Dr Geoff Mulgan

Government ready

for the future

Kuala Lumpur, February 2012

What I’ll cover

A set of ideas about what government is for, what counts as success, the tools to be used,

cultures to cultivate, and how to be ahead of history:

How to innovate

Culture and skills

How to be strategic

What to measure

Lecture I: Innovation in government and

society

Nilanda Nilekani and the Universal Identifier Project: the questions

of boldness and viability?

India plans to issue each of its citizens with a biometric identity number. It’s aim is to cut corruption, mismanagement and red tape. If successful this will be the first biometrically verified universal ID implemented on a national scale. India is forging new ground and hoping to prevent identity theft, social welfare fraud deter illegal migration, boost counter-terrorism efforts and provide access to banking, telecom accounts and government agencies for India’s poorest (barely 20 percent of Indians have bank accounts). It is also believed that it could spur direct government cash transfers bypassing corrupt local officials. Another stated goal of the UID programme is to create a cashless society. Citizens will be able to pay for things with a fingerprint scan.

Both Nilanda Nilekani, ,a billionaire who left a comfortable position as co-founder of outsource giant Infosys to head the Unique identification Authority of India (UIDAI), and the National Population Register, (NPR) are working in partnership enrolling citizens to their respective programs simultaneously with the universal ID program authorised to register up to 600 million people. The two agencies are supposed to share captured data and figure out ways to cooperate. Partnerships between the private sector and India’s rigid bureaucracy are rare.

The ambitious programme will fit each of India’s 2.5 billion residents with a Unique identification number (UID). Each number will be tied into three pieces of biometric data, fingerprints (all ten digits), iris scans (both eyes), and a picture of the face. More than 120 million numbers have been issued so far under the programme, with a goal of 200 million by March and 600 million by 2014.

1 Prompts

2 Proposals

3 Prototypes

4 Sustaining

5 Scaling

6 Systemic change

Key stages of innovation

1 Prompts

2 Proposals

3 Prototypes

4 Sustaining

5 Scaling

6 Systemic change

Trends (dementia, rising

LTCs etc.)

Big data

International examples

of innovation

Public spending forecasts

Failure demand

analysis

User experience

Calls for ideas

Co-design

Modelling costs/benefits

CICs and spin outs

Horizon scanning

Asset mapping

Literature reviews

Patient feedback

Identifying new markets

Commissioning pilots

Rapid prototyping

Integrated care pathways

Social impact bonds

Preventative investment

models

Metrics for measuring

shared value Analysis of business

case

Service/business models

Appraisal, performance

management tools

Tariff adjustments

RCTs, control groups

Whole system

demonstrators

HIAP

Innovation

Funds

Venturing

Tools for integrating

health and social care

National Commissioning

Procurement

Social entrepreneur in

residence

Predictive modelling

Health as an example

Open innovation

Social innovation

Innovation in servicesUser innovation

decentralised

centralised

internalexternal

Challenge.gov

Idea Factory

Strategy Units

Prizes

accelerators

Skunk works

Collaboratives

SOCIAL DESIGN TOOLS ™

^ inversion (eg patients become doctors)

∫ integration (eg personal advisers, one stop shops, portals, speeding flow)

x extension (eg extended schools, outreach)

∂ differentiation (segmenting services by groups, or personalisation)

+ addition (getting GPs to do a new test, libraries running speech therapy)

- subtraction (no frills, cutting targets, decluttering)

t translation (airport management into hospitals, business planning into families)

g grafting an element from one field into another, creating a new fusion (coaching into a secondary

school)

∞ creative extremism – pushing ideas and methods to their furthest boundaries

1 Prompts

2 Proposals

3 Prototypes

4 Sustaining

5 Scaling

6 Systemic change

Time

Fun

din

g %

Declining ratios of funding at successive stages

Systems and policy design

Scaling, diffusion, spread

Innovation, experiment, creativity

Three levels for a comprehensive public or

innovation strategy

Lecture II: Changing civil service culture and

skills to be fit for the future

Jocelyne Bourgon, former head of the

Canadian civil service - an advocate of a new

set of skills

Mastery of new tools

Mobilisation as well as management

Resilience as well as efficiency

Relationships as well as performance

‘Always-on’ communication

Information, Education & Advice

•Provision of information

•Public education campaignsTeenage pregnancy; AIDS campaigns

•Reporting & disclosure requirements Financial services

•Labelling Food ingredients

•Advisory services

•Representation services

•Open data requirements

Self-Regulation

•Voluntary agreements Advertising standards; Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives

•Codes of practice Banking Code

•Co-regulation

Economic Instruments

•Taxes Tobacco duty; fuel duty

•Charges Congestion charges; road pricing

•Subsidies, tax credits & vouchers R&D tax credits;

•Benefits & allowances

• Tradeable permits & quotasCarbon emissions trading scheme

•Award & auctioning of franchises and licensesMobile phones; airport landing slots

•Government loans, loan guarantees and insurance

Direct Intervention/provision

•Direct provision of services (including co-production) Police; Armed Forces; Hospitals; Schools

•Commissioning of services (from public, private and/or voluntary sectors) Private prisons; healthcare; welfare•Provision of infrastructure: egscience parks

Regulation & Other Legislation

•Price & market structure regulation

•Production & consumption regulation eg planning rules; •Standards setting regulationAccreditation

•Prescription & prohibition legislation Criminal justice; Banning tobacco advertising; Drunk driving

•Rights & representation legislation or regulation

Transnational

•Open coordination EU budget

• Special vehicles: eg HIV/AIDS, IFF•Justice: eg ICC

A growing menu of policy tools

Lecture III: Strategy and good policy making in

government

Donald Henderson and the

eradication of smallpox – an

exemplar of public sector strategy

Public strategy has achieved many unlikely successes, but few as unambiguous as the successful eradication of smallpox in

the 1960s and 1970s, the first and only case of its kind. Smallpox had been a cruel and efficient killer all over the world. 100

million died as a result of warfare in the 20th century; 300m died of small pox, which is highly contagious as well as untreatable.

There were nearly 15 million cases as recently as the late 1960s, when the World Health Organisation (WHO) committed itself

to eradicating the disease, and gave the task to an unusually imaginative official, Donald Henderson . At first the many public

agencies involved in the field believed that the primary goal was mass vaccination. Vaccination appealed to governments

because it was very visible, measurable and appeared to offer a direct link between inputs and outputs. Large scale

programmes could be planned, taking advantage of freeze dried vaccines which had been developed by the Lister Institute in

London, and a jet injector that could do over 1000 vaccinations an hour which had been developed by the US National

Communicable Disease Center. Yet it soon became clear that on their own these programmes wouldn’t work. In particular they

were too inflexible to quickly contain new outbreaks, which required quick surveillance and containment led by teams that could

quickly spot incidences of smallpox, and innovate their own methods fitted to local customs, such as registers to track rumours

and smallpox recognition cards. The whole programme was founded on medical knowledge about the disease, but also

depended on how operational information was gathered, shared and then used. The central idea was ‘ring immunisation’ –

rapid action to immunize everyone in the vicinity of an outbreak. Strict rules for data collection, and action, were imposed by

the WHO. For example, there was a rule that containment of any outbreak had to start within 48 hours of its discovery -

motivating the data collectors that their information would be quickly put to use. In India every case of rashes or fevers was

recorded and monitored and treated as smallpox unless proven otherwise. In some areas new cases prompted extensive room

to room searches as well as rapid actions, for example, to vaccinate everyone within a one mile radius of an initial case. For

the people working in the field, training involved simulations and real village level exercises, usually run by junior staff rather

than high ranking clinicians. Resources were then allocated according to strict rules – villages with recent outbreaks, for

example, received a standard complement of petrol, vaccines, staff and a jeep. At the same time there was constant

evaluation of how different teams were faring, with the findings shared between the largely independent national programmes.

In 1977 the last case of smallpox was found in Somalia, prompting the then director general of the WHO, Dr Mahler, to describe

the programme’s success as a ‘triumph of management not medicine’.

1. PurposesWhat matters & what’s valued;

needs, aspirations, beliefs

4. Actionsstrategies, policies,

implementation, systems,

money, cultures, structures

3. DirectionsWhere to go: strategic

priorities, targets, sequences

2.Environ-

mentsContexts for action:

future threats &

opportunities,

capacities, causes

and systems

5.LearningPolitical and public

feedback,

performance data,

evaluation

Public

value

Emergent strategies –

richer in power than

knowledge

Control strategies – rich

in power and knowledge

Distributed strategy – no

centralised command of

power or knowledge

Insurgent/collaborative

strategies – richer in

knowledge than power

- Knowledge +

-P

ow

er

+

18

Changing behaviour as an example

Lecture IV: New types of

measurement in government

Florence Nightingale - a pioneer of

the use of statistics to understand

and solve problems

22

Why do you need to measure?

What should you measure?

What makes a measurement good?

24

Key Stage 2 Results against Budget Share per Pupil

Maintained Primary Schools excluding Middle Deemed Schools

15

20

25

30

35

£1,200 £1,400 £1,600 £1,800 £2,000 £2,200 £2,400 £2,600 £2,800 £3,000 £3,200 £3,400 £3,600 £3,800 £4,000

School Budget Share between £1,200 and £4,000 per FTE Pupil 2002-2003 Deflated by ACA

Key S

tag

e 2

Resu

lts 2

001/2

002

Avera

ge

Po

int

Sco

re

FSM Eligibility >0% <=8% FSM Elibility >8% <=20% FSM Eligibility >20% <=35%

FSM Eligibility >35% <=50% FSM Eligibility >50%

y = -0.00038x1 + -6.38022x2 + 29.44351

R2 = 0.348773

x1 = School Budget Share per FTE Pupil

x2 = % FSM Eligibility

School performance correlated with socio-economic position

Slide 26 The Young Foundation 2010

Slide 27

Cost per Life Year Gained in Good Health of Interventions to Tackle Obesity

Childhood obesity