GOVT S-1113 Lecture 11. Post-communist Transitions Four Main Trajectories: – ECE model ...
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Transcript of GOVT S-1113 Lecture 11. Post-communist Transitions Four Main Trajectories: – ECE model ...
Post-communist Transitions
• Four Main Trajectories:– ECE model Democratization (with “hiccups”)
– Former Yugoslavia/Balkans Internecine conflict/ political divorce (bloody, for the most part)
– Soviet “Slavic core” neo-authoritarian backsliding
– Central Asia largely demagogic/sultanistic rule
Structure and Agency in Post-communist Transitions
• Structural factors– West– East
• Intermediate-term legacies– Interwar period
• Proximate legacies– Different “types” of communism
Structure and Agency in Post-communist Transitions
• Dedication of elites to project of democracy
• Patience of voting public/ability to tolerate reform
• Ideational affinity and “peer group”
• Statesmen and “accidental politicians”
Competing Explanations for Collapse of Communism
• Elite enervation
• Undermined by popular pressure
• Broke apart due to institutional and organizational inefficiency
• Pressure from outside
“Deep” Legacies (aka “structure”)
Three historical regions of Europe (Jeno Szucs, 1983)
Fault-lines of European politics:-Religion-Political traditions-Economic development level
«Господи! Помоги мне выжить среди этой смертной любви» (Mein Gott, hilf mir, diese
tödliche Liebe zu überleben) Dmitri Vrubel