forecast the future

martin @koeppelmann• founder of Fairlay.com - Bitcoin prediction market • started Gnosis January 2015 • general Ethereum/Blockchain research on state-channels and

Consensus game theory • circles - basic income on the blockchain (aboutcircles.com) • recently covered theDAO heist with 3 FAQs

efficient economic activity depends on forecasts

building the world’s most efficient forecasting tool

higher efficiency through decomposition

this goal can only be reached with a decentralized blockchain platform

It must be possible to join the platform permissionless

unbundling of roles

Oracle Ethereum Blockchain

add event sign result

DAPP

Listing events

Trading Gnosis Contract

Redeem Winnings

Oracle Contract

event signed

BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT (HOLDS COLLATERAL UNTIL ON OF THE

OUTCOME TOKENS IS REDEEMABLE FOR THE COLLATERAL)

Oracle

COLLATERAL TOKEN

TOKEN OUTCOME 1

TOKEN OUTCOME 2

TOKEN OUTCOME N

Buy information – remove uncertainty

• Lets say you need information if a future event will happen or not for a decision. Putting up bets on a prediction market could be the most cost efficient way to get this information. By creating bets on and against the outcome of the event you create an incentive for everyone who has more information about this event. To achieve this the use of a automated market maker like this is most efficient.

Selling information – remove uncertainty

• Corresponding you can sell information. Either because you are a great researcher and you want to monetize your work or because you just have inside information. There are good reasons to legalize insider trading. Why should a information that is already available be withhold from public?

Hedging – insure yourself

• An insurance is basically a bet. A fire insurance for example is a bet that your house will burn down. If it does you get a lot of money, if it doesn’t you loose the money invested. Prediction markets could open the role of an insurance company to everyone a could make the margins razor thin.

Creating an incentive – setting up a bounty

• Bet that something will not happen to give others an incentive to make it happen. Lets say you bet 10 BTC against a new feature beeing in the next Bitcoin core version. This is basically setting up a bounty for everyone to make it happen. We have written more about this scheme here.

Signaling – make a statement

• Lets say you are starting a kickstarter campaign for a product. It probably would increase your credibility significantly if you place a big bet on the event that you will deliver in time if the funds are raised.

to govern – Futarchy

• Decentralized market based decision making. Set up markets that will predict the influence/outcome of a decision. Automatically chose the decision with the best predicted outcome.

Gambling - make it cheap

• While today bookmakers pay out only about 90% of the wagers prediction markets could increase this number close to 100%. Even a weekly random bet of $100 on a sport event would sum up to average costs of less than $50 per year (assuming a payout rate of > 99%)

gnosis crowdsale• 4 weeks starting a DevCon II • ETH will go into the Gnosis DAO - governed by Futarchy • Gnosis DAO tokens will give owners the right to create markets

without fees • fees on the platform will be distributed to token holders • will fund Gnosis platform and the oracle platform • chose how much the core team should get • Gnosis DAO vs. Gnosis Fund