GOP Primary Poll 8 28 2013
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Transcript of GOP Primary Poll 8 28 2013
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7/30/2019 GOP Primary Poll 8 28 2013
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Penn Schoen Berland 1
New York City Mayoral Election Republican PrimaryAugust 2013
400 Likely Republican Primary Election Voters (MOE: +/- 4.9%)
Likelihood to VoteWhat are the chances of
you voting in the
September Republican
PRIMARY election? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Almost certain 86 86 86 77 91 88 83 89 87
Probably 14 14 14 23 9 12 17 11 13
50-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Probably not 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Definitely not 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Don't know 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Direction of New York CityWould you say that
things in New York City
are generally headed in
the right direction, or are
things off on the wrong
track? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Right direction 38 40 36 47 32 53 39 39 21
Wrong track 52 52 51 46 55 39 53 51 64
Don't know/refused 10 8 13 7 12 8 8 10 15
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Most Important IssueI am going to read you a
list of concerns that
some people in the city
have mentioned. Please
tell me which one youpersonally want the next
Mayor of New York City
to focus on in the next
few years: All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Crime and safety 22 24 20 19 24 27 19 22 18
The economy and jobs 18 20 17 19 18 23 19 15 17
Taxes and city fees 10 10 10 12 9 6 5 13 18
Public education 9 8 10 9 9 10 8 6 14
City government
spending and debt9 9 10 8 10 7 10 14 7
Affordable housing for
all income groups8 8 8 8 8 12 10 7 2
Cost of living 5 3 6 7 4 2 7 6 3
Traffic and congestion 4 3 4 6 2 5 4 1 9
Condition of city
streets and roads3 5 1 5 3 2 4 5 2
Income inequality 2 3 2 3 2 0 4 2 2
City services like
sewers and garbagecollection
1 1 2 2 1 0 2 3 1
Other 5 4 6 3 7 5 7 4 7
Don't know 2 2 2 0 3 1 0 2 2
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Mayoral BallotIf the September 2013
Republican Primary for New
York City Mayor were held
tomorrow and the candidates
were: ## RANDOMIZE THENAMES ## Joe Lhota, John
Catsimatidis AND George
McDonald for whom would
you vote or are you
undecided?
[IF UNDECIDED:] Well,
toward which candidate do
you lean?
[IF CANDIDATE:] Would you
say you support that
candidate strongly or not
strongly? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Lhota 50 53 48 46 53 66 50 42 53
Catsimatidis 28 27 29 27 28 18 27 33 30
McDonald 5 5 4 4 5 5 8 5 0
Undecided 15 11 18 20 11 11 13 15 15
Other 2 3 1 2 2 0 3 3 1
Refused 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
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Mayoral Ballot: Complete
Breakdown All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Lhota strong 31 29 33 21 37 34 36 26 32
Lhota not strong 11 15 7 15 8 19 8 8 12
undecided lean Lhota 9 9 8 10 8 13 6 8 9
Catsimatidis strong 17 19 15 15 18 9 14 23 16
Catsimatidis not strong 7 6 8 8 7 6 10 8 7
undecided lean
Catsimatidis4 1 6 4 3 3 4 2 7
McDonald strong 2 2 2 2 2 5 3 1 0
McDonald not strong 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0
undecided lean
McDonald2 3 2 2 3 0 5 3 0
Undecided 15 11 18 20 11 11 13 15 15
Other 2 3 1 2 2 0 3 3 1
Refused 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
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IF SUPPORT A CANDIDATE:
Are you supporting this
candidate mainly because: All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
You think the candidatecan get things done
23 23 23 16 27 15 28 24 24
You like the candidates
ideas and proposals22 20 25 25 21 17 22 23 27
There is no better
alternative21 24 18 24 19 19 18 20 25
You like the candidates
experience20 18 22 20 20 26 15 22 15
The candidate represents
change
7 7 7 9 6 9 13 2 5
You like the candidates
personality3 4 1 4 2 3 1 4 2
Don't know 5 4 5 2 6 10 4 4 4
IF SUPPORT A CANDIDATE:
And is this candidate your
original choice for the
Republican nominee for
Mayor, or have you changed
your mind over the course of
the primary campaign? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Original choice 73 71 74 76 71 61 76 75 73
Changed my mind 22 25 19 21 22 28 18 22 26
Don't know 6 4 7 3 7 12 6 3 1
IF CHANGE MIND
Which of the candidates did
you support before changing
your mind? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
John Catsimatidis 34 35 34 42 30 42 27 40 23
Joe Lhota 27 27 27 38 21 16 33 22 38
George McDonald 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 0
None was UNDECIDED 24 22 26 9 31 27 17 25 25
Other 11 13 8 11 11 16 20 4 9
Don't know 3 2 6 0 5 0 3 6 5
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Just your best guess, who do
you think will win the
Republican NOMINATION for
New York City Mayor? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
IslandJoe Lhota 50 51 48 49 50 62 46 43 55
John Catsimatidis 24 24 25 23 25 17 22 30 26
George McDonald 4 5 3 5 3 3 7 3 3
Other 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 5 1
Don't know 18 16 20 20 17 14 20 18 15
Regardless of who you may
support for mayor, which
Republican candidate would
you trust to do a better jobleading the city through a
natural disaster like
Hurricane Sandy or a terrorist
attack? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Joe Lhota 48 51 46 48 49 58 50 45 49
John Catsimatidis 22 22 21 20 23 13 20 31 15
George McDonald 3 2 4 3 3 5 5 2 0
Other 5 3 7 5 5 2 5 6 4
None 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 3 8
Don't know/refused 19 18 20 21 18 21 19 14 23
And if your preferred
candidate were to lose the
Republican nomination, how
likely would you be to
consider voting for a
Democratic, Independent, or
third-party candidate in the
November general election
for Mayor? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Very likely 22 17 27 22 22 26 24 19 15Somewhat likely 24 26 23 34 19 26 17 27 22
Not very likely 14 19 9 16 13 7 17 14 20
Not at all likely 33 33 34 24 39 33 37 31 39
Don't know 6 5 7 4 7 8 6 8 4
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Candidate TraitsOn a scale from ZERO to
TEN, how important it is to
have a mayor who
Showing % of respondents who
ranked trait as TEN (ExtremelyImportant) All Male Female
Under50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
StatenIsland
Is honest and trustworthy 82 76 86 76 85 74 83 78 90
Will be tough on crime and
improve public safety74 67 81 70 76 62 73 79 77
Is a problem solver 72 69 74 75 70 58 68 82 79
Will manage the city
budget effectively70 70 70 73 68 52 72 69 77
Cares about people like
you70 62 77 72 69 51 72 80 71
Will prioritize jobs and the
economy61 58 64 65 59 34 68 71 59
Will fight for the middle
class60 56 65 60 61 32 57 78 63
Will focus on each of the
five boroughs equally58 57 59 57 58 41 56 54 69
Will make New York City
more affordable 58 54 62 56 59 51 63 58 60
Has strong family values 57 51 63 52 60 30 52 62 70
Will prioritize education
and good public schools47 46 49 48 47 35 44 46 62
Shares your values 44 45 42 40 46 32 50 35 50
Will improve city traffic and
transportation issues38 41 35 40 36 17 32 39 55
Has served in the CityGovernment
29 21 37 33 27 28 22 32 33
Will end the citys STOP-
AND-FRISK program18 21 15 12 22 24 8 17 23
Will make the rich pay
higher taxes15 15 15 9 18 10 11 18 12
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Leader Favorability
Leader Favorability:
Summary
Showing % Favorable/%Unfavorable All Male Female
Under50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
StatenIsland
Joe Lhota 63/11 64/13 61/9 52/13 69/10 81/7 60/9 56/9 69/14
Michael Bloomberg 59/38 51/47 67/30 49/48 65/32 75/24 60/38 57/41 47/49
John Catsimatidis 53/18 53/20 52/15 48/17 56/18 53/27 50/12 55/17 56/16
George McDonald 17/9 19/9 16/8 21/7 15/9 29/8 17/7 18/8 6/8
Individual FavorabilityMichael Bloomberg
Favorability All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Very favorable 27 22 32 20 32 43 32 24 11
Somewhat favorable 32 28 35 29 34 31 28 33 35
Somewhat unfavorable 14 17 11 16 12 10 11 15 20
Very unfavorable 24 30 19 31 20 14 26 26 28
No opinion/Don't know 3 2 3 4 2 1 1 2 5
Never heard of the
person0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Joe Lhota Favorability All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Very favorable 32 30 35 22 39 45 29 28 37
Somewhat favorable 30 35 26 30 30 36 31 28 32
Somewhat unfavorable 6 7 5 9 5 5 4 6 9
Very unfavorable 5 6 4 5 5 3 5 4 6
No opinion/Don't know 19 15 23 24 16 11 18 25 14
Never heard of theperson 7 8 7 10 5 1 13 9 3
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John Catsimatidis
Favorability All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Very favorable 20 22 18 12 24 19 22 17 22
Somewhat favorable 33 32 34 36 31 34 28 37 34
Somewhat unfavorable 9 9 8 9 9 12 6 8 10
Very unfavorable 9 11 7 9 9 15 6 8 7
No opinion/Don't know 21 18 23 22 20 13 24 21 21
Never heard of the
person 9 8 10 12 7 7 14 7 7
George McDonald
Favorability All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Very favorable 4 4 4 3 4 9 2 4 1
Somewhat favorable 14 15 12 17 11 20 15 14 5Somewhat unfavorable 5 3 7 3 6 6 3 4 6
Very unfavorable 4 6 1 4 4 2 4 4 2
No opinion/Don't know 43 43 44 44 43 43 45 41 54
Never heard of the
person 31 29 32 29 32 20 31 33 32
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Mayor BloombergThinking in general, would
you say you strongly
approve, somewhat approve,
somewhat disapprove or
strongly disapprove of the
job Michael Bloomberg has
been doing as Mayor? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Strongly approve 26 22 30 19 30 39 26 20 21
Somewhat approve 40 39 41 39 41 37 36 48 35
Somewhat disapprove 14 15 13 16 12 10 18 11 17
Strongly disapprove 17 22 12 23 13 11 17 19 20Don't know 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 7
TOTAL APPROVE 66 61 71 58 71 76 62 68 56
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 31 37 25 39 25 21 35 30 37
Overall, do you want the next
mayor of New York to
generally continue the
policies of Mayor Bloomberg
OR do you think it is time for
a change?
All Male FemaleUnder
5050+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Continue the Bloomberg
policies38 37 39 33 41 50 37 39 27
Time for a change 56 57 55 57 55 40 61 55 66
Don't know/refused 6 6 6 10 4 10 2 6 6
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Penn Schoen Berland 11
Now let me read you some
specific policies that were
passed during Michael
Bloombergs time as mayor.
For each one, please tell me
whether you think it is an
excellent, good, just fair, or
poor policy for the city.
Showing % Excellent/Good vs.
% Fair/Poor All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Banning smoking in public
places67/30 64/33 71/28 71/26 65/33 59/41 75/25 75/22 56/35
Implementing the stop-
and-frisk program61/34 56/39 66/28 58/34 63/33 64/33 56/42 61/32 71/25
Expanding the cityaffordable housing plan 50/43 46/46 55/39 48/44 52/42 59/34 58/42 39/54 36/46
The mayor taking direct
control over public
education
49/49 53/46 45/51 47/51 50/47 50/44 52/44 52/46 42/58
Ending the policy of
overnight jail stay for
those arrested with small
amounts of marijuana
43/49 45/50 41/49 53/41 37/54 44/50 39/50 43/54 36/49
Adding bike lanesthroughout the city
35/63 34/64 35/62 38/61 33/64 28/68 37/62 41/58 28/67
Trying to ban the sale of
sweetened drinks larger
than 16 ounces
20/79 12/87 27/72 21/77 19/80 28/70 20/80 20/80 14/83
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Demographics
Gender All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Male 49 100 0 55 45 46 47 50 51
Female 51 0 100 45 55 54 53 50 49
Borough All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Manhattan 18 17 19 14 21 100 0 0 0
Bronx 8 9 7 7 9 0 0 0 0
Brooklyn 25 24 26 28 23 0 100 0 0
Queens 31 31 31 31 31 0 0 100 0
Staten Island 18 19 17 21 16 0 0 0 100
Age All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
18-29 10 13 6 26 0 5 16 8 11
30-39 9 10 7 23 0 5 7 13 5
40-49 19 19 20 51 0 19 19 16 27
50-64 27 29 24 0 43 32 25 28 20
65+ 36 29 42 0 57 39 33 34 37
And do you consideryourself very liberal,
somewhat liberal,
moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very
conservative? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Very liberal 3 3 4 3 4 8 4 0 2
Somewhat liberal 6 5 6 1 8 7 3 9 2
Moderate 24 24 24 31 20 33 19 24 23
Somewhat
conservative
39 41 38 42 38 31 43 41 44
Very conservative 25 25 26 21 28 14 30 26 27
Don't know 2 2 2 1 2 7 0 0 3
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In the November
2009 election for
New York mayor, did
you vote for: All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Michael
Bloomberg
67 60 74 57 73 72 66 68 59
Bill Thompson 15 19 10 20 11 8 14 14 24
Other 4 5 3 5 4 9 1 4 3
Did not vote 10 12 8 14 7 4 14 11 9
Don't know/
refused4 3 5 3 5 7 4 3 4
Are you or anyone in
your household a
member of a labor
union? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Yes 28 27 29 36 23 17 18 31 47
No 71 73 70 64 76 82 82 69 52
Don't know 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
What is the highest
level of school you
have completed or
the highest degree
you have received? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
1-11 Grade 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 2 4High school
diploma or the
equivalent 16 14 18 14 18 4 27 11 13
Some college 16 15 18 16 17 11 19 16 15
College graduate 36 36 36 37 35 42 28 43 40
Graduate school 27 29 25 31 25 39 25 26 23
Technical school 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 2 4
Don't
know/refused 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
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Penn Schoen Berland 14
Typically, how do
you get to work or
school? Do you walk,
ride a bike, take the
subway, take a bus,
take a taxi, or drive a
car? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Walk 14 12 15 21 9 18 24 8 10
Bike 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 4
Subway 33 34 31 36 31 43 43 25 19
Bus 17 11 23 15 19 34 15 13 13
Taxi 4 5 4 3 6 10 5 2 3
Drive a car 39 46 32 41 38 7 25 61 58
Don't know 17 12 21 7 22 14 14 16 18
Do you currently own
or rent your primary
residence? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Own 66 69 64 59 71 53 59 80 76
Rent 32 29 35 39 28 47 39 19 21
Don't know 2 2 1 3 1 0 2 1 3
Race: Are you of
Hispanic, Latino, or
Spanish-speaking
background?[IF NO]What is your
race white, black,
Asian, or something
else? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
White 74 75 72 75 73 75 69 75 90
Black/African-
American 7 4 9 4 9 10 8 6 0
Latino/Hispanic 12 14 10 14 11 11 15 10 3
Asian 3 2 3 4 2 0 1 7 0
Native American 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Pacific Islander 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Arab American 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 3 2 4 2 4 3 5 0 2
Don't
know/Refused 2 2 2 2 2 0 1 2 5
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What is your
religion? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Protestant 14 14 17 7 21 22 12 9 21
Catholic 48 45 52 49 48 28 38 57 68
Jewish 18 25 12 27 13 24 30 17 3
Methodist 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0
Baptist 1 1 1 0 2 0 2 0 0
Evangelical
(include Church of
God, Pentecostal,
7th Day Adventist)
0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1
Non-traditional
(include Christian
Science,
JehovahsWitness)
1 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 0
Mormon, Latter
Day Saints, LDS0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Muslim 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 0
Other 8 7 9 6 10 13 9 8 2
No religion 4 6 2 4 4 4 6 3 2
Don't
know/refused4 2 5 4 4 5 4 2 5
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Penn Schoen Berland 16
For statistical
purposes only, which
of the following
categories best
represents your
current total
HOUSEHOLD income
before taxes? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Less than $25,000 11 8 13 10 12 8 6 8 18
$25,000 to
$49,99919 22 16 16 21 19 29 14 15
$50,000 to
$99,99929 28 30 27 31 33 24 30 24
$100,000 to
$149,99912 13 12 16 10 11 14 18 8
$150,000 andmore
10 15 6 13 9 16 8 11 12
Don't know/refused 18 14 22 19 18 14 19 20 24
Are you, a family
member of yours, or
a close friend gay or
lesbian? All Male Female
Under
50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens
Staten
Island
Yes, myself 3 4 2 5 2 6 3 1 2
Yes, family
member
13 11 15 17 10 13 6 14 16
Yes, close friend 12 13 11 14 11 16 12 9 16
No 72 73 72 66 76 72 76 75 67
Don't know/
refused4 4 4 3 4 2 5 2 4