Governing for the Future: How to Bring the Long-Term Into Short-Term Political Focus

8/10/2019 Governing for the Future: How to Bring the Long-Term Into Short-Term Political Focus

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Governing for the Future:How to bring the long-term into

short-term political focus

Jonathan Boston

Professor of Public PolicySchool of GovernmentVictoria University of Wellington

Fulbright Fellow, American University

Paer reare! for a seminar at the "entre for #nvironmental Policy,School of Public Affairs, American University, Washington $%"%

& 'ovember ()*+

Gouverner, cest prvoir: to govern is to foresee.

Pierre en!-s France .former French Prime inister/

The longer you can look back, the further you can look forward

Winston "hurchill .former British Prime inister/

The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.et us move forward with strong and active faith.

Fran0lin $elano 1oosevelt .former American Presi!ent/

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Introduction

2han0 you for the invitation to sea0 here this evening% 3 owe a great !ebt of gratitu!e to Professor $anFiorino an! his colleagues in the School of Public Affairs at American University for generously hostingme !uring my Fulbright Fellowshi in the Unite! States this Fall% Washington $%"% is a stimulating,

engaging an! enriching city in which to sen! time as a olicy researcher, an! 3 am immensely gratefulto all those who have assiste! me in various ways, not least those who have agree! to be interviewe!%

2he broa! toic of my current research ro4ect is 5governing for the future6 how to bring the long7terminto short7term olitical focus8% 2o ut it !ifferently, how can we increase the olitical salience to!ay oflong7term ris0s an! looming olicy crises given the human ten!ency to !iscount or ignore roblems thatseem !istant, remote or abstract9 2he basic governance challenge can be !efine! in various ways, but acommonly resente! version is as follows6 there are strong olitical incentives for !emocratically7electe!governments to focus on olicy issues of imme!iate ublic concern an! to give riority to olicy otionswith ositive, short7term electoral ayoffs% But if such incentives !rive their !ecisions, then long7termris0s : whether fiscal, environmental or social : will be given insufficient weight, thus contributing togreater costs or fewer benefits in the future% As Warren Buffet .*;


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3n ()** the olitical scientist Alan Jacobs ublishe! a lan!mar0 boo0 entitle! Governing for the ongTerm: !emocracy and the "olitics of #nvestment% #ssentially, the boo0 is about the olitics of time6 how!o olicy7ma0ers han!le inter7temoral olicy tra!e7offs an! how can inter7temoral olicy choices bestbe e=laine!9 2o ?uote6

2he olitics of ublic olicy is at once a struggle over who gets what an! a struggle over when%3n !esigning state action, governments face choices not 4ust about the cross7sectional inci!enceof gains an! losses, but also about how the benefits an! bur!ens of olicy shoul! be allocate!over time% 3n arenas ranging from environmental rotection to economic reform to themanagement of scarce natural resources, the imact of ublic olicy on citi@ens an! societiesmay !een! as much on the inter7temoral character of governments8 !ecisions as on their!istributive rofile .()**, %(+*/%

Jacobs !evelos a rigorous an! elaborate theoretical framewor0 to hel e=lain the inter7temoralchoices ma!e by !emocratic governments over the ast century or more, using retirement incomesolicies .or ension schemes/ in four countries : Britain, "ana!a, Germany an! the Unite! States : toe=lore, test an! illustrate his aroach% Cis analysis of how to un!erstan! an! e=lain the olitics of thelong term, an! in articular the e=tent of olicy investments for the future, is both fascinating an!ersuasive%

3n brief, he argues that three main factors e=lain the inter7temoral choices of olicy ma0ers in!emocracies6 the !egree of electoral safety they en4oyD the e=ecte! long7term social returnsD an! theinstitutional caacity at their !isosal, most notably the way olitical institutions structure theoortunities an! tra!e7offs for the cost7bearing grous within society% From this ersective, long7termolicy investments, esecially those which entail short7term social costs in the interests of long7termsocial gains, are most li0ely un!er the following three con!itions%First, olicy ma0ers en4oy a !egree ofelectoral safety or even insulation from cometitive olitical forces% Secon!, the olitical elites aregenerally agree! that the roose! olicy will !eliver long7term social returns an! the ris0s of failure arelow .e%g% because the olicy can be !esigne! in ways that re!uce the otential for olitical oortunismin the future/% 2hir!, the structure of oortunities an! tra!e7offs facing well7organi@e! grous is such

that a long7term investment strategy aears to be a!e?uately aealing% 3f one or more of thesecon!itions is not met, long7term olicy investments are less li0ely to occur resulting in net losses tosociety in the future%

Jacobs8 stimulating analysis oses many critical ?uestions% >ne of the most imortant is whether our!emocratic olitical institutions an! the rocesses of !ecision7ma0ing can be !esigne! in ways thatincrease the rosects of wise long7term 5olicy investments8 : that is, olicy interventions which helcreate a better future either by generating long7term social gains or by re!ucing long7term harm, ris0 an!vulnerability% Put !ifferently, are there ways to encourage olicy far7sighte!ness in !emocratic systemsan! thereby better rotect the interests of eole living many years, !eca!es or even centuries in thefuture9 An!, if so, what articular strategies, institutional reforms, olicy changes or concetualinnovations are most li0ely to achieve such a goal9

>f course, there is no shortage of ime!iments% Any en!eavour to ti the scales in favour of ru!entlong7term olicy investments must conten! not merely with !ee uncertainty, cognitive limitations, artycometition, i!eological !ivisions, ethical conflicts an! low olitical trust, but also the abi!ing sway ofnarrow self7interest an! the constant temtation to refer short7term over long7term gains% oreover,even the most far7sighte! lea!ers cannot bin! their successors to ursue soun! long7term governance%2he re!atory roclivities of human beings must inevitably remain a constant threat%

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Bear in min! that the term 5olicy investment8 is not limite! to the investment of ublic fun!s or even theru!ent management of ublic resources in all their many an! varie! forms% 2he issue is much larger an!e=ten!s to the entire framewor0 of ublic olicy an! every level of government% 2his inclu!es theregulation of all those forms of human behaviour, whether ublic or rivate, which have the otential toimact on long7term economic, social an! environmental outcomes% >f articular imortance is theincentive structure governing rivate sector investment% Annually, many trillions of !ollars of rivatecaital are investe! globally in new long7term assets .e%g% in energy, transort, telecommunications an!other forms of infrastructure/% Whether this investment contributes to, or un!ermines, long7termeconomic, social an! environmental sustainability is of fun!amental imortance%

2he ?uestion of whether ru!ent 5olicy investment8 can be encourage!, an! if so by what means, lies atthe heart of my current research en!eavours% #ssentially, this is an issue of governance, esecially inter7temoral governance% 'ecessarily, this inclu!es, but is not limite! to, what Eeon Fuerth .()*(, ()*/refers to as 5anticiatory governance8% 2he fun!amental challenge, in short, is how to imrove the ?ualityof long7term !emocratic governance%

The Long-Term Democratic Governance Problem

For simlicity, this challenge can be calle! 5the long7term !emocratic governance roblem8 .or the 5long7term governance roblem8 for short/% #ach wor! in this brief !escrition is imortant an! nee!sun!erscoring%

The time horizon

5Eong7term8 imlies an e=ten!e! timeframe% 2he recise time hori@on will !een! on the articularolicy conte=t, but it will tyically be years, often !eca!es an! sometimes much longer% 3n the case ofclimate change olicy, for instance, the relevant timeframes, given the very long lags in the climatesystem, are centuries or millennia% Cence, mitigation initiatives will nee! to be ursue! over manygenerations, an! a!atation efforts for much longer .3P"", ()*D ()*+a, ()*+b/% >r to ta0e a !ifferentolicy e=amle, such as a!!itional ublic investments to enhance the cognitive !eveloment an!e!ucation of young chil!ren from !erive! bac0groun!s% 2here is robust evi!ence that well7!esigne! an!

aroriately targete! early invention rogrammes have the otential to !eliver much better outcomesover the life7course of the reciients, inclu!ing better health, imrove! e!ucational attainment, enhance!emloyment rosects an! higher life7time earnings ."onti an! Cec0man ()*(D $uncan an! agnuson,()*D $uncan et al%, ()*)D #arly Action 2as0force, ()*+D Cec0man, ())


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never7en!ing series of efforts to a!!ress% An! even if comlete an! !urable solutions can be foun!, newan! e?ually !ifficult roblems are constantly emerging% 2he !ilemma of how to govern well for the long7term, therefore, is en!uring an! relentlessD it confronts each an! every generation of olicy7ma0ersD it isnot limite! to one articular eoch% 2o be sure, the recise contours an! the secific manifestations willbe constantly evolving, thereby osing fresh, novel an! !istinctive challenges for each successivegeneration% But the broa! structure of the roblem : namely, of how best to encourage ru!ent inter7temoral !ecision7ma0ing : remains the same%

Cence, the heart of the roblem is about governance, not articular olicy issues% At the same time, ofcourse, the roblem manifests itself in numerous !iscrete olicy conte=ts% #fforts to a!!ress thegovernance roblem must, therefore, give roer attention to the !istinctive content an! attributes of thevarious olicy roblems where inter7temoral challenges are most acute% #=amles inclu!e6

*% ensuring ru!ent long7term fiscal managementD(% ensuring effective environmental stewar!shiD% ensuring a!e?uate investment in the construction an! maintenance of long7term infrastructureD+% ensuring a!e?uate fun!ing of reventative olicy measures .e%g% risoner reintegration an! health

care/D&% ensuring the wise management of ris0, inclu!ing systemic ris0D% ensuring soun! emergency management, inclu!ing reare!ness for low7robability but high

imact eventsDf course, within all !emocracies many other actors e=ercise significant governanceresonsibilities : e%g% those serving on the governing bo!ies of regulatory agencies, statutory boar!s,health care an! social service rovi!ers, e!ucation institutions, an! so forth% Such eole often haveconsi!erable !iscretion an! oversee the oerations of organi@ations, many of which are very large an!which face a multilicity of long7term challenges .e%g% the maintenance of ma4or caital assets,

investment in new long7term infrastructure, the management of long7term contracts, wor0force lanning,coing with technological change, etc%/% #?ually, in or!er to gui!e their organi@ations successfully in thenear7term an! invest wisely for the future they must give aroriate attention to relevant long7termtren!s, !eveloments, ris0s an! oortunities% Plainly, a failure to e=ercise ru!ent long7term governanceat the organi@ational level will have conse?uences for the overall ?uality of a nation8s governance% Part ofthe challenge of achieving goo!, long7term, !emocratic governance, therefore, is to ensure that themultilicity of ublic agencies an! entities .i%e% at all levels of government/ are well governe! : an!,

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moreover, that there are similarly strong incentives for the goo! stewar!shi of rivate organi@ations,whether commercial or non7commercial%

Problem

2he wor! 5roblem8 also !eserves emhasis% Wea0, ina!e?uate or inet long7term governance can causegrave harm, both to human beings an! the natural environment% orally, therefore, it matters% >ur aimshoul! be goo! long7term governance% 2his involves, amongst other things, efforts to revent orminimi@e ba! futures, encourage an! facilitate goo! futures, i!entify an! manage ris0s, an! reare forthe inevitable shoc0s an! surrises that will occur% Poor long7term governance fails to !o such thingsD itlac0s a coherent vision, clear goals an! soun!ly7base! strategiesD it fails to anticiate ris0s or buil!resilienceD an! it fails to hel shae the future in !esirable !irections% For those who rea theconse?uences, the roblem is rea!ily aarent%

But in what ways an! to what e=tent !o !emocracies encounter a long7term governance roblem9 Whatis the aroriate stan!ar! of governance to 4u!ge such matters9 What are the relevant criteria9 After all,reasonable eole may !iffer vigorously over how best to !istribute bur!ens an! benefits over longtimeframes, what riority to give to mitigating certain 0in!s of ris0, an! what !iscount rate to aly% 3 !onot reten! that there are simle answers to such ?uestions% 2here are many lausible ethical norms,rinciles an! other consi!erations, an! these are often in tension% 3n!ee!, some of the relevantrinciles, such as the recautionary rincile, have numerous !ifferent an! cometing interretations%

>ne ossible aroach woul! be to !efine the stan!ar! of goo! governance in terms of minimi@ingclearly foreseeable, serious, avoi!able an! un4ustifie! future harms% For instance, if a future harm isrea!ily foreseeable, serious an! avoi!able, an! if the re?uire! actions to revent, or at least minimi@e,such harm are easily affor!able, then a failure to ta0e the necessary stes to avert the harm woul! bemorally un4ustifie!% >f course, alying such a stan!ar! in ractice resents !ifficulties% Eegitimate?uestions may arise about the robability or seriousness of the harm in ?uestion, or whether it canrealistically be avoi!e! .or minimi@e!/, or whether intervening is 4ustifie! given the oortunity costsinvolve!% Similarly, there is the issue of whether a failure to invest a!e?uately to achieve foreseeablelong7term benefits is as e?ually un4ustifie! as a failure to avert an avoi!able harm% Be that as it may,

reasonable eole are li0ely to be able to agree, at least in rincile, that it is !esirable to revent .or atleast minimi@e/ a clearly foreseeable, reventable an! serious future harm%

With such consi!erations in min!, are !emocracies falling short an!, if so, how serious is the roblem9Further, is it ossible to sustain the roosition that !emocracies e=hibit 5olitical short7termism8, 5olicymyoia8 or 5olicy short7sighte!ness89 $o they manifest, to ?uote Jacobs .()**, %(/ a 5substantialolicy tilt towar! the short run8, thereby inflicting unnecessary an! un4ustifie! future harms9 An! if so,how wi!esrea!, !eely7entrenche! an! troubling are such henomena9 2o answer such ?uestionscarefully an! rigorously woul! re?uire a searate aer% Cere there is sace for 4ust a few briefobservations%

First, a substantial bo!y of aca!emic scholarshi covering multile !emocracies an! multile olicy

!omains either assumes or reorts that a roblem e=ists .see, for instance, Boston an! Eem, ()**D$ror, ())D the >=for! artin "ommission, ()*/% 2he scholarly literature also oints to the roblembeing relatively common an! often serious% 3n!ee!, some of the relevant literature suggests that the long7term governance roblem, an! how to a!!ress it, constitutes one of the most !aunting challenges facinghumanity% Without better long7term governance, it is argue!, humanity will inflict severe an! in somecases irreversible, !amage, inclu!ing a massive loss of bio!iversity an! a li0ely shift to a more unstablean! inhositable climate system% .3n relation to climate change ris0s, for instance, see Garnaut, ())HD

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Cansen, ());D 3P"", ())


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3n Australasia an! the South Pacific, for instance, there are many environmental issues where long7terminterests have been overri!!en by short7term olitical consi!erations% 2he failure to a!!ressanthroogenic climate change reresents the most concerning e=amle% $esite overwhelming scientificevi!ence regar!ing the !amaging imacts of unabate! anthroogenic climate change, the centre7rightcoalition government in Australia abolishe! the carbon ta= in June ()*+, claiming that rice7base!mechanisms are neither necessary nor !esirable for re!ucing emissions% Several months later, inSetember ()*+, the coalition launche! a new energy strategy .$eartment of 3n!ustry, ()*+/% 2hefun!amental aim is to ma0e Australia an 5energy suerower8 : not a renewableenergy suerower, buta fossil fuelsuerower% Significantly, the strategy contains no e=ectation that carbon cature an!storage will be wi!ely use! in the future, let alone man!ate!% Cence, it must be assume! that the e=tragreenhouse gas emissions resulting from the !esire! increase in fossil fuel e=loration an! ro!uctionwill be !estine! for the atmoshere%

Un!eterre! by such consi!erations, the Australian Prime inister, 2ony Abbott, believes that 5few thingsmore !amaging to our future than leaving coal in the groun!8 . The Guardian, * >ctober ()*+/%"onsistent with this view he !eclare!, when oening the new K+%( billion "aval 1i!ge coalmine inLueenslan! in mi!7>ctober ()*+, that 5coal is goo! for humanity8, 5vital for the future energy nee!s ofthe worl!8 an! shoul! not be !emoni@e!% 2he oening mar0e!, he sai!, 5a great !ay for the worl!8 M52hetra4ectory shoul! be u an! u an! u in the years an! !eca!es to come8D an! it is 5the resonsibility forgovernment to try to ensure that we are there ma0ing it easier for everyone wanting to have a go8%

Across the 2asman in 'ew ealan!, the current 'ational7le! government has a target to re!ucegreenhouse gas emissions by &)N by ()&) comare! with *;;) levels% But it has no long7term strategyto achieve this target .acy, ()*+/% oreover, it has systematically wea0ene! the emissions tra!ingscheme, intro!uce! by the revious Eabour7le! government in ())H, thereby ren!ering it increasinglyineffective .Bertram an! 2erry, ()*)D "ameron, ()**D acey, ()*+/% 2he government has also !eci!e! toe=clu!e about &)N of the country8s greenhouse gas emissions from the scheme : aarently forever%Ei0e their Australia counterarts, the 'ew ealan! authorities are committe! to boosting oil an! gase=loration an! ro!uction : an! ?uic0ly% 2he unso0en strategy is to ma0e as much money as ossiblefrom fossil fuel ro!uction before the global community finally ta0es firm action to limit greenhouse gasemissions% Australia an! 'ew ealan! are not alone in a!oting this aroach% Bra@il, "ana!a an! manyother countries are almost certainly following a similar ath%

3t must of course be ac0nowle!ge! that climate change is a highly comle= olicy issue .see Stern, ())D'or!haus, ()*/% 3t is characteri@e! by a global collective action roblem, huge uncertainties relating toimacts, timeframes an! otential technological solutions, a range of challenging satial an! inter7temoral !istributional issues, comle= olitically7relevant asymmetries, a !aunting array of olicyotions an! tra!e7offs, an! formi!able ethical an! regulatory issues% 3n these circumstances, it woul! beunwarrante! to blame ina!e?uate olicy resonses by many governments over recent !eca!es merely onolitical short7sighte!ness or the alication of an un4ustifiably high !iscount rate% Plainly, the causes ofthe olicy !ysfunction in this area are multile%

et much simler olicy issues can be i!entifie! where olitical short7termism is more clearly the chiefculrit% An obvious case involves the failure of many governments to ta0e aroriate early correctivemeasures to !eal with the well7un!erstoo! fiscal conse?uences of !emograhic change% 2he currentun!erfun!ing of Social Security in the Unite! States is a classic e=amle .see "ommittee on the FiscalFuture of the Unite! States, ()*)D 'APA, ()*+/% >n e=isting olicy settings, the main Social Security2rust Fun! .the >l!7Age an! Survivors 3nsurance/ will be fully e=hauste! by aroun! (), less than ()years away% et here is an issue of relative simlicity6 the relevant mo!eling of future liabilities isstraightforwar!D there is a high level of re!ictablyD the evi!ence highlighting the unsustainability ofcurrent olicy settings is both comelling an! wi!ely un!erstoo!D there are a number of straightforwar!

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olicy otions, an! their ros an! cons are clear% et !esite this, olicy ma0ers have chosen to !elayta0ing action, thus constraining future !ecisions an! ma0ing the available choices all the har!er%

2here are many other olicy e=amles where short7termism casts a long sha!ow% Amongst these is thefailure of many governments across the !emocratic worl! to invest a!e?uately in cost7effective,evi!ence7base! rogrammes, such as early intervention to a!!ress chil!hoo! overty, health nee!s an!learning !ifficulties .see Boston an! "hale, ()*+/% Ei0ewise, one can oint to the very mo!est ublicfun!s allocate! to health care revention when comare! to the huge resources !evote! to the rovisionof curative service, or the limite! investment in risoner rehabilitation an! reintegration !esite hugee=en!itures on correction services an! high rates of reci!ivism%3n summary, there is much evi!ence that !emocratic !ecision7ma0ers often short7change the future% 2hisevi!ence alies across numerous olicy !omains an! multile 4uris!ictions of wi!ely varyingconstitutional arrangements an! olitical cultures% Accor!ingly, it is reasonable to conclu!e that the long7term governance roblem is both real an! serious%

Research approach

2his research ro4ect has four main areas of focus% First, there is the issue of how best to !efine the long7term !emocratic governance roblem% Put !ifferently, is there one main roblem or a series of searateyet closely relate! roblems9 For instance, are !emocracies 5systematically biase! in favour of theresent8 as $ennis 2homson .())&/ conten!s9 Secon!, having !efine! the roblem or roblems, whatare the causes an! which are most imortant9 Further, to what e=tent an! in what ways !o the causesvary over time, between 4uris!ictions an! across relevant olicy !omains9 An! which of the causes canbe most rea!ily a!!resse!9 2hir!, what efforts have been ma!e .e%g% constitutional, institutional orregulatory/ over recent !eca!es within !emocracies to hel a!!ress the long7term governance robleman! how effective have these been9 Finally, what other ossible solutions have been a!vocate! an!which, if any, of these is li0ely to be feasible, effective an! !esirable9 While the roblem !efinition .or!efinitions/ an! the causes of the roblem are imortant to i!entify an! evaluate, the rimary ob4ective isto e=lore ossible solutions an! assess their merits%

3n un!erta0ing this investigation, 3 am focusing rimarily on the roblem of long7term governance indemocracies, an! more articularly countries with !eveloe! economies% 2his is not to suggest that non7!emocratic regimes are immune from the !ysfunctions of olitical short7termism or olicy short7sighte!ness, but my interest : at least for this ro4ect : lies in enhancing the ?uality of !emocraticgovernance rather than reforming non7!emocratic regimes% Further, 3 am limiting my consi!eration ofsolutions to those which can be regar!e! as broa!ly !emocratic in nature% 3 am not intereste! in anti7!emocratic solutions% 'o !oubt there are those who ?uestion whether feasible an! effective !emocraticsolutions can be foun!% From this ersective, benevolent !ictatorshi may offer the only viable wayforwar!% 2he evi!ence, in my view, !oes not 4ustify such a grim conclusion% Caving sai! this, in somearticular situations, the feasible, !emocratically accetable otions for imroving long7term governancemay be limite!%

y overall aroach is comarative an! ?ualitative% 3 am focusing rincially on the governance ofnation states, rather than global governance or the role of international organi@ations% But 3 recogni@e thatin many olicy areas : such as the management of systemic financial ris0s an! an!emics, an! thestewar!shi of the global commons : national an! international governance are ine=tricably lin0e!%Ei0ewise, my rimary focus is at the national or fe!eral level rather than the sub7national level%

For a variety of reasons, 3 am giving articular attention to the e=eriences of four !eveloe! countrieswith long7stan!ing !emocratic tra!itions : Finlan!, 'ew ealan!, the Unite! Oing!om an! the Unite!

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States% 2hese countries have !iverse constitutional framewor0s an! olitical institutions, as well assignificant i!eological, cultural an! olicy !ifferences% Such !ifferences hel illuminate the varie!!imensions of the long7term governance roblem% 2o hel ma0e the ro4ect manageable, 3 am focusingon a limite! selection of olicy issues rather than trying to cover all otentially relevant toics% 3n termsof !ata gathering, 3 am e=loring a wi!e range of secon!ary sources an! con!ucting oen7en!e! an!semi7structure! interviews with oliticians, civil servants, researchers, business lea!ers an! civil societyreresentatives in the four 4uris!ictions% 2o !ate, 3 have comlete! about


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Proposition 1: Enhancing long-term governance constitutes a wice! an! comple" problem# This

implies the nee! for caution an! realism about the prospects for improvement$ but provi!es no

groun!s for !espair

A !iagnosis of the roblem must rece!e any attemt to rescribe a solution% With resect to !iagnosis,the long7term governance roblem has many of the characteristics often associate! with so7calle!5wic0e!8 olicy roblems, as originally i!entifie! by 1ittel an! Webber .*;ne other !imension of the long7term governance challenge !eserves un!erscoring6 the roblem is

characteri@e! by a comle= relationshi between cause an! effect, with causal relations often being har!to establish with any certainty in a!vance% For instance, it is tyically unclear e=actly what effect aroosal 5solution8, such as an institutional reform or olicy change, will have on !ecision7ma0ers8 inter7temoral references or how it will affect their aroach to olicy roblems with significant inter7temoral tra!e7offs% We can, of course, surmise an! !raw on revious e=erience, but given themultifacete! an! constantly evolving nature of social environments we cannot be certain% 3n!ee!, causalrelationshis may only become clear in retrosect, erhas long after a articular course of action hasbeen a!ote!% Using the "ynefin .ronounce! "u7nev7in/ framewor0 !eveloe! by Snow!en an! Boone

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.())ffice in a ma4or reort in ())& on the challenges facing olicy7ma0ers in the (* st

century ma!e the following observations6

Some may be s0etical as to whether our olitical system is able to a!!ress long7term roblemsor commitments% Cowever, such s0eticism ignores ast e=amles of attention to long7termgoals% 2he interstate highway rogram too0 a generation to lan an! comlete% 2he SocialSecurity system was create! with very long time hori@ons in min! an! has un!ergone ma4orrestructuring in both *;, ())&, %H*/%

3n short, the available evi!ence !oes not suort the grim an! essimistic conclusions, often associate!with a ublic choice ersective, that olicy myoia is inevitable% Policy7ma0ers are not !riven solely bynarrow electoral imerativesD they are not simly oortunistic, untrouble! by long7term olicy goals,rogrammatic commitments or ethical rinciles% 'evertheless, by virtue of being a 5wic0e!8 roblem,none of the many solutions on offer can be e=ecte! to be fully effective or sustainable over lengthy timeerio!s% #ach generation of olicy7ma0ers must, therefore, continue to wrestle with the challenge%

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Proposition %: The gravit& of the long-term governance problem varies$ an! is particularl& acute in

certain political an! polic& conte"ts

While the long7term governance challenge arises in all !emocratic systems, the evi!ence also suggeststhat the magnitu!e an! comle=ity of the challenge varies% 1elevant conte=tual factors affecting thisvariability inclu!e the constitutional rules, the structure of organi@e! interests an! arty cometition, the!egree of i!eological olari@ation, the level of societal cohesion an! recirocity, an! the !egree to whichgovernments are truste!% 2here can be little !oubt, for instance, that securing agreement on how toa!!ress ma4or long7term issues, such as long7term fiscal sustainability, is much har!er when there aremultile veto oints, when the olicy community is !eely !ivi!e! i!eologically an! when trust ingovernment is low% Without at least a mo!est consensus on long7term olicy goals an! how best toachieve them, governing well for the future will be !ifficult : as is rea!ily aarent in the Unite! Statesat resent%

Similarly, articular 0in!s of olicy roblems ose esecially serious challenges for ru!ent long7termgovernance% 2he most !ifficult roblems are those e=hibiting one or more of the followingcharacteristics6 high comle=ityD low re!ictability an! causal certaintyD satially !iserse! effectsDimacts that are mostly e=erience! in the future an!or are largely invisible an! intangible .thusre!ucing the aarent urgency to reson!/D imacts that fall re!ominantly on olitically wea0 ormarginali@e! grousD an!, as note! earlier, roblems which re?uire investment7tye solutions .i%e% u7front costs are re?uire! in or!er to secure long7term benefits/% Cuman7in!uce! climate change e=hibitsmost, if not all, of these features, which hels account for the !ifficulty of securing ru!ent olicyresonses% But many olicy roblems also e=hibit investment7tye ayoff structures, thus creating atemtation for intergenerational buc07assing% Such temtations will be all the greater when the short7term costs are !irect, secific, certain, tangible an! visible while the long7term benefits are moregenerali@e!, less certain an! more intangible%

$ealing with asymmetrical inter7temoral ay7offs of this nature oses the har!est !ilemmas for thosesee0ing ru!ent long7term governance% 3t is also where the greatest effort is re?uire!% Possible solutionsmay inclu!e reframing the olicy roblem in a manner li0ely to broa!en the level of olitical suort ora!4usting the !istributional an! inter7temoral ayoffs in or!er to re!uce short7term oosition an!

electoral losses% "hanging the choice architecture facing citi@ens an! consumers may also offer a wayforwar! in certain olicy conte=ts .see Sunstein, ()*+D 2haler an! Sunstein, ())H/% 3 will return to theissue of olitical tactics shortly% For now the critical oint is this6 for a solution to be feasible an!effective it must be tailore! to the re?uirements of the secific constitutional, olitical an! olicy conte=t%Generic aroaches are unli0ely to gain traction% 2his brings me to a thir! roosition%

Proposition ': The long-term governance problem re(uires multiple solutions$ but man& of the

proposals that have been a!vance! in recent !eca!es are unliel& to meet the critical tests of

feasibilit&$ effectiveness an! !esirabilit&

#ven a cursory e=loration of the relevant literature !ealing with the challenges of long7term governancereveals an astonishing variety of reform roosals !esigne! to mitigate the roblem% * 2he roosals

1 See, for instance, Ascher, ());D Bin!er, ())D Boston et al%, ()*+D Boston an! Eem, ()**D $ewar, ())D

$obson, *;;D #0eli, ())&, ());D #lster an! Slagsta!, *;HHD Fuerth, ()*(D Gill et al%, ()**D Gon@ale@71icoy an!Gosseries, forthcomingD Goo!in, ())


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cover virtually every otion in the olicy tool 0itD they touch uon all stages of the olicy cycle, fromagen!a setting to evaluationD they a!!ress every level of ublic governance, inclu!ing reforms tointernational, national an! sub7national institutionsD an! they cover many !ifferent fiel!s of humanen!eavour, inclu!ing both the business an! not7for7rofit sectors% any of these roosals have beenimlemente! in one form or another somewhere across the !emocratic worl! over recent !eca!es, butmany others are novel an! unteste!%

2hus far, 3 have i!entifie! over a !o@en broa! solution 5tyes8 an! well over ) !istinct roosals% Butthat number woul! swell greatly if all the various combinations an! ermutations were inclu!e!% 2able *outlines the main solution tyes an!, within each tye, a number of secific roosals% Some e=amlesinclu!e6

*% reforms to global governance institutions, such as the creation of a Cigh "ommissioner forFuture GenerationsD

(% constitutional reforms, such as new or stronger rovisions to rotect the interests, welfare an!orrights of future generationsD

% the transfer of imortant !ecision7rights to in!een!ent, non7electe! bo!iesD+% changes to electoral rules an! voting rightsD&% changes to the !esign of e=ecutive an! legislative institutionsD% the strengthening of foresight mechanisms an! lanning rocessesD


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For unteste! roosals, assessing effectiveness oses even greater !ifficulties% 'evertheless, interventionlogics for each roosal can rea!ily be constructe! an! carefully scrutini@e!% For instance, the un!erlyingassumtions which embo!y the various stes in the causal chain can be i!entifie! an! their vali!ityassesse!% Ei0ewise, the ris0s of failure can be evaluate! an! ossible reme!ies consi!ere!% 2able (rovi!es some brief e=amles .the !etails of which coul! be greatly e=an!e!/% Given the uncertaintiessurroun!ing cause an! effect, however, !etermining categorically in a!vance whether a articularroosal will enhance ru!ent long7term governance is not ossible% 1ealistically, therefore, ane=erimental aroach is the only otion%

>verall, si= !istinct intervention logics un!erin the various roosals for a!!ressing the long7termgovernance roblem% 3n other wor!s, each of the roosals is resume! to ma0e a !ifference through oneor more of the following mechanisms6

*% By changing the motivesof !ecision7ma0ers .i%e% values, norms, references, riorities, etc%/ an!activating future7oriente! interests an! concerns .or what might be regar!e! as 5internal!rivers8/D

(% By enhancing the capacityto ma0e farsighte! !ecisions .e%g% via better information, analyticalresources, foresight rocesses, mo!elling, more holistic olicy framewor0s, etc%/D

% By changing the formal constraintswithin which !ecisions are ma!e .e%g% via constitutionalrules, roce!ural rules an! substantive olicy rules to limit !ecision7ma0ers/D

+% By insulating!ecision7ma0ers from short7term olitical ressuresD&% By changing the olitical incentives facing !ecision7ma0ers .e%g% via changes to ublic

oinionreferences, olitical culture, the balance of olitical forces, accountability mechanisms,outcome7base! erformance measures, etc%/ .or what might be regar!e! as 5e=ternal !rivers8/Dan!

% By establishing new coordinatingmechanisms to enable !ecisions to be ta0en which woul!otherwise not be ossible .e%g% via new an!or stronger international agencies an! instruments/%

3n effect, each of these intervention logics relies on changing some asect of the decision conte)t orchoice architecturefacing olicy actors% But which articular logics are li0ely to be most effective an!

un!er what con!itions remains uncertain%

$etermining the overall !esirability of each roosal necessarily involves a normative 4u!gment, an!reasonable eole may well !iffer on their merits% For instance, there are some who believe that aconstitutional amen!ment re?uiring balance! bu!gets is the best, an! erhas only, way to avoi! long7term fiscal irresonsibility% any others, of course, re4ect such a roosal, arguing that this woul!constrain !ecision7ma0ers to an un!esirable e=tent an! wrec0 economic havoc% 3 strongly susect that thecritics are correct, an! in any case there are many other ways of encouraging greater fiscal !isciline.see, for instance, Boston an! Prebble, ()*D "ullen, ()*D Cagemann, ()**D Celler, ())a, ())b,())D Posner, ()**D 1e!burn, ()*+D Uton, ()*/%

3 have yet to comlete a roer evaluation of the !o@ens of roosals for mitigating the long7term

governance roblem% But my initial assessment is that many roosals, while no !oubt well7intentione!,are li0ely to be neither feasible .at least in many conte=ts/ nor effective% Similarly, the !esirability ofmany roosals is ?uestionable, whether on constitutional, hilosohical or ethical groun!s% For instance,there are various suggestions for changing voting rights an! the comosition of legislatures, such asre!ucing the age of eligibility for voting, weighting the votes of younger citi@ens more highly, removingthe right to vote from those over a certain age, an! rovi!ing for the reresentation of future generationsin legislative assemblies .see 2able */% 3n theory, such reforms are !esigne! to encourage governments togive greater weight to long7term interests an! better rotect the welfare of future generations% Cowever,

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the intervention logics often rest on ?uestionable assumtions, an! some of the roosals are inherentlyilliberal or anti7!emocratic% Ei0ewise, roosals for the moral enhancement of humanity through geneticmaniulation ose huge ethical concerns%

Base! on my initial insection, the tests of feasibility, effectiveness an! overall !esirability seem li0ely toremove a substantial number of roosals from serious contention% But this still leaves no shortage ofi!eas that may have merit% >f these, the following warrant articular attention6

*% strengthening an! e=an!ing the range of commitment !evices use! to incentivi@e an! constrainthe actions of !ecision7ma0ersD

(% enhancing the role of stewar!shi or guar!ian7tye organi@ationsD% imroving governments8 strategic foresight caacity an! better integrating this into the olicy

rocessD+% imroving the analytical framewor0s use! in olicy analysis .e%g% with resect to the han!ling of

!iscounting, natural caital an! ecosystem services, etc%/D&% enhancing the metrics emloye! for assessing, monitoring an! reorting on erformance .see

Stiglit@ et al% ());/D an!% !eveloing more comrehensive systems of national accounting .e%g% see the Worl! Ban0 ro4ect

on Wealth Accounting an! Valuation of #cosystem Services or WAV#S/%

With resect to ru!ent environmental stewar!shi, which is essential for goo! long7term governance,there is a strong case, in my view, for establishing new an! more !eman!ing rules for managing stoc0s ofnatural caital, both renewable an! non7renewable% 2he British government, for instance, establishe! a'atural "aital "ommittee in ()*( to a!vise on the sustainable use of natural assets .see 'atural "aital"ommittee, ()*, ()*+/% 2he "ommittee is consi!ering a number of far7reaching olicy rinciles togovern the management of natural caital stoc0s% 2he most !eman!ing of these woul! re?uire societiesto be?ueath to future generations an aggregate stoc0 of renewable an! non7renewable natural caital thatis at least e?uivalent to, if not better than, at resent% Un!er such an aroach, any loss of non$renewablenatural caital woul! nee! to be fully comensate! via 5e?uivalent8 forms of renewable natural caital.not by other forms of caital, such as manufacture! or human caital/ % Eosses of renewable naturalcaital woul! nee! to be fully comensate! via offsets of renewable natural caital elsewhere .see Celm,

()*+/% Alying such rules woul! ose a range of concetual, analytic an! measurement issues%'evertheless, roosals of this 0in! coul! have rofoun! conse?uences in terms of romotingenvironmental sustainability% 2hey woul!, of course, re?uire global imlementation to be fully effective%

Proposition ): Governing well for the future re(uires a focus on both the !eman!-si!e an! the suppl&-

si!e of the !emocratic process

3f the long7term governance roblem is to be mitigate!, it is essential to consi!er both the !eman!7si!ean! the suly7si!e of the !emocratic rocess ."oston, *;;H/% Fun!amentally, this means a!!ressing

olitical incentives, on the one han!, an! analytical an! !elivery caacity, on the other% Similarly, effortsare re?uire! at each stage of the olicy cycle to ensure that long7term interests are roerly i!entifie! an!weighe! in the balance% 2his must inclu!e attention to !ata sources, strategic foresight, the metho!s an!mo!els of olicy analysis, the criteria use! for !ecision7ma0ing, an! systems for olicy fee!bac0 an!evaluation%

>n the !eman!7si!e, !emocratically7electe! governments un!erstan!ably reson! to electoral ressures,with the ?uantity, attern an! intensity of these ressures affecting their olicy choices% As note! earlier,

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there are boun! to be strong electoral ressures for olicy7ma0ers to rioriti@e short7term interests overlonger7term consi!erations% Future generations, after all, have neither a voice nor a voteD an! there isevi!ence that current voters ten! to favour ro=imate ayoffs over !istant benefits .see Jacobs an!atthews, ()*(/% But olicy ma0ers are also in!een!ent actors6 their actions can hel shae the !eman!con!itions in which they oerateD their actions also influence what !eman!s are lace! on other actors inthe olicy community, inclu!ing olicy a!visers, regulators an! those involve! in service !elivery% At thesame time, the caacity of electe! officials to reson! to !eman!7si!e ressures !een!s on varioussuly7si!e factors, inclu!ing the olicy instruments that are available, an! the ease an! effectivenesswith which these instruments can be !eloye!%

>verall, a!!ressing the !eman!7si!e is more challenging than the suly7si!eD certainly this has been theview of interviewees% 3f the inter7temoral asymmetry on the !eman!7si!e is to be mitigate!, ways mustbe foun! of bringing the long7term into short7term olitical focusD that is to say, we nee! to increase theincentives on olicy7ma0ers to give roer attention to future interests% >bviously one otion, at leastconcetually, is to shift voters8 inter7temoral references so that they give greater weight to their futureinterests .i%e% their future selves/ an! the generations who will follow% But this is not easy, an! even whenlong7term threats become more olitically salient : erhas as a result of ma4or focusing events :sustaining a heightene! focus on the future for lengthy erio!s is !ifficult% While not ignoring the issueof voters8 inter7temoral references, therefore, other ways of magnifying the voice of the future nee! tobe foun!% 2his coul! inclu!e a!!itional efforts to i!entify, monitor an! reort on long7term ris0s an!vulnerabilities, roce!ural or even legal re?uirements for !ecision7ma0ers to ta0e future interestsroerly into account in all !ecisions with significant long7term conse?uences, an! the establishment orstrengthening of agencies with long7term guar!ianshi roles : that is, agencies which have a formalman!ate to sea0 for, or rotect, future interests, inclu!ing a healthy an! sustainable environment% Asart of such a strategy, there must be a roer emhasis on the foresight caability of governments,which 3 will turn to shortly%

But one other oint !eserves highlighting6 if there is only a limite! caacity to change the structure ofolitical !eman! to incentivi@e olicy7ma0ers to give a!e?uate weight to long7term consi!erations, thenother otions must be consi!ere!% 2hese inclu!e a!!itional legislative constraintson what policy$makersare able to decide an! transferring formal decision$rightson !esignate! olicy matters to bo!ies that are

artially insulate! from short7term olitical ressures% 3n each case, of course, the overall !esirability ofsuch otions must be carefully weighe!% 'ot all constraints an! insulating techni?ues are !emocraticallyaccetable%

Proposition *: +mproving strategic foresight capabilit& is criticall& important$ but foresight activities

must be properl& embe!!e! within the political s&stem an! a!e(uatel& integrate! into !a&-to-!a&

polic&-maing

All governments in !eveloe! !emocracies un!erta0e or sonsor strategic foresight activities of various0in!s% But countries !iffer greatly in the e=tent to which they invest in structure! foresight, the 0in!s ofactivities that are con!ucte!, how well such activities are embe!!e! within the olitical system an! howmuch they influence !ay7to7!ay governmental !ecision7ma0ing .see $reyer an! Stang, ()*D Fuerth,

()*(/% Britain, "ana!a, Finlan! an! Singaore, for instance, invest ?uite heavily .e%g% see the numerousreorts of Cori@ons "ana!a on long7term issues/%

3n brief, foresight involves ro!ucing greater 0nowle!ge of ossible futures% As Sar!ar .()*)/ highlights,the focus is neither on rohesy nor re!iction : that is, 0nowle!ge of what willhaen : but rather5manufacture! 0nowle!ge of QaR restrictive number of ossibilities8% Such ossibilities are generate! via arange of metho!ologies, such as hori@on scanning, the analysis of tren!s an! the creation of scenarios,an! various techni?ues, such as the $elhi metho!, which are !esigne! to ascertain the level of

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agreement amongst e=erts about the li0elihoo! of certain outcomes .$reyer an! Stang, ()*D Eemertet al%, ())D Eemert, ())


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imact of imortant tren!s an! !eveloments .e%g% new technologies/, an! review thegovernment8s reort on the future%

2hese 5illars8 sit on to of the normal governmental rocesses which are fun!amental to soun! !ecision7ma0ing, inclu!ing ru!ent long7term governance6 the generation of robust an! comrehensive !ata .e%g%via the system of national statistics/, the con!uct of !etail olicy analysis, the setting of goals, targets an!strategies for secific olicy areas, the regular rearation of !etaile!, long7term revenue an!e=en!iture forecasts, the rioriti@e! allocation of resources through the annual bu!get rocess, an! theimlementation of rigorous erformance management systems .inclu!ing regular monitoring, reortingan! evaluation/%

2he Finnish foresight mo!el has un!oubte! strengths% First, it encourages all the 0ey actors in the olicycommunity : cabinet ministers, arliamentarians, senior civil servants, business lea!ers, civil societyreresentatives an! researchers : to reflect erio!ically on some of the ma4or long7term challenges facingFinlan! an! how these might be a!!resse!% 3t also brings together many of these actors in !eliberativesettings, both in the caital .Celsin0i/ an! other centres across the country% 3n so !oing, it hels foster a!eeer un!erstan!ing of, an! to some e=tent a share! ersective regar!ing, the main roblems that nee!to be tac0le!, the nature of the olicy tra!e7offs an! choices available, an! the strengths an! wea0nessesof the rincial otions% While such a rocess !oes not necessarily generate a olitical consensus on thebest way forwar!, it certainly rovi!es an oortunity for consensus buil!ing an! robably ma0es iteasier olitically for governments to ma0e tough !ecisions, inclu!ing investment7tye !ecisions whichentail the imosition of short7term costs .or losses/% 3n other wor!s, such a rocess, if well manage!, canhel blunt oosition to har! choices, temer the level of arty cometition an! re!uce the electoral ris0associate! with such choices%

Secon!, a relatively oen, !eliberative, nation7wi!e foresight e=ercise now forms an integral art of therocess of rearing the government8s reort on the future .see Prime inister8s >ffice, ()*+/% 2hise=ercise rovi!es an oortunity for the lea!ers of Finnish society to engage erio!ically in a structure!rocess of what might be calle! 5collective imagining8 or 5institutionali@e! visioning8 : that is, imaginingwhat the future coul! be li0e, reflecting on how it might be shae! through cooerative action, an!!eliberating about what Finlan! shoul! asire to become an! how such asirations might be achieve!%

3mortantly, too, the foresight rocess is closely coule! with the Finnish innovation system an! thewi!er research community through the articiation of senior aca!emics an! reresentatives of the ma4orresearch fun!ing bo!ies : the Aca!emy of Finlan!, 2e0es .the Finnish Fun!ing Agency for 3nnovation/an! Sitra .the Finnish 3nnovation Fun!/% Few other countries un!erta0e this 0in! of formal, high7level5imagining8 on a regular basis, or if they !o, the foresight rocesses are much less oen an! transarent.e%g% as in "hina an! Singaore/ or are limite! to secific olicy !omains .e%g% national security, as in theUS/ .see $reyer an! Stang, ()*D Ouosa, ()**/%

2hir!, the constitutional re?uirement for governments to ro!uce a reort on the future everyarliamentary term, together with the establishment of a ermanent arliamentary committee !e!icate!to thin0ing about the future an! the more recent legislative re?uirement for foresight rocesses to becon!ucte! at the regional level, serve as olitical 5commitment !evices8% 2hey oblige the olitical

community to un!erta0e forwar! thin0ing an! strategi@ing on a regular basis an! in a reasonablycomrehensive an! systematic manner% As a result, there is no choice but to !evote time, energy an!ublic resources to such tas0s% 3n a sense, therefore, the Finnish olitical community has boun! itself tothe mast of futures thin0ingD it has no choice but to engage% >f course, this !oes not guarantee high7?uality outcomesD nor !oes it mean that ma4or olicy !ecisions are !ifferent from what might otherwisehave been the case% But it certainly increases the chances that such !ecisions will be better informe! an!temere! by a longer7term ersective%

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Fourth, the establishment of a ermanent Parliamentary "ommittee for the Future not only ensures thatthe legislature un!erta0es regular hori@on scanning an! consi!ers some of the big long7term olicyroblems facing the country .esecially in relation to the imact of technological change/, but it alsorovi!es a training groun! in foresight metho!s an! aroaches for many of those who will subse?uentlybecome cabinet ministers .see 2iihonen, ()**/% >ver the years, ?uite a few "ommittee members havebeen aointe! into the ran0s of the e=ecutive, inclu!ing several who have become the lea!ers of theirresective olitical arties% While it is imossible to assess to what e=tent an! in what ways service onthe "ommittee changes how oliticians thin0, inclu!ing how they reflect on the future or ma0e inter7temoral 4u!gements, it is highly li0ely that the 0in! of investigations un!erta0en by the "ommittee an!the rocesses it emloys will enhance the members8 awareness of long7term ris0s an! oortunities an!increase their sensitivity to the interests of future generations%

Fifth, the rearation of the erio!ic governmental reorts on the future is overseen by senior ministers,inclu!ing the Prime inister, an! coor!inate! by the Prime inister8s >ffice% 3t thus involves olicy7ma0ers at the highest level in the Finnish olitical system% 2his hels ensure that government!eartments an! agencies, as well as influential e=ternal actors in the olicy community, ta0e the rocessseriously% Accor!ingly, there is no roblem in securing high7level articiation in the relate! foresighte=ercises, both formal an! informal% Such buy7in an! engagement woul! not be ossible if the rocesswere to be con!ucte! by a government agency an! lac0e! significant ministerial involvement an!5ownershi8%

Si=th, the Finnish foresight mo!el is relatively fle=ible, a!ative an! the sub4ect of regular scrutiny%$uring the ast !eca!e, the government has twice evaluate! 0ey asects of the mo!el : most recently in()*+ : an! on both occasions a variety of changes were instigate! .see Prime inister8s >ffice, ()*+/%"ritical scrutiny an! erio!ic refreshment is li0ely to re!uce the ris0 of ossification an! hel ensure thatthe mo!el remains both relevant an! sustainable%

Against this, the Finnish foresight mo!el is not without wea0nesses an! limitations% First, on the oututsi!e, the most recent government reort on the future : on the theme of %ell$being Through *ustainableGrowth: is relatively blan!, generali@e! an! re!ictable% ore surrisingly, it contains no analysis ofalternative scenarios, has no !iscussion of 5blac0 swan8 events or lesser surrises, an! is !evoi! of

e=licit long7term olicy targets% While emhasi@ing the nee! to buil! a more resilient society, it saysrelatively little in ractical terms about how this might be achieve!% #?ually, while en!orsing a range ofhigh7level, long7term olitical goals an! i!entifying some of the !ifficult !omestic an! e=ternalchallenges facing Finlan!, it largely avoi!s !iscussion of alternative olicy choices an! their resectivecosts an! benefits% 'or !oes the reort outline a clearly !efine! me!ium7term strategy for movingtowar!s the reali@ation of the long7term goals%

Secon!, interviewees note! that although most of the 0ey olicy7ma0ers are involve! to one !egree oranother in the erio!ic foresight rocesses, there remains a !is4uncture between foresight7tye!eliberations an! !ay7to7!ay governmental olicy ma0ing% 2he two rocesses are largely searate, nothele! by the fact that the Prime inister8s >ffice has only a limite! strategic7olicy caability, havingallocate! remar0ably few resources to suort futures thin0ing%

"oul! the Finnish mo!el be relicate! in other !emocracies9 "urrently, while most countries invest inforesight activities of various 0in!s .see $reyer an! Stang, ()*D Couse of "ommons PublicA!ministration Select "ommittee, ())


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than art of a structure! on7going rocess% Similarly, few countries have the same !egree of regular,high7level olitical engagement in futures thin0ing as is evi!ent in Finlan!%

1elicating the Finnish mo!el elsewhere oses a number of !ifficulties% First, there is the challenge ofgenerating, an! then sustaining, the necessary olitical !eman! for a more comrehensive, regular an!better integrate! system of foresight% 'ot all oliticians see the value in strategic foresight, an! there isthe constant ressure to atten! to short7term !eman!s% 1ealistically, therefore, regular, embe!!e!foresight rocesses will not be sustainable without new institutional arrangements, !e!icate! resourcesan! some means of bin!ing successive governments to maintain their investment in futures thin0ing :such as a legislative re?uirement for erio!ic reviews an! government statements% But such mechanisms!o not arise automatically or sontaneously6 they re?uire substantial olitical effort to establish : as theFinnish e=erience highlights .see 2iihonen, ()**/%

Secon!, Finlan! is a small, relatively homogeneous, arliamentary !emocracy, with little over & millioninhabitants% "on!ucting a regular, oen, national, foresight rocess in such a olitical system ismanageable% $oing so in larger !emocracies woul! be much har!er% et si@e is not the only barrier%3!eological an! constitutional hur!les also arise% 3n the Unite! States, for instance, the e=ecutive branchcoul! rea!ily reare a regular reort on the future, maing out the long7term challenges the nationfaces an! how the fe!eral government lanne! to tac0le these challenges, but without buy7in from the"ongress or a future Presi!ent such e=ercises might achieve rather little% Presi!ent Jimmy "arter, forinstance, commissione! a reort in ay *;% Barney an! ro!uce! asubstantial an! imressive !ocument : The Global + -eport to the "resident: in July *;H)% But thereort was largely ignore! by the 1eagan A!ministration, an! no similar reorts have beencommissione! by Presi!ents since then .1e4es0i an! Wobig, ())(, %*&/%

Un!erta0ing comrehensive, regular an! meaningful foresight rocesses will be all the har!er incountries with !eely !ivi!e! or olari@e! olitical communities% While such rocesses !o not re?uireagreement on values or goals, generating useful results will be much har!er if there are !ivergent viewsabout the nature of the olicy roblems that nee! to be face! or if ma4or arts of the olitical community!isute the e=istence of certain roblems, notwithstan!ing overwhelming evi!ence to the contrary% 3n the

Unite! States, for instance, the re4ection by many lea!ing 1eublicans of the fin!ings of the scientificcommunity with resect to anthroogenic climate change oses formi!able obstacles to the use offoresight rocesses to gui!e an! imrove long7term governance%

But, as James 2hurber .()*, %(/ highlights, it is not only climate change where i!eological !ivisionslimit the caacity for ru!ent governance% 2he lac0 of a 5vigorous biartisan centre8 has also thwarte!rogress on a range of 5crucial issues8 li0e 54ob7creation rograms, ta= reform, the rising accumulation ofublic !ebt, the looming e!icare an! e!icai! shortfall, immigration reform, gun control, a failinge!ucation system8% As 2hurber .()*, %(7/ laments6

>ur searate! system of government that is olari@e! an! i!eologically !ea!loc0e! seemsincaable of effectively confronting these critical ublic olicy challenges an! may lac0 the

reserves of comity an! trust to face any un0nown an! su!!en : an! erhas even more!angerous : crises%

Fortunately, few other Western !emocracies currently !islay the same !egree of olari@ation an!gri!loc0%

Cow best to !esign a foresight system will !een! on the articular constitutional, institutional an!cultural con!itions of the country in ?uestion% With resect to the Unite! States, for instance, Eeon

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islan!% $esirous to hear the Sirens enchanting songs but aware of the ris0 of being shiwrec0e!,>!ysseus comman!s his sailors to bloc0 their ears with beeswa= an! bin! him to the mast of the shi%Aware of the ris0 of acting irrationally in the future, he also or!ers his men not to hee! his cries torelease him from the mast when the shi asses the Sirens% By means of this commitment !evice,>!ysseus attemts to limit his future agency an! thus survive the erils of !ynamic inconsistency%

"ommitment !evices vary greatly in their nature, !esign, !urability an! effectiveness .Bin!er, ())DBrocas, et% al%, ())+D Bryan et al, ()*)D $ebrun an! Oumar, ())HD Cagemann, ()**D 1utter an!Onighton, ()*(D Sunstein, ()*+/% $istinctions can be ma!e between har! an! soft, formal an! informal,ublic an! rivate, roce!ural an! substantive, an! so forth% 3n the olitical an! olicy arenas such!evices ta0e many !ifferent forms an! are wi!ely use! .although they are not always recogni@e! as5commitment !evices8/% At one en! of the sectrum, they inclu!e constitutional rovisions that are!eliberately !esigne! to limit the actions of future !ecision7ma0ers an! are necessarily !ifficult to changeor circumvent .see Colmes, *;HHD Sunstein, *;HH/% At the other en! of the sectrum are such things aselection romises an! verbal commitments% 2he latter are reinforce! by the ris0 of embarrassment,shame an! the loss of cre!ibility if they are not uhel!%

Between these two e=tremes are a wi!e range of mechanisms, inclu!ing6

*% the setting of olicy targets an! goalsD(% incororating articular rules, roce!ures or re?uirements into legislationD% establishing institutions with secific, long7term missionsD+% negotiating biartisan or multi7arty agreements on imortant long7term olicy issuesD an!&% !esigning olicies an! rogrammes in ways that ma0e them more !ifficult olitically to alter :

for instance, by establishing en!owments an! trust fun!s, creating social insurance arrangementsbase! on in!ivi!uali@e!, earnings7relate! benefits, etc%

3f the aim of the commitment !evice is to hel encourage a consistent attern of behaviour over time,then the !evice nee!s to be wor0able, cre!ible, an! imose a genuine constraint .e%g% by being costly tochange/% et if the !evice is to be !urable, there must also be the fle=ibility for olicy ma0ers to reson!to une=ecte! contingencies% $esigning !evices that stri0e a sensible balance between these contrary

imeratives re?uires s0ill an! !e=terity% 3n the en!, governments can only constrain their successors to amo!est !egree% Whereas >!ysseus coul! rely on others to limit his future agency, governments alwaysretain the ower to unbin! themselves%

'evertheless, commitment !evices have a long an! imressive recor! in the olitical arena an!, in myview, constitute a critically imortant instrument for enhancing ru!ent long7term governance% #=amlesinclu!e the setting of legislative rinciles for resonsible fiscal management an! sustainable resourcemanagement, the establishment of 5guar!ian7tye8 organi@ations, an! the use of targets to hel !rive theachievement of !esirable long7term goals%

3n relation to targets, the illennium $eveloment Goals rovi!e an e=cellent e=amle at theinternational level of how suitably !esigne!, long7term targets can rovi!e a focus for international

cooeration, mobili@e action, alter governmental riorities an! imrove organi@ational accountabilities% 3twill be interesting to see whether the Sustainable $eveloment Goals which are currently un!ernegotiation achieve the same level of agreement an! commitment% Ei0ewise, at the national an! sub7national levels there are numerous e=amles of where targets have hele! to reinforce an! un!erin aarticular forwar!7loo0ing strategy an! contribute! to better long7term results .see Boston an! "hale,()*+/% >f course, setting targets also runs ris0s% 2hey may generate goal7!islacement, encourage short7cuts an! contribute to mis!irecte! efforts% 3f they are un!uly ambitious, they may invite ri!icule or cause!emorali@ation% 3f they are set for !ates too far ahea! .e%g% !eca!es/ or fail to inclu!e aroriate

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milestones, they may lac0 relevance an! olitical currency% $esigning olicy targets, an! the framewor0within which they oerate, must therefore be un!erta0en with care% 3mortant issues inclu!e6 where theresonsibility for setting the targets shoul! resi!eD on what basis they shoul! be !etermine!D whetherthey shoul! be legally bin!ingD over what time erio! they shoul! alyD who shoul! be assigne!resonsibility for achieving the !esire! outcomes an! what fle=ibility they shoul! have with resect tothe allocation of resourcesD the nature of the framewor0 for monitoring an! reorting erformanceD an!how often the targets shoul! be reviewe!%

As art of this research ro4ect 3 am e=loring a number of commitment !evices in !ifferent olicy!omains, such as fiscal olicy, climate change an! chil! overty, across various 4uris!ictions% 2he aim isto i!entify which articular !esign features contribute most to better long7term governance in theselecte! areas% 3 reali@e, of course, that such !evices may not be rea!ily transferable, either betweenolicy !omains or across 4uris!ictional boun!ariesD but there are, 3 thin0, some useful lessons to begleane! from e=eriences over recent !eca!es%

Proposition .: Governing well for the future not onl& !epen!s on !esirable long-term goals$ but also

a!roit political strategies an! tactics

any interviewees emhasi@e! that while it is helful for governments to embrace secific long7termgoals an! targets .an! relate! milestones/, it is e?ually imortant to !evelo coherent an! oliticallya!roit strategies for achieving them% 2his latter re?uirement is all the more essential when significantolicy investments are re?uire!, an! esecially if such investments entail ain to!ay for gain tomorrowan! if some of the ain is borne by owerful grous% As note! earlier, investment7tye olicies !iffergreatly in their characteristics an! conte=tual environments% 2he magnitu!e of the olitical challengefacing olicy7ma0ers will vary !een!ing on such factors% For instance, convincing the ublic to suorta olicy investment !esigne! to !eliver long7term gains or minimi@e long7term losses will be easierun!er the following con!itions6 there is little !ebate about the basic facts or relevant scientific evi!ence,there are clear an! unmista0able early warning signs, the conse?uences of alternative courses of actionare tangible or easy to secify an! imagine, it is clear on whom the various costs an! benefits will fall,an! at least some of the benefits of the investment are en4oye! in the near7term .see Jacobs, ()**,%(+7&/% By contrast, ma0ing a cre!ible case for a olicy investment will be much har!er when these

con!itions !o not revail%

"limate change rovi!es an e=cellent e=amle% Some of the evi!ence remains conteste! : or at least thesee!s of !oubt have been well7watere! by climate s0etics an! the fossil fuel in!ustry% For many eole,the ris0s seem abstract, generali@e!, in!irect an! remote, rather than concrete, secific, local or near7term% Some of the olicy instruments to !eal with the roblem are comlicate! an! !ifficult toun!erstan!% 2he costs an! benefits of the various olicy otions are often har! to calculate% An!!emonstrating that sacrifices to!ay will ro!uce gains in the future : or at least fewer losses : iscomlicate! by the global collective action roblem an! the ris0 of free ri!ing%

As note! earlier, few olicy roblems are as comle= as climate change or ose such formi!ablechallenges for ru!ent long7term governance% 'evertheless, many other olicy issues : such as

rotecting global bio!iversity, encouraging comact urban !eveloment an! fun!ing early interventionrogrammes : have some of the same attributes% 2hey thus raise the ?uestion of how to ma0e a cre!iblecase for a olicy investment% What olitical strategies an! tactics may be available9 What lessons mightbe !rawn from the literatures on olitical ersuasion, lea!ershi, olicy framing an! consensus buil!ing.see ulgan, ());a/9 2here is not the sace to answer such ?uestions in !etail here% But several oints!eserve mention%

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First, it may be ossible to create an informational environment that is more con!ucive olitically to thea!otion of an investment aroach .see Jacobs, ()**, es% %(7/% 1elevant strategies coul!inclu!e6

*% nhancing the types or /uality of warning signals of possible or likely future harms % 3n somesituations it may be feasible to generate a!!itional warning signals, for e=amle through moree=tensive research, better !ata collection an! more regular reorting of certain 0in!s ofinformation% 3t might be ossible, for instance, to !evelo new early warning !evices or man!atean in!een!ent agency to monitor ma4or tren!s, un!erta0e regular analyses an! forecasts, an!ublish regular reorts on imortant long7term olicy issues, esecially those where they may besignificant long7term ris0s% any foresight an! relate! activities of this nature are, of course,alrea!y con!ucte! in most !emocracies .e%g% the erio!ic reorts of the 3ntergovernmental Panelon "limate "hange, regular reorts on long7term fiscal ro4ections, etc%%/, but their scoe isatchy% A!!itionally, where focusing events !o occur, olicy ma0ers nee! to be a!et at sei@ingon these not merely to a!!ress the current !ifficulties but also to secure suort for long7termreme!ies%

(% nhancing the clarity, specificity and transparency of the conse/uences of failing to respond tolooming problems% Again, in some situations it may be ossible to enhance the range an! ?ualityof information available to the ublic concerning future threats so that citi@ens have a betterun!erstan!ing of what is at sta0e an! how they may be !irectly or in!irectly affecte! if ru!entstes are not ta0en to avert a otential crisis%

% nhancing the /uality of the spatial, sectoral and inter$temporal distributional analyses ofproposed inventions% >ften the !istributional imacts of olicy roblems an! the availablesolutions are oorly analyse! an! even less well un!erstoo!% Greater clarity an! transarencymay, at least in some situations, hel olicy ma0ers secure greater accetance of an investment7tye aroach% But it will be imortant to ensure that roer attention is given the future gains,an! how these might be !istribute!, an! not 4ust the short7term costs%

+% stablishing clearer baselines% 2here may be ways in some situations, erhas through betterresearch an! more e=tensive information, to establish relevant benchmar0s against which variousotions can be consi!ere!% Where an investment7tye aroach is !esigne! rimarily to reventfuture losses, it will be imortant to clarify e=actly what form these losses will ta0e an! why theymatter% Vague statements about, say, reventing 5long7term environmental !amage8 will notusually suffice%

&% *ecuring independent and authoritative support for the proposed policy investment% 3n the finalanalysis, no investment7tye aroach to a olicy roblem is li0ely to be !urable olitically if theclaime! long7term societal benefits are !ifficult to 4ustify% Where the evi!ence of the e=ecte!gains is har! to establish : erhas because of consi!erable uncertainties over the vali!ity of theassumtions un!erinning the intervention logic on which the roosal is base! : it will

obviously be har! to convince voters to accet short7term ain% "ostly gambles are rarelywelcome!% Provi!ing cre!ible an! authoritative evi!ence that the roose! intervention has ahigh robability of !elivering net long7term benefits may thus be a necessary con!ition forsecuring the re?uire! suort% >ne common strategy !esigne! to hel convince otentiallys0etical voters that an investment aroach offers the best way to a!!ress a recogni@e! olicyroblem is to establish an in!een!ent committee or multiarty commission to review theevi!ence an! recommen! a referre! otion%

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Secon!, it will often be ossible to reframe the urose of the roose! olicy investment in or!er toattract greater electoral suort% any olicies have multile goals an! ob4ectives% >ften some of theseare more wi!ely en!orse! by voters than others% 2hese !ifferences in accetability reflect the imact ofi!eological, hilosohical an! ethical consi!erations on how voters concetuali@e issues, !efineroblems, un!erstan! ris0s an! conceive causal lin0ages% For instance, with resect to climate change,the olling evi!ence suggests that how the roblem is frame! has a ma4or bearing on the ublic resonse.see Ansolabehere an! Oonis0y, ()*+/% Framing the issue in terms of long7term economic an!environmental ris0s, an! as0ing citi@ens to ma0e near7term sacrifices in or!er to mitigate such ris0s is nota vote7winning strategy% 2he ris0s are simly too remote an! abstract% By contrast, framing the roblemas a current health issue, or in terms of greater energy security an! cleaner energy, or as an oortunity tocreate new, innovative in!ustries with more sustainable an! higher7ai! 4obs is li0ely to cut more ice%3n!ee!, of these alternative framings, the ?uest for better health outcomes through re!uce! air an! waterollution is articularly salient, at least in the Unite! States where the value of goo! health resonateswith voters across the i!eological sectrum% 3t is something which matters to voters now, not 4ust in the!istant future% 3t thus enables a narrative to be crafte! which sea0s to the short7term riorities of citi@ensan! the electoral timeframes of oliticians% 3n this way, an issue with re!ominantly inter7temoral!imensions : as is certainly true of climate change : can be given a sharer short7term olitical focus%

2hir!, an! relate! to this, in many situations investment7tye olicy interventions will generate near7termbenefits or co7benefits, not only long7term gains .or re!uce! losses/% As art of a olitical strategy to winsuort for such olicies, these benefits nee! emhasis% Alternatively, it may be ossible to comensatethose who are li0ely to suffer most in the short7term from the roose! olicy% >bviously, suchcomensation must not be so generous that it un!ermines the overall logic for the roose! olicy%

Finally, there may be ways to buil! greater cross7arty suort or a wi!er societal consensus in favour ofa articular olicy investment, erhas through the use of collaborative governance aroaches .see#el, ()*/% 2hese involve bringing all the ma4or sta0ehol!ers together in a series of !iscussions!esigne! to enhance un!erstan!ing of the issues an! otions, i!entify !isagreement an! see0 commongroun!% Where such aroaches succee! in securing broa! agreement they rovi!e the foun!ation for amore !urable olicy framewor0 an! hel re!uce any associate! short7term electoral costs%

'ee!less to say, some of these suggestions will be easier than others to imlement% oreover, there canbe no guarantee of success% Where a substantial section of the community !oubts the claime! gravity of alooming olicy roblem an!or is i!eologically hostile a articular 0in! of olicy investment, no amountof emirical evi!ence, tactical comensation, careful reframing, s0illful messaging, sta0ehol!er!eliberation or a focus on the short7term !imensions of the roblem may be sufficient to ersua!e thelarge chorus of oonents to en!orsethe roose! intervention% 3n such circumstances, only a substantialshift in cognitive un!erstan!ing, attitu!es an! values will suffice% An! this may not occur untilsignificant !amage has alrea!y been inflicte! or is unavoi!able%

Proposition /: Governing well for the future re(uires a particular cognitive !isposition$ ethical stance

an! commitment of faith 0 nurturing such a frame of min! is criticall& important

2o govern well for the future re?uires a articular 0in! of orientation, outloo0 an! belief system% 3tre?uires, for instance, a fun!amental an! genuine interest in the future : not only an awareness of theotential ris0s an! avoi!able harms, but also a willingness to embrace new oortunities an!ossibilities% Ei0ewise, it rests uon a !ee an! abi!ing hoe that humanity has a future, that this futurewill be worthwhile, an! that even the most challenging roblems will not rove overwhelming nor theworst !isasters unmanageable% Such a hoe, of course, must ultimately rest on a commitment of faithD itcannot be foun!e! solely on emirical realities%

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Furthermore, to govern well for the future arguably entails imortant normative commitments% 3t imlies,for instance, a strong an! ervasive concern for the nee!s not only of the citi@ens of to!ay but also forthe citi@ens of tomorrowD an! it ac0nowle!ges certain 0in!s of intergenerational !uties an! rinciles ofintergenerational 4ustice% Particularly relevant here are the notions of stewar!shi, guar!ianshi,trusteeshi an! fi!uciary !uties .see 2homson, ())&/% From a Bur0ean stan!oint, for instance, eachan! every generation of humanity is art of an en!uring artnershi or intergenerational contract, aartnershi which both cherishes the inheritance of the ast an! see0s a safe an! fruitful rosect for thegenerations yet to come% 2he i!ea, then, is that of a close an! continuing community which e=ists acrosstime an! sace an! which is boun! together by ine=tricable bon!s% Alternatively, notions of stewar!shican be roote! in various theological tra!itions an! !octrines% Un!er this aroach, humanity is !eeme! tohave a moral obligation to care for a Go!7given create! or!er an! to show love an! comassion to everyerson, whatever their bac0groun!, circumstance or nee!% Being a goo! neighbour 0nows no boun!s6 itmust e=ten! both satially an! temorally% Failure to fulfill such obligations will ultimately be met with!ivine 4ustice%

>f course, not all theological tra!itions !islay the same emhasis on wise lanetary stewar!shi% Forinstance, there are those who believe that Go! will soon annihilate the cosmos with this lanet laying noart in any new !ivine or!er% Such an eschatological ersective rovi!es few groun!s for ru!entstewar!shi of the #arth8s resources% But this merely serves to un!erscore my oint, namely that withouta articular 0in! of orientation, vision an! ethics, both the inner !esire an! moral imerative to governwell for the future will be much !iminishe!%

For those intereste! in ru!ent long7term governance, therefore, a crucial ?uestion is how to cultivatean! foster the secific !isositions, virtues an! values which un!erin such a ?uest% 3n the ast, certainlyin most !eveloe! !emocracies, these nurturing resonsibilities were un!erta0en to a consi!erable e=tentby faith communities : an! in the West articularly by the "hristian faith an! the various e!ucationalinstitutions to which it gave rise% With most !emocratic societies having become more secular, thesetheological un!erinnings have necessarily wea0ene!% 3n their absence, the ?uestion arises as to whetherany alternative hilosohical tra!ition will be sufficiently robust to rovi!e a !urable an! insiringfoun!ation% >n this matter, the 4ury has yet to offer a conclusive ver!ict%

3n the meantime, art of the challenge of governing well for the future must be to foster a oliticalculture which ta0es the interests of future generations seriously an! values a healthy an! sustainableenvironment% 2his re?uires ersistent a!vocacy an! continuing efforts to change eole8s hearts an!min!s% As Jac0 'agel .*;HH, %


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2here is no ?uality in human nature, which causes more fatal errors in our con!uct, than thatwhich lea!s us to refer whatever is resent to the !istant an! remote, an! ma0es us !esireob4ects more accor!ing to their situation than their intrinsic value%

3n an age where humanity has the means to inflict irreversible harm, if not !estroy all life on the lanet,there is an even greater nee! to encourage far7sighte! lea!ershi an! soun!, anticiatory governance%

et, securing these !esirable en!s oses formi!able challenges% As 3 have argue! in this aer, the natureof the long7term governance roblem is such that there are few, if any, best ractice solutions% We are!ealing, after all, not with a simle or even a comlicate! roblem, but with a rofoun!ly comle=roblem% We cannot rea!ily turn the 5whisers8 of the future into a !ominant, resoun!ing chorus% Butthere are, 3 believe, ways to ma0e this voice more vivi! an! au!ible an! increase the incentives on!ecision7ma0ers to hee! its call% 'ecessarily, the available otions must be tailore! to suit the many!ifferent olitical, institutional an! cultural conte=ts across the !emocratic worl!% 'ecessarily, too, theymust be constantly refine! an! refreshe!% >ur aroach must be rigorous, e=erimental an! a!ative, butit must also be ursue! with vigour an! assion% 2he future !een!s on it

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Table "# $itigating the long-term governance problem# solution t%pes &ith selected e'amples and a

summar% o( their underl%ing intervention logics

T%pe o( solution )elected e'amples )ummar% o( underl%ing

intervention logics (or solution

t%pes

* "reate new an!or stronger international institutions

a% #stablish a Cigh "ommissioner for FutureGenerations within the U'

b% "reate new sura7national bo!ies with!ecision7rights to manage global ublicgoo!s an! rotect the global commons

c% 1eform e=isting international institutions!% 3ncrease the rotection for the rights of future

generations within international instruments

a% #nhance caacity forinternational coor!ination

b% "onstrain the behaviour ofnation states via strongerincentives an! sanctions

c% 3mrove international a!vocacyon behalf of future generations

( Strengthen constitutional .or?uasi7constitutional/constraints

a% Amen! e=isting constitutions to constrain the!ecision7rights of legislators an! olicy7ma0ers by imosing, for instance, a !uty ongovernments to safeguar! the interests.welfare or rights/ of future generationsan!or to rotect a healthy, ecologically

balance! environment

a% "onstrain the behaviour ofe=ecutives an! legislatures viathe rule of law

b% 2hreat of 4u!icial review :anticiatory constraint

"hange the level within aolity at which formalresonsibility lies for certain0in!s of olicy !ecisions

a% $ecentrali@e resonsibility for certain!ecisions to sub7national governments

b% "entrali@e resonsibility for certain !ecisions

a% 3ncrease the incentives on!ecision7ma0ers to consi!erfuture interests

+ $elegate !ecision7rights forsecific olicy matters toin!een!ent bo!ies

a% Strengthen the e=isting !ecision7rights ofin!een!ent bo!ies

b% 2ransfer a!!itional !ecision7rights toin!een!ent bo!ies

a% 1e!uce the influence of short7term olitical .electoral/

ressures on !ecision7ma0ingb% 2echnocrats assume! to be more

future focuse!

& 1eform electoral rules an!

voting rights

a% 1e!uce the voting age .e%g% to * or lower/

b% Place greater weight on the votes of youngergenerationsc% 1emove the voting rights of ol!er voters!% 3ntro!uce comulsory votinge% #stablish searate legislative reresentation

for future generations .e%g% via ro=ies, etc%/f% 1eform the rules governing olitical .or

camaign/ finance to re!uce the ower ofveste! interests an! wealthy !onors

g% #nsure that electoral boun!aries are!etermine! by in!een!ent .i%e% non7artisan/

bo!iesh% Where rimary contests occur as art of the

election rocess, ensure that all voters canarticiate .not only those registere! with a

articular arty/

a% 1e!uce the influence of short7

term electoral ressures .forerio!s imme!iately followingelections/

b% 3ncrease the incentives on!ecision7ma0ers to consi!erfuture interests

c% #nhance the reresentation of!iserse! an! future interests

1eform legislativeinstitutions

a% #=ten! the tenure of legislatorsb% "hange the voting rules in legislatures on

matters which have ma4or long7termimlications

c% "reate a committee !e!icate! to long7termissues

!% "reate .or reform/ an Uer Couse : give it a

a% 1e!uce the influence of short7term electoral ressures .for

erio!s imme!iately followingelections/

b% 3ncrease the incentives on!ecision7ma0ers to consi!erfuture interests

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secific constitutional man!ate to consi!erlong7term issues

c% #nhance reresentation of!iserse! an! future interests

!% #nhance the analysis of long7term issues an! ris0s

< #nhance strategic foresightan! lanning rocesses

a% 3mrove the i!entification an! assessment oflong7term ris0s, inclu!ing the !evelomentof better early warning !evices

b% 3mrove analysis of long7term economic,social an! environmental tren!s

c% 3mrove the assessment of the imact of newtechnologies

!% Un!erta0e regular an! comrehensivehori@on scanning, scenario analysis,forecasting, etc%

e% 3mrove strategic management systems an!rocesses

a% #nhance the information base,analysis of long7term ris0s an!

anticiatory caacity of olicyma0ers

H 3nstitute newproceduralrulesan! re?uirements for!ecision7ma0ing

a% #nact .or strengthen/ legal re?uirements forsomeall !ecision7ma0ing bo!ies to consi!erthe interests of future generations .or long7term outcomes/ as art of their normal

!ecision7ma0ing rocessesb% #nact .or strengthen/ legal re?uirements forthe con!uct of regular, transarent future7relate! reviews an! other e=ercises, such asregular6o foresight rocesseso government reorts .or a manifesto/ on

the futureo reorts on long7term fiscal ro4ectionso reorts on long7term environmental

con!itionso osterity imact statements, etc%

a% 1e!uce the ris0 of long7termconsi!erations being overloo0e!

b% 3mrove the information base.transarency/ an! ?uality of

olicy analysisc% #nhance ublic !ebate an!un!erstan!ing of long7termissues

!% #nhance the constraints on!ecision7ma0ers via

4ustificatory re?uirements

; 3nstitute newsubstantiveolicy rules .an! other 0in!sof 5commitment8 !evices/ toconstrain !ecision7ma0ers

a% #nact .or strengthen/ legally7bin!ingre?uirements for !ecision7ma0ers to set long7term targets to achieve !esirable olicy goals.e%g% to re!uce greenhouse7gas emissions,chil! overty, reci!ivism, etc%/

b% #nact .or strengthen/ legally7bin!ingsubstantive olicy rules .or rinciles/ whichmust be a!here! to by !ecision7ma0ers, suchaso rinciles of fiscal resonsibilityo rinciles of environmental sustainabilityo olicy rules relating to natural caital

stoc0s .e%g% stoc0s of non7renewablenatural caital can only be !elete! ifrelace! by 5e?uivalent8 stoc0s ofrenewable natural caital/

a% #nhance the information base.transarency/

b% 1e?uire the signalling intent.olitically bin!ing/

c% #nhance the rioriti@ation ofresources an! olitical effort

!% "onstrain !ecision7ma0ers viarule of law

e% Strengthen oliticalaccountability for long7termoutcomes

*) #stablish .or strengthen/institutions with man!ates to

rotect the interests of futuregenerations or e=ercise long7term guar!ianshi roles

a% #stablish a inister for the Future .or FutureGenerations/

b% #stablish .or strengthen/ "ommissions."ouncils, Aca!emies, etc%/ for the Future

c% #stablish .or strengthen/ an >mbu!sman forFuture Generations

!% #stablish .or strengthen/ a Sustainable$eveloment "ommission

e% an!ate the civil service to un!erta0e long7

a% "onstrain !ecision7ma0ers viarule of law

b% #nhance the analysis of long7term issues

c% #nhance a!vocacy .voice/ onbehalf of future interests

!% #nhance the government8scaacity to e=ercise stewar!shi

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term stewar!shi resonsibilitiesf% #stablish .or strengthen/ organi@ations such

as 'ational 2rusts, 'ational Par0 Services,etc%

g% #stablish .or strengthen/ intergenerationaltrust fun!s, future fun!s an! relate!en!owments

** #stablish or strengtheninstitutions with secificlong7term analytical an!a!visory resonsibilities :legislative, e=ecutive, civilsociety, etc%

a% #stablish .or strengthen/ long7term thin0tan0s .both insi!e an! outsi!e thegovernment/

b% #stablish .or strengthen/ strategy units incentral agencies an! other government

bo!iesc% #stablish .or strengthen/ in!een!ent bo!ies

to un!erta0en long7term fiscal forecastingan! a!vise on long7term fiscal issues

a% #nhance the information base.transarency/b% #nhance long7term ris0

i!entificationc% #nhance the analysis of long7

term olicy issues an! otions!% #nhance the ?uality o

Governing for the Future: How to Bring the Long-Term Into Short-Term Political Focus

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Transcript of Governing for the Future: How to Bring the Long-Term Into Short-Term Political Focus