Global Warming and Global Warming and Agriculture in Oregon Agriculture in Oregon

and the Westand the West

Brent SearleBrent Searle

OR Department of AgricultureOR Department of AgricultureSeptember 2006September 2006

Some of Agriculture is Dubious of Some of Agriculture is Dubious of Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Published in a recent Oregon ag newsletter: From Dr. Bob Carter, James Cook University:“The essence of the issue is this. Climate changes

naturally all the time, partly in predictable cycles, and partly in unpredictable shorter rhythms and rapid episodic shifts, some of the causes of which remain unknown. We are fortunate that our modern societies have developed during the last 10,000 years of benignly warm, interglacial climate. But for more than 90%of the last two million years, the climate has been colder, and generally much colder, than today. The reality of the climate record is that a sudden natural cooling is far more to be feared, and will do infinitely more social and economic damage, than the late 20th century phase of gentle warming.”

If it is a Long-term Trend, is it If it is a Long-term Trend, is it good or is it bad?good or is it bad?

Mild warming and increased COMild warming and increased CO22 could could stimulate more plant production and stimulate more plant production and increase agriculture output, even in cooler increase agriculture output, even in cooler climates that cannot now grow fruits and climates that cannot now grow fruits and vegetables… ORvegetables… OR

It may cause prolonged drought, decrease It may cause prolonged drought, decrease of food output, and lead to significant price of food output, and lead to significant price increases for food. increases for food.

Crop Response to COCrop Response to CO22

The C3 plants (small grains, legumes, cool-season grasses, and most trees) usually respond more positively than the C4 plants (warm-season grasses, corn, sorghum, millet, and sugarcane). Responses also depend in part on environment (e.g., water and nutrient water and nutrient availabilityavailability) and in part on genetics.

OregonOregonThe good newsThe good news: Probably in a : Probably in a

good position with respect to good position with respect to crops grown here for modest crops grown here for modest rise in temperature and COrise in temperature and CO22

levels because the plant levels because the plant species here are largely C3.species here are largely C3.

OregonOregonThe bad newsThe bad news: :

Increasing competition Increasing competition for water!for water!

Water Makes the Difference in Water Makes the Difference in Agricultural Production Agricultural Production

Food and other agricultural crops are grown in Food and other agricultural crops are grown in many parts of U.S. only because irrigation water many parts of U.S. only because irrigation water is availableis available. .

Climate change Climate change maymay lead to less winter snow lead to less winter snow pack and snow that melts earlier, causing a pack and snow that melts earlier, causing a shortage of already-expensive irrigation water in shortage of already-expensive irrigation water in prime agricultural areas that supply the national prime agricultural areas that supply the national and international markets.and international markets.

IrrigationIrrigation

The agricultural bounty of U.S. production The agricultural bounty of U.S. production of fruits and vegetables simply wouldn't be of fruits and vegetables simply wouldn't be possible if the farmers tried to rely on possible if the farmers tried to rely on natural rainfall. natural rainfall.

It only rains 8-10 inches a year in most of It only rains 8-10 inches a year in most of the arid parts of the U.S. where these the arid parts of the U.S. where these crops are grown, and almost all of that in crops are grown, and almost all of that in the wintertime (snow pack).the wintertime (snow pack).

Rain that does come in these areas Rain that does come in these areas (Willamette Valley) comes in the winter as (Willamette Valley) comes in the winter as well, not when crops need it.well, not when crops need it.

IrrigationIrrigation

What makes much of our food and What makes much of our food and agricultural supply possible is irrigation -- agricultural supply possible is irrigation -- a large part of it from snow pack in the a large part of it from snow pack in the mountains, and distributed throughout by mountains, and distributed throughout by a vast system of irrigation canals and a vast system of irrigation canals and pipes.pipes.

Snow pack provides about 75% of the Snow pack provides about 75% of the West's water-- snow pack is the primary West's water-- snow pack is the primary reservoir in the West.reservoir in the West.

Options: Options: FightFight or or Innovate?Innovate? If we are to accept projections about global If we are to accept projections about global

warming, we need to prepare for a water warming, we need to prepare for a water shortage… shortage…

We can fight over an increasingly smaller We can fight over an increasingly smaller pie of water when it is needed the most…pie of water when it is needed the most…

Or, we can be innovative and begin now to Or, we can be innovative and begin now to study, design, and implement capture and study, design, and implement capture and delivery systems that adapt to changing delivery systems that adapt to changing climatic conditions.climatic conditions.

Adding to the Water PieAdding to the Water Pie

1.1. Water sequestration -- pumping it in the Water sequestration -- pumping it in the ground during runoff/winter for storage, ground during runoff/winter for storage, and pump it out during dry demand and pump it out during dry demand periods. (While generating energy?)periods. (While generating energy?)

2.2. Create more off-stream storage systems.Create more off-stream storage systems.

3.3. Create more on-farm ponds/storage.Create more on-farm ponds/storage.

4.4. Desalinization of seawater.Desalinization of seawater.

5.5. Don’t rule out in-stream storage systems.Don’t rule out in-stream storage systems.

Collaboration vs Collaboration vs ConfrontationConfrontation

Building a larger pie builds Building a larger pie builds opportunities for collaboration and opportunities for collaboration and benefits to many parties.benefits to many parties.

Attempting to divide up a shrinking Attempting to divide up a shrinking pie only creates more confrontation pie only creates more confrontation and battles.and battles.

COCO22 Sequestration Sequestration ODA and OSU beginning work on ODA and OSU beginning work on

literature review and identifying literature review and identifying research/data gaps in understanding research/data gaps in understanding carbon sequestration in perennial carbon sequestration in perennial ryegrass production…ryegrass production…

Discussions with the Chicago Climate Discussions with the Chicago Climate Exchange. $/ton needs to increase to Exchange. $/ton needs to increase to attract acres into changed management attract acres into changed management practices such as no-till production due to practices such as no-till production due to lower yields.lower yields.

These efforts require more research $$.These efforts require more research $$.

Other Opportunities for AgricultureOther Opportunities for Agriculture

1. Taking CO2 from the atmosphere and sequestering it in biomass and soils with appropriate carbon offset payments;

2. Changing agricultural practices on productive, established agricultural lands (low-till/no-till);

3. Increasing efficiency of farm inputs such as fuel, fertilizers, and pesticides (GIS/GPS precision application; laser and photo infrared plant ID, plant breeding and biotechnology;

4. Increasing production of agricultural biofuels (renewable biological-based energy fuels) to replace fossil energy emissions;

5. Improving Nitrogen use efficiency as the primary means of decreasing N2O emissions; and

6. Decreasing CH4 (methane) emissions by capturing or preventing emissions from animal manure storage and by increasing livestock production efficiency.

Bypass the PoliticsBypass the Politics

Identifying win-win approaches, such as Identifying win-win approaches, such as carbon sequestration payments and water carbon sequestration payments and water storage projects can leap-frog the debate storage projects can leap-frog the debate and politics of global warming and provide and politics of global warming and provide incentives to bring about management incentives to bring about management practices that accomplish goals that practices that accomplish goals that benefit everyone.benefit everyone.