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Govert D. Geldof Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby VUPTI Meeting Taastrup, 9 June...
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Transcript of Govert D. Geldof Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby VUPTI Meeting Taastrup, 9 June...
Govert D. GeldofGeldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby
VUPTI MeetingTaastrup, 9 June 2010
PresentationClimate Change Adaptation is complex?Top 5:
1. Accepting complexity2. The power of practice3. Making perceptions explicit4. The importance of history5. Story telling
Conclusions
Climate Change AdaptationAdaptation is not new: social and natural
systems have always adapted to changeNew: pro-active adaptation (a hundred years)Complex?
ComplexityThere are many uncertainties:
Is there a bifurcation point?If yes: are we approaching the bifurcation
point or did we already pass it?What measures do we have to take and what
will be the effect?There are many people involved with
different opinions: we depend on them (e.g. politicians & citizens)
Etc.
When we accept that we might fail, the probability of success will increase
"Conceiving a safety without risk is like seeking love without courting the danger of rejection“ (Wildavsky, 1988)
2. The Power of PracticeComplex processes can only be dealt with in
practicePrudence: develop practical knowledge
3. Making perceptions explicitPeople have different perceptions both about
problem and solutions (→ complexity)Many projects fail because people involved
pre-assume that other people have the same perception as they have
Ask:What do you think the problem is?What is your role?What is your responsibility?
Let’s adapt•Peak rain and flooding•Droughts – water shortage•Heat Island effect•Wind•Connection to other aspects of the urban environment (traffic, quality of housing, facilities, social safety, etc.)
City planning department
Dep of street & traffic
Dep of real estate
Private developers
Etcetera
Citizens
Schools
Organisations
Now Then
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Planning like this does not work for
complex processes
Naturalareas
HousingLeisure
Industrial
Agriculture
Waterstorage
Agriculture
Spatial organisation directs Water
Naturalareas
HousingLeisure
> HousingLeisure
Industrial
Waterstorage
Agriculture
Water directs spatial organisation
Story 2
Story 4
Story 1
Story 3
Story 5
Story 6
Story 7
Story 9
Story 8
Story n
Theoretical
concept 2
Theoretical
concept 3
Theoretical
concept 1
Theoretical
concept 4
Theoretical
concept 5
Specific
Generic
Narrative
A good narrativeA story with a head, a tail and a punch lineConstructed out of the languages that people
used to tell their stories (no scientific or political blabla)
It is specific, but also includes generic elementsIs recognised by the people that brought in the
storiesNew scientific knowledge is connected to itDecision makers cannot ignore itOften: it includes a metaphor
Story 2
Story 4
Story 1
Story 3
Story 5
Story 6
Story 7
Story 9
Story 8
Story n
Theoretical
concept 2
Theoretical
concept 3
Theoretical
concept 1
Theoretical
concept 4
Theoretical
concept 5
Specific
Generic
Narrative about ponds, litterand social safety
Conclusions1. When it is complex, accept that it is complex2. Real integration is only possible in practice,
so act as close to practice as possible and appreciate practitioners
3. Ask people involved specifically about their perceptions (goals, roles, responsibilities, etc.)
4. You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future: history will not fade away
5. Listen to stories and connect them to the theoretical concepts: constructing narratives