Gm2 9.15.2015

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• Thursday, Sept 17• SCG Workshop #2: Industries and Risks, Room: (CBA 4.328)• 11:59PM – SCG Lunch Invitations Released

• Saturday, Sept 19 : SCG Lunch• Sunday, Sept 20 : SCG Interviews• Tuesday, Sept 22: General Meeting #3

• GM: Guest Lecture by Undergraduate Computational Finance• Board and SCG Decisions Released

• Tuesday, Sept 29: General Meeting #4• Special Event: USIT Career Panel

Important Dates

9/15/2015

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General Meeting #29.15.2015University Securities Investment Teamtexasusit.org

9/15/2015

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• General Announcements• Guest Lecture: Introduction to Sports Analytics• Market Update• Portfolio Update• Cliffe Kim

• Pitch: Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) • Arjo Mozumder• Connor Ruddick• Kajal Dayal

Agenda

9/15/2015

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• Thursday, Sept 17• SCG Workshop #2: Industries and Risks, Room: (CBA 4.328)• 11:59PM – SCG Lunch Invitations Released

• Saturday, Sept 19 : SCG Lunch• Sunday, Sept 20 : SCG Interviews• Tuesday, Sept 22

• GM: Guest Lecture by Undergraduate Computational Finance• Board and SCG Decisions Released

• Tuesday, Sept 29• Special Event: USIT Career Panel

Important Dates

9/15/2015

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• First TWO meetings are free!

• Email [email protected] for WSJ log-in information

General Announcements

9/15/2015

mailto:[email protected]

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Ultimate Frisbee Social!

9/15/2015

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Angela Morisette

• BHP/Marketing, Class of 2015• USIT Director of Marketing• Winner of numerous stock pitches/case

competitions• Awards• McCombs Rising Star Award• Barbara Jordan Senior Legacy Award

• Management Consultant at Oliver Wyman

USIT Alumni Coffee Chat• Friday, September 18th • 6:30pm – 7:30pm • Mozart’s Cafe• Sign up at texasusit.org under the

“Events” tab• Limited to 15 members; RSVP soon

9/15/2015

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• USIT Kick Their Assets• IM Basketball and IM Volleyball• Anyone interested?

9/15/2015

USIT IM Sports – A New Hope(?)

BBA Legacy • Student giving campaign • I’m one of the co-chairs • Run by UBC • Committee Application • Red McCombs • https://mccombs.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3KT0sF7fYk8wnPv

BBA Legacy

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Lecture: Intro to Sports AnalyticsTexas Sports Analytics GroupHumza Tariq, Founder

9/15/2015

TriviaThere’s only one athlete to hit an MLB home run and score an NFL

touchdown in the same week. He’s the same athlete who is the only person ever to play in both the World Series and the Super Bowl.

Who is this athlete?

Deion Sanders (Atlanta Braves, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys)

9/15/2015 texasusit.org

Best Spending NBA Teams


The Questions• How much of a team’s win percentage is attributable to their payroll?

• Do higher spenders perform better than lower spenders in the NBA?

• Who are the most (and least) efficient spending organizations in the NBA, and has that changed over time?


Team-Building StrategiesBig Spenders:

Draft Aficionados:

Undervalued Asset Locators:


Free Agents (Summer 2015)• Kevin Love

• LaMarcus Aldridge (Hook ‘em)

• Rajon Rondo

• Marc Gasol


Draft Class (2015)


Methodology• Collected team payrolls and regular season win percentages from

1991 to 2014

• Normalized payroll data to adjust for contract inflation (Hotrod Williams for the Cavaliers)

• Ran a linear regression using all NBA seasons as data points to find a linear relationship between the percentage of games a team wins and their payroll relative to the salary cap


Regression Results


So money is the answer, right?Not so fast...

While there does appear to be some positive relationship between payroll relative to the salary cap and regular season win percentage, the relationship isn’t extremely strong.

Perhaps the relationship was weaker in the ’90s and is now becoming stronger. We test this by looking at the yearly correlation between our two variables.


Some DefinitionsCorrelation Coefficient (Pearson’s R):• Measure of the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two

variables X and Y, giving a value between +1 and −1 inclusive• 1 = Perfectly positive linear relationship• 0 = No linear relationship• -1 = Perfectly negative linear relationship

Coefficient of Determination (R2):• Measures how much of the variability of a factor can be caused or explained

by variations in another factor, giving a value between 0 and 1 inclusive• 0 = Variation in X does not explain any variation in Y• 1 = Variation in X is completely responsible for variation in Y


Back to the Analysis


Best and Worst Spending TeamsWe averaged residuals from our linear regression to quantify how good each team spent their money.

Residual• The difference between the observed outcome and the predicted outcome• Suppose our model predicts how many games a team should win based on

how much money they spend• If our model predicts the Houston Rockets should win 55 games given their

payroll, but they actually win 70, the residual is 15• If the Rockets somehow win only 30 games (which would never happen in

real life), the residual would be -25


Dallas Mavericks


Houston Rockets


Chicago Bulls


Los Angeles Lakers


New York Knicks


San Antonio Spurs


Average Team Residuals (’91-’02)


Average Team Residuals (’03-’14)


Potential Causes and Future Ideas• The Superstar Effect – MJ, LeBron, Kobe

• The Draft Gem Effect – Westbrook, Durant, Harden

• The importance of team chemistry

• Is it even possible to predict how many games a team should win by only using data?


Research Question: NFL RBs?


• 312 rushing attempts• 1,319 rushing yards• 5 TDs• 4.2 YPC

• 2014: Torn ACL, Hip surgery• 2013: 159 tackles• 2 sacks• 4 INTs

LeSean McCoy to the Bills


The Eagles needed Defense• Most tackles in 2013:• Vontaze Burfect – 171• Paul Posluszny – 162• Kiko Alonso – 159

• Eagles tackling stats in 2013:• LB Michael Kendricks – 82• FS Malcolm Jenkins – 76


The Value of NFL Running Backs• We want to analyze this next – how should we go about doing so?

• Analyzing running statistics of past SB winners, but there’s got to be more than that• QBR• Years of Experience• Defense (?)


Winning the Super Bowl


The Questions• What metrics in the regular season are the best indicators of playoff

success?

• Is defense the real key to winning championships?

• Can we develop a reasonably accurate model for the NFL where a one-and-done playoff system leads to great variability?


• Offensive Metrics• Rank in Pts Scored• Rank in Total Yards

• Defensive Metrics• Rank in Pts Scored Against• Rank in Total Yards Allowed

Preliminary Data – All Playoff Teams


Preliminary Data – All Playoff Teams


Playoff Teams and Super Bowl Winners


Super Bowl Winners and Losers


How did this happen?

17 14


What are better metrics of playoff success?


Future Directions• Collect metrics on all variables mentioned and suggested• Run a multivariable regression to see the most promising variables• See how well model could have predicted specific Super Bowls.

Maybe it will explain some of the recent results.• Interested? Email: [email protected]• Want NFL data? Ask me and I will try to give it to you.



Q & A


Group Purpose & Goals


Background• Data Analytics: The science of examining raw data with the purpose

of drawing conclusions about that information. Data analytics are used in many industries to allow companies to make better business decisions and in the sciences to verify or disprove existing models or theories

• Sports teams are realizing the usefulness of collecting and analyzing data to construct championship-worthy teams


Our Lords


Purpose• This organization was established with the intention of discussing

these trends in sports data analysis and doing some analysis on our own

• We provide an open forum for discussion of research, ideas, potential research questions, whatever it may be.

• TSAG = The intersection of sports and statistics


GoalsShort-Term

• Fun place to discuss sports and learn more about data analytics

• Maintain an active website, publishing our findings

• Maintain an active listserv to distribute said findings


Goals (Cont.)


Goals (Cont.)Long-Term

• Form an active talent pool for teams to recruit from (for students interested in pursuing careers in sports analytics)

• Host sports analytics conferences in conjunction with professional sports organizations and other analytics teams (Stanford, Harvard, etc.)

• Be featured on the news! (ESPN FiveThirtyEight)


Overview of Group Structure


Overview• This group is what you make of it – if you just want to come and learn

about the cool stuff we’re doing, then that’s perfectly ok!

• If you’re interested in publishing and actively contributing to research, then we would love to have you on board as well

• Big takeaway = this group will be as little of a time commitment as possible


Overview• NO STATS KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED

• NO JOURNALISM EXPERIENCE REQUIRED

• LITERALLY ZERO REQUIREMENTS

• DON’T HAVE TO BE A HOUSTON ROCKETS FAN TO JOIN(Although highly recommended)


Levels of Involvement


There are two types of people…Data Analysts• Conduct research and help

write/publish articles• Attend additional meetings

concerning publishing schedule and research updates (once or twice a month)• Potentially present findings at

general meetings

General Members• Attend general meetings (once

or twice a month)• Discuss and contribute to sports

debates• Propose potential topics for the

data analysts to cover when publishing


Data Analyst Pods• Idea we were considering implementing

• You can choose a few other data analysts to work with and publish WITH them (ex: Humza, Chirag, Seth)

• Reduces the workload, get to meet some new people, put your minds together to solve problems


How to Get Involved


Depends on who you are…Data Analysts:• Fill out our application:

TexasSportsAnalytics.com• Email us your resume:

[email protected]• It’s not selective -- just want to

make sure you know what you’re getting into. No interview.

General Members:• Fill out the sign-in form at the

meeting with preferred email• Tell your friends to email us if

they would also like to subscribe to our newsletter



Important Ground Rules• Don’t be a jerk. Everyone loves their team, no need to be

unnecessarily rude.

• Learn to take a joke. The Mavs aren’t actually the worst team in the NBA, but know that I don’t actually mean it

• Have fun, enjoy what you’re doing


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Market Update9/8 – 9/15

9/15/2015

texasusit.org9/15/2015

China Update• Global markets rallied on promise of “more forceful

policy”• Trade data still paints picture of uncertainty • Import/exports are still concerning


Other Global News• Puerto Rico presents 5yr plan to restructure global debt

• S&P cuts Brazil’s credit rating to “junk” status

• Russia dismisses rumors of OPEC coordination to reduce supply


Business News• Glencore unveils plan for $30B debt reduction• Shut down 2 major mines to control supply

• United Airlines CEO resigns

• Quiksilver files for bankruptcy protection


Apple


Apple• Apple TV, Force

Touch, iPad Pro, iPhone 6S

• Concerns about diminishing innovation

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Portfolio UpdateBringing Home the Bacon Edition

9/15/2015

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USIT Portfolio Current Value: $ 11,859.085d Performance Index Comparison

+0.97%(-0.41%)(-0.34%)+0.05%

500

2000

9/15/2015

Name Price 5d Chg ($ · %) Mkt Value Unrealized G/L ($ · %)

52wk Low 52wk High

AAL American Airlines 42.64 23.92 · 4.51% 554.32 104.91 · 23.34% 28.10 56.20AAPL Apple 116.28 83.37 · 3.53% 2441.88 983.55 · 67.44% 92.00 134.54ACC American Campus 33.62 9.40 · 2.88% 336.20 -22.10 · -6.17% 32.12 45.38AGX Argan 38.67 -21.70 · -1.58% 1353.45 593.95 · 78.20% 28.62 42.50BABA Alibaba Group 64.89 19.75 · 6.48% 324.50 -83.25 · -20.42% 58.00 120.00BBRY BlackBerry 7.49 9.00 · 1.22% 749.00 -288.00 · -27.77% 6.41 12.63FNMA Fannie Mae 2.25 -2.86 · -0.88% 321.75 -197.34 · -38.02% 0.01 3.51GENC Gencor 9.06 0.94 · 0.22% 425.82 -73.32 · -14.69% 8.90 10.20GILD Gilead Sciences 111.05 30.75 · 5.86% 555.25 42.25 · 8.24% 85.95 123.37AJRD Aerojet Rocketdyne 21.30 5.00 · -0.47% 1040.00 214.00 · 25.15% 15.11 24.35IDT IDT Corporation 14.94 -44.25 · -3.80% 1120.50 -231.00 · -17.09% 14.00 23.235MUSA Murphy USA 53.39 0.75· 0.09% 800.85 211.35 · 35.85% 47.73 73.97PTC PTC Inc. 33.00 0.20 · 0.06% 330.00 -8.10 · -2.40% 31.15 42.76RNET RigNet 27.66 -10.40 · -3.62% 276.60 -177.60 · -39.10% 23.37 47.37SLCA U.S. Silica 18.07 -15.90 · -5.54% 271.05 -156.45 · -36.60% 16.49 73.05SWKH SWK Holdings 1.47 8.00 · 1.38% 588.00 140.00 · 31.25% 1.17 1.65TRN Trinity Industries 26.88 2.99 · 0.86% 349.44 -49.66 · -12.44% 21.78 50.77

Portfolio Problem:AAL: $449.41 Invested

RNET: $454.20 InvestedSLCA: $427.50 Invested

(Original Cost Basis)

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• Women’s health pharmaceutical company• Best momentum over the summer

9/15/2015

Juniper Pharmaceuticals Inc. (JNP)

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• Sold 125 shares (9/9/2015)Bought 125 shares (8/14/2013)

• Total Returns: +100.59%• Annualized Returns: +39.78%9/15/2015

Juniper Pharmaceuticals Inc. (JNP)

Sell Price: $13.68Buy Price: $6.82Sell Market Value:

$1,710.00

Cost Basis: $852.50Dividends Earned:

$0.00

Highest Price: $13.76 (9/9/2015)Lowest Price: $5.12 (1/23/2015)


Why Annualized Returns?Vishal: Invests $1,000, ends with $2,000 over 10 years.

Cliffe: Invests $500, ends with $650 over 2 years.

Total Return: +$1,000 profit, +100%

Total Return: +$150 profit, +30%

Annualized Return: +7.18%

Annualized Return: +14.02%

Who’s the better investor?

wow so much emphasis

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Stock PitchHilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT)Arjo MozumderConnor RuddickKajal Dayal9/15/2015

Gm2 9.15.2015

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Gm2 9.15.2015