GODAE-IGST XII 2007

Demonstration/application/impact-of-observattionDemonstration/application/impact-of-observattionJapanJapan

bybyMasa KAMACHIMasa KAMACHI

Outline1. Member systems of Japan GODAE2. MOVE/MRI.COM3. K-74. Impact to NWP (Kyushu Univ. and JMA) Action 7

GODAE-IGST XII 2007

MRI MOVE/MRI.COM (Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation) system uses three dimensional Variational (3D-VAR) method with vertical coupled T-S Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) modal decomposition with area partition.

Obs. Data: Sat-Alt, SST, in situ T & S (e.g., ship, ARGO, Tao/Triton)Aims

1. Opt. Init. Cond. for Forecasting (Seasonal-Interannual (ElNino), Ocean state around Japan)

2. Reanalysis:

Western North Pacific : 1992-2005 North Pacific : 1960-2005 Global : 1949-2005 Reanalysis dataset will be opened through IPRC/APDRC & JAMSTEC data centers.

MOVE/MRI.COM system

Area Global North Pacific

AimsInitial Condition For

Seasonal & ElNino Forecasting

Monitoring and Forecasting around

Japan

Oper. JMA ODAS COMPASS-K

Res.

(next oper.)

MOVE-G

(Prediction,

Reanalysis)

MOVE-NP, WNP

(Prediction,

Reanalysis)

GODAE-IGST XII 2007

Examples of Water Mass in the North PacificMesoscale eddy and water mass (2000/

10, vertical section along 144E)

Temperature Salinity

North Pacific Intermediate WaterSalinity-min. （ 165E， 2000/4 and 9）

2000/9 2000/4

Assim

Independent

Obs.

Kuroshio (subtropical) and Oyashio (subpolar) waters

Best Demonstration:

COMPASS-K(Operational Ocean Assimilation/Prediction System

in Japan Meteorological Agency)Success of 60-day Prediction

of the 2004 Kuroshio Large Meander

Assim/initial state (2004/05/09) Velocity field Forecast (2004/06/30)

JMA Japan-GODAE SERVER 　 http://godae.kishou.go.jp/

OSE/OSSE

• OSE sensitivity of salinity obs. (many examples!), TAO/Triton, Argo, SSH for state estimation in the equatorial Pacific and ElNino forecasting

• SV sensitivity for causes of Kuroshio Large Meander

Impact of T/P data on Heat content anomaly (20N)

With T/P Without T/P

Rossby wave is clearly seenRossby wave is smoothed

Impact of T/P data on Heat content anomaly (35N)

With T/P Without T/P

Rossby wave is clearly seenRossby wave is unrecongnizable

T/P data improves the expression of Rossby waves

Barrier layer thickness at the equator

Without Salinity Correction

Salinity is Nudged to Climatology

With Salinity Correction

Thicker Barrier Layer Preceding the salinity front

Temperature comparison with TAO at Eq. 140W

Jun 1997 Sep. 1997

S-ASSIMS-CLIMS-FREES-TAO

Result with salinity correction reproduces the thermocline deepening in the El Nino period best.

Integrating the singular vector with the adjoint model

1200m Temp

Right singular vector

500m adjoint sensitivity to the

current

Black line: 0.2m contour of the

SSH in background state

(Fujii et al., 2007)

利用イメージ２

水温、塩分、流速等の海況により魚の分布・回遊が影響されるため、情報により魚種や漁場を選定できます。

漁業・遊漁関係者の活用；魚種・漁場（エリア）漁魚・遊漁の効率的なエリア設定に

※画面はイメージです。

Coastal Application (Japan Weather Association)<- Boundary condition (MRI)

東京湾・相模湾の広域水温予報（ 3）

予報範囲：東京湾・相模湾

予報内容：水温

　深　さ　：２００ｍ

初期時刻： 2006年 9月 22日 9時予測時刻：初期時刻から 51時間先迄

ムービーで見る

メニューに戻る

（℃）

Rokkasho monitoring system

North Pacific model: 1/6x1/8 deg

1/6x1/8 deg. With Data Assimilation

1/18x1/24 deg Northwestern North Pacific model1/54x1/72deg Coastal model

tone: bottom topography

Results of the inner model (SST)

40

41

42

141 142 143 144

2002.640

41

42

141 142 143 144

2002.740

41

42

141 142 143 144

2002.8

2002 Jun. - Aug.observation

model result

4. Impact to NWP (Action 7)

• JMA 　 (Ocean Forecasting and NWP groups): resolution’s effect

• RIAMOM: SST_obs + model info’s effect

• Typhoon forecast: with/without lateral boundary condition for a coupled atmosphere and ocean mixed layer model

JMA Example of MSM Prediction: JMA Example of MSM Prediction: Surface humidity (18UTC 25 May)Surface humidity (18UTC 25 May)JMA Example of MSM Prediction: JMA Example of MSM Prediction: Surface humidity (18UTC 25 May)Surface humidity (18UTC 25 May)

Predicted Humidity（MGDSST）

Predicted Humidity（NPDSST）

High humidity was successfully predicted by using MGDSST

Tokyo

GOES VIS 00UTC 26 May 2005

Sea Fog

Tokyo

The test shows that the predictions of precipitation and air temperature on land are also improved by using MGDSST.

Operational use of MGDSST in JMA MSM and RSM, regional model, began in March, 2006.

Impact test in the Global Atmospheric Model (GSM) is still being conducted.

SST Estimates

Optimal Interpolation Data Assimilation

1/18-20, 2005 1/18-20, 2005

http://www.ocean.caos.tohoku.ac.jp/ http://jes.riam.kyushu-u.ac.jp/

RIAMOM system (Kyushu Univ.) by Hirose’s group

Precipitable Water

48-hour forecast by MM5– Yamamoto and Hirose (2006)

NGSST RIAM SST

Infrared Image (IR1)

1/20, 2005 1/20, 2005