Global Warming and Insects

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Impact of global warming on insectsMuhammad Mohsin Raza

a, Muhammad Aslam Khan

a, Muhammad

Arshadb, Muhammad Sagheer

b, Zeeshan Sattar

a, Jamil Shafi

a,

Ehtisham ul Haqa

, Asim Alia

, Usman Aslama

, Aleena Mushtaqa

, IqraIshfaq

a, Zarnab Sabir

a& Aiman Sattar

a

aDepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Agriculture

Faisalabad, Faisalabad, PakistanbDepartment of Agri. Entomology, University of Agriculture

Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

Published online: 05 Feb 2014.

To cite this article:Muhammad Mohsin Raza, Muhammad Aslam Khan, Muhammad Arshad,

Muhammad Sagheer, Zeeshan Sattar, Jamil Shafi, Ehtisham ul Haq, Asim Ali, Usman Aslam,Aleena Mushtaq, Iqra Ishfaq, Zarnab Sabir & Aiman Sattar , Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant

Protection (2014): Impact of global warming on insects, Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant

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Impact of global warming on insects

Muhammad Mohsin Razaa*, Muhammad Aslam Khana, MuhammadArshadb,

Muhammad Sagheerb, ZeeshanSattara, Jamil Shaa, Ehtishamul Haqa, Asim Alia,

Usman Aslama, Aleena Mushtaqa, Iqra Ishfaqa, Zarnab Sabira and Aiman Sattara

aDepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan;bDepartment of Agri. Entomology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

(Received 2 January 2014; accepted 3 January 2014)

Climate change is the most debated issue of time-posing hazardous impacts on lifeon earth. Like other living entities, insects are also inuenced by rising temperatures,elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and uctuating precipitating patterns as range expan-sion, increased epizootics (insect outbreaks) and new species introduction in regionswhere previously these were not reported. Increasing temperature and elevated CO2have substantial impacts on plantinsect interaction and integrated pest management

programmes. Rising temperature leading to rapid development of insects and increas-ing the epizootics of harmful insects is a precarious threat not only to agroforestry

but to urban extents as well. By employing the proactive and modern scientic man-agement strategies like monitoring, modelling prediction, planning, risk rating,genetic diversity and breeding for resistance, the suspicions innate to climate changeeffects on can be diminished.

Keywords: insects; global warming; climate change; insect outbreaks; insect man-agement

Introduction

As most people know, a rise in global temperature is happening from last few decades.

Studies revealed that since 1850, 11 of the last 12 years are observed as the warmest

most. Over the last 100 years, average increase in global surface temperature is by

0.7 C while maximum increase in temperature of 25 C has been observed near to the

poles. Consequently, it is subsequent to increased ocean-water level which is due to

melting of polar ice, warmer and littler winters with prior onset of spring season and

later arrival of winter periods (Houghton 2001; Salinger et al. 2005; Collins et al.2007). Generally, the warming is due to enhanced emissions of greenhouse gases

(including methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorouoro-

carbons (CFCs) engendered due to burning of fossil fuels by human beings. For

instance, atmospheric concentration of CO2 has amplied by 35% over the last 200

years and temperature is predicted to be increased by 1.84 C from 2007 to 2100

(Johansen2002; Karl & Trenberth 2003; Collins et al. 2007).

Like other organisms, insects are also under the inuence of climate change. For

instance, according to a survey of 1600 insect species, 940 revealed the inuence of cli-

mate change. Due to earlier spring events, range limits of different insects are expanding

*Corresponding author. Email:[email protected]

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northward by 6.1 km/decade such as 35 species of butteries have shifted their survival

ranges 35240 km northward in Europe (Parmesan et al.1999). Moreover, in California,

70% of 23 buttery species have reformed their rst-ight behaviour as 24 days earlier

than they did 31 years ago (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006). Future turbu-

lences will depend on the global increase in temperature over the next 100 years. A sur-

vey of about 1100 insect species revealed that climate change due to global warming

engendered about 1537% of those species to extinction by 2050 (Thomas et al. 2004;

Hance et al.2007).

Global warming and insect pests

Biologically, insects are cold blooded having body temperature similar to their environ-

ment. Thus, only temperature can inuence on insect behaviour, development, distribu-

tion, reproduction and survival. It is believed that the impact of increasing temperature on

insects mainly overwhelms the effects of other environmental elements (Bale et al. 2002),

such as it has been estimated through models that with a 2 C increment in temperaturemight result in 15 additional life cycles per season (Yamamura & Kiritani1998).

Global warming, particularly increased temperatures, will bolster the insect popula-

tion which results in increased public health pests and especially insect-vectored dis-

eases. But it can also bring more severe climatic conditions such as longer and

additional droughts, more frequent storms along with increased rainfall and elevated

CO2 which will have adverse effects on plant growth and ultimately encourage insects

to attack (Karl et al. 1995; Easterling et al. 2000; Stireman et al. 2005). Furthermore,

due to warmer and shorter winters, insects will start breeding earlier (Bale et al. 2002);

principally insects of medical importance like mosquitoes are likely to be inuenced

potentially (Epstein 2001; Hopp & Foley 2001).Rising temperature have already exerted inuence on species distribution and diver-

sity. For instance, in the USA and Canada, mountain pine beetle catastrophic forest pest

has prolonged its range northward by about 186 miles with 1.9 C increase in tempera-

ture (Logan & Powell 2001). Elevated CO2 will increase carbonnitrogen balance in

plants, which in turn will inuence insect-feeding behaviour, defensive chemical con-

centrations in plants, competition between insect species and plant compensation

responses to insect herbivory (Coviella & Trumble1999).

Rising temperatures

Globally, the temperature is rising, and insects and plants are responding in several

ways (Table 1). It has been predicted through climatic models that average temperature

of globe would rise 1.84 C till 2100 (Johansen 2002; Karl & Trenberth 2003; Collins

et al. 2007). So, focus should be on range expansions of insects, arrival of new insects

to areas in which those pests were not previously reported and modications of ecosys-

tem that will allow some insects to reach extreme population level while driving other

species into extinction.

Range development

Northward migration of insect population has been observed due to rising temperatures.For instance, green stinkbug (Acrosternum hilare) in England and Japan has demon-

strated dramatic shifts of range of 185 miles in past 25 years with an increase of 2 C.

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Similarly in Europe, corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) has shifted northward of more than

1000 km (Porter et al. 1991). In the same way, Ediths checker spot buttery

(Euphydryas editha) has exhibited its population expansion northward in the USA

(Parmesan 2006). Furthermore, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has

extended its range northward of more than 180 miles in last 15 years in the Rocky

Mountains (Logan & Powell 2001) and now giving birth to each one generation per

year in place of one every two years (Parmesan 2006) and it is expected to occur in

Canadian pine forests. As similar range shifts have been detected in insect-fossil record

due to changes in climatic conditions these migrations are not astonishing (Elias 1994).

Change in frost pattern is one of the major reason behind range expansion (Fleming &

Volney 1995). Incidence of spring frosts decreases as temperature increases and the

resulting prolonged warmer periods enhance the period and intensity of insect epizoot-

ics. By planting earlier, growers can take advantage but these plants will then be acces-

sible for crop-damaging insects and allowing them to take a quicker start and possiblyadd surplus generations of these insects during typical growing season.

New insects

Due to hurried movement of people and goods, new insect species are arriving habitu-

ally to areas that are previously not reported to those insect species. However, rising

temperature results in the survival of insects in those areas where these insects could

not thrive previously. For instance, in the twentieth century, potato psyllid, a destructive

pest which migrated several times to California but usually persisted there only for a

year primarily due to winter-cool temperatures that enforced this insect to ight to Mex-

ico. Although, in 1999 or 2000, potato psyllid again migrated to California and estab-

lished a large, year-round population since that time and persisted there for the last

seven years. Resultantly, pepper, potato and tomato industries have undergone hefty

losses (Liu & Trumble 2007).

Ecosystem modications

Rising temperatures will bolster the survival of some insect species over others such as

a 3 C rise in temperature would decrease 90% offspring production of important antag-

onistic benecial wasps (Cotesia marginiventris), a common parasite of some caterpillar

species. Thus, minor increase in temperature leads to debilitate the population of thisbenecial insect and increase the damage by caterpillar species, and would likely to

enhance pesticide operations.

Table 1. Examples of how increasing temperatures affect arthropod species and arthropod-relatedsystems.

Increasing temperature leads to:

Increasing Decreasing

Insect Population Insect extinctions Insect developmental rates Invasive species introductions (due to rapid

migration of people) Migration up elevation gradients Northward migration Potential for insect outbreaks

Effectiveness of insectbio-control by fungi

Insect diversity in ecosystems Parasitism Reliability of ETL

Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection 3


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In contrast, rising temperatures will favour some urban and agricultural insects.

For instance, at higher temperatures, Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) are better

competitors than other ant species (Dukes & Mooney 1999). So, as temperature

rises, Argentine ants will likely disseminate northward, dislocating more inborn ant

species. Similarly, another insect named spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana)

will also prot from rising of temperatures as eggs laid by this insect is 50% greater

at 25 C rather that at 15 C (Rgnire 1983). Additionally, rising temperatures may

inuence the reproduction timing in this insect in such a way that might be no

longer affected by parasitoids which usually retain its population small (Fleming &

Volney 1995).

Logically, another outcome of rising temperatures is increase in the incidence and

amount of forest res. For instance, trees become more vulnerable to insect attack when

higher temperatures and droughts happen together such as in southern California where

this effect was observed early in this decade, bark beetle dead trees of thousands of

acres and fuelling enormous forestres. Consequently, some insect species are appealed

to re-damaged trees and their populations can be expected to upsurge if their food sup-plies increase continuously.

Subsequently, epizootics of destructive insect pest are expected to increase with

rising temperature and can lead to considerable ecosystem modications such as in

carbon and nitrogen cycling, energy ows and biomass decomposition (Haack &

Byler 1993). For example, when premature leaf drop or defoliation will occur as a

result of outbreaks, it would entirely change the specic nutritional composition of

leaf litter, thus inuencing the biomass-decomposing organisms success. But with the

existing research grounds, long-term effects are difcult to predict at such fundamental

level.

Raised CO2

Impact of increasing CO2 concentrations on plants is one of the most studied features of

climate change and global warming (Table 2). As carbon is the key element in plants

structure, raised CO2 let them to nurture more quickly due to rapid carbon assimilation.

For example, greenhouse growers are familiar with this for a long time and many add

CO2 deliberately to boost plant growth. Likewise, due to high photosynthetic rates in

raised CO2, scientists initially supposed that it would be a remedy to worlds food secu-

rity (LaMarche et al. 1984). Additionally, many crop plants would become more

drought tolerant along with having a more quick growth rate because in elevated CO2stomata do not open much.

Table 2. Illustrations of how growing atmospheric CO2 affects plantinsect interactions.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to:

Increasing Decreasing Carbon-based plant defences Effects of foliar applications ofB.

thuringiensis Food consumption by caterpillars Reproduction of aphids Predation by lady beetle

Effects of transgenic B. thuringiensis Insect developmental rates Nitrogen-based plant defences Parasitism Response to alarm pheromones by

aphids

4 M.M. Razaet al.


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Crop yields

Under raised atmospheric CO2 conditions, crop plants are likely to become more

drought tolerant and predicted to produce good yields even under disparaging condi-

tions (LaMarche et al.1984). But the prediction has not proven exact due to several

factors such as under elevated CO2, plants grow more and ultimately insects eatmore. For instance, it has been demonstrated through some early researches that

Lima beans (Phaseolus lunatus) photosynthesize better and grow more quickly in

raised CO2 concentrations along with 20% more attack by its primary pest, the cab-

bage looper (Trichoplusia ni). It occurred due to 28% less nitrogen-containing leaves

in contrast to plants grown in ample concentrations of CO2. Being animal, nitrogen

is the key element in insects body for its development. Plants grown in elevated

CO2 when have less nitrogen in leaves, the cabbage looper respond to eat more leaf

area to accumulate required amount of this key element. Such behaviour of increased

feeding has been demonstrated by several insect groups like beetles, butteries,

grasshoppers and moths (Coviella & Trumble 1999). Other potential factors for

reduced crop production can be adaptation to raised CO2 that decelerates photosyn-

thesis (Hollinger 1987) and rising temperatures that will reduce the crop efciency

in warmer areas (IPCC 2012).

Plant defences

Insects can be further affected due to disturbances such as plenty of carbon and lack of

nitrogen that bring other major changes in plants. Mostly there are two kinds of chemi-

cal defences in plants that save plants from insect feeding i.e. carbon-containing com-

pounds like tannins and phenolics, and nitrogen-containing compounds such as

alkaloids and cyanogenic glycosides. Carbon-based compounds decrease the insects

food digestion capability often by binding with proteins such as cotton having phenolics

that can reduce insect feeding. In atmosphere of raised CO2 concentrations, carbon-

based defences increase in many plant species. While nitrogen-based defences either act

as toxins and debilitate the insects or make the plants inedible by acting as repellents

like potatoes and plums having nitrogen-based defences and under raised CO2 condition

these plant defences become reduced. So, the carbon and nitrogen balance will poten-

tially inuence insects feeding behaviours.

Impact on cropsThere may be a vigorous growth of some crops in raised CO2 conditions, but there

is a trade-off because as temperature rises seed production may drop (Vara Prasad

et al. 2005). Droughts and oods linked with rising temperature will likely affect

some of the increased growth. Along those lines, an increase of 1.52.5 C in aver-

age global temperature will extend the range of pink bollworm (Pectinophora gos-

sypiella), though it is now circumscribed to frost-free regions of Arizona. Such

changes could result in subsequent crop damage (Gutierrez et al. 2006). Moreover,

pine aphid (Schizolachnus pineti) demonstrated increases population rate, fertility and

feeding at 26 C in contrast to 20 C (Holopainen & Kainulainen 2004). So, with

rising temperature diversity of herbivorous insects and their inuence on plantsincreases generally (Wilf & Labandeira 1999).



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Increased epizootics

Global warming will bring a number of disastrous events like oods and droughts and

these frequencies of such events will result in herbivore populations. Predictions of

increased incidence and extended durations of insect epidemics have been made for for-

est insects based on their previous studies (Volney & Fleming 2000; Logan et al. 2003).For example, in Norway birch forests, lepidopteran (Argyresthia retinella) outbreak was

observed and concomitant to high temperatures and droughts (Tenow et al.1999). Simi-

larly, increased range of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) has been observed in Nor-

way birch forests (Hagen et al. 2007). An outbreak of caterpillar (Thaumetopoea

pityocampa) on Scot pine was encouraged by warmer winters due to rising temperatures

(Hodar & Zamora 2004; Buffo et al. 2007). Epidemic of oak dieback disease occurred

in Japan due to encounter of this fungus with ambrosia beetle (Platypus quercivorus)

which has increased its range due to global warming (Kamata et al. 2002). Moreover,

warming temperatures are anticipated to bolster European pine sawy (Neodiprion

sertifer) and shoot beetle (Tomicus destruens) which result in excessive pine damage

(Faccoli 2007).

Impact on benecial insects

Pests and predators are potentially inuenced by temperature. With the modication in

temperature, behaviour of predators can be stimulated or dispirited. For example, below

11 C, reproduction rate of pea aphid at which lady beetle (Coccinella septempunctata)

can prey it exceeds while the situation is reversed above 11 C. On the other hand, at

higher temperatures the natural enemies of spruce budworm (C. fumiferana) become less

operative (Harrington et al. 2001). Due to global warming, herbivorous insects may

enlarge their ranges. Consequently, they could migrate to enemy-free areas where theirparasitoids may or may not track them. Monophagous parasitoids will be likely to most

extremely effected having difculty to adopt a new host (Hance et al. 2007).

Implications of global warming and strategies to mitigate the issue

Various models have been used to predict how global warming will affect insect ecosys-

tems. Some of these models have been used to predict the response of individual insect

pests to climate change (Logan et al. 2003). For example, CLIMEX has been used to

explore the response to climate change of various insects and pathogen

(Desprez-Loustau et al. 2007). Regrettably, many climatic models do not consider allimportant factors involved in global warming though these models have become as

sophisticated. Furthermore, predictions of currently developed climatic models do not

account for insect impacts on vegetation and mostly these models do not include the

impact of insect as regime change agent (Folke et al. 2004).

A little has been studied regarding the interactions of climate and disturbance

whether the impacts of individual turbulences like forest insects on forest function and

structure have been studies (Dale et al. 2001). Therefore, it is difcult to predict the

extent to which global warming will affect the magnitude, severity or frequency of dis-

turbances (Loehle & LeBlanc 1996). Much has been focused on the inuences of single

disturbances on host plants and climate but knowledge concerning climate changeimpacts on insects has been insufcient yet. Oftenly, the role of insects, pathogens, abi-

otic stressors and their synergistic interactions with host under changing climate scenario

6 M.M. Razaet al.


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are not included (Scherm 2004). There is consensus that climate change likely will

stress trees and increase their vulnerability to insects, pathogens and emerging diseases

(Brasier2005).

Modication in developmental rates of insects, host resistance, phenology and physi-

ology of hostinsect interactions will occur from global warming. For instance, plant

defences will be affected by elevated CO2 by altering host anatomy and physiology like

extra accumulation of carbohydrates in leaves, lowered nutrient concentration, increased

bre content, extra layer of epidermal cells and greater number of mesophyll cells

(Chakraborty et al. 1998). Tree density and canopy size may increase as CO2 increase

in atmosphere resulting in substantial increase in insect feeding (Manning 1995).

Here, we suggested different categories of management tactics to cope the issue of

insect outbreaks under climate change. Our coverage of management impacts addresses

only a portion of the full scope. We have focused on key points where we feel crop

health agents have the greatest inuence. Implementation of the discussed strategies will

differ, depending on the state of the science to bolster the activities, nancial status,

human perception and other existing resources, and what resource management aims areproposed.

IPM modication

Integrated pest management generally integrates chemical controls (pesticides), biologi-

cal controls (antagonists, predators and parasites) and cultural controls (sowing time and

resistant varieties) to decrease insects below population threshold that will result in eco-

nomic losses. Many of the pests can deal with enough exible IPM methods but the

desire is to reduce the amount of global warming (Socolow 2005). Mostly, growers and

researchers design IPM tactics to minimise detrimental environmental impacts whilemaximising economic returns (Trumble1998). Because insect populations will develop-

ment is more quick and faster at higher temperatures which result in hefty crop damage

quickly, IPM strategies should be modied to address the issue of rising temperature.

For instance, degree day models containing IPM programmes may need only slight

modication unless biological control agents include in the control strategies (Stacey &

Fellowes2002).

Monitoring

Monitoring the spatial occurrence patterns of insects in relation to annual weather pat-

terns and ranges of host crops and trees will inform adaptive management. By conduct-

ing systematic surveys of host-plant growth, health and mortality by skilled personnel at

regular intervals, the consistency of monitoring data will be enhanced. The efciency of

management tactics can be employed meritoriously for long-term management of host

crops and trees by coordinating monitoring data with disturbing agents (Sturrock et al.

2011).

Modelling prediction

With the abrupt variations in environmental conditions by global warming, it will be

difcult for professionals to depend on previous experiences and observations to planand predict for the future, otherwise must develop and use a diversity of modelling tools

(Sturrock et al. 2011). Climate models coupled with environmental envelopes such as



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those developed by Hamann and Wang (2006) provide a powerful tool to forecast the

potential range of changes across a landscape. Phenomenally diverse model such as

from vegetation to climate to disturbance agents, when well integrated can lead to effect

host-crop management under changing climate. The next step is to couple those chang-

ing environmental envelopes with the ecology of host plants and insects. Modelling

insects climate envelopes along with host reactions to climate can thus increase the

capability to forecast insect attack outcomes.

Risk rating

Risk- and hazard-rating systems are essential components of crop-health strategy and

should be in place, and applied, in advance of insect epidemics (outbreaks). As these

systems have proven to be useful when attempting to forecast future pest impacts due to

climate change, they should be a priority for crop-health research and development.

Relating historical occurrence with bio geo-climatic zone variants can be helpful

momentary.

Genetic diversity

Increased host-crop species and genetic diversity in combination with facilitated migra-

tion is one of the most effective, efcient and durable methods to maintain healthy plan-

tations in the aspect of climate change and global warming (Millar et al. 2007; ONeill

2008). Planting species and populations (seed lots) that adapt to future climatic uctua-

tions preserve the hostpest balance in the forest ecosystem. Facilitated migration of

host species provides an opportunity to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to

insects because most of the insect pests are species specic, so the simple act of increas-ing the number of species directly reduces the risks of outbreak, and assist to attain

management goals.

Breeding for resistance

Gene conservation will be critical as climate change, both for maintaining and enhanc-

ing the resilience of host species and for the hope of improving crop-level resistance to

pests (Yanchuk2001). Through breeding, insect and disease resistance, genetic diversity

and tolerance to environmental stresses can be promoted. As global warming bolstering

insects by increasing generation per year and range expansion (Bale et al. 2002), such

rate of climatic uctuations might exceed the current capability of breeding programmes

to face the drastic effects of these uctuations on crop plants. The unprecedented level

of uncertainty of climate patterns, host conditions and insect pests, signals to investigate

and adopt resistance mechanisms that will provide a general insect tolerance or

resistance to forest trees (Woods et al. 2010).

Conclusions

Global warming is a serious challenge to agribusiness and our ecosystem as its conse-

quences are hazardous to crop health. Rising temperatures will inuence the insect

behaviour, distribution, development, survival, reproduction, geographical rang end pop-ulation size and elevated CO2 on the other hand will alter the chemical plant defences,

parasitism, reproduction and insect developmental rates. Ultimately, these disturbances

8 M.M. Razaet al.


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pose hazardous impacts on crop health and our ecosystem. A proactive and scientic

approach will be required to cope with this issue. We recommend different tactics to

manage the insects under changing climate scenario: modifying IPM, monitoring, mod-

elling prediction, risk rating, genetic diversity and breeding for resistance. These strate-

gies can be a promising programme for crop-health management and sustainable

ecosystem from insects under changing climate.

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Global Warming and Insects

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