Projecting Global Marine Biodiversity Impacts Under Climate ChangeAPRIL IRUMS

Outline:

Marine ecosystems

1.Introduction2.Methods3.Results4.Discussion5.Summary6.Questions

Where is Global Warming going?

Source: www.globalissues.org

• Correlation between climate change and biodiversity loss

• Climate change rapidly affects biodiversity and marine ecosystem health

Introduction:

• Temperature changes have a detrimental affect on marine ecosystems

• Declining ocean biodiversity affects human activities like fisheries, costal lines and tourism

• Anthropogenic activity is largely responsible for global warming

Introduction Continued:

• Prediction: By the year 2050 a near 2 °C global temperature increase will affect marine ecosystems. Using various algorithms and computer simulations we can predict what will happen to the vast majority of marine organisms and their ecosystems.

Source: www.itmemes.org

Introduction Continued:

• Hypothesis: W.L Cheung et al hypothesize that many marine organisms in the sub-polar, tropics and semi-enclosed seas will experience local extinctions

Source: W.L. Cheung Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory

Methods:

• Obtained samples of marine fish and invertebrates: Included 836 fish species and 230 invertebrate species

• Chosen based on abundance according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Source: www.iisda.ca

Methods Continued:

• Using an algorithm (Sea Around Us Project), predicted occurrence of species (30 lat, 30 long grid) measuring richness and abundance

• Algorithms and models programmed to predict species movement into suitable habits as environmental conditions change

• Species hotspots were also predicted

Methods Continued:

• Models included three distinct climate change scenarios• 1) High levels of green house gases• 2) Medium levels of green house gases• 3) Low levels of green house gases

• Generated using “Geophysical fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration”

Methods Continued:

• A logistic population growth model assumed future ranges due to climate change: Takes into account• (1) intrinsic population growth • (2) Larval dispersal • (3) adult migration

Source: W.L. Cheung Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory

Results:

• Results show movement in range due to global warming. Movement occurs in the polar, semi-enclosed, and tropics region

Source: W.L. Cheung Aquatic Ecosystems R.L

Low species invasion

Medium species invasion

High species invasion

Results Continued:

• High intensity species invasion concentrated in the higher latitude regions such as: Arctic & Southern Ocean. This is the sub-polar biome Fig (a).

• Local Extinctions were very common in the tropics, southern ocean, north Atlantic, pacific coast and the semi-enclosed sea such as the Mediterranean, Red sea and Persian Gulf Fig (b)

Results Continued:

• Species turnover includes both local extinction and invading species was the greatest in the Arctic and sub-polar region of the Southern Ocean. Fig (c)

Results Continued:

• All data analyzed using pre-existing and developing software designed by W.L Cheung et al

• Mann-Whitney test p<0.001 used to analyze significance

Discussion/Understanding the results:

• We notice that biodiversity is the highest in high latitude regions indicating sensitivity to climate change

• Species richness declines as we move towards the poles

• When ocean temperatures rise, marine life moves towards the poles (also depends on species)

Discussion continued:

• A higher rate of local extensions will occur in the tropical regions

• Many tropical marine life have a distinct thermal tolerance

• Species strive to maintain optimal water temperatures therefore move accordingly

Summary/What can be done?:

• Marine organisms tend to shift their range drastically during times of increased water temperatures

• It is predicted that by 2050 our oceans will be drastically compromised

• Several foreign nations are now setting limits on the amount of harmful emissions that can be released into the environment

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