Communities (3,981 households)
Core Module:
78 communities
Savings Only:
77 communities
Asset Only:
10 comm.
Control:
76 comm.
GUP – Savings
GUP – No
SavingsControl SOUP –
Matched
SOUP – Not
MatchedControl Asset only Pure
Control
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Survey Modules
• Household information• Health indicators• Education• Consumption• Income and activities• Assets• Credit• Risk preferences• Ongoing qualitative
research www.poverty-action.org
Asset transfers
goatsheephensewing machineboatcalfcow/buffaloshopcart
Honduras Pakistan
Ethiopia
9www.poverty-action.org
chickens
vegetable production
plantains
grocery stores
fisheries
pigs
shoatsoxenbee colonypetty trade
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Cross-Site Analysis
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Household Consumption
www.poverty-action.org
India (Bandhan) Pakistan Honduras Ethiopia
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Annual consumption in year following treatment
+ $183.12
+ $115.97
- $20.40
+ $74.35
% in
crea
se re
lativ
e to
con
trol
C: $528.39 C: $1622.79 C: $1644.31 C: $670.74
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Food Consumption
www.poverty-action.org
India (Bandhan) Pakistan Honduras Ethiopia0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
Food Consumption, Last 30 Days+ $4.13
+ $5.97
+ $0.21
+ $4.16
% in
crea
se re
lativ
e to
con
trol
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Above Poverty Line
www.poverty-action.org
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
India (Bandhan) Pakistan Honduras Ethiopia
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80
Households Above US$1.25/day PPP
Prop
ortio
n of
Hou
seho
lds
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Food Security
www.poverty-action.org
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
India (Bandhan) Pakistan Honduras Ethiopia
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Ever cut the size of children's meals?
Prop
ortio
n of
Hou
seho
lds
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Happiness
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Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
Cont
rol
Trea
tmen
t
India (Bandhan) Honduras Ethiopia
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
Happiness
Hap
pine
ss In
dex
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Honduras: Returns to Chickens
www.poverty-action.org
0.0
02
.00
4.0
06
kden
sity
Ichi
cken
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000x
Round 1 Round 2Round 3 Round 4Round 5
Chickens
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Peru: Returns to Guinea Pigs
www.poverty-action.org
Number of Guinea Pigs Sold
1
2
3
4
5
6
May2011
Sept2011
Dec2011
March2012
June2012
Sept2012
Jan2013
Round
Control Treatment
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Peru: Returns to Guinea Pigs
www.poverty-action.org
Weekly Net Income from Guinea Pigs
0
2
4
6
May2011
Sept2011
Dec2011
March2012
June2012
Sept2012
Jan2013
Round
Control Treatment
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Take-away points• Integrated approach: whole bigger than sum of
the parts?• Early impacts quite positive, but not 100% of
time– When does it work, when does it not?
• Improving the model: – Which program components are most useful?– Compare to cash
