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Transcript of GMF 2010 results to Press V12 FINAL - SpeedNews · PDF file GMF highlights GMF 2010 key...

  • Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010 – 20292010 2029

    Toulouse, December 13th,

    John Leahyy Chief Operating Officer

    Customers

  • GMF highlights

    GMF 2010 key numbers and 20-year change

    World fleet forecast 2009 2029 % changeWorld fleet forecast 2009 2029 % change

    RPK (trillion) 4.76 12.03 153%

    Passenger aircraft 14 240 29 050 104%Passenger aircraft 14,240 29,050 104%

    New passenger aircraft deliveries - 24,980 -

    D di t d f i ht 1 550 3 350 116%Dedicated freighters 1,550 3,350 +116%

    New freighter aircraft deliveries - 870 -

    Market value of $3 2 trillion

    Total new aircraft deliveries 25,850

    Market value of $3.2 trillion

    Source: Airbus GMF 2010

  • Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

    5 0

    World annual traffic

    Gulf CrisisOil Crisis Asian Crisis

    WTC AttackOil Crisis SARS

    Financial Crisis

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    +45%*

    RPK (trillion)

    2 5

    3.0

    3.5

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    0.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010E

    Source: ICAO, Airbus * since 2000

  • GDP and passenger traffic development

    8% November Passenger

    World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)

    4%

    6%

    Passenger traffic up 7.8%

    0%

    2%

    R l & f t GDP

    -4%

    -2%

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Real & forecast GDP

    Traffic ASKs

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    P t ffi i i li ith GDP

    2007 2008 2009 2010

    Passenger traffic recovering in-line with GDP

    Source: IHS Global Insight (November 2010 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

  • Still a two-speed World

    Real GDP growth (%)

    History Forecast 8%

    Emerging economies*6%

    Mature economies

    2%

    4%

    economies

    2%

    0%

    -4%

    -2%

    1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Source: IHS Global Insight (November 2010), Airbus * 54 emerging economies

    This is mainly driven by the potential to travel in certain regions

  • All regions are currently growing

    16%

    Traffic up

    13.7%

    Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year)

    4%

    8%

    12%

    Traffic up

    5.4%

    -4%

    0%

    4%

    United States

    5.4% 4.9%

    -12%

    -8%

    J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

    Western Europe Emerging Economies*

    J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

    2007 2008 2009 2010

    E i i l di th Emerging economies are leading the way

    Source: OAG (ASKs), * 54 emerging economies, Airbus

  • Yields recovering in all regions

    150

    Relative yield evolution (base year 2000)

    %

    130

    140 North America Europe Asia-Pacific

    100

    110

    120

    80

    90

    100

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 2010

    Q2 2010

    Q3 2010

    Recovery driven by premium traffic Gl b l i ld h i d +0 8% Global yields have increased +0.8% pa

    Source: ATA, AEA, AAPA and airlines data for 2010

  • 5.8 billion people will increasingly want to travel by air

    China Yearly RPK growth 2009 -2029

    India Middle East Asia*

    5.8 billion

    2009 -2029

    Asia Africa CIS L i A i

    billion people 2009

    Latin America Eastern Europe

    W t EWestern Europe North America Japan Australasia

    1.0 billion people 2009

    Australasia

    * Asia excludes India, China and Japan

  • Impressive airline industry expansion in emerging countries

    Passenger aircraft over 100 seats operated by airlines

    Jan 2000 Dec 2010

    Fl t i i 453 1386 ×3 China Mainland

    Fleet in service 453 1386

    Backlog 47 565

    ×3

    ×12

    India Fleet in service 112 322 × 3

    India Backlog 12 280 × 23

    Source: Ascend

  • Growing A380 network especially in Asia-Pacific 40 A380s flying 27 routes to 20 destinations

    24 000 fli ht d 200 000 fli ht h24,000 revenue flights and over 200,000 flight hours

    Toronto

    London

    BeijingZurich

    Manchester Montreal Paris

    Frankfurt

    Toronto

    Seoul

    Jeddah Bangkok

    Dubai

    Washington New York Tokyo

    Hong Kong

    Los Angeles

    Qantas

    Bangkok

    Emirates Singapore Airlines

    Air France

    Singapore

    Additional airline-announced routes for 2011 shown dotted Auckland

    Johannesburg Lufthansa

    Sydney

    Melbourne

    Over 9 million passengers have enjoyed the A380 experience in the first three years

  • Airlines returning to profitability

    6 3%

    Airline industry EBIT margins (% of revenues)

    5.5% 5.1%

    3.4% 4.0%

    2.9%

    6.3%

    3.8% North America

    Europe

    1.2% 0.1%

    -0.1%

    0.9% 0.0%

    Asia-Pacific

    -1.8% -2.2%

    -4.7%

    EBIT A i i li f i ll

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    EBIT: Asian airlines performing well

    Source: ICAO history / IATA forecast (September 2010)

  • Long term fundamentals will lead to growth

    ICAO total traffic

    Airbus GMF 2010

    RPK (trillion)

    World annual traffic

    8.0

    10.0 total traffic GMF 2010

    6.0

    Air traffic has doubled every

    15 years

    Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

    2 0

    4.0 20-year

    world annual traffic growth

    0.0

    2.0

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

    4.8%

    Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2010

  • Main drivers for growth

    Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets

    Dynamic growth in emerging marketsDynamic growth in emerging markets

    Continued growth of LCCs, especially in Asia

    Greater and continued market liberalization

    Traffic growth on the existing route network where it is more efficient to add capacity than frequency

  • Asia-Pacific airlines will lead world traffic by 2029

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 % of 2029 world RPK

    2009 and 2029 traffic volume per airline domicile region

    % of 2009 world RPK

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe

    2009 traffic 2029 traffic 33%

    25%

    27%

    28%

    +5.8%

    +4.1%

    North America

    Middle East

    20-year world annual traffic growth

    20%

    9%

    28%

    6%

    +3.3%

    +6 8%Middle East

    Latin America

    traffic growth 4.8%

    9%

    6%

    6%

    5%

    +6.8%

    +5.5%

    Africa

    CIS RPK (trillion)

    4%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    +5.8%

    +4.7% ( )

    Source: Airbus GMF 2010

  • New aircraft demand will average at 1,300 per year

    20,000 New aircraft deliveries

    20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

    12,000

    16,000 17,870

    8,000

    0

    4,000

    Single-aisle & Small jet Small-twin aisle & Intermediate twin-aisle & Large aircraft & Large

    4,330

    1,910 1,740

    g j freighters Regional freighters Long range freighters

    g g freighters

    69% 17% 7% 7%% units

    40% 26% 16% 18%% value

    Source: Airbus GMF 2010

    Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons)

  • New aircraft demand will average at 1,300 per year

    20,000 New aircraft deliveries

    20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

    12,000

    16,000 GMF 2009 GMF 2010

    16,980 17,870

    8,000

    0

    4,000

    Single-aisle & Small jet Small-twin aisle & Intermediate twin-aisle & Large aircraft & Large

    4,240

    2,010 1,730

    4,330

    1,910 1,740

    g j freighters Regional freighters Long range freighters

    g g freighters

    69% 17% 7% 7%% units

    40% 26% 16% 18%% value

    Source: Airbus GMF 2010

    Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons)

  • 20-year demand for over 25,800 new aircraft

    20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

    17 87017 87017,87017,870 single-aisle aircraft

    6,2406,240 twin-aisle aircraft

    1 7401 740 very large aircraft 69% 17% 7% 7%% units

    40% 26% 16% 18%

    1,7401,740 very large aircraft

    M k t l fM k t l f $3 2 t illi$3 2 t illi

    Source: Airbus GMF 2010

    Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons)

    Market value of Market value of $3.2 trillion$3.2 trillion

  • In the future there will be a need to mitigate oil price risk

    Oil price (Current US$ per bbl)

    140 History Forecast

    100

    120

    0

    60

    80

    20

    40

    0

    19 80

    19 82

    19 84

    19 86

    19 88

    19 90

    19 92

    19 94

    19 96

    19 98

    20 00

    20 02

    20 04

    20 06

    20 08

    20 10

    20 12

    20