Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference September...

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Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference September 2019

Transcript of Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference September...

Page 1: Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference September 2019s21.q4cdn.com/457874623/files/doc_presentations/... · 11 • Entered Quick Lubes business in 1985 • Preventive maintenance

Goldman Sachs Global Retailing ConferenceSeptember 2019

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference September 2019s21.q4cdn.com/457874623/files/doc_presentations/... · 11 • Entered Quick Lubes business in 1985 • Preventive maintenance

Safe Harbor

Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, including estimates, projections and statements related to Valvoline’s business plans and operating results, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Valvoline has identified some of these forward-looking statements with words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “estimates,” “is likely,” “predicts,” “projects,” “forecasts,” “may,” “will,” “should” and “intends” and the negative of these words or other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on Valvoline’s current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions as of the date such statements are made, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risks and uncertainties are described in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the “Risk Factors,” “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” sections of Valvoline’s most recently filed periodic reports on Forms 10-K and Forms 10-Q, which are available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/sec-filings or the SEC’s website at http://sec.gov. Valvoline assumes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements for any reason, even if new information becomes available in the future, unless required by law.

Regulation G: Adjusted ResultsThe information presented herein, regarding certain financial measures that do not conform to generally accepted accounting principles in theUnited States (U.S. GAAP), should not be construed as an alternative to the reported results determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Valvolinehas included this non-GAAP information to assist in understanding the operating performance of the company and its reportable segments. Thenon-GAAP information provided may not be consistent with the methodologies used by other companies. Information regarding Valvoline’sdefinition, calculation and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the tables attached to Valvoline’s most recent earnings pressrelease dated July 31, 2019, which is available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/financial-reports/quarterly-reports.

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Agenda

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• Roadmap to Drive Shareholder Value……………………………………………………….………………...Sam Mitchell, CEO

• Quick Lubes Review……………………………………………………………………………………………...Tony Puckett, SVP

• Closing Remarks……………………………………………………………...………………………………….Sam Mitchell, CEO

• Q&A

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Chief executive officer

Sam Mitchell

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Company Overview

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Sales Adjusted1 EBITDA

~20%In Fiscal 2018 Adjusted EBITDA1

Percent of Sales

Over 140Countries With Valvoline Sales

Top 3Premium Motor Oil Brand2

~$2.3BIn Fiscal 2018 Sales

Fiscal 2018 Segment Mix

1 For reconciliation of adjusted historical amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated November 5, 2018, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 By volume in the U.S. DIY market in 2018

Core North

America

Int’l

Quick Lubes

Core North

America

Int’l

Quick Lubes

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Roadmap to Drive Shareholder Value

Grow

Quick Lubes

Win in Retail Services

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Maintain

Core North America

Strengthen foundation and drive efficiency

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Develop

International

Capture market share

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See Valvoline’s Investor Day Presentation1

1 Available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/files/doc_presentations/2019/05/VVV_2019_Investor-Day_FINAL.pdf

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Opportunity to Deploy Cash Flows and Generate Attractive Returns

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ROIC consistently above 20%

High-Return Projects at ~2x Cost of Capital

Solid EBITDA Margins

Low Maintenance Capital

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Quick Lubes & Other Core North America

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Outlook

Total System Store Sales ($ Millions)

Company Franchise

761

Industry-leading Retail Sales Growth is Accelerating

544505448

IPO

570 592 636 687

880

1,024

1,161

~1,400

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Focus on Growth in Retail Services Is the Right Move

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Clear Competitive Advantage• Best-in-class same-store-sales

performance• Superior business model

Significant Expansion Opportunity• Organic & inorganic unit growth• Share gains opportunity beyond quick

lubes market

Control the Value Chain • Vertical integration• End-to-end control

1

2

3

Benefits Total Company• Improved margins, reduced raw

material sensitivity• Platform for expanded services

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Senior vice president,and president, Quick Lubes

Tony Puckett

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Valvoline Instant Oil Change (VIOC)

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• Entered Quick Lubes business in 1985

• Preventive maintenance model- “Replace Fluids and Parts, No Repair”

• Stay in Your Car Drive Thru Service

• No appointment needed

• Serving ~18M customer visits1 per year

• #2 in US, #3 in Canada2

- VIOC and Great Canadian Oil Change Quick. Easy. Trusted. Quick. Easy. Trusted.1 Includes U.S and Canada2 Based on number of stores using industry data

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Clear Competitive Advantages Driven by …

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Operating Stores Strengthens Business Model

• Strong Culture

• Superior Technology

• Best-in-class Marketing

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Growth Through Same Store Sales

7.7% 7.5% 7.4%8.3%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

System-wide Same Store SalesFiscal 2015 – 2019 YTD

10.1%

• On-track for 13th consecutive year of positive same store sales growth

• 2007 – 2019 YTD average annual same store sales growth of ~6%

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9.8%

6.8%

2.2%3.4%

4.5% 4.1%

10.8%

5.3%

0.5%

2.9%

6.9%

3.2%

9.7%

5.2%

0.8%2.4%

6.3%

3.0%

0%VIOC Boyd Monro Retail Auto Parts Fast Growing / Best-in-Class

RetailStable Retail Brands

Q4 CY 2018 Q1 CY 2019 Q2 CY 2019

Growth Through Same Store Sales

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Last 3 Quarters Same Store Sales Comps

2 3 4

1

7.7% 7.5% 7.4%8.3%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

System-wide Same Store SalesFiscal 2015 – 2019 YTD

10.1%

• On-track for 13th consecutive year of positive same store sales growth

• 2007 – 2019 YTD average annual same store sales growth of ~6%

1 Historical quarters include only those who have reported CYQ219 Earnings2 Represents median of AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, Advance Auto Parts and Genuine Parts Company (Automotive Segment)3 Represents median of Planet Fitness, Wingstop, National Vision and Floor & Décor4 Represents median of McDonald’s, Starbucks, Walmart and Home Depot

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9.8%

6.8%

2.2%3.4%

4.5% 4.1%

10.8%

5.3%

0.5%

2.9%

6.9%

3.2%

9.7%

5.2%

0.8%2.4%

6.3%

3.0%

0%VIOC Boyd Monro Retail Auto Parts Fast Growing / Best-in-Class

RetailStable Retail Brands

Q4 CY 2018 Q1 CY 2019 Q2 CY 2019

Growth Through Same Store Sales

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Last 3 Quarters Same Store Sales Comps

2 3 4

1

7.7% 7.5% 7.4%8.3%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

System-wide Same Store SalesFiscal 2015 – 2019 YTD

10.1%

• On-track for 13th consecutive year of positive same store sales growth

• 2007 – 2019 YTD average annual same store sales growth of ~6%

1 Historical quarters include only those who have reported CYQ219 Earnings2 Represents median of AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, Advance Auto Parts and Genuine Parts Company (Automotive Segment)3 Represents median of Planet Fitness, Wingstop, National Vision and Floor & Décor4 Represents median of McDonald’s, Starbucks, Walmart and Home Depot

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Strong Culture – Winning With Employees

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1) Attract- Highly selective talent acquisition- Less than 10% of 60,000+ candidates

2) Develop - +200 hours of training on average per employee

annually- Service Center Managers ~650 hours of training

3) Protect- Injuries reduced 55% over last 5 years- Recognized as one of America’s SAFEST

Companies1

4) Retain- Majority of current management promoted through

in-house development

VP Operations

Director Operations

Market Manager

Area Manager

Associate Area Manager

Service Center Manager

100%

100%

100%

88%

88%

87%

VIOC Role InternalHire

1 Source: EHS Today’s America’s Safest Companies 2017

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Superior Technology – Proprietary Point-of-Service Technology

OEM Recommends: 1st Service after 100,000 miles

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Superior Technology – Industry Leader Addressing Key Dissatisfiers

Consumer AppIndustry Leading

Technology Driving Transparency and Trust

And

Enabling Further Advances to Improve Customer Experience

and Retention

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Best-in-Class Marketing

• Data enables analytics that drive return on marketing investment• Differentiated customer experience and technology enable effective advertising

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1 VIOC 2018 Advertising Research Study

4.5

6.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Advertising Impact on Brand Preference1

Initial Rating Post Exposure

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Significant Expansion Opportunity

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Share Gain Beyond Quick Lubes

Committed to Unit Growth

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Significant Share Growth Opportunity Beyond Quick Lubes

Quick Lubes

31%

Car Dealer27%

ASC/Tire Store13%

Other Installer

14%

DIY15%

Source of New VIOC Customers3

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1 Company estimates based on industry data for total DIFM in U.S. (Passenger Car & Light Truck)2 VIOC U.S. oil changes estimate for fiscal year 20193 Survey data provided by VIOC customers over the trailing twelve months as of Q2 FY 2019

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Growth Through Accelerating System Store Count

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862 864 866 899 922 942

1,0681,127

1,2421352

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 YTD

Company Franchise Total1 Since Ashland announced separation September 22, 2015

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Strong Unit Economics for New Stores

Product Sales

RoyaltiesServices Income

Product Sales

Company Franchise

x

EBITDA Contribution Ranges1

~4x

1 Based on internal estimates at maturity and assumes land is leased

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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Franchise Company

$350k - $400k

EBITDA Ramp

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Significant New Market Opportunities for Store Growth

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Organic Expansion

Opportunities in existing and new markets

• Existing markets account for ~60% of U.S. households

• Expansion markets account for ~30% of U.S. households

Team in place to leverage opportunities for organic growth

• Data driven, highly analytical approach

• Company-owned and Franchised Company ExpansionFranchise Development Agreements

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Significant Acquisition Opportunities for Store Growth

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Consolidation opportunity in fragmented market

Note: Store opportunity does not include Canada which represents a projected ~10% upside beyond numbers above

• Company and Franchise are anticipated to accelerate growth with inorganic opportunities

• Approximately 1,500 potential stores are estimated to fit the VIOC business model

• Company acquisitions of Franchisees are expected to be opportunistic and targeted

~9,000 Quick Lube Locations(65% Independent Operators)

~1,500 VIOC Model Prospects

500+Potential Stores

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Targeted VIOC Store Growth ~100 VIOC Stores Per Year

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FY19 YTD FY22

Forecasted Store Count

Company Franchise

~1,700

~1,350

Projected annual store growth mix- Company: ~60, including acquisitions- Franchise: ~40

Franchisees committed to an additional ~220 units by 2024, driven by top 8 operators

Larger acquisitions to provide potential upside to planned VIOC store unit growth

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Key Takeaways – Quick Lubes

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Industry Leading Retail Service Model

Quick, easy and trusted customer experience expected to fuel:• 6% - 8% same store sales growth over the next three years• ~100 new stores per year

Company & Franchise Systems Positioned for

Accelerated Store Growth

Proprietary Talent, Tools & Technology Platforms

Drive Execution & Same Store Sales

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Trends Driving Our Longer-term Strategy

Consumer demand for convenience

More vehicleson the road

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Valvoline is uniquely positioned to benefit from broad industry and consumer trends

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We Have Built a World-class Retail Services Business

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Operational Expertise Vertical Integration Faster Store Growth

Same Store Sale Growth Products

Superior growth, high margins, strong returns

Locations

Control the Value Chain

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Our Future – Driving Business Model Transformation

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OEM Recall

Tires

Glass

Other

Heavy Duty Services

Regional Fleets

Canada

China

REFERRAL PLATFORMS NEW SERVICE MARKETS

Growth through our service-driven model built on trusted customer relationships, convenient locations and fueled by products

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Valvoline 2022: Service-driven Company with Captive Distribution

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FY161 FY22E2

Trend in Adjusted EBITDA Mix

FY19E2

1 For reconciliation of adjusted historical amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated November 8, 2016, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Expected adjusted EBITDA mix based on internal growth assumptions; denotes a forward-looking non-GAAP financial measure that Valvoline is unable to reconcile without unreasonable effort as described in

Valvoline’s earnings release dated July 31, 2019, available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com.

Benefits• Higher margins with attractive tailwinds• Increased stability through expanded captive distribution of product portfolio with end-to-end

control and lower sensitivity to raw material inflation• Platform for expanded service offerings

Core North

America

Core North

America

Core North

America

Int’l Int’l Int’l

Quick Lubes Quick Lubes Quick Lubes

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Q&A

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Thank You!

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