Goals in Tier 1 European Football: Are they all Equal?
Transcript of Goals in Tier 1 European Football: Are they all Equal?
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Goals in Tier 1 European
Football: Are they all Equal?
Dr. Garry Gelade
Business Analytic Ltd
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Problem of Context All performance is
performance in a context
Failing to account for theeffects of context leads tobiased evaluations ofindividual ability
EPL recruit 50% of playersfrom outside the UK
60+ different nationalities
How do we evaluate playerswho have not played in theEPL?
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Recruitment Decisions
2004 - Risky Decision 2012 - No Brainer
Age 21 15 Goals 61 Appearances (Feyenoord) Goals/90 0.37
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2004 2012
Age 29 96 Goals 194 Appearances (Arsenal) Goals/90 0.67
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Problem
Understand the different contexts in Europeanfirst tier football.
Do we have a level-playing field?
Is it easier to score in some leagues than others?
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Sources of Information
Conventional wisdom (Guru/expert)
Official rankings
Historical records
Direct observation
Analytics
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Conventional Wisdom
[Damian] Comolli worked on his own rule ofthumb ....
.... with the exception of Ruud van Nistelrooy,strikers imported from Holland only score around
a third of the goals in the Premier League. Daily Mail, 17 September 2012
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Conventional Wisdom
Garry Gelades Rule of Thumb ....
.... Dont trust anyone elses Rule of Thumb.
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Official Rankings
Club coefficients based on the results of all Europeanclubs in UEFA club competition.
Increasing number of points awarded for each stagereached.
Points aggregated over past five seasons.
Clubs aggregated by country.
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Europa
League
First qualifying round elimination 0.25 points
Group stage win 2.0 points
...etc ....
Champions
League
First qualifying round elimination 0.5 points
Group stage participation 4.0 points
..etc ....
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UEFA Association Rankings
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Historical: Erd EPL Transfers
Eredivisie PremiershipPlayer Productivity Team Productivity
Bryan Ruiz 0.54 Fulham 0.11
Suarez 0.75 Liverpool 0.47
Van Persie 0.23 Arsenal 0.52Kluivert 0.49 Newcastle 0.24
Van Nistelrooy 0.77 Man United 0.63
Kezman 0.86 Chelsea 0.16
Kuyt 0.55 LIverpool 0.25
Overmars 0.31 Arsenal 0.25
Bergkamp 0.56 Arsenal 0.28
Alves Martins 1.15 Middlesboro 0.24
Ryan Babel 0.19 Liverpool 0.15
Arjen Robben 0.24 Chelsea 0.22
van der Vart 0.44 Spurs 0.38
Collins John 0.28 Fulham 0.21
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Average ProductivityErd = 0.53 gmEPL = 0.33 gm
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Historical: Erd
EPL Transfers
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European connections
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Barcelona RealMadrid
Man.United
Stoke Fulham
Bilbao Celta Vigo
Chelsea
Spain
England
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DataCompetition No.
Matches
English Premiership 2,280
Dutch Eredivisie 1,836
Italian Serie A 2,280
German Bundesliga 1,836
Spanish La Liga 2,242
French Ligue 1 2,280
Champions/Europa League 537
Seasons 2006/7 2011/12171 teams
13,291 matches
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Model
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AWAYHOMEHOMEStrengthDefensive,StrengthAttackingGoals
HOMEAWAYAWAYStrengthDefensive,StrengthAttackingGoals
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Model
Diagonally inflated
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Bivariate Poisson
Goals are Events
Goals For andGoals Against
More draws
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Modelling process
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ModelData
Attacking &
Defensive strengthsfor each team
Analyse Simulate
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Attacking Strength by
Country
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Team AttackingStrength
Barcelona .85Real Madrid .82Manchester United .67Arsenal .58Chelsea .58Bayern Munich .53Internazionale .45Werder Bremen .44Atltico de Madrid .43Liverpool .43
Top Ten Attacks
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Defensive Strength by
Country
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Top Ten Defences
Team DefensiveStrength
Manchester United .76Barcelona .71Chelsea .68Liverpool .62Real Madrid .47Milan .44Arsenal .42Everton .42Bayern Munich .39Internazionale .37
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Overall Team Strength by
Country
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Top Ten Teams
Team StrengthBarcelona 2.26
Real Madrid 2.01
Manchester United 1.81
Chelsea 1.56
Arsenal 1.38
Bayern Munich 1.25
Liverpool 1.22
Internazionale 1.08
Milan 1.04
Manchester City .95
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Validation check
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Correlation=.83
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RESULTS
Use Attack & Defensive Strengths to calculate number ofgoals scored by the average Dutch team
a) Playing in the Erd B) Playing in the Premiership
17 Goals in Erd == 10 Goals in EPL
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Eredivisie Premiership
Goals scored per match 1.35 0.80
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Comparison with HistoricalsTeam Strength Analytics Historical Data (Individuals)
Average Dutch Team
10 goals in EPL 17 in Erd
Average French Team in France: 1.07 goals
Average French Team in the Premiership: 0.95goals
10 goals in PL == 11.3 in France
10 goals in EPL 16 in Erd
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Eredivisie Premiership
Goalsscored
1.35 0.80
Eredivisie Premiership
Goals/Match
0.53 0.33
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Is RvP an outlier?
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0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
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Erd 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Goals/90
Season
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Thanks for Listening.
Any questions Ill be around to
chat.
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For further information or to discuss your requirements, please
contact Garry [email protected]
Garrys Linkedin profile:
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44b
mailto:[email protected]://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]