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Transcript of GMF Nato - South Atlantic
8/8/2019 GMF Nato - South Atlantic
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p a p e r s e r i e s
southern atlanticism
Geopolitics and strateGy for the
other half of the atlantic rim
ian o. lesser
The German marshall Fund oF The uniTed sTaTes
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© 2010 Te German Marshall Fund of the United States. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writingfrom the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund of the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650
F 1 202 265 1662
Tis publication can be downloaded for free at http://www.gmfus.org/publications/index.cfm. Limited print
copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].
GMF Paper Series
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety of transatlantic topics by sta, fellows, and partners of the German
Marshall Fund of the United States. Te views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the
view of GMF. Comments from readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
About GMF
Te German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institu-
tion dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.
GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders to discuss
the most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation can address a variety of
global policy challenges.
Founded in 1972 through a gi from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a
strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven oces in
Europe: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.
About Brussels Forum
Brussels Forum is an annual high-level meeting of the most inuential American and European political, corporate, and
intellectual leaders to address pressing challenges currently facing both sides of the Atlantic. Participants include heads of
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Southr Atlticism
Geopolitics and strategy for the
other half of the Atlantic Rim
Brussls Forum Ppr Sris
Mrch 2010
Ian O. Lee*
Te Gean Maa Fnd f e Uned Sae
Indn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Redveng e S Aan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Te Aan and e Gba S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Rng Pwe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
New Geee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Te New Fnna Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sen Exe, Sen Inee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Se Aenave Sena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Aan a Mveabe Fea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ian f Saegy and Py . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
*Ian O. Lee a en anaan few w e Gean Maa Fnd f e Uned Sae (GMF). A GMF, e de e Medeanean
Py Pga. P jnng GMF, D. Lee en ve a deade a e RAND Can. F 994-995, e wa a ebe f e Py
Pannng Sa a e U.S. Deaen f Sae.
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim3
T ae exe anaan ean n awde fae, and anae e e f a e
baaned and dvee e f ane and
e Aan ban. Wa d be e dve f a
new and wde Aan? Tend n e gba
a a we ae a f e eqan, angde
angng eae f nana we and ena.
New and wef a ae eegng, and evea
f ee w be fnd n e Aan. A e
ae e, e fegn and ey y agenda
angng n fnna e. Se f e
nen nen, f enegy ey
e envnen, f nenana e gan, w eanae f e be
aed by deveen de e n Aan.
A wde, nfed Aan ye ne ena
f e fe, b ady e key ne.
T anay vey e evvng ene, exe
aenave ena, and ffe e an
f anaan aegy.
F e a 5 yea, a ea, e ene f gavy n anaan ean a been fy ed n
e Nen Heee. T eay nkey
be vened anye n. B e nex
deade key bng a gnfan ebaanng
f ean and and wn e Aan ae,
w e S Aan ayng a age e n
a, en, and ey e. T f
w be dven by e e f Baz and S Afa
a gba a, a we a e gwng e f
We Afa a an enegy vde. Envnena
aenge eanang f e S Aan
w a ay a e. Cne n b de f e Aan, and n b eee, ae key
eek new geee n e exena ean,
enane e gea weg, and
dvefy e ea and aeg e. In e
e, Aan enan w be edveed,
eaeed, and eaed. Te e ay be e e
f e Aan dene, e abe and
ay enfng, e eang n an
n en.
Introduction
1
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts4
In many ways, the
rebalancing of
Atlantic geopolitics
is less a new
development than
a rediscovery of
historic patterns.
In nkng g eve f, ednn beween e anaan “n” and
“” de n nf gega
defnn. Te anay nde e Sen
Heee and e g en ade.
B a ake an f ean w
Mex and e Cabbean, and a f N and
We Afa we abve e eqa. Te eevan
dnn e a an gega. F
e eeve f Baz’ aeg nee, e
eevan deaan baby n fa ff e
eqa. Eean and N Aean g
e ne e e T f Cane NATO’ gna en dean a e 3d
aae. In gea e, e “” n e
eye f e bede.
In any way, e ebaanng f Aan
ge e a new deveen an a
edvey f aen. F ene,
e Eean engageen n e Aan wd
ad gnfan en a we a nen
denn, and a n, en denn
wa fa e nen n en and aeg
e. F e 5 eny g e end f e 7, Eean engageen n e Cabbean
and Lan Aea, and e geve exann
f ea e dwn e a f Afa and n
e Indan Oean, gave e S Aan a ena
ae n e a f ee. Te N Aan
wa, eavey eakng, a aeg bakwae.
S , e f eny f Aean eene
n e nenana age wa aed a age
exen by nee kng n e Ween
Heee, and wad en Ee and e
Bazan Ve Ada Ma Cea Fe debe anagnay aeg ne f Tndad and Tbag Daka a5 degee n ade. Ced n Mane Aane da Ra, “OAan S Nv Deaf Mnda,” n Mane Fan,ed., Pga, Os Estados Unidos e a Africa Austral (Lbn: IPRI/L-Aean Fndan, 6).
Medeanean.
P-na Lan Aea aa ad egna e e, nang
w e eabed age f a n and
. In e f deade f e eny,
Agenna wa a gy deveed ny w a
e aa ne ang e ge n e wd.
Ye, w qen, e a eny n
anaan ean a been aaezed by e
ay f e nen ban. I a been aed
by e weg f nveen beween nen
Ee and e Uned Sae, and e eave
f ey ean and ea n a eN Aan, ndeed by e exeene
f w wd wa.3 Tday, dee e e f e
Paf R ene, e Aan wd ean
a ednan n n ade and fnane.
Fw a e Aan an f $ n
n ave fegn de nveen ane.
Te bk f avy N-N, eavng
naed negave ena wn and
w e en ban.4 Te Cd Wa ngy
enfed N Aan ax. F a 5
yea, e key aeg ze wee be fnd n
e nen and ena fn, and e aeaae ee aea, and e key a
ean wee aayed ang a ne eng
f Bnn Pa, Lndn, and Wangn.
Te nen denn wa aan, and
e en eey wa agnazed. Te
nn-agned veen nwandng, e
ane f a n e “gba ,” wee
ey aeed a a, wa agey devave f
e and en eneed eewee.
Te eae Aean da n wee eabed nM and Pga, ndng e Aze.
3 See Fe Dav, The Atlantic System (Lndn: Aen andUnwn 943).
4 T agen deveed a eng by Anne-Mae Sagen “Aea’ Edge: Pwe n e Newked Ceny,” Foreign
Affairs, Jan./Feb. 9.
Rediscovering the South Atlantic
2
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim5
Te ng, aed y f S Aan ae eevane f e nex age n wde Aan
ean. On e ve de, ne a
Pga and San, eea nenana
affa n een deade, w ave a aave
advanage n ndeandng and engagng ane
a Baz and Agenna, and M. Te
egay a a a bed de, f e. Few
Bazan Angan wd w ev e
na exeene f n- ean n e
Aan. Indeed, bed e ay we be
ang e eadng eden a enfgedand wde e f anaan ean. A a
de e n Aan anea enk
e Aan dene, ey ay ny
eek dane eeve f d and neqa
ean. J a NATO nne fae
bana b day aenge n
ea e Aab and M wd, aane
eff n any a f e Aan wd
fae bana dega eane ang
b and e ee.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts6
It is also likely
much new
interaction and
cooperation in
the wider Atlantic
space will take
place at the
level of cities
and regions,
and not just
between central
governments and
multinational
institutions.
Deveen n e gba a a we wave an nfene n e aae f ean
and e Aan. Tee end ae key
ave ea gnfane. F, e wee
en gw ae ave been eavey
g. Te eene f end w be
e nfene f eegng a a Baz,
Ngea, and Anga, and de new aen
f en and a nean. Cna and
Inda ae e bv ae f aned g-
gw ae dvng a ange n gba
a eny. B an exae w
a be fnd wn e Aan ae. Te ady exandng e f Cna n We Afa and S
Aea a been wdey ded. A e ae
e, e ng Aan a ae key aqe
new ake n e d Aan ene. Feed
by enegy eanng, Angan nve ae aeady
a vbe eene n bankng and ea eae n
Pga, n e aen f ngandng Bazan
nveen n Pga and eewee n Ee.
Ove e, ge-gw ae g naw e
ey ga beween Ee and N Aea,
n e ne and, and e ene f eadngLan Aean and Afan ne n e e.
A e nana eve, an fe a f a e
aeve nenana fe. I a key
exand e aeady bana eve f anaan
nean a e eve f nn, f, and
ndvda. A e e w key
be a e gbazed . W qen, e
deveng ne f e “Gba S” w
be e and e eavy banzed.
Leadng exae f ee end w be fnd n
e Aan, w ega e a Sã
Pa and Lag eadng e way. Te aegadjen a ay be eqed ee ee
dega aenge w enfe e need f
e ean beween n and n e
Aan ae.5
Unde ee ndn, akey new nean and ean n
e wde Aan ae w ake ae a e eve
f e and egn, and n j beween ena
gvenen and nana nn.
Send, dyna a e Gba S a
aeady aed e ena f new agnen a a
n aenave e Eaan de. T
a ng been a f e fegn y de
n Inda, S Afa, and Baz (and, f e,
Cna and Ra). Regna a a dvee a
Mex and Tkey ae aaed e nef aenave agnen and dvefan,
fen exeed n e vabay f e S,
tier mondisme, and an dega aaen
nn-agnen. Eegng a n e Aan
aena ay fnd eeve n beween deny
w e Gba S, ndng Cna and Inda,
e wn egna abn, and e e
f enaned ean w Aan ane,
n and . Tee enn ae nkey
be fy eved, b wde qen f deny
and affny w ay a e n ang e fe f
ean w e d we f e N Aan.T e exen a key nenana nn,
ndng e UN Sey Cn ae efed
and exanded, qen w ake n geae
gnfane. If Baz, S Afa, and Inda
bee ebe f e Sey Cn ve
e nex deade, e ean ae a gba,
en deny ay be vey ng. Wee
aen n, e debae ve e ef
f gba gvenane key be ayed , n
age eae, n e Aan, w S
Afa, Baz, and ea Ngea a key advae
f ange.
5 F a dn f ee dega ange and egea and ge-en neqene, ee Jak Gdne, “Te New Pan Bb: Te F Megaenda W ange e Wd,” Foreign Affairs, Jan./Feb. .
The Atlantic and the Global South
3
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim7
Religion may
be a declining
presence in the
public space in
the Atlantic north
it is a dynamic
element in the
future of the
Atlantic south.
Td, e f e key a fe affeng eaeg envnen ae nned n
e , a , f e T f Cane.
Regn an an a f e e.
Ca ean a en a and a
fe n e Aan . Ia an exandng
egn n Sb-Saaan Afa and Lan Aea,
and a dyna fe n nana and egna
. In We Afa, e aen f Ia
a bee a eadng e n e aby
and ey f e egn—and a e f
Aean and Eean ey nen. A
e Aan ae, newe evangea e aeakng gnfan nad n e ean f e
adna e. Tee end ae nfenng
ee and e Aan n enay
fnd way. Tey ae eang new e n a
n- and anaan ba. Regn ay
be a denng eene n e b ae n e
Aan n; a dyna eeen n e fe
f e Aan .
F, e Aan d e f e key
e f e evn f en and a
de. Venezea and Agenna ave ed eage agan e “Wangn Cnen”
and 99-ea an ab e effay f
en and a ef. In a e daa
b agaby e eave ene, Baz ffe
ane, ef- de a d e
Wangn Cnen a a eng. In key
ee and e Aan, ndng
S Afa, ave bee a
wef fe ang exena a we a nenae. Te gba en a a a
f n ae eef. Tee ae nw few ae
wee e ge f bea en ef
weeaedy ebaed. Ye e deveena
aenge ean ak. F a dyna,
Baz aged by kng ne dae.
Te anda fae aeve a bee
dbn f wea n e enegy ae f
We Afa we knwn. Le we-endwed
ne n We Afa ffe e f e ge
deveena aenge.
Deazan n e bade ene a a
been ne f e defnng end n b de f
e Aan , aned by e ann f
aaed n S Afa, and e ef f
van e n Agenna and Baz. T e
exen a deay n nne a an
bjeve n anaan aegy, e f e key
e e—and key fe e—w be fnd
n e Aan . Ye e aee f e Aan
ae f We Afa and S Aea f
y agenda ade n e N weang n,
wee e Aean f n ne-eand deay n, Ee’ wn band
f ndnay baed n anaeny and e f
aw. By an, Cna aea a a eavey
ndeandng en and a ane—a
ea f nw. Inda and Maaya, gwng a n
e S Aan n e wn g, eeay n
e enegy e, ae ay agfwad and
e ndna ane.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts8
Baz a fen been ayed a e eennany f e fe. Many anay ae nw
wng be a Baz’ en a aved. If
een GDP gw ae f and 5-6 een
ae aned, Baz e bee ne f e
wd’ fve bgge ene by e dde f e
eny.6 W a an f e 9 n, a
gwng dde a, and e gada aean
f adnay kng ne dae, e
ny ay fnay be e f a e abe and
ab e. Wee ee aeveen
wee ade be by e en gvenen f
Inan La da Sva, e e f ef n ae by edee, Fenand Henqe
Cad, e a deade a aked a fnd
f f e nfan-dden b and b
exeene f e a. Pve deveen
abnd, f e nned e f Ebae,
a eadng aeae any, e een
dvey f va new ffe and ga eeve.
Te ny’ n a a eadng aga
de a been enfed by e e n gba
deand f bfe—a e f nvey n
wn g.7 R de Jane w e e
Oy n 6; a yb aeveen,ea, b ne a w e e ny’
nfae and wae Bazan deny.
Te e f Baz a e ena anf
e e f Lan Aea, and neae e weg
f e S Aan n gba affa
and anaan y.
Te enegy denn eeay newy. Te
age new fnd ang Baz’ ng ane w
key ae e ny ang e eadng wd
de f and ga ve e nex deade.
T w be anfave f e n f vew
6 See “Baz Take Off,” The Economist , Nv. 4-, 9.
7 See T Seange, Evaluating Biofuels: The Consequencesof Using Land to Make Fuels, Be F Pae See(Wangn, DC: Te Gean Maa Fnd f e UnedSae, Ma. 9).
f Baz’ nena deveen. I a aeady been anfave n e f e ny’
ef-nfdene and nenana een.
Tee enegy fnd w a gve e ny a
geae ake n ean w egna ne
n Lan Aea, w en ane a
e Aan n N and We Afa, and n e
ey f ae e f enegy ade.
F e eeve f a and en
deveen, and a a aan n e gba
eny, Baz ed ndae n
a S Aea’ eadng we. Beynd ebjeve f egna eade, a e neeng
en qen nen e fe den f
Baz’ vea exena y. F a f Baz’
adna wane wad e Uned Sae,
be a a e wef and nfden
Baz w eek enane aeg ean
w Wangn, angde a e ea
ane w Ee va Me. In
nex, Baz’ a eade n S Aan
affa ay ake n new eanng. I a kng
fa a e dane f Refe We Afa
e an e dane f Refe any n ne Bazan neand. Beynd an a
and a e, eve Bazan eade
ave een ean w Afan “negb,”
abve a, S Afa, a a key denn f e
ny’ fegn y, ndng nveen and
deveen nave.8 Baz a a ngandng
ee f da, ey, and deveen
dage w S Afa and e Lne
ne f Afa. In een yea, e S
Afa ave been a n a bade faewk f
aea ean w Inda, a eadng e n
8 Reen an n ee nde e Bazan-fndeddeveen f ean an n Bkn Fa, Ma, andCad, and a aaea an n Mzabqe. “Afa-Baz: Seadng Infene,” Africa Research Bulletin,Jn. 6-J. 5, 9.
Rising Powers
4
The large new
finds along Brazil’s
long coastline will
likely place the
country among
the leading world
producers of oil
and gas over the
next decade.
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim9
e Gba S.9
A eany, a ng Bazw aqe new n, and ea e e
dff e, n exena y. An Aan
deny ay ffe ne way f enng a ea
e f ee eng dene and nee.
Te S Afan ae agaby e ab an
en an a a e. A e e, a
been ab e genea ndan f deay
and aby n -aaed S Afa. Te
exae f Zbabwe ffe a aay ende
f wa d ave aened f e ny’
we f and e e f enanad been anded dffeeny. Te eene f
en enn nde e ny, exaebaed
by gan f e egn, angde yad
ea an ey, ndee e ae
f e aenge—and e aen.
S Afa’ een y and eave ey
gve e ny ndeabe weg and ege
w Afan negb. N ngy,
Pea’ exena y a fed eavy
n ndang and exendng e ny’
n n egna affa, g SADC (Te
S Afan Deveen Cny) ande ean.
9 See C Aden and Ma Ann Vea, “Te NewDay f e S: S Afa, Baz, Inda andTaea,” Third World Quarterly, V. 6, N. 7, 5.
A n Baz, ee a ng S Afannee n aeng a en deny, angde
Inda, a an aenave e eabed Ween
de and e eay-dven av f
Cna. In gega e, aea
a fabe n f a ny w b
Aan and Indan Oean van, and ng
a e b ae. A e ae e, a
e nfden S Afa w ave en
and -ey nee (e.g., ae
ey) a ay ny be eed g e
ean w Wangn and Be.
Gwng Afan wane ab e anf a e evave Cnee e n e nnen
ay ay a e n e evva f Aan e a
a neweg and a aeg edge. I a
w eang a bean veen n We
and Sen Afa benefed exenvey f
e av f a eavey n Aan a n
e 97’ and 98’—Cba. F S Afa’
den a ee, and e n We Afa,
e Aan nnen dee, dvee, and
ey nked e exeene f a ange.
Tanang egay n a den aen f
wde Aan deny and ean key ve aengng.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts10
Oe a n e Aan ae ay a eek enane e ey and ey, a we a
e aeg weg, by eaeng e Aan
deny and anaan nnen. In e
ae, ay be dne a a een an
aenave e egna and a dene.
Tee e ena f n Mex, a
ny w ngandng e n Ee and, f
e, w e Uned Sae and Canada. T
d aae e Mexan ea n Paf
R deny ve e a deade. Te ne f
Fanne and Lne We Afa w fae
a e n baanng e e negb,adna Eean ane, N Aea, and
a ng Baz—n enn an eve e ave
Cna and Inda. Te de, Aan van
ay aqe new vae agan a bakd f
angng en ndn and dvee ey
aenge. Te aeg envnen n e
Aan neangy -a, and e ea
f new geee n exena y d be e
de f e day f any ne.
M a eadng exae f ea f
new geee and e eaen f edene. Raba a ed a n f ea
ege and egay n e M wd,
angde Aab, Bebe, and Medeanean
dene. Te ny a e Ee,
eeay Fane, San, and Pga, and a been
ang e eadng Aean and EU ane n
N Afa and e Mdde Ea. Ove e a
few yea, e Man gvenen and eadng
Man nn ave ved eae e
ny’ Aan deny. Me eey, Raba
a g a wde Aan engageen a
nde We Afan negb, Baz, Ee,and N Aea. In en e, e
aegy ake an f e fa a Baz a
bee ne f M’ eadng ex ake,
nay f ae. A Baz eege a a
gnfan enegy de, key fe
enfe baea e.
In a and ey e, M a aake n a dvee e f aeg ane
baane egna negb, anage annana
k eanang f e , and benef f
eabed Eaan ey e. In
e aa e, Caabana a bee a
eadng an n f a ave and f
Afa a a we. Te Tange-Med nane
an geay faae an beween e
Medeanean and e Aan ban, n
and , eeay f nked e en
f e ed an-Mageb gway. Te
neea and y debae ab e newAan, w a ng en denn, wa
gged a a aj nfeene ed a Ska
n e Man Aan a n May 9. Te
gaeng wa ny -nnena n degn
and aan, and ebea f a gwng
aenn deny, gegay, and “vaabe
geee” n exena y ang e ed
we f e Aan ae.
Mex, , w ave e ake egadng
e exena enan f e ny. F a
e ng f e N Aean FeeTade Ageeen (NAFTA), N Aea
ean a a ane, and n an na
enan f Mex. Dee a f vey
ea a aenge, e Mexan eny
a nned gw a a gnfan ae, and
w eady an gw, Mex key
bee a e an nenana a
n wn g ve e nex deade. In een
yea, Mex a deved aa aenn
a and en ane n e Paf.
Inean w e negbng “ae” f
Cafna a been a key fae f aegy.B Mex a a ngandng Aan
nnen and nee, ndng e
See “Te Ska Pea,” ed n e an f e fF f an Aan T-Cnnena Inave, Ska(M), May 3, 9.
New Geometries
5
The strategic
environment in
the south Atlantic
is increasingly
multi-polar, and
the search for
new geometries
in external policy
could be the order
of the day for
many countries.
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim11
and neay ea nk San. Te exen a Mex bee a e nen
aye n e nenana ene, e ny ay
aqe a nge ake n Aan deny and
anaan aege. Angde Baz, Agenna,
and e w eng egna nee,
engageen n e Aan, w be enaged e exen a Eaan nn an ffe
a eevan and e baaned agenda. Anweng
e qen f “wa n f ” w be a e
nen f way, wde Aan ane.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts12
Beynd qen f deny and gegay, eeegene f a wde Aan w be dven
by a angng fnna agenda, -ng
e ey aaed w deveen n e
e af f e Aan ae. Te a deade
ave een a eady en f a, ey,
and en e neay naned wn
adna egna bndae. I e and e
ef d aby and ey n naw
Eean, Mdde Eaen, Afan, Aan
e. M f e key aenge ae n j
annana b anegna n aae. Many
a a adna nena and exenay ne. Mgan and ea ae exea f
e w a ng “ne-e” aae, b
e n d f a wde aay f nen, f
eenan y ne-e.
T eay e n e Aan ae, n
and . Se f e nen
nen n anegna, ne-e
agenda ae nenaed n e en ban
f e Aan, and w eqe wde Aan
aege n ene.
We Afa and Baz ae a e ene f ef e key ange n e enegy ey ene.
Ngea and Anga ave eeged a an
and ga de, and e ene Gf f Gnea
egn, ndng ee ne ae
de a Caen and Gabn, ae e
ay a age e n e enegy ey a f
e Uned Sae and Ee. Dee be
f aby and ey, ee de k
I a gaef Abaa Lwena f e Paf Cnand e Unvey f Sen Cafna f e e f e
e “ne-e” debe ee aenge nenaeda e eve f e and egn, b w eena nenanankage.
I eaed a Afa d gy 8 een f gba eeve, and nw an f ea een f wddn. Te U.S. gy 5 een f fWe Afa, nay f Ngea, we dn eeay we ed Aean efnng need. Anga aa aj e e Aean ake.
ke a gd be f e n f vew f nveand ne. Tey ae agey deed f
e a dyna dvng dn den
wn OPEC, and naed f aeg k
n e Gf. We ady bne fendy n
e nvenna ene (edabe e f aw,
eaned beaae, e.) ey ae agey
fee f e veegny-dven nan n e
ave f nenana ane n n
Venezea, Agea, and eewee. Even a
ae a Sa Te and Pne d e
ena f gnfan ffe dn,
e aj nenana ake.
Te e f Baz a a gba enegy aye w a
be anfave. Te een dvee
n Baz’ ffe wae ae e ny’
ven eeve a and 4 bn bae, and
any exe egad new fnd a key. A ee
ee ae deveed (a dee wae, engy-
nenve ndeakng by Peba and a de
f nenana ane), ey d Baz
ang e en gba enegy de, n
a a w Ngea and Venezea.3 Baz a
and bee a aj de f ga and agwng exe f efned ee d.
New qefed naa ga (LNG) ex f
Baz and eewee and e Aan ban w
nbe e geve “dzan” f
ga ade—a key end ang e gba enegy
e—and gve Aan ane an even geae
ake n ae ey a a nen f
enegy ey. Offe and ga exan
ndeway n e wae ndng e
Fakand Iand (and ng new da
fn beween Ban and Agenna). Taken
gee, ee deveen ae key akee wde Aan e ena Eean and
3 F a dn f e a f enegy fnd n Baz’nenana n and e ae f e Bazan e,ee Jan de On, “Baz’ Bg Men,” Foreign Affairs,Nv./De. 8.
The New Functional Agenda
6
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim13
N Aean enegy nee. Mdde Eaenand Ran enegy dn nkey be
ddged f n f ay n e
nea e, b ve e nex deade, e
Aan (angde ae and ga dn
n e Uned Sae and Canada) ay ffe ea
en Eaa a a ene f gavy f
enegy ey.
Te Aan f e T f Cane w
ave dnve ey dyna, and ffe
ea aenge f Eaan ey
ane. Fnaey, and nke e Aa-Pafegn e Mdde Ea, e Aan
ak anang e fan eaenng
gba aby. Fn abnd, f bed
U.S. ean w Cba and Venezea, e
ee ky ean ang negb n
Cena and S Aea. A e Aan,
e Ween Saaa de a bedeved ean
beween M and Agea. F e a,
weve, ae--ae nf ave n been a
key feae f e aeg envnen n e
wde Aan ne e end f e Fakand Wa.
T ak f nvenna nf a vefeae, f e, b a a ean a degee
f agnazan n aeg e. Tee ave
been few nenve e wde da and
ey aangeen, and e “aee”
adde e f b-ae and nn-adna
ey aenge affeng e en ban and
ae aae.
Te S Aan a agey fee f e nea
and e fean dyna dvng ey
een and e n e eng. Indeed,
e egn nan ee ne—S Afa,Baz, and Agenna—a ed a da-
e nea ga. In ena e, ee
ne w ean nea-nea we. T
d ake n new eanng agan a bakd
f evved nee n nea we wdwde,
and e ena f new nea aed ae
eegng n e egn. I nkey a Baz wd e g nea a a f
dve f geae aeg weg n e yea
aead, b fean dyna eewee d
nfene a. F e en, weve,
e ne f e S Aan a a zne fee f
nea wean ean a defnng aae
f ey day a e egn.
Ode e aena f nvenna nf and
en, ey be abnd. Many
f ee affe nena aby, b ave wde
an f Aan nee. Te Cabbeanand Nwe Afa ave been key vene f
age ae gan, b enay and
ay dven. F San, n aa, e e
f Maana and e Ween Saaa e
Canay Iand a been a aj nen, and a key
f f een EU veane and nedn
eff. Sey n N Afa a affeed
by ee gan fw f We Afa
Ee. N-S ean n b de
f e Aan w be a key e f e ena
f anagng an by n a need
ba. M e d be dne ndeandand e e en eaned f gan y
exeene n b de f e Aan.4
Te wde Aan a ng been a f f dg
affkng and nedn, w ae a
S and Cena Aea and e Cabbean,
and e Sa f Gbaa a key e n a gba
aenge, w e e fnane, an
affkng, and gba ea. Reen end ave
ngy enfed e e f e Aan ye
n e dg ade, w We Afa eegng a
a nen anen n f dg enf Aa and Lan Aea. T e exen a
new ey ane ae deveed and e
4 See Ian O. Lee, “Anxee w Bde: Te UnedSae, Ee, and Te Sen Negb,” International Spectator , Ma 5.
Unlike the Asia-
Pacific region
or the Middle
East, the south
Atlantic lacks
animating crises
or flashpoints
threatening globa
stability.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts14
Aan ban, affkng n a denn wkey be a nea e f e agenda. Te aff
n g a w be ane eaed e gven e
e f e a a ade n feng naby
n b de f e Aan , abve a n
We Afa. F a f e Aan akede,
akng ee k anaen, and avdng
e eegene f zne f a, w be gdng
aeg nen.
Tea f knd affe e ey f
ndvda and egna ae, f and fe.
B e neang av f ganzed enewk f a knd and e Aan
a e e ye k f ey. One key
exae e eene f ay ageng e
ffe ndy n e Gf f Gnea. Pay
a a de be ang e Aan a
f Cena Aea and Baz. Ane eev
f k nen evvng e newk,
wee na-e n Lan Aea,
Ia exe n We Afa. Te ey
ea a ave been a e ene f anaan
aegy ne 9/ d n j eanae f an a
eng f e Mageb S Aa. Tewde Aan vey a f evvng
eqan. Te ex f k eanang f
We Afa a been ne f e key dve f
Aean aeg aenn Afa a a we,
ndng e evn f AFRICOM and a
ee f enaned ay ean ave
a e Sae and eewee. In Jne 6, e
NATO Rene Fe ed a aj jn exee
(Seadfa Jaga) n Cae Vede, and veane
and ey n e wae ff We Afa
a eadng f f NATO’ Jn Cand
eadqae n Lbn. Te Aan and f Cae Vede, Madea, and e Aze (ndng
e U.S. abae a Laje) an be aay ef
vene f new nana eff adde e
ex f nnvenna ey k affeng
e Aan f e T f Cane.
In e bade ene, e wde Aan a eene f evved nee n ae ey, f
new be wae nava aan n Lan Aea,
an-ay and an-ggng ean, e
n f fee and ne-e n aa
wae, and ey. Te ae ey
nen f N Aan we ae key be
fed wad a ndeabe exen n e
yea aead. Rng we a Baz and S
Afa w ee ae ey a a key aea f
av and ean. And ae ae, any
akng e aay ae e veegny ve
ea and a ae, w eqe e aane f e aabe egna and exa-egna a
ndeake ba veane and a ak.
A f key ave a ng envnena
denn. A f dn f e an f
ae ange n g ade and n d ean
beynd e e f ae. B ee an be
e db a f e y debae ab
ae ange and ean y ve e nex
deade w ay ef n e Aan wd,
and eeay n e Aan. Tee a ng
adn f nana gvenane and eean e Ana, and ne a S Afa
and Agenna w ave a de ake n e fe
f ee aangeen. Tey ae a key ave
e wn ex debae n ae y. Hee,
e aed a-eny eeve w
Baz, Inda, and e eadng a n
e Gba S ay be n enn w e
ng ake n envnena anageen n
e wn negbd.
Ove e ng e, ae ange d a
eae e geen f e Aan.Te enng f an e-fee, ay e-fee
nen e beween Aa and Eean
ake d ange ng aen
fe , edng eane n eSez Cana
and e aae e Medeanean. In a vey
dffeen ene, e nge Cae e f e Gf
The increasing
activism of
organized crime
networks of all
kinds around the
Atlantic south
also poses more
systemic risks for
security.
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim15
e Aan aeady enjyng a evvaa a e f ay n e Indan Oean and e
Red Sea, and e nbe f vee age
an e Sez Cana.
Fnay, e fe f gba ade and deveen
y debae w be a e fe f any
Aan ee, and ve vea. Hee,
Baz key be e key aye. T e exen
a Baz aqe a nge ake n Aan
ane w Ee and e Uned Sae,
d ean a ge degee f nvegene n
adnay dvegen aae agabde, envnena and ab andad,
and a ange f adjen and ef qen.
Aenavey, Baz and S Afa ay fa e exy en aa, w b
ne adng a e aeve ane w
negb n b de f e Aan n defene
f deveng ny eeve. A a ean
n, Baz ay bee a e nen
vde f deveen aane n wn g.
Ceany, Baz’ n a a key adng ane
and nve w exe a ng nfene n e
deveen and ey f ae ne n
b de f e Aan. In , a n e aea,
e ea f S Aan agnazan ay be
dawng a e.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts16
Wa e anaan neny f geaeaeg aenn e en Aan,
and ea f a new wde Aan aegy?
W w ead e debae and w w ave e
geae ake n e e? On e Eean
de, Pga and San ave been ave
n ng a Aan agenda f ea
a and ea ean. San gy
eeve a ea van n San-eakng
Lan Aea, and a ng been a eade n
EU y wad e egn. San en
e e aea ae aay we eabed,
and vbe n e bankng, enegy, andeenan e.
In ee, Pga “ne abve weg.”
Pgee-eakng an ae nenaed
and e Aan ban, and da, a,
and ea e Baz, Anga, and Cae
Vede ean vg. Meve, vey
a w-way ee. Mgan f ee
a f e fe Pgee ee a ade
Pga ang e faby -
a ne n Ee. Bazan nveen
a ng been a feae n e Pgee ene,and Angan nveen ang aea
n bankng, ea eae, and e e. Me
bady, nee n e Aan a a aeg
enan a away been vey n Pga,
even a e ny a been neangy
“Eeanzed” n y e. Pgee
eade k Be, f e, b fen w
a e nd Wangn and e wde N
Aean neny. Tee a ng an
denn engageen, n ea beae f
e age Pgee ny n N Aea.
T Pgee daa a an an dand en Aan denn, , a any
Pgee gan N Aea (and Baz)
e f e Aze Cae Vede. Say,
any Pgee ave fay e Anga
e ae n Afa. Tee nnen nne
exe a eanngf nfene n Lbn’ fegny een, and ee an a be fe n
Pga’ NATO and EU e.
Pga, and a ee exen, San, w be
naa eade w egad Eean nee
n wde Aan e and nave. B e
nee d be e wdey aed. Te gwng
e f Baz a an en ane f Ee
key de a age neny,
bdng n a ngandng aen f Eean
nveen n Lan Aea and Afa. Swed
f ave a ng y f nveen n Baz,and e Swed gvenen wa ang e
f ede aff n Bazan ag-d.
In We Afa, Fane a ng been a aj
akede, w an ave a and defene
engageen angde en e. In Ngea
and S Afa, e B nnen ean
ng. Angde e Uned Sae, Ban and
Fane ae aabe f jeng gnfan ay
we n e Aan f e eqa. T e
exen a We Afa and Baz age n
enegy ey e, Ee a a we key
aqe an neaed ake n deveen n eAan . Mveen wad e ey
ean w Aan ane g
NATO key ve e nvea. F
Geany, Pand, and e ne neangy
fed n adna n and nfned
bne n e ea and e aenge f a e
aeve Ra, e e f a aj new
ea e key be een a a
aeg dan.
On e N Aean de, nee n e
Aan and ndean f wdeAan aege key be dven by evea
fa. Tee w be a naa nee n Baz
and S Afa a eegng ake ang
dvee ea a. Baz, n aa,
ay be een a a ge-gw ny n a
ed—by aed—f w gw n
Southern Exposures, Southern
Interests7
Movement toward
closer security
cooperation with
south Atlantic
partners through
NATO is likely
to prove more
controversial.
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Southr Atlticism
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e deveed ene. Saeg neneae key ee e Afan and S Aean
ne f e S Aan a key e f
e beav f Cna (and Inda?) a gba
e, and ea a a eae f gea
en. A a gba we, e Uned Sae
w nne ay e aenn ey
k eanang f e Aan ban, and
f ee ae key be fnd f e T
f Cane, ndng e and nenana
e. F, and eng, eeen f
e Aean fegn y ee nened w
envgang anaan ean ay aqean nee n eang e dea f Aan
ebae a wde e f ne and e.
Te nn f a wde Aan d a be
a ng vee f deveng nge e
S Aea, ng a bea vene n
Aean y.
Tee w be a ng egna denn e
Aean nee n kng and e
Aan ban. T aeady an nnveadea ang a and en eade n
Ma. Cay, gay, and even ay,
Fda a bee e gaeway f nean
w Lan Aea, and eeay e e f
Aan S Aea. Mgan and ade nk
ae gvng e ene eaen Uned Sae a
e nned ake n deveen and
e Cabbean and Lan Aea, ndng Baz.
Tee nee an ake eeve fe a e eve
f e nana fegn y debae, ang e ne
f e Cafnan ake n Mex, ag
ady nevabe, a e ngandng fae deve a eenve aegy wad Mex
gge. Maj nane n e U.S. Aan
Ca ae naa akede n wde Aan
ean, a e P f L Angee a
aj akede n Aa-Paf ade. La and
egna nee f knd ay we ay a key
e n e wde Aan debae, eeay n e
abene f anang aeg nen a e eve
f g .
Culturally,
logistically, and
even politically,
Florida has
become the
gateway for
interaction with
Latin America,
and especially th
cities of Atlantic
South America.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts18
Lkng aead, w a en yea e zn, be envn a ange f ena f e
wde Aan ae, w vayng an f
e anaan nee f e Uned Sae and
Ee. Se f ee aenave “fe” ay
be aed by e eanang f Wangn
Be. Oe w be dven by egna and
nana dyna ve w e adna
Aan we ay ave e eveage. Ove e
nex deade, e abe aenave nde:
Comprehensive Atlanticism. In ena,
e nee f adna and eegng weand e Aan ban, n and , agn
n way a faae e deveen f wde
Aan dene and aege. T ena
wd be enaged by U.S.-EU ageeen n
e dea a evved anaan ane
w benef f e gega edefnn.
Ideay, d nde ave e by NATO
and e EU enane e w key a and
e S Aan. Pga, San, and Fane
d dve ee nave a e a eve.
An Aean en e e
engageen w Lan Aea d be a n Aan d, and d gve fe
e eenve Aan. Abve a,
ena ee a nvegene f nee
beween n and n key e affeng
Aan ey and ey, f ade
and envnen, deveen and ey.
Advae wd age a a wde Aan
deny ffe ne a Baz and S
Afa a e aenave ey egna
and en van. Te e f a ng
Cna, w a gwng eene and e Aan
ban, d ndean f eenveAan a a ne e eeved wanng f
Eean and N Aean nfene.
T ena w fae e a
eden, n ea e need adae
e Aan’ wn ng we n nnay
eanngf way, f UN Sey Cnef new NATO ane nave. Me
ee, b w ndeng, e ena
f a new ey aee f e Aan
a a we, ea a SATO (S Aan
Teay Oganzan) n w Ee and N
Aea wd be ebe ang w e.
A a e wen NATO eang f ne
and ee ee en en,
ad agne a nen n fav f a
gnfan new gega exann f knd.5
A a and ed-zed ne f e
T f Cane fae a ange f dff an-nana ey be, ey ay we eek e
aeg eaane f e e NATO
f ebe; a f f bwed ey n
egn wee ey aee weak nn-
exen. Ee, , d be a e gnfan
ey ane f Lan Aean ne way
f Aean we.6 Lage, veegny n
we a Baz S Afa—eey
e a f geae ena e e aane—
ay be e ean new e f knd.
Alignment with the Global South. In ena,e aj a n e S Aan f
agnen w aenave, nn-Ween a,
ndng Inda. Te nfyng deny n ae
ny a f e deveng S. Baz
and S Afa ave aeady aded f
e vabay and aeg k aaed
w aa, e f bwed f
5 Te nn f a gba NATO, en ke-ndeddeae de e adna Eean and NAan ae a been wdey debaed. F an anay n ven, ee Iv Daade and Jae Gdgee, “Gba NATO,”
Foreign Affairs, V. 85, N. 5, Se./O.6. Te agenee e eave n day’ ae f ae nAfganan, nfn ve e fe e f e aane, andgba dffeene de e ey ea, n ade, aeand e ae.
6 See Afed G. A. Vaada, “Neee e Dffe d’neCean de See e Defene ene ’Ee e ’AeqeLane,” Occasional Paper , N. 73 (Pa: Eean UnnIne f Sey Sde, Nv. 8).
Some Alternative Scenarios
8
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim19
e nn-agned veen. Venezea a beena eadng nen f wdvew, ndng
e van f en, a, and ey
e w Ra and Ian. Agenna a a
fed w an-Ween , a ea n e
en aena.
I nkey a e eadng a n e
Aan w ad a e f e knd ed
by Hg Cavez. B a n wad e den
and an-Ween e n Baz
S Afa ann be ded eney. New
en e and a en nabe d enage , ag e e key
deveen n ae wd be a en
nwad-kng, nana e. Unde ee
ndn, Baz and S Afa—va ae
n e f e nn f wde Aan
deny and aegy—wd key n any
fa new a f S-S ean
and nn bdng. Idega efeene,
and ea e n aae ae
and e e, d fav e deveen f
a bade denfan w e Gba S
ang key Aan ae. B ay bead anae n a need aegy.
Dee e ange bg by gbazan and
e gwng e f Cna and Inda n Afa and
S Aea, ne a Baz, Agenna,
and S Afa, angde ae a n e
egn, k Ee and N Aea a
key nenana ane. Te ng-e ba f
y nvegene beween, f exae, Mex
Agenna and Inda, weak. In ene,
gegay and y ae.
Atlantic Regionalism.A e key ena,ndeed ne a aeady ex n va f,
wd ee key a and e Aan ban
f e T f Cane ang egna
eade and ean w negb. T
ay ay n be nked a wde ene f
Aan deny nvegene f nee w
adna Aan a. Exae ang eene nde e S Afan Deveen
Cny (SADC) and Me n S
Aea. NAFTA, , d be ndeed a
gng f knd, ag aey debed a
an Aan nave per se.
Beynd fa egna e, e efeene
f egna deey bedded n e exena
y efeene f an Aan a.
Mex a eay ed f a N Aean
deny, and ee w Baz, Agenna,
and Venezea f eade n Lan Aea.Agaby, Baz nne eae we
and ena agey n e f nfene n S
Aea. On e Afan nnen, M a
gven y egna negan n dffeen
ee; kng ea and negb n e
Mageb, and kng a e Medeanean
Eean ane (nay, M a
a a ng nee n an Aan deny). A n
e ena, a n wad nana and
veegny-n e an wk agan
Aan egna. T endeny, n n, an be
gy deenden n gba en ndn.Regna fn an ede ean n
aa e, b SADC and Me ffe
gd exae f w egna negan an be
enaged n an neena fan.7
A vaan f ena wd ee e fe
evn f exng, ed eave
nave a e S Aan, ndng
e addeng ef fnna aenge.
Faewk f knd wee eabed n
966 n e f f e S Aan Mae
Aea Cdnan, and n 986 w e “Znef Peae and Cean n e S Aan.”
Dn n e ae ave addeed e
7 See Afed Vaada, Regional Integration: Lessons from Latin America (Wangn, DC: Te Gean Maa Fnd f eUned Sae, Feb. )
As in other
scenarios, a
turn toward
nationalistic
and sovereignty-
conscious
policies can work
against Atlantic
regionalism.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts20
aenge aaed w e Bazan-Ngean-S Afan dg-affkng nex.8 S
Afa and Baz ave been e key a n ee
f, addeng e f de-neazan
and envnena and ae dnan,
ea and “ee ee” na.
8 Geg M, “S Afan-Lan Aean MaeCean: Twad a S Aan RIM Cny?,”Diplomats and Defenders Mnga N. 9, Jannebg,Feb. 997.
Baz, Ugay, and Agenna ave eaedn ATLASUR (Aan S) ganze jn
nava exee, e n S Afan wae. Te
ngandng nana aa eea
and gvenane n e Ana ffe ane key
exae. Oe an be fnd n e Cabbean. In
a ene, e aj Eaan nn, even
NATO, fa n aegy. Aan egna
an be egaded a e defa e n b de
f e eqa.
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim21
Takng n an f ee aenave ena,e nex deade key ee e exene
f e Aan, w vayng dene and
ane n ay. A ene f df wn adna
anaan ane and nn a
aeady gven e a ea f new ne and
new aege. I a been fanabe n e
qae age a w e e f Aa and
e gbazan f e nenana agenda e
Aan n nge a aay ef fae f
ganzng aegy, eeay f e Uned Sae.
Te ee weg f en and ey ean
a e N Aan age agan vew.Me neeng f e vanage n f
anay, e dea a anaan ean ave
been a too narrowly. Lage ena ane n
e Aan, e eey, f e
T f Cane, ave y been ef f e
wde gea debae. Inenana nve
and enegy ea ay f n Baz and We
Afa, b e aeg a n b de f e
Aan a ye be nveed. A e ae e,
e yake and nn aned e
vae f e e w We and S Afa,
and S Aea, aey ae ee ean nan Aan fae. Te debae ve e fe f
anaan ean nne f a
exvey n e N Aan ax. New we
and new aenge and ne eanang
f e ae agey ff e NATO U.S.-
EU agenda. A a e, anaan ean
nne “fe n ny af ynde.” T
e exen a e e f Cna, and e BRIC
(Baz, Ra, Inda, and Cna) ne a a
b, ae qen ab e fe f We,
ay be even e ef exand e defnn
f Aan ane.
T w be eeay an n e f defnng e fe f Aean and Eean
ean w Baz and S Afa. B w
a be an n ang e fe f ean
w Agenna, Mex, e enegy dng
ae f We Afa, and ay a ae
ke M. A e ng we f e S
Aan deve new fegn y dene and
enan, and a ae ne eek new
geee n e nenana engageen, e
Aan deny and Aan nn d
be fn and ene. W e nabe exen,
e n e Afan and Lan Aean den fegn y f e eny a ade
Aan e fa n f deny and aegy.
Te abene f nee n Aan a an
anang dea a kng n e a
n e n.
Te nn a anaan ean ave
ndeabe naed enegy n e d
nf en debae ab w envgae
ean beween N Aea and Ee, a
we a N-S ean. If e Uned Sae
and Ee fa engage e n Aane, ee a vey ea k a key ane
w f aenave dene. Tee ae key
be faed n e f e gba , ey
nana eeve. Nee e key
e e ean w Wangn
Be n n aenge. Te e wd
be a fagened Aan ae n w a
ne f aban w be .
Atlanticism is a Moveable Feast
9
If the United
States and Europ
fail to engage the
south in Atlantic
terms, there is a
very real risk tha
key partners will
opt for alternativ
identities.
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Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts22
Ideay, e nex deade w ee e eegenef a eenve Aan n w dvee
a e Aan deny f. In eay,
nkey, n ea beae ae and
e ban ave e dene and nee—
ndng e nnena negbd—a
ae b wde and nawe an e Aan
fae. B e Aan an be gven geae
nene a a fa n f aegy and y,
eeay wee exena e ae n fx.
F, yake n b de f e Aan
need enk e ena a wen debange fe f anaan ean. Te eevan
ae de n a e T f Cane,
and f e fe vg and nen f
anaan ean w deve f aenge
and ne n e Aan, bady
defned. A anay gge, e f e
nen nen ve e nex deade,
f enegy an ey, f ade and
deveen e envnen, w ave e
ene f gavy n e , ae an e
n. Dega and a end w be
addna dve f a anaan fe eey baaned beween n and . T
e exen a ng we n e Aa-Paf
egn eaen e n f Ee and N
Aea ve e nex deade—an en qen—
negang e new, eegng we n e
Aan ae w be a naa ene.
Send, a a e f ne, ndng Pga,
San, and M, w ave a aave
advanage n nkng g and eenng
a wde Aan aegy. By ve f y,
angage and gegay, ee ne—angw Baz—an ay a eadng e n enagng
adna N Aan a and nn
k wad. Tee ne ae a e
ga nvene f ffa y annng
dn n e ng a adna
neea and beaa ne, b eevan
e wde Aan ae. T anag ee ayed by Fane and en Eean ae
n E-Medeanean aegy, by Geany n
y wad e ea.
Td, a NATO addee eng deand
f gba engageen, n e ne and, and
ee ef n e Eean ey
bne, n e e, y f e “e af”
f e Aan ae d be n e agenda.
T n neeay an agen f fa
enageen n e Aan eewee.
B NATO an and d nde deeenng dage and ean f e T
f Cane. M and Maana ae aeady
a f e g e ebe n
NATO’ Medeanean Dage. Te dage
d be a de f ea and aa
ey ean n e Aan. Indeed,
g ve e effeve n e abene f e
Aab-Iae enn a ave aged ey
ean n e Medeanean. Te ena
agenda f aban age, f an-ay
ean n e Gf f Gnea ae
veane, ea and ee, and envnenaey n g e Aan.
Te Nvebe Lbn NATO S w
be an exeen and gy yb ny
a a e debae ab aane aegy f e
Aan .
F, a wde nn f Aan an benef
f dedaed ene f anay and debae,
beynd e adna N Aean and
Eean vene. M’ Ska Inave
ne exae. I a be agne e
ffa v ey eff f knd baed nCae Vede e Aze. In eana e,
ee and ae a we aed f e nd f
new nana ae ean, ndng
new e f Laje a bae n e Aze. Ove
e nge e, new eff de adna
ey nn ay be neeay engage
Implications for Strategy and
Policy10
A small set
of countries,
including Portugal,
Spain, and
Morocco, will have
a comparative
advantage in
thinking through
and implementing
a wider Atlantic
strategy.
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Southr Atlticism
Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim23
ena Aan ane w e n neen ean w NATO—Venezea, Agenna,
by even Cba.
Fnay, e f a wde Aan, w
e Aan dene and a age e f
ane and e a ng-e aeg
bjeve. Me ab vaan w eqe
e anfan f bea ean,
ndng e Aean ean w
Venezea and Cba. T w n be eay,and ay n aen a a. In e nea e,
weve, w be an a e debae
and begn e e f engagng a ange f key
a, ndng Baz and S Afa, we
exena e ae n fxed, and wee an Aan
deny an ee egaey w nawe
egna abn and e dega f e
Gba S.
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