Gone up…now 77.6. The Demography of Aging Lecture 3 – Chapter 3.
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Transcript of Gone up…now 77.6. The Demography of Aging Lecture 3 – Chapter 3.
Gone up…now 77.6
The Demography of Aging
Lecture 3 – Chapter 3
Demographics?
Study of the size, distribution, and composition of
a population
284.5 million in US…
65 years & Older?
35 million…12.4%New England + Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont + Rhode Island + Connecticut
+ Montana + Idaho + Wyoming + Colorado + New Mexico + Arizona + Utah + Nevada
12.4% now2020 16.52040 20.52060 20.8
The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life
USASource
www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts.PDF
World
300 million Population, Jan 2007 6.5 billion
77 Population per square mile 118
15 Births per 1,000 people 22
9 Deaths per 1,000 people 9
2.1 Total fertility rate 2.8
21 % of pop under age 15 30
13 % of pop over age 65 7
Us: 32nd: 12.4
Median Ageis also increasing
50%Above
50% Below
Demographic transitions
No surprise increase in older adults
Theory of Population Change: fertility & mortality will decline from high to lowlevels because economics & social development
Stage IHi BRHi DR
*Preindustrial
Stage IIHi BR
low DR
Stage IIIlow BRlow DR
Population Pyramid:• bar graph• age categories (5 yr)• male & female• length = percentages
3 types:
Expansive: “Broad Base”
More younger peeps
Constrictive: fewer in younger peeps
Stationary: = # peeps in all cats
Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
Millions
Male Female
8.1%
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000
Millions
Male Female = Year 1950
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050
Male Female
Millions
= Year 2000
Baby
Boomers
What’s causing so many older people since 1900s?
CohortBaby Boomers
(fertility)Declining infant &
adult mortality
Increases in lifeexpectancy
Lowering of Fertility
“baby bust”(late 1960s-70s)
2045-2050Slower to marryFewer children
Mortality rates: tot # of deathsin a year per 1,000 individuals
Fertility rates: tot # of birthsin a year per 1,000 individuals
Age composition: proportion of young & old in a society
Fertility Rates USAFertility Rates USA
2.33
The human life cycle divisions are arbitrary differing from society to society and changing from one time in history to another
The five stages of adulthood
early adulthood (18-30),
middle adulthood (30-50)
Later adulthood (50-65)
young-old age (65-80)
old-old age (> 80)
Octogenarian: Someone in their eighties. Nonagenarian: Someone in their nineties.
Centenarian: Someone 100 or more. Supercentenarian: Someone 110 years old
or more (no upper limit)
Riley (1986) "young-old" (ages 65 to 74)"old-old" (ages 75 to 85)"oldest-old" (over age 85)
important
1. SEX COMPOSITION:
Sex Ratio: the # of males for every 100 females
1900: 102
1930: 100.4
1980: 94.5
1990: 95.1
2000:96.1
2025: 96.0
12.4% (2000)
59% female41% male
6 million more women!!!!
At birth 105 boys to 100 girls
35 years of ageFemale begin to surpass Males
Centenarians & super
1. SEX COMPOSITION
Where to go to get a date…
Race Ethnicity Composition of US
2003: Minorities represent about 18% of 65+ 2050: Projected 40% of 65+
2. ETHNICITY
Inequities among the racesBlacks have lower life expectancy
as compared to whites
Inequities among the races
- 5.4
- 6.3
Where do older adults live?
Where do older adults live?
Where do older adults not live?
CA 3.6 million (11%)
Florida 2.7 (18%)
New York 2.4 (13%)
Texas 2.0 (9%)
Alaska 5.5 %
1. LOCATION
Old-age dependency ratio:
65+ (too old to work)_____________
18-64 (working)
1930: 1:11
1980: 1:5.4
2000: 1:5
2030: 1:3
Familial old-age dependency ratio:
65 to 84 (elderly parents)___________________
45 to 54 (elderly children)
1980: 1.02:1
2000: .8:1
2030: 1.6:1
