GOES-R PG Product Usage atWFO Omaha, NE (OAX)

(Low Cloud/Fog , GeoColor, and UWCI)

Daniel NietfeldScience and Operations Officer (SOO)

dan.nietfeld@noaa.gov

OAX History with GOES-R PG• Ingesting products since ~ March 2010– Low Cloud/Fog, GeoColor– CI products since September 2010 (stable)– MODIS/Snow Cover off and on since Jan. 2011

(mostly off due to local LDAD/bandwidth issues)• Forecaster usage is largely a function of

product timeliness and reliability (availability) - can’t stress this enough

• Have had diverse weather conditions

The WFO “Backdoor” : LDAD

Major WFO Challenge:

GOES-R Proving Ground Products are not on the SBN so they must get into the WFO via the LDM/LDAD “backdoor” which is getting clogged

OAX Forecaster Feedback:Low Cloud/Fog Product

• Low Cloud/Fog product is superior to the legacy product (or at least it is used more)– One year of forecaster “preference” feedback

• LC/F product does an especially good job of distinguishing between multiple cloud layers at varying heights

• LC/F product is the primary imagery used at night

March 10, 2011 Fog FormationLegacy 11-3.9 micron image – where is the fog?

Low Clouds(mostlyMVFR)

Notethe densefogreport

CIRA Low Cloud/Fog Product

Highlightingthe snowfieldwhich is cooling the air to result in patchy valley fog formation Snow has a low

reflectivity in the shortwave region

METARs Ord, Nebraska

KODX 100853Z 32005KT 8SM CLR

KODX 100812Z 30004KT 4SM BR SCT001

KODX 100808Z 27004KT 1 1/4SM BR SCT001

KODX 100753Z 00000KT 1/4SM FZFG VV001

KODX 100748Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM BR SCT001

KODX 100711Z 25003KT 3/4SM BR CLR

KODX 100706Z 00000KT 1 3/4SM BR CLR

KODX 100653Z 00000KT 7SM FEW001

GeoColor Products

OAX Forecaster Feedback:GeoColor Product

• Also does a great job of distinguishing between varying layers/heights

• Need more experience with assessing the opacity of the clouds, but feedback is positive

• City lights do help with geo-referencing• Land colors also help with distinguishing clouds

from land and identifying land features• Thunderstorm Anvils don’t show detail (OTs, etc…)

Legacy Visible

CB topdetailsvisible

GeoColor

CB topdetailslessvisibleBut…identificationof land featuresfar superior!

UW CI Products

• Ingesting products since summer 2010 • When used alone, we “experienced” the stove-

pipe • Forecasters want this product and want to use it,

because CI is very important• Two CI challenge scenarios:– Standard afternoon convection– Nocturnal, elevated CI (usually on LLJ) ~ 4am-5am

• Critical to incorporate other environmental parameters / sources / “ingredients”

Positive Detection Case 2210 UTC 10 April 2011

Cloud Top Cooling Rate with METARs

Thermodynamic EnvironmentSupported Convection:

CAPE = 1420 J/KGCINH = -54 J/kg

UW CI with RUC CINH field“edge of cap”

False Alarm Case 2000 UTC 10 April 2011

No positive buoyancy(zero CAPE)

Convective Initiation

• COMET COOP Proposal with U. of Nebraska• Evaluate Statistics on UWCI POD, FAR• Incorporate other environmental parameters• Explore “fusion” of various data sources– What environmental products are useful ?– What thresholds, etc… lead to best results ?– Can GIS be utilized as a proxy to create the

“Artificial Intelligence” ??

Conceptual Model for “Intelligent CI”

• Want to add UW Ice Exclusion Zone to AWIPS• Want to layer parameters to determine

environments that will often show positive CI

Resulting CI inclusion zone

Ice exclusion zone

CAPE values > 100 J/KG

CINH values < 80 J/KG

LCL level upward vertical velocity

Some other useful parameter

Just an example

of parameters

Explore with GIS ???

The “Evaluation Challenge”

• Forecaster Challenges:– What do we say? (need a useful eval. form)– Too busy with other duties, weather, etc…

• OAX alternative solution: utilize cheap University Students!

• Partnering with Universities– Informal (Student Volunteers, SCEPs, etc…)– Formal COMET Project (s)

AWIPS II Capabilities

• OAX “flips the switch” from operational AWIPS1 to AWIPSII on July 17 (2 months from now)

• Raytheon has been experimenting with enhanced satellite visualization

• AWIPSII looks promising for satellite data