Globalization, Growth and Poverty David Dollar Development Economics World Bank.
-
Upload
brandon-neal -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
3
Transcript of Globalization, Growth and Poverty David Dollar Development Economics World Bank.
Globalization, Growth and
Poverty
David DollarDevelopment EconomicsWorld Bank
Globalization and Poverty
“…all the main parties support nonstop expansion in world trade and services although we all know it … makes rich people richer and poor people poorer…”
– Walter Schwarz, The Guardian
President Fox on Globalization
“We are convinced that globalization is good and it’s good when you do your homework… keep your fundamentals in line on the economy, build up high levels of education, respect rule of law… when you do your part, we are convinced that you get the benefit.”
ZambiaEgyptNigeriaSenegalHondurasTogoKenyaPakistan
BrazilIndia
ThailandBangladesh
MalaysiaPhilippinesArgentina
MexicoChina
-100 0 100Percent change
Change in trade/GDP, 1977-97(selected countries)
Developing country exportshave shifted toward manufactures
0
20
40
60
80
Agriculture
Minerals
Manufactures
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Share
Increase in trade/GDP: 1970s to 1990s
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Non-globalizers Rich countries Globalizers
-18%
71%
104%
Growth in globalizers accelerated as integration proceeded
1.4%
2.9%
3.5%
5.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Convergence and divergence in the 1990s
-1%
2%
5%
2%
4%
6%
Less globalized countries
Rich countries More globalized countries
GDP per capita growth rates, 1990s (ppp)
0
Poverty reduction in Bangladesh, India, Uganda, Vietnam, and China closely related to growth
Percent per annum, 1992-98
3.3*
4.43.8
6.4
9.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
Bangladesh India Uganda Vietnam China
GDP per capita growth rate
2.1*
5.4**5.9
7.5
8.4Poverty reduction
* Bangladesh figures are for 1992-2000 ** India figures are for 1993-99
20%
30%
40%
6.54 6.64 6.74 6.84 6.94 7.04 7.14 7.24 7.34 7.44 7.54
Per capita household consumption 1993 (log scale)
Share of 6-15 year olds working
1993
1998
Child labor and household consumption levels in Vietnam
Poor countries that globalized have seen the fastest growth in wages
0
10
20
30
Less globalizedcountries
Rich countries More globalized countries
Wage growth between 1980s and 1990s (percent)
Maritime transport to the U.S. (East Coast): textiles
Mombasa Bombay Shanghai Bangkok Kao Hsiung
Costs as share of value of exports
(8,452) (10,319) (11,222) (10,631)
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
(8,360)
Quantifying bottlenecks: Days to clear imported inputs through customs
0
4
8
1210.6
7.0 7.0
India Korea Thailand
6.7
21.0
9.210.6
0
10
20
India Shanghai
Last timeLongest
7.8
China
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Kerala
Delhi Punjab
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka Andhra Pradesh
Gujarat Maharashtra
Investment rate (percentage), 1999
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
GoodPoorInvestment climate by state
Investment climate makes a big difference
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Number of people living on less than $1 per day (millions)
Poverty has dropped by 200 million over past 20 years, despite world population increased of 1.6 billion.
Number of very poor has fallen since 1980
Globalization: Agenda for Action
• “Development round” on market access
• Improving the investment climate
• Strengthening education, health and social protection
• More – and better – aid (including debt relief)