Going backwards? The stalling and reversal of progress in reducing child poverty...

Preliminary emerging findings

Going backwards? The stalling and reversal of

progress in reducing child poverty in Britain and

the groups of children that have been affected

Polly Vizard, Polina Obolenskaya and Kritika Treebhoohun

16th July 2019 CASE Social Exclusion/SPDO Seminar: Inequalities across critical areas of life: Looking back over two decades

Disclaimer

This is work in progress and findings in this presentation should be treated as provisional.

This work contains statistical data from FRS/HBAI dataset which is Crown Copyright. The use of the DWP statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the DWP in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates.

Background (1) Progress in reducing child poverty over two decades: brief literature review • Assessed as part of the SPCC research programme and in the broader literature (e.g. Stewart 2013; Hills 2013, Stewart

and Obolenskaya 2015 2016, Hills 2015, Hills and Stewart 2016, Joyce and Sibieta 2013, Brewer et al 2010, Waldfogel2010, Bradshaw 2017, JRF 2018, Corlett et al 2018)

• Reductions in child poverty 1997-2010 (“Labour’s War on Poverty”) Reductions in poverty driven by falls amongst families with children (Hills 2013, Stewart 2013) Tax and benefit system was the main policy driver of child poverty reductions (Joyce and Sibieta 2013) Three distinct sub-periods:

1998/9 - 2004/5 (rapid and sustained year on year reductions in child poverty) 2004/5 - 2007/8 (rising relative child poverty pre-crisis) 2007/8 - 2009/10: further declines in child poverty (importance of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and

protection at the bottom as the recession took hold (Hills and Stewart 2016, Bradshaw 2017)

• Slowdown of progress under Coalition 2010-2015 Assessments include Hills 2015, Stewart&Obolenskaya 2015 2016, Hills and Stewart 2016, Bradshaw 2017 Protection of bottom end up to 2012/13 with welfare state doing its job BUT change around 2014 as benefits

began to fall behind + forecasts of increasingly regressive distributional effects looking forward (Hills 2015, Stewart & Obolenskaya 2015 2016, Hills & Stewart 2016, Hills et al 2016, De Agostini et al 2017)

SPCC main finding = families with children = key “losers” from Coalition period in power (Stewart & Obolenskaya 2015 2016)

Conservatives 2015 – stalling and reversal of progress?• Forecasts of substantial increases in child poverty in the upcoming period (IFS forecasts, Hood and Waters

2017ab;Resolution Foundation forecasts, Corlett 2019ab) NB IFS 2017 forecasts are pre-, and Resolution Foundation 2019 forecasts are post-, 2018 budget

• Growing body of evidence on the regressive impact of tax and welfare reforms, including adverse impacts on bottom decile, families with children, disabled people, lone parents and women (Hills and Cooper forthcoming; Hood and Waters 2017ab, Portes and Reed 2017&2018, Waters 2018, Cribb et al 2018, Waters 2019, Brewer et al 2019, House of Commons 2019, Johnson 2019, Corlett 2019

• Broader literature: • Destitution (Fitzpatrick et al 2016, 2018) and homelessness (Fitzpatrick and Bramley forthcoming) • Welfare reform and living standards of disabled people (Kennedy et al 2016, EHRC 2017, UN CRPD 2016,

House of Commons 2017) • Food insecurity / increased use of food banks (Scottish Parliament Welfare Reform Committee 2014,

Loopstra et al 2015, Loopstra and Lalar 2017, Human Rights Watch 2019) • Financial hardship associated with implementation of Universal Credit (NAO 2018, Committee of Public

Accounts 2018, Work and Pensions Committee 2019) • Body of evidence relating to children:

Welfare reform and child poverty: CPAG (Tucker 2017), CPAG (2019) Cuts in public expenditure and broader social protection mechanisms (e.g. Office of the Children’s

Commissioner - Kelly et al 2018) SPCC early years paper (Stewart forthcoming)

• JRF (2018) – unravelling of progress

Background (2) Human rights, accountability mechanisms and the concept of non-retrogression

• UN Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty in the UK (Alston 2018, 2019)• 3 core building blocks of a human rights assessment of progress in reducing child poverty

Evaluation o the legal framework for the protection of the human right to an adequate standards of living Recognised in several international human rights treaties that the UK has signed up to The human right to an adequate standard of living is not explicitly codified in Human Rights Act (1998) Substantial weakening of legal accountability mechanisms in England in recent period (CPA duties)

Evaluation of specific policy measures (‘steps taken’) Adequacy of the policy measures that are put in to place to protect and promote the human right to an

adequate standard of living Key policy measures introduced as part of the austerity and welfare reform programme have been

assessed by domestic and international human rights bodies as being inconsistent or potentially inconsistent with international human rights standards

Evaluation of the outcomes achieved (empirical evidence) “Progressive realisation”: expectation that reasonable progress towards the goal of the eliminating child

poverty is made over time (with adequate protection of vulnerable groups) Progress versus retrogression: empirical evidence of slowdown, stalling or reversal of progress in

reducing child poverty and / or adverse outcomes for disadvantaged / at risk groups ?

Research framework and methods

• Uses FRS/HBAI linked dataset• Uses four indicators of child poverty

Anchored low income: household income less than 60% of a fixed threshold (2010/11 medianincome held constant in real terms), BHC and AHC

Relative low income: household income less than 60% of median, BHC and AHC Combined low income and material deprivation: material deprivation and household income

less than 70% median income (BHC) Severe low income and material deprivation: material deprivation and household income below

50% median income BHC• Breakdowns to support equality and human rights monitoring: age, disability, young carer status,

ethnicity, country of birth, lone parent status, no. of children, occupational group, hld econ. activity,tenure

• Limitations Ongoing debates about the measurement and monitoring of poverty Recent recommendations for new poverty measure (Social Metrics Commission) Limitations of FRS/HBAI survey Coding issues (consistency of group identification) Adjustment for survey design – requires safe room access – not yet done!

Main findings (1) Overall (average) rates of child income poverty

• Progress in reducing anchored child poverty has slowed down and stalled in the second decade of the 21st century

• Progress in reducing relative child poverty has stalled and reversed in the second decade of the 21st century

Source: Author's analysis using FRS/HBAI data (1994/95-2016/17). 2017/18 data points are published in DWP (2019). IFS forecast estimates are published in IFS (2017).

44.5%

40.5%

23.4%

22.4% 18.6%17.4%

15.6%

50.9%

46.2%

29.7%

31.1%

28.4%

27.4%25.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Anchored childpoverty (BHC, GB)

Anchored childpoverty (AHC, GB )

Anchored childpoverty (BHC, UK)

Anchored childpoverty (AHC, UK)

IFS (2017) forecastanchored childpoverty (AHC, UK)

Labours ‘war on poverty’ Coalition

Financial crisis andrecession

Conservatives

Austerity and welfare reform

Progress in reducing anchored child poverty has slowed down and stalled

Source: Author's analysis using FRS/HBAI data (1994/95-2016/17). 2017/18 data points are published in DWP (2019). IFS forecast estimates are published in IFS (2017) and Resolution Foundation (2019) forecasts published in Cortlett (2019).)

26.8%

21.0% 22.4%

19.5%

17.5%

19.4%

33.1%

28.3%

31.6%

29.5%

27.4%30.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Relative childpoverty (BHC, GB)

Relative childpoverty (AHC, GB)

Relative childpoverty (BHC, UK)

Relative childpoverty (AHC, UK)

IFS (2017)forecast relativechild poverty(AHC, UK)

ResolutionFoundationforecast(2019)relativechild poverty(AHC, UK)

Be

Labours ‘war on poverty’ Coalition

Financial crisis andrecession

Conservatives

Austerity and welfare reform

Source: Author's Progress in reducing relative child poverty has slowed down and reversed

Main findings (2) – groups of children affected by rising relative child poverty (AHC) between 2010/11 and 2016/17

• There was a statistically significant increase in relative child poverty (AHC) between 2010/11 and 2016/17

• Rising relative child poverty (AHC) over this period affected many of the groups of children we examined in the study

• Increases in relative child poverty (AHC) between 2010/11 and 2016/17 were recorded for a number of at disadvantaged / at risk groups of children

• Gaps in the prevalence of relative child poverty AHC between some at disadvantaged / at risk groups and comparator groups widened between 2010/11 and 2016/17

Trends in relative child poverty (AHC) 2010/11-2016/17 – by group

Source: Author's analysis using FRS/HBAI data. Asterisks show statistically significant change between 2010/11 and 2016/17 (* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01)N/B: Provisional findings (standard errors not corrected for complex survey design)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

/16

2016

/17

Child disability (household level)

At least onedisabled child***

No disabled child***

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%2

01

0/1

1

20

11

/12

20

12

/13

20

13

/14

20

14

/15

20

15

/16

20

16

/17

Lone parent status

Single Parent***

Couple Parent***

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

200

9/1

0

201

0/1

1

201

1/1

2

201

2/1

3

201

3/1

4

201

4/1

5

201

5/1

6

201

6/1

7Household economic activity

No working adult***

One working adult***

All adults in work***

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

20

10

/11

20

11

/12

20

12

/13

20

13

/14

20

14

/15

20

15

/16

20

16

/17

Number of children

Three or morechildren ***

Two children ***

One child

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%19

94

/95

199

5/9

6

199

6/9

719

97

/98

199

8/9

9

199

9/0

020

00

/01

200

1/0

220

02

/03

200

3/0

420

04

/05

200

5/0

6

200

6/0

720

07

/08

200

8/0

920

09

/10

201

0/1

120

11

/12

201

2/1

320

13

/14

201

4/1

520

15

/16

201

6/1

7

Relative Child Poverty (AHC), by Lone Parent Status

lone parentfamily

couple family

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

199

4/9

5

199

5/9

6

199

6/9

7

199

7/9

8

199

8/9

9

199

9/0

0

200

0/0

1

200

1/0

2

200

2/0

3

200

3/0

4

200

4/0

5

200

5/0

6

200

6/0

7

200

7/0

8

200

8/0

9

200

9/1

0

201

0/1

1

201

1/1

2

201

2/1

3

201

3/1

4

201

4/1

5

201

5/1

6

201

6/1

7

Anchored Child Poverty (BHC), by Lone Parent Status

loneparentfamily

couplefamily

Source: Author's analysis using FRS/HBAI data.

Main findings (3) – groups of children affected by rising severe child poverty between 2010/11 and 2016/17

• The overall increase in combined child material deprivation and severe low income between 2010/11 and 2016/17 was not statistically significant

• However, increases in severe child poverty were recorded for some groups of at risk children and some of the groups of children that were most disadvantaged at the baseline (in 2010/11)

• Gaps in the prevalence of severe child poverty between some at risk / disadvantaged groups and comparator groups also widened between 2010/11 and 2016/17

Trends in severe child poverty 2010/11-2016/17 – by group

Source: Author's analysis using FRS/HBAI data. Asterisks show statistically significant change between 2010/11 and 2016/17 (* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01)N/B: Provisional findings (standard errors not corrected for complex survey design)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Lone parent status

Single Parent **

Couple Parent

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2010

/11

-2

012

/13

2011

/12

-2

013

/14

2012

/13

-2

014

/15

2013

/14

-2

015

/16

2014

/15

-2

016

/17

Ethnicity (pooled samples)

Black/BlackBritish - African

White

*

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

20

10

/11

20

11

/12

20

12

/13

20

13

/14

20

14

/15

20

15

/16

201

6/1

7

Child disability (household level)

At least onedisabled child **

No disabled child

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

20

10

/11

20

11

/12

20

12

/13

20

13

/14

201

4/1

5

20

15

/16

20

16

/17

Parental disability (household level)

At least one disabledparent **

No disabled parent

Findings (4) - multivariate analysis confirms that the (independent) associations between relative child poverty (AHC) and some of the characteristics we are concerned with in this study strengthened between 2010/11 and 2016/17

• The overall (average) odds of relative child poverty (AHC) were higher in 2016/17 than in 2010/11 after controlling for other factors

• The probabilities of relative child poverty (AHC) predicted by multivariate (logistic) regression were higher in 2016/17 than in 2010/11 for most groups of children, and the increases were greater for some at disadvantaged / at risk groups of children compared to comparator groups

• The strengthening of the effects of living in single parent families relative to couple families, and living in families with three or more children relative to children with no siblings, are particularly striking

The probability of relative child poverty (AHC) increased more amongst children from loneparent families than for children living in couple families (comparing 2016/17 with 2010/11)

Probabilities of relative child poverty (AHC) predicted by multivariate (logistic) regression

Controlling for equality characteristics and no. of children

Also controlling for socio-economic characteristics (including labour market status)

Authors’ analysis of the HBAI/FRS, Great Britain

The probability of relative child poverty (AHC) also increased moreamongst children living in families with 3+ children

Probabilities of relative child poverty (AHC) predicted by multivariate (logistic) regression(controlling for equality characteristics, no. of children, and socio-economic characteristics)

Authors’ analysis of the HBAI/FRS, Great Britain

Conclusions

• The findings add to a growing body of evidence on the adverse impact of austerity and welfare reform measures on the living standards of different groups.

• The finding that there was a deterioration in the position of several at risk groups of children and children that were already highly disadvantaged at the baseline of the group analysis (in 2010/11) raises fundamental issues of social justice and human rights.

• The findings add to the evidence in other SPDO papers, which show that there has been a substantial slowdown and stalling of social progress in the second decade of the 21st century across critical domains of life affecting living standards, health and physical safety and security.

Overall, the empirical findings from the paper raise fundamental questionsabout retrogression in social outcomes, the impact of underlying structuralchanges in social policies and social protection, and the failure to protectdisadvantaged / at risk groups of children during the period of austerity andwelfare reform

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Going backwards? The stalling and reversal of progress in reducing child poverty...

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