Globalni izvjetaj o zaradama 2016/17.

Nejednakost zarada na radnom mjestu

Globalni izvjetaj o zaradama 2016/17.Nejednakost zarada na radnom mjestu

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

Meunarodna organizacija rada

Meunarodna organizacija rada (MOR) osnovana je 1919. godine s ciljem promovisanja socijalne pravde i promovisanja univerzalnog i dugoronog mira. MOR je odgovorna za osmiljavanje i nadgledanje meunar-odnih standarada rada. Jedina je tripartitna agencija Ujedinjenih nacija koja objedinjuje predstavnike vlada, poslodavce i zaposlene u cilju udruenog oblikovanja politika i programa za promovisanje dostojanstvenog rada za sve. Ovaj jedinstveni sporazum daje MOR-u prednost i priliku da obuhvati i ukljui injenice iz ,,stvarnog svijeta o zapoljavanju i radu.

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

Contents

Globalni izvjetaj o zaradama 2016/17.Nejednakost zarada na radnom mjestu

MEUNARODNA ORGANIZACIJA RADA ENEVA

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

Contents

Copyright International Labour Organization 2016 Prvo izdanje 2016.

Izdanja Meunarodne kancearije rada uivaju autorska prava pod Protokolom 2 Univerzalne konvencije o autorskim pravima. Svakako, kratki isjeci iz izdanja mogu se repordukovati bez odobrenja, pod uslovom da se navede izvor. Za prava o reprodukciji I prevoenju, potrebno je podnijeti prijavu kod Meunarodne organizacije rada (Autorska prava I licence) na adresu: International Labour Organisation, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, ili putem imejla: rights@ilo.org. MOR podrava I potstie takve prijave. Biblioteke, institucije I drugi korisnici registrovani za reprodukciju mogu preuzeti kopije u skladu sa licencom izdatom u te svrhe. Posjetite veb-sajt www.ifrro.org kako biste pronali prava za repordukciju u vaoj zemlji.

Globalni izvjetaj o zaradama 2016/17. - Nejednakost zarada na radnom mjestu

Global Wage Report 2016/17: Wage inequality in the workplace

International Labour Office Geneva: ILO, 2016

ISBN: 978-92-2-831341-3 (print)

978-92-2-831342-0 (web pdf)

zarade / razlike u zaradama / minimalna zarada / politike o zaradama / razvijene zemlje / zemlje u razvoju

13.07

Takoe dostupan na francuskom: ISBN 978-92-2-231151-4 (tampano izdanje), 978-92-2-231152-1 (pdf na vebu); portuglaskom: ISBN 978-92-2-831239-3 (pdf na vebu); ruskom: ISBN 978-92-2-430999-1 (tampano izdanje), 978-92-2-431000-3 (pdf na vebu); I panskom: ISBN 978-92-2-331203-9 (tampano izdanje), 978-92-2-331204-6 (pdf na vebu)

MOR podaci o katalogizaciji u pubikaciji

Oznake upotrebljene u publikacijama MOR-a, koje su u skladu sa praksom Ujedinjenih nacija, kao i prezentacija materijala unutar publikacija, ne izraavaju miljenje Meunarodne organizacije rada po pitanju pravnog statusa neke zemlje, oblasti, teritorije, organa upravljanja, ili njenih granica.

Odgovornost za miljenja izraena u potpisanim lancima, studijama i drugim tekstovima snose iskljuivo njihovi autori, a publikacija ne predstavlja odobrenje za miljenja iznijeta u njima od strane Meunarodne kancelarije rada.

Pozivanje na imena firmi i komercijalnih proizvoda i procesa ne znai da su oni priznati od Meunarodne organizacije rada, a nemogunost da se pozovemo na odreenu firmu, komercijalni proizvod ili proces nije znak neodobravanja.

Publikacije MOR-a kao I digitalna izdanja mogu se nabaviti u bolje opremljenim knjiarama I platformama za razmjenu digitalnih izdanja, ali se mogu I poruiti direktno na ilo@turpin-distribution.com. Za vie informacija, posjetite na veb-sajt www.ilo.org ili nas kontaktirajte na ilopubs@ilo.org.

Ovu publikaciju uradila je Kancelarija za izradu, tampanje i distribuiranje publikacija (PRODOC) Meunarodne organizacije rada.

Grafiki i tipografski dizajn, priprema rukopisa, ureivanje, izgled i sadraj, lektorisanje, tampanje, elektronsko izdavatvo i distribucije.

PRODOC nastoji da koristi papir iz uma kojima se upravlja na ekoloki, odriv i socijalno odgovoran nain.

Kod: DTP- WEI-CORR-ATA

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

V

Predgovor

Agendom Ujedinjenih nacija 2030 za odrivi razvoj identifikovan je dostojanstveni rad za sve ene i mukarce i nii nivo nejednakosti meu kljunim ciljevima nove univerzalne politike agende. Pitanja rasta i nejednakosti zarada zauzimaju centralno mjesto u ovoj agendi. Cilj za odrivi razvoj 8 poziva na odriv i inkluzivan ekonomski rast, punu i produktivnu zaposlenost i dostojanstven rad za sve, i naglaava znaaj postizanja jednakih zarada za rad jednake vrijednosti. Cilj 10 nastoji da smanji nejednakost unutar zemalja i meu zemljama, sa akcentom na rastu prihoda za 40 posto stanovnitva sa najniim zaradama, eliminisanju diskriminaciju i usvajanju fiskalne politike, politika zarada i socijalne zatite, kako bi se postepeno postigla vea jednakost. Udio prihoda od rada u BDP, koji odraava vezu izmeu rasta prosjene zarade i produktivnosti rada, prepoznat je kao znaajan pokazatelj u ovoj oblasti. Zabrinutost zbog nejednakosti takoe je izrazila grupa zemalja G20, koja je irenje nejednakosti identifikovala kao izazove socijalne i politike kohezije, sa znaajnim trokovima po ekonomski rast.1

Novi Izvjetaj o zaradama Meunarodne organizacije rada (MOR) - peti u nizu koji sada obuhvata vie od deset godina doprinosi ovoj agendi time to daje na raspolaganje vladama, socijalnim partnerima, akademicima i optoj javnosti upo-redne podatke i informacije o novim trendovima zarada. Ti trendovi pokazuju da je globalni realni rast zarada osjetno opao tokom ekonomske krize 2008.g, zatim se povratio u 2010.g, da bi od tada opet usporio. Ako iskljuimo Kinu, u kojoj je rast zarada bri nego bilo gdje drugo, rast zarada je pao ispod 1 posto u 2015. g. Kao to sam naglasio na godinjim sastancima Svjetske banke i MMF u oktobru 2016. godine, bri rast zahtijeva poveanje potronje, a za uzvrat odrive politike zarada i socijalne zatite.2 Poboljanje zarada i dostojanstvenih mogunosti bie od sutinskog znaaja za izlaenje iz zamke sporog rasta u kojoj se globalna ekonomija trenutno nala.

Dok prethodni izvjetaj prouava nejednakost zarada i prihoda iz perspektive domainstva, ovogodinji Globalni izvjetaj o zaradama okree se dinamici na nivou preduzea. Preciznije reeno, izvjetaj analizira opseg u kojem je sveukupna nejednakost zarada rezultat nejednakosti zarada izmeu preduzea i nejednakosti zarada unutar njih. Analiza je nastavak novije inovativne ekonomske literature koja raspolae novim bazama podataka sa detaljnim informacijama o radnicima i preduzeima u kojima rade. Ova literatura pokazuje da su u mnogim zemljama promjene u nejednakosti zarada izmeu preduzea kljuni pokretai ukupnog trenda nejednakosti zarada. Rezultati ovog izvjetaja pokazuju da je mjera nejednakosti zarada unutar preduze-1 http://g20.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/G20-Policy-Priorities-on-Labour-Income-Share-and-Inequal-

ities.pdf.2 http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/statements-and-speeches/WCMS_531665/lang--en/in-

dex.htm

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

Contents

VI

a i njen uticaj na ukupnu nejednakost zarada u prolosti moda potcijenjena. Nejednakost zarada unutar preduzea, a posebno velikih, postala je veoma znaajna, jer 1 posto onih sa najveim zaradama u ovim preduzeima ostavljaju druge daleko iza sebe. Ovakvi rezultati imaju znaajne politike implikacije, o kojima e biti rijei u zavrnom dijelu izvjetaja.

Drugo pitanje koje je pokrenuto u ovom izvjetaju odnosi se na znaaj socijalnog dijaloga i kolektivnog pregovaranja kao bitnih faktora za promovisanje inkluzivnog rasta. Praksa pokazuje da zastupljenost opsenog kolektivnog pregovaranja doprinosi tjenjoj raspodjeli i stabilnijem rastu. Tripartitna saradnja izmeu vlade i socijalnih partnera moe imati vanu ulogu u stvaranju uslova za efikasno kolektivno prego-varanje, uz garanciju da je uspostavljen odgovarajui okvir. Tripartitni konstituenti MOR takoe stalno istiu da je prvi princip uvrivanja sistema za definisanje minimalne zarade, puna konsultacija i, u mjeri u kojoj je mogue, direktno uee, na ravnopravnoj osnovi, socijalnih partnera u svim fazama uspostavljanja i funkci-onisanja sistema za definisanje minimalnih zarada.33

Vjerujem da e ovaj Izvjetaj, isto koliko i prethodni, stimulisati znaajne politike debate i biti koristan materijal za socijalni dijalog irom svijeta.

Guy RyderGeneralni direktor MOR

3 Vidite, na primjer, Ishod diskusije Odbora o primjeni standarda opteg istraivanja koji se tie sistema min-imalnih zarada 2014.

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

Sadraj

Predgovor ............................................................................................................................... 4

Tabele ...................................................................................................................................... 11

Okviri ...................................................................................................................................... 12

Slike u dodatku ...................................................................................................................... 12

Tabele u dodatku ................................................................................................................... 12

Okviri u dodatku ................................................................................................................... 12

Pogreno je dananju veliku nejednakost gledati kao proizvod sila nad kojima

nemamo kontrolu.Anthony B. Atkinson, Nejednakost: ta se moe uiniti? (2016) ..... 13

Priznanja ................................................................................................................................. 13Poseban dorpinos ........................................................................................................... 13Posebna zahvalnica ........................................................................................................ 13Izvori podataka ............................................................................................................... 14I. Dio Glavni trendovi zarada ....................................................................................... 15II. Dio Nejednakost na radnom mjestu ....................................................................... 17III Dio: Rezime i zakljuci ............................................................................................. 19

Dio I .......................................................................................................................... 24

Glavni trendovi zarada ............................................................................................. 241 Uvod ................................................................................................................... 242 Ekonomski kontekst .......................................................................................... 25

2.1 Unaprijeen ekonomski rast u razvijenim ekonomijama, ali nii rast na globalnom nivou ................................................................................................ 25

2.2 Najnoviji trendovi na tritu rada ......................................................................... 283 Globalni i regionalni trendovi zarada ............................................................... 29

3.1 Globalni trendovi zarada ....................................................................................... 293.2 Trendovi zarada G20 .............................................................................................. 303.3 Regionalni trendovi zarada .................................................................................... 313.4 Trendovi karakteristini za odreenu zemlju ...................................................... 323.5 Zarade i rizik od deflacije ....................................................................................... 34

4 Udio zarada, produktivnosti i rada ................................................................... 354.1 Stalni jaz izmeu rasta zarada i rasta produktivnosti rada ................................ 364.2 Ukupan pad udjela dohotka od rada .................................................................... 37

5 Nejednakost zarada i minimalne zarade ........................................................... 395.1 Nejednakost zarada ................................................................................................. 395.2 Minimalne zarade ................................................................................................... 42

6 Nejednakosti meu prosjenim zaradama izmeu mukaraca i ena ............. 46

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

Contents

VIII

Dio II ........................................................................................................................ 50

Nejednakost zarada na radnom mjestu ................................................................... 507 Uvod ................................................................................................................... 508 Sveukupna raspodjela zarada ............................................................................ 52

8.1 Nivoi zarada u raspodjeli zarada ............................................................................ 528.2 Raspodjela zarada posmatrana kroz razliite mjere nejednakosti ..................... 55

9 Karakteristike radnika ....................................................................................... 589.1 Istraivanje naina na koji line osobine i karakteristike trita rada utiu

na zarade .................................................................................................................. 589.2 Na koji nain raspodjela zarada varira za evropske radnike za razliitim

osobinama ................................................................................................................ 589.3 Na koji nain raspodjela zarada varira za radnike sa razliitim osobinama

u novim ekonomijama............................................................................................ 609.4 Interakcije osobina radnika unutar podjele zarada ............................................. 61

10 Nejednakost zarada izmeu preduzea i unutar njih ....................................... 6410.1 Nalazi iz literature .................................................................................................. 6410.2 Uporeivanje prosjenih zarada meu preduzeima ........................................ 6810.3 Razlike u zaradama unutar preduzea u poreenju sa razlikama u zarada

meu preduzeima.................................................................................................. 7210.4 Uporeivanje prosjenih zarada i zarada pojedinaca ....................................... 7810.5 U kojoj mjeri je nejednakost zarada rezultat nejednakosti unutar preduzea,

a u kojoj mjeri nejednakosti izmeu preduzea? ................................................ 8211 Rodni jaz u zaradama i radno mjesto ................................................................ 85

11.1 Rodni jaz u zaradama na radnom mjestu ........................................................... 8511.2 U kojim se godinama javlja rodni jaz u zaradama? ........................................... 88

Dio III ....................................................................................................................... 89

Kratak pregled i zakljuci ........................................................................................ 8912 Znaaj koordinacije politike na globalnom nivou ............................................ 8913 Mogue mjere za smanjenje prekomjerne nejednakosti u zaradama ............... 90

13.1 Minimalne zarade i kolektivno pregovaranje ..................................................... 9013.2 Najvee zarade: samoregulacija preduzea ili vie propisa? ............................. 9213.3 Porast produktivnosti za odriva preduzea ...................................................... 9313.4 Rodni jaz u zaradama i druge vrste ..................................................................... 94

14 Ostale mjere za smanjenje nejednakosti ........................................................... 9414.1 Fiskalne politike: Porezi i transferi ...................................................................... 9514.2 Politike koje indirektno utiu na zarade i raspodjelu zarada ........................... 96

Prilog I ...................................................................................................................... 97Globalni trendovi koji se odnose na zarade: metodoloka pitanja ......................... 97

Koncepti i definicije ....................................................................................................... 97Cenzus ............................................................................................................................. 99Tretman neodaziva ......................................................................................................... 99Tretman kompletnog neodaziva................................................................................... 100

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

IX

Ponderi odgovora ........................................................................................................... 100Faktori kalibracije ........................................................................................................... 102Kalibrisani ponderi odaziva .......................................................................................... 102Procjena globalnih i regionalnih trendova ................................................................. 103Razlike u globalnim i regionalnim procjenama izmeu izdanja Globalnog izvjetaja o zaradama .................................................................................. 105

Prilog II .................................................................................................................... 115Regionalno grupisanje MOR ........................................................................................ 115

Prilog III ................................................................................................................... 119Pokrivenost zemalja po regionima i globalne procjene ............................................ 119Podaci i odabir zemlje za Dio II ................................................................................... 120Podaci koji predstavljaju procjene za razvijene ekonomije ...................................... 120Podaci koji predstavljaju procjenu za nove ekonomije i ekonomije sa niskim prihodima ........................................................................................................................ 121Ankete radne snage i/ili ankete domainstava koritene za procjenu raspodjele zarade pojedinaca ........................................................................................................... 121Istraivanja na nivou preduzea radi procjene raspodjele zarada pojedinaca ....... 124

Prilog IV ................................................................................................................... 126Ralanjivanje varijanse ................................................................................................. 126

Napomene ................................................................................................................. 128Bibliografija .............................................................................................................. 132Koriene baze podataka .................................................................................................... 139

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

Contents

X

Slike

1. Godinji prosjeni ekonomski rast, 200616. (BDP u stalnim cijenama)2. Inflacija, 200616 (prosjene potroake cijene)3. Godinji prosjeni ekonomski rast po regijama, 2010 i 2015. (BDP u stalnim cijenama)4. Inflacija po regijama, 2010 i 2015 (prosjene potroake cijene)5. Godinji prosjeni realni rast zarada, 2006156. Godinji prosjeni realni rast zarada u zemljama G20, 200615.7. Godinji prosjeni realni rast zarada po regijama, 200615.8. Indeks prosjene realne zarade za razvijene G20 zemlje, 200615.9. Indeks prosjene realne zarade za nove zemlje G20, 200615.10. Indeks realne prosjene zarade za odabrane evropske zemlje, 200715. 11. Trendovi rasta realne prosjene zarade i radna produktivnost u razvijenim zemljama,

19992015.12. Raspodjela korigovanog udjela dohotka za odabrane 133 ekonomije, 1995. i 2014.13. Udio dohotka od rada kod etiri primjera razvijenih i novih ekonomija14. Promjena korigovanog udjela dohotka prije, u toku i nakon krize15. Mjerenje nejednakosti prihoda: Odnos D9/D1 16. Nejednakost zarada u OECD zemljama 17. Nejednakost zarada u odabranim novim ekonomijama i zemljama u razvoju 18. Evolucija nejednakosti dohotka izmeu 1995. i 2012.19. Promjena udjela dohotka i nejednakost dohotka, 19952012 .20. Minimalne zarade u odnosu na srednje vrijednosti i prosjene zarade odabranih

evropskih zemalja21. Minimalne zarade u odnosu na srednje vrijednosti i prosjene zarade odabranih

novih ekonomija22. Konvergencija minimalnih zarada meu zemljama s visokim prihodima23. Razlika u satnici meu polovima kod odreenog broja ekonomija (preliminarni

podaci)24. Satnice u Evropi, 2002, 2006. i 2010.25. Mjesene zarade u Evropi, 2002, 2006. i 2010.26. Relativna distribucija zarada u odabranim evropskim zemljama, 2010 .27. Relativna distribucija zarada u odabranim zemljama u razvoju, posljednja godina28. Struktura prosjene mjesene zarade u Evropi, 2002, 2006. i 2010.29. Udio ukupne realne bruto mjesene zarade u Evropi po centilima, ponderisani pro-

sjek, 2010.30. Posmatranje distribucije zarade unutar decila: karakteristike pojedinaca, evropske

ekonomije, 2010 .31. Posmatranje distribucije zarada unutar decila: karakteristike pojedinaca, evropske

ekonomije 32. Evropa, reziduali nakon predvianja satnica33. Evropa, podgrupe34. Reziduali nakon predvianja satnica, nove ekonomije i ekonomije niskih prihoda35. Nejednakost zarada izmeu preduzea, Evropa, 2002, 2006. i 2010.36. Relativna distribucija zarada na nivou preduzea, odabrane evropske zemlje, 2010.

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

XI

37. Nejednakost zarada meu pojedincima i meu preduzeima uporeivanjem P90/P10 i P100/P10, odabrane evropske zemlje, 2010.

38. Relativna distribucija zarada na nivou preduzea, odabrane zemlje u razvoju39. Nejednakost zarada meu pojedincima i meu preduzeima, odabrane zemlje u

razvoju 40. Udio preduzea s niskim, srednjim i visokim prosjenim zaradama u odabranim

evropskim zemljama i u Evropi kao cjelini 41. Udio preduzea sa niskim, srednjim i vioskim prosjenim zaradama u odabranim

zemljama u ravoju 42. Udio zaposlenih i prosjenih zarada prema grani privrede za odabrane zemlje43. Preduzea rangirana prema prosjenoj satnici, sa prosjenim minimalnim i maksi-

malnim zaradama pojedinaca u svakom centilu, 201044. Ponderisana minimalna - maksimalna razlika u satnici unutar preduzea45. Prosjene zarade unutar preduzea i standardna devijacija46. Kategorije zanimanja i diferencijali zarada: Preduzea klasifikovana prema sektoru

privrede, rangirana po prosjenoj satnici na nivou preduzea 47. Vjetine zanimanja i diferencijali zarada: Preduzea klasifikovana prema veliini,

rangirana po prosjenoj satnici na nivou preduzea 48. Prosjene satnice, pojedinci i preduzea, individualne zarade rangirane po centilima49. Posmatranje najniih 10 posto zarada: Prosjene satnice, pojedinci i preduzea 50. Posmatranje najveih 10 posto zarada: Prosjene satnice, pojedinci i preduzea 51. Ralanjivanje varijanse satnice za 22 ekonomije u Evropi, 2010.52. Visoka nejednakost zarada u Evropi na osnovu satnica (a) i udio ukupnog mjesenog

dohotka (b)53. Rodni jaz u zaradama meu pojedinacima (a) kod populacije i (b) u preduzeu, 2010.54. Rodni jaz u zaradama meu najplaenijim kategorijama zanimanja i meu pripadi-

nicima 1 procenta stanovnitva sa najviom zaradom (plate po satu, 2010)55. Rodni jaz u zaradama po starosnoj dobi meu zaposlenima, satnice, 2010.

Tabele

1. Razliite mjere nejednakosti u 22 evropske zemlje, 2010. 2. Razliite mjere nejednakosti u odabranim zemljama u razvoju, 2010 .3. Presjek procjena za sliku 44 po sektorima i veliini, prosjenoj satnici, u eurima, 2010:

Odabrani centili ponderisane minimalne i maksimalne razlike satnica za pojedinace unutar preduzea

4. Presjek procjena za sliku 48 po sektorima i veliini, prosjenoj satnici, u eurima, 2010: Odabrani centili distribucije individualnih satnica i prosjene zarade za pojedince i preduzee za koje rade

5. Varijacija bruto satnice u Evropi, unutar i izmeu preduzea, 200210.6. Raspodjela rukovodeih pozicija u populaciji i meu pripadnicima 1 procenta sta -

novnitva sa najveom zaradom, Evropa, prosjek za 2010.Okviri

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

Contents

XII

1. Podaci iz baze MOR o globalnim zaradama 2. Deflacija i zarade u Japanu 3. Odreivanje udjela dohotka zaposlenih4. Novi online vodi MOR za politike o minimalnim zaradama 5. ta se krije iza rodnog jaza u zaradama: Pregled literature6. Uloga karakteristika vjetina u odreivanju zarada7. Nejednakost zarada izmeu i unutar preduzea: Pregled literature8. Nejednakost zarada unutar centila preduzea 9. Predstavljanje zarada pojedinaca i preduzea koja ih zapoljavaju

Slike u dodatku

A1. Udio plaenih radnika u ukupnoj zaposlenostiA2. Logaritamska distribucija bruto satnice u poreenju sa normalnom gustinom

Tabele u dodatku

A1. Rast realnih zarada po regijama, 201315.A2. Novo regionalno grupisanje MORA3. Staro regionalno grupisanje MORA4. Opseg globalne baze podataka o zaradama, 2015 (u procentima)A5. Opseg globalne baze podataka o zaradama, 2015, 200715 (u procentima)

Okviri u dodatku

A1. ta su zarade?

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

Pogreno je dananju veliku nejednakost gledati kao proizvod sila nad kojima nemamo kontrolu. Anthony B. Atkinson, Nejednakost: ta se moe uiniti? (2016)

Priznanja

Izvjetaj je pripremio Sektor za inkluzivno trite rada, radne odnose i uslove na radu (INWORK) MOR, uz doprinos kolega iz MOR u enevi i kancelarija podrunica, pod odgovornou Philippe Marcadent, Rukovodioca INWORK sektora. Glavni autori izvje-taja su Patrick Belser i Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez; Nicolas Matre sprovodio je analizu za Dio I izvjetaja, uz podrku Ding Xu, a Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez je vodila i koordinisala rad na Dijelu II izvjetaja. Chris Edgar je koordinisao rad na redigovanju, objavljivanju i anonimnoj recenziji itavog izvjetaja. Christian Olsen je radio dizajn korica. Posebnu zahvalnost dugujemo Sandri Polaski, koja je dala krajnje korisne sugestije i komentare koji su unaprijedili kvalitet izvjetaja.

Poseban dorpinosDio II izvjetaja zasniva se na istraivakom projektu koji sadri analizu podataka i priloge od Flore Brown, Tobias Haepp, Asier Mariscal, Roxana Maurizio, Zulfan Tadjo-eddin i Nade Trifkovic. Tehniku recenziju Dijela II, koja je raena pored opte recenzije izvjetaja, radili su Andrea Regoli i Antonella DAgostino (Parthenope Univerzitet u Napulju). Takoe zahvaljujemo Natalia Volkow Fernandez i Nacionalnom institutu za statistiku i geografiju (the Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas e Geografa (INEGI) za pristup laboratoriji podataka u njihovom sjeditu u Meksiko Sitiju, kao i Flor Brown i Isalia Navas za podrku kvantitativnoj analizi podataka iz Meksika.

Globalne i regionalne procjene u Dijelu I izvjetaja zasnivaju se na istoj metodolo-giji (opisanoj u Dodatku I), kao u ranijim izdanjima Globalnog izvjetaja o zaradama, a formulisane su u saradnji sa Odsjekom MOR za statistiku, na predlog Farhad Mehran (konsultanta MOR). Recenziju metodologije radili su 2011. godine Yves Till (Institut za statistiku Univerziteta Neuchtel), Yujin Jeong i Joseph L. Gastwirth (HEC Montral i George Washington Univerzitet, Vaington, DC), i Joyup Ahn (Institut rada u Koreji).

Posebna zahvalnicaPosebnu zahvalnost dugujemo nacionalnim kancelarijama za statistiku koje su nam pomogle prilikom sakupljanja podataka. Takoe bismo eljeli da zahvalimo itavom timu u MOR/SIALC (Informacioni sistem i analiza rada) u Panami, a posebno Bolvar Pino, na dostavljanju podataka o zaradama u Latinskoj Americi i Karibima, kao i Cuntao Xia (MOR, Bangkok), na podacima za Aziju i obezbjeivanje procjena o realnom rastu zarada u Indiji.

elimo da zahvalimo i sljedeim ljudima na dragocjenim inputima i komentarima: Janine Berg, Ekkehard Ernst, Xavier Estupinan, Youcef Ghellab, Naj Ghosheh, Susan Hayter, Frank Hoffer, Steven Kapsos, Daniel Kostzer, Andres Marinakis, Uma Rani, Catherine Saget, Kristen Sobeck, Nicolas Studer, Steven Tobin i Manuela Tomei. Naa posebna zahvalnost za dvoje anonimnih recenzenata koji su radili na recenziji izvjetaja. Zahvaljujemo takoe na prilozima i Panagiotis Giannarakis, Luis Pinedo Caro, Ulrike Stein i Andrew Watt.

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

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G-din Anthony B. Atkinson (19442017) bio je eksterni recezent nekoliko izdanja Globalnog izvjetaja o zaradama, ukljuujui i ovo. Njegovi komentari su uvijek una-preivali sadraj i MOR je zahvalna na ovom neprocjenjivom doprinosu.

Izvori podatakaDio izvjetaja bazira se i na Anketi Eurostata o strukturi zarade, 200210. Zahvaljujemo Eurostatu na pruanju ovih podataka u okviru ugovora broj RPP 252/2015-SES-ILO. Drugi dio izvjetaja se temelji na podacima Eurostatove statistike EU o prihodima i ivotnim uslovima, 200315. Zahvaljujemo Eurostatu na pruanju ovih podataka u okviru ugovora broj 52/2013-EU-SILC. Svi zakljuci doneseni na osnovu ovih podataka su odgovornost autora.

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

Kratak pregled

I. Dio Glavni trendovi zarada

KontekstTokom posljednjih nekoliko godina sve vie se razvila svijest o potrebi praenja trendova zarada i sprovoenja odrivih politika koje spreavaju njihovu stagnaciju, podizanja nivoa zarada za milione siromanih radnika irom svijeta, obezbjeenja pravedne raspodjele, smanjenja prekomjernih zarada i nejednakosti prihoda, te podrke potronji kao klju-nom stubu odrivih ekonomija.

Nii rast zarada na globalnom nivouPrvi dio ovogodinjeg Izvjetaja o globalnim zaradama pokazuje da je nakon finansijske krize 2008-09, globalni realni rast zarada poeo da se popravlja 2010. godine, ali je od 2012. g. usporen, biljeei pad sa 2,5 posto na 1,7 posto u 2015. godini, najnii nivo za etiri godine. Ako iskljuimo Kinu, gdje je rast zarada bri nego bilo gdje drugo, realni rast zarada opao je sa 1,6 posto u 2012. g. na 0,9 posto u 2015. godini.

Manji rast zarada u novim i ekonomijama u razvoju Tokom veeg dijela post-kriznog perioda globalni porast zarada u velikoj mjeri je voen relativno snanim rastom zarada u novim ekonomijama i zemljama u razvoju u Aziji i na Pacifiku, pogotovo u Kini, kao i u nekim drugim zemljama i regionima u razvoju. U novije vrijeme, ovaj trend je usporen ili suprotan. Meu novim ekonomijama i zemlja-ma u razvoju (G20), realni rast zarada opao je sa 6,6 posto u 2012. na 2,5 posto u 2015. Posmatrajui regionalni rast zarada, izvjetaj pokazuje da je u 2015. godini realni rast zarada i dalje ostao relativno stabilan na 4,0 posto u Aziji, u srednjoj i zapadnoj Aziji je opao na 3,4 posto, dok se u arapskim dravama okvirno procjenjivao na 2,1 posto, a u Africi na 2,0 posto. U 2015.g, realne zarade pale su za 1,3 posto u Latinskoj Americi i na Karibima (uglavnom zbog pada zarada u Brazilu), te za 5,2 posto u istonoj Evropi (uglavnom zbog pada zarada u Ruskoj Federaciji i Ukrajini).

Vei rast zarada u razvijenim zemljamaNasuprot tome, rast zarada povean je u razvijenim zemljama. Meu razvijenim zemlja-ma G20, realni rast zarada kretao se od 0,2 posto u 2012. g. do 1,7 posto u 2015. godini, to je najvea stopa u posljednjih deset godina. U 2015. realni rast zarada porastao je na 2,2 posto u SAD, na 1,5 posto u sjevernoj, junoj i zapadnoj Evropi, i na 1,9 posto u zemljama Evropske unije (EU). Bri rast zarada u SAD i Njemakoj, objanjava znaajan dio tih trendova. Jo uvijek je nejasno da li e se takav rast odrati u budunosti ili e se razvijene zemlje vratiti na prethodni model stagnacije. U ekonomskom kontekstu u kojem su rizici deflacije porasli u mnogim zemljama, zarade u opadanju mogu i same postati vaan faktor rizika, koji potencijalno dovodi do deflacijske spirale.

xvi Global Wage Report 2016/17

trends. Itis as yet unclear whether such wage growth will be sustained into the future or whether developed countries will return to their previous pattern of wage stagnation. In an economic context in which risks of deflation have increased in many countries, falling wages could themselves become an important risk factor, potentially leading to deflationary wageprice spirals.

Globally, the recovery in Northern America and some European countries was not sufficient to offset the decline in emerging and developing economies. The lower differential in wage growth between developed and developing countries also implies a slowdown in the process of wage convergence between the two groups of countries.

Mixed trends in labour income sharesTrends in real wages are influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and price inflation, but other factors also come into play. There is now a large literature showing that in a majority of countries across the world wage growth in recent decades has lagged behind the growth of labour productivity, leading to a fall in the labour share of GDP. This is likely due to a combination of factors including globalization, skills-biased technology, the weakening of labour market institu-tions, and the growing pressure from financial markets to shift surpluses generated by large businesses towards investors. This years report shows that, after some expected countercyclical upward movement in the labour share in many countries during the years 200710, the labour share has resumed its long-term decline in a small majority of countries during 201015. Exceptions include China, Germany and the United States, but even in these countries the labour shares remain far below their peak levels.

Wage inequality and minimum wagesAverage wages do not tell the story of how wages are distributed among different groups of wage earners. It is a well-established fact that during recent decades wage inequality has increased in many countries around the world. While some level of inequality reflects differences in workers individual and productive char-acteristics, growing concerns have been expressed about the adverse social and economic consequences of excessive inequality. The report highlights the frequent correlation between greater wage inequality, greater household income inequality and declining labour shares.

In the most recent years, many countries have adopted or strengthened minimum wages, as one way of supporting low-paid workers and reducing wage in-equality. Recent evidence shows that, when set at an adequate level, minimum wages can raise the income of low-paid workersmany of whom are womenwithout significant negative effects on jobs. The setting of minimum wages, however, is a balancing act; it should be evidence-based and done in full consultation with social partners and, where appropriate, with their direct participation on an equal footing. The report provides some comparative figures on the level of minimum wages relative to median wages in a range of countries.

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XVI

Globalno gledano, oporavak u Sjevernoj Americi i nekim evropskim zemljama nije bio dovoljan da nadoknadi pad u novim ekonomijama i zemljama u razvoju. Nia razlika u rastu zarada izmeu razvijenih zemalja i zemalja u razvoju podrazumijeva i usporavanje procesa pribliavanja zarada izmeu dvije grupe zemalja.

Mjeoviti trendovi udjela prihoda od radaTrendovi realnih zarada su pod uticajem ekonomskih faktora, kao to su rast BDP i inflacija cijena, ali su i drugi faktori u igri. Trenutno mnogi izvjetaji pokazuju da u ve-ini zemalja irom svijeta rast zarada u posljednjih nekoliko decenija zaostaje za rastom produktivnosti rada, to je dovelo do pada uea rada u BDP. To je vjerovatno zbog kombinacije faktora, ukljuujui globalizaciju, vjetine koje se tiu tehnologije, slabljenje institucija trita rada i sve veeg pritiska finansijskih trita za prebacivanjem vikova, koje generiu velike firme, prema investitorima. Ovogodinji izvjetaj pokazuje da, na-kon odreenog oekivanog kontraciklinog porasta udjela rada u mnogim zemljama u periodu od 2007-10, ovaj udio je nastavio svoj dugoroni pad u veini zemalja 2010-15. godine. Izuzeci su Kina, Njemaka i Sjedinjene Drave, ali i u tim zemljama udio rada je daleko ispod njihovog maksimuma.

Nejednakosti zarada i minimalne zaradeProsjene zarade ne govore o njihovoj raspodjeli meu raznim grupama radnika. Poznata je injenica da se tokom posljednjih decenija nejednakost zarada poveala u mnogim zemljama irom svijeta. Dok s jedne strane, odreeni nivo nejednakosti odraava razlike u individualnim i proizvodnim osobinama radnika, izraena je sve vea zabrinutost u vezi sa nepovoljnim socijalnim i ekonomskim posljedicama prekomjerne nejednakosti. U izvjetaju se istie uestala veza izmeu nejednakosti zarada, vea nejednakost prihoda domainstva i pad udjela rada.

Posljednjih godina, mnoge zemlje su usvojile ili uvrstile minimalne zarade, kao jedan od naina podsticanja slabije plaenih radnika i smanjenja nejednakosti zarada. Nedavna istraivanja pokazuju da, kada se postave na odgovarajui nivo, minimalne zarade mogu podii prihode slabo plaenih radnika - od kojih su mnogi ene - bez znaajnih negativnih posljedica na poslove. Definisanje minimalne zarade je, meutim, in balansiranja; treba da bude utemeljeno na dokazima i uraeno u dogovoru sa socijalnim partnerima i, po potrebi, uz njihovo direktno ravnopravno uee. U Izvjetaju su dati uporedni podaci o nivou minimalnih zarada u odnosu na prosjene zarade velikog broja zemalja.

Rodni jaz u zaradama U okviru ukupne raspodjele zarada, takoe, postoji i jaz izmeu razliitih grupa radnika. Jedan od njih je rodni jaz u zaradama, procenat je manji kod prosjene zarade ena u od-nosu na prosjenu zaradu mukaraca. Razne studije su pokazale da je u veini zemalja za koje su podaci dostupni, ovaj jaz uglavnom smanjen tokom vremena, ali nije eliminisan. U Izvjetaju su date najnovije raspoloive procjene o rodnom jazu kod plaanja satnice u mnogim zemljama, koji veoma varira od zemlje do zemlje, od oko nula do skoro 45 posto.

xviiExecutive summary

Gender pay gapsWithin the overall wage distribution there are also pay gaps between different groups of workers. One of these is the gender pay gap, the percentage shortfall in the average wage of women relative to the average wage of men. Various studies have shown that across most countries for which data are available, the gap has generally narrowed over time but has not been closed. The report provides the most recent available estimates of the hourly gender pay gap for a wide range of countries, showing its huge variation across countries, from about zero to almost 45per cent.

Part II. Inequality at the workplace

Wage inequality gets steep at the topWage inequality in a country can be measured in different ways. Ranking all of a countrys salaried workers in ascending order of their wages and dividing them into ten groups (deciles) or 100 groups (centiles), the report shows that in most countries wages climb gradually across most of the wage distribution and then jump sharply for the top 10per cent and, especially, for the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In Europe, the highest-paid 10per cent receive on average 25.5per cent of the total wages paid to all employees in their respective countries, which is almost as much as what the lowest-paid 50per cent earn (29.1per cent). Although the data are not strictly comparable, the share of the top 10per cent is even higher in some emerging economies, for example Brazil (35per cent), India (42.7per cent) and South Africa (49.2per cent). In South Africa and India, the lowest-paid 50per cent receive, respectively, just 11.9per cent and 17.1per cent of all wages paid out.

Worker characteristics fail to explain a substantive part of the wage distributionThe report shows that wages and wage inequality are not determined only by the skills-related characteristics of individuals (such as level of education, age or tenure) but that a host of other factors also play crucial roles: these include, for example, gender, enterprise size, type of contract and the sectors in which workers work. Descriptive statistics for a sample of both developed and developing coun-tries document that a university degree does not necessarily guarantee a highly paid job; that the real estate and financial sectors are over-represented among top-paid workers; and that the proportion of women continuously declines as one moves towards the higher-paid deciles. In Europe, for example, women make up on average 5060per cent of workers in the three lowest pay deciles; this share falls to about 35per cent among the best-paid 10per cent of employees, and further to 20per cent among the highest-paid 1per cent of employees. In some emerging and developing countries, the contrast is even greater. The report also runs a standard model which seeks to explain wages on the basis of individual skills-related char-acteristics such as the level of education, age and tenure, but this model fails to explain a substantial part of the observed variation in wages. Indeed, there are

Contents

XVII

II. Dio Nejednakost na radnom mjestu

Nejednakost zarada je sve vea na vrhuNejednakost zarada u zemlji moe se mjeriti na razliite naine. Reanjem svih radnika jedne zemlje perma rastuem nizu njihovih zarada i njihovom podjelom u deset grupa (decila) ili 100 grupa (centila), izvjetaj pokazuje da se u veini zemalja zarade postepeno penju u veem dijelu raspodjele zarada, a onda naglo skau meu najviih 10 procena-ta, a posebno kod 1 posto zaposlenih sa najveim zaradama. U Evropi najvie plaenih 10 posto dobijaju u prosjeku 25,5 posto od ukupne zarade isplaene svim radnicima u njihovim zemljama, to je skoro jednako onome to zarade najnie plaenih 50 posto (29,1 posto). Iako podaci nisu u potpunosti uporedivi, udio prvih 10 posto je jo vei u nekim novim ekonomijama, na primjer u Brazilu (35 posto), Indiji (42,7 posto) i Junoj Africi (49,2 posto). U Junoj Africi i Indiji, najnie plaenih 50 posto primaju samo 11,9 posto, odnosno 17,1 posto svih isplaenih zarada.

Osobine radnika ne objanjavaju znaajan dio distribucije zaradaIzvjetaj pokazuje da zarade i nejednakost zarada nisu odreeni samo po karakteristikama vjetina pojedinaca (kao to su nivo obrazovanja, starost ili sta), ve da i niz drugih faktora igraju znaajnu ulogu: to su, na primjer, pol, veliina preduzea, vrst