Global Warming

Global WarmingSo What? .

Dr. Gene Fry .February 2016 . 1Climate Changes without Humans .Climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years (MY).Mostly, its been much warmer, with much higher CO2 levels.Eons ago, vast lava eruptions (Siberian Traps, etc.) put lots of CO2 in the air.When continents collided & mountains rose, rock weathering speeded up.This removed CO2 from the air, into silt & then the oceans.Himalayan weathering has driven CO2 levels down for some 50 MY.Algae, plants and seashells also removed CO2 from the air,making coal, oil, gas & limestone, as conditions permitted.CO2 levels were lower than todays during ice ages over the past 2 MY. Small variations in Earths tilt, and how round its orbit is, drive their timing.Solar changes* affect Earths temperature. .So do Earths natural cycles, like El Nio / La Nia. . .Still, summer 2012 was hot, as was summer 2011. .Will this become the new normal?Climate is changing 15-30 faster than than the old record, eons ago.* sunspot cycles.the sun slowly brightens,warming Earth more,by ~3C / 100 MY. Also,Map of 26 US Places . Consider 41 years of US daily high temperatures, June thru September, 1975-2015, in 26 cities scattered around the US.Jointly, these places have gained very few people since 1980 (0.03%/year),while US energy use per person shrank 0.28% per year. .Thus, urban heat island effects in these places actually shrank. .

BartowMacon Tupelo HoumaWaco Roswell YumaHanford Oakland Astoria ButteAspen NorfolkDuluth Moline Evans-ville Saginaw BaltimoreBostonNewarkHamptonBristol CantonRolla Elmira EnidUS Warming Graph .At +5.4F / century, in 2100 summer in Salina would be as hot as Dallas now.Warming at 10.0F / century, in 2111 it would be as hot as Las Vegas now.We should PREVENT this.+5.4F / century trend+1.3F /century+10.0F /century Consider Salina, Kansas,in the heart of wheat country,breadbasket of the world.3-YearMoving Average Over 1995-2015, Salina actually warmed 50% faster than the 26-city average. Hot as Las Vegas in 2090.Years till Las Vegas . The analysis was extended to 119 places across 45 contiguous states.The results were quite similar.5.5F / century over 1975-2015 and 10.1F / century over 1995-2015.(Compare to 5.4 and 10.0F / century for the 26 places.) Summer warming was slowest in the East North Central states.It was especially slow in an Alaska supplementary analysis of 7 places. It was fastest in the Rockies, West South Central & West Coast states.Since 1995, Salina has warmed 48% faster than the US average.

Heat in the Heartland, sponsored by Bloomberg, Paulson & Steyer, Jan. 2015 Las Vegas had 114, 99, and 115 days above 95F over 2012-14. If current emission trends continue, there is a 10-20% chance some orange area will be hotter than Las Vegas by 2100.

Humidity and much more heat make Midwest heat stroke conditions skyrocket. 3 days a year would be worse than any ever experienced anywhere in the US.

Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO) and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states. Winter wheat is barely affected.if current emission trends continueif current emission trends continueif current emission trends continueOver 100 years, Midwest summers can grow 10-12F hotter.Missouri, Illinois & Indiana grow hotter than Texas now.Iowa & Ohio get as hot.Michigan warms the most.It getsArizona hot.24-hour averagedaily highsSummary .Earths 100-year surface warming rateis 7-30 x the previous record.The last times CO2 hit 400 ppm(~4 and 14 million years ago),Earths surface was ~7 and 10F warmer than nowand seas were 65 to 135 feet higher.Kansas was Las Vegas hot &Florida was mostly under water.We should stop putting carbon in the air&remove carbon from the airas fast as we put it in now.So What?Pay ranchers and farmers to movecarbon from the air back into soils. Why?We already have too much CO2 in the air. Earth will warm 3-4 x more, vanishing Arctic sea ice (about 1F warming), phasing out coals sulfur emissions (ditto), receding northern snow cover (ditto-),receding Greenland & Antarctic ice (~1F, slowly),warming Earth enough so energy out = in (ditto+) & carbon emissions from permafrost, etc. (ditto+). Too much heat can cut crop yields in half. Give every American a $300 carbon tax creditPay for it with a 2 / lb carbon tax, . Replace CO2 regs.even if we stop emitting now.Blamerising 10% / year. each year.Carbon neutral is no longer enough.Tax bad stuff, so we tax good stuff (income) less.Rain Becomes More Variable .Rainfall becomes more variable.

Wet areas tend to get more rain than now.Dry areas tend to get less rain than now.

Around the Arctic gets lots more rain(&, at 1st, more snow, then less), butmid-latitudes (20 to 45) tend to dry out.

Worldwide, we get a little more rain, .except around the Arctic, we getmore hours and days without rain.

In other words,we get more downpours* and floods,yet also longer, drier, hotter droughts.but +2.6% / F* +3.9% / FWATERSo What?9Droughts Worsen .Droughts Worsen.

Deserts Spread.

The Culprit?

Evaporation

10Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse gases in theair (GHGs) intercept someoutgoing radiation andre-radiate it back down.This warms Earth more.More GHGs = warmer still.

Dark Earth absorbs sunlight.Earth warms up andradiates heat.Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Those surfaces dont warm Earth much.Changing a light surface (ice) to a dark one (water) warms Earth.Changing a dark surface (forest) to a lighter one (desert) cools Earth.Cyclic changes in solar output have warmed and cooled Earth modestly.By now, human GHGs warm Earth much more than solar changes do.11Greenhouse GasesGHGs warm Earth by 32C (58F).Earth would average 0F without them.Water vapor (H2O) does 2/3 of this warming.But H2O stays up for only 2-3 weeks, on average.Concentrations vary many-fold over time and space.As Earth warms up, evaporation increases H2O in the air.This amplifies warming from other GHGs a lot. So,scientists often treat H2O not as a GHG, but a feedback for other GHGs.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) does 52% of the remaining net warming.Almost all US CO2 comes from burning coal, oil & natural gas.Per unit of energy, coal emits 4 units of CO2, oil 3, natural gas 2.Methane (CH4, natural gas) does 30%. leaky oil & gas wells & pipes, permafrost, coal mines, wetlands, cows, rice, landfillsCFCs (old air conditioners, ozone hole) do 7%, other gases 6%.Black soot adds 20%, but aerosols (sulfates+) subtract 30-40%.nitrous oxide (N2O, fertilizers) 5%, (20% direct, 10% indirect: ozone) 12Vostok Ice Core Data .Vostok Ice Core Data For 100s of thousands of years, temperatures and levels of GHGs CO2 and CH4 in the air have tracked each other closely.

The difference between 190 and 280 ppm of CO2 was 10C (18F) at Vostok and ice almost a mile thick covering Chicago.

Warming led CO2 & CH4 increases by centuries, moving carbon from soil, permafrost and the oceans into the atmosphere.

Vostok data trends say that 400 ppm CO2 yields 7C warmer there than now.

Are lag effects on the way?

Thousand Years before PresentVimeux, Cuffey & Jouzel,Earth and Planetary ScienceLetters 203: 829-843 (2002) 2015 +ppm = parts per million ppb = parts per billion+ 2015 CO2 level ~ 400 ppm+ 2015 CH4 level ~ 1836 ppb13Lessons for Our Future from Ages Ago The ratio of C at Vostok to the global average is uncertain. I use 2.0: the ratio of North polar change to global, 1880-2014, according to NASA. Ice cores measure CH4 levels & are more precise. Pliocene & Miocene sediments dont yield CH4 levels. To use equations with CH4 outside ice age eras, one can estimate CH4, based on the ice age CO2 CH4 relations. With current CO2 & CH4 levels, the equations yield global warming of 6.4C (or 9.5C). But only 4.4C or 5.7C if CH4 followed a Vostok pattern. Neglecting CH4 (worse fit), just 3.7C. Warming how fast? 20-40% in decades, the rest over centuries.(10 K year resolution)4.0 - 4.2 Mya 14.1 - 14.5 Mya-110.7 + 11.23 * LN (CO2) + 7.504 * LN (CH4)-34.4 + .707 * (CO2).6 + .308 * (CH4).6-107 + 19.1 * LN (CO2) Vostok est. ppb CH47.5

6.0

4.5

3.0

1.5

0

-1.5

-3.0

-4.5Est. Global C from 1951-80384 461 554 665 798 957 1149 1379CH4 today ~1820 ppb.855 .846 .733 R2 for Vostok400 ppm in 20150 - .420 Million years ago Of the 3 Vostok lines / equations, the green one, and 2:1 for polar to world C, yields the best fit for 4.1 and 14.3 Mya.Estimating CSince 1750, CO2 up 42%CH4 140%.CO2 Levels in the Air ,

300 ppm(maximum betweenice ages)AnnualAveragesUp43%highest level since 14-15 million years ago (430-465 ppm)The deep ocean then was 10F or more warmer. CO2 levels now will warm Earths surface 5+F, 3F warmer still (5 - 2) worldwide makes dry Kansas summers almost as hot as Las Vegas. We face BIG lag effects. So far, half the CO2 weve emitted has stayed in the air. The rest has gone into carbon sinks. Seas then were 80-130 feet higher.(36%Since 1880)CO2 levels were almost as high (357-405 ppm) 4.0 to 4.2 million years ago.Sea surfaces then were ~ 7F warmer. Seas then were 65-120 feet higher.This means ice then was gone from almost all of Greenland,most of West Antarctica, andsome of East Antarctica.Current CO2 levels are already too high for us.not just the 2F seen to date.- into oceans, soils, trees, rocks.Sediments show East Antarctic ice then retreated 100s of km inland.5F warmer (7 - 2 already) is worse.Vostok ice cores suggest a 7F warmer world at 400 ppm.That much ice takes a while to melt.Darker land (& sea) without ice absorbs lots more sunshine - heat.The added heat accounts for most of the warming not yet seen:warmer --> more ice melts --> darker --> absorbs more heat.2/3 of West Antarctic ice is grounded below sea level;so is 1/3 in the East.(CH4up 110%since 1880)1515

Ocean Heat Content .Of the net energy Earth absorbs from the Sun, ~84% went to heat oceans to 700 meters deep.7% melted ice, 5% heated soil, rocks & trees, while only 4% heated the air. Levitus, 2005Since 2000, much of ocean heat gain has gone to below 700 meters deep, to 2,000 deep.Heat Content (1022 Joules)Now, we see, ~93% went to heat oceans, less to air and others. We notice air heating slower.1022 Joules =100 years ofUS energy use,at 2000-13 rate By now, the oceans gainmore heat every 2 years thanALL the energy weve ever used.I1991-2005 0.7 x 1022 Joules / yr1967-1990 +0.4 x 1022 Joules / year2006-2014 1.0 x 1022 Joules / yr = 16 x human useaccelerationIMMENSE heat gainSun vs Temp .- NASA- World Radiation CenterWatts / m2CSolar Irradiance at Earth Orbit, Annual AverageIn 2007, solar output was the lowest yet recorded (in 28 years), butGlobal Air Temperature, Land Surface, 3-Year Moving AverageEarths air temperatures (land surface) were the highest yet recorded.

C17Clouds .Half the sunlight reaching our atmosphere makes it to the surface.Barriers include blue sky (not black), CloudsClouds reflect some sunlight away, cooling Earth. They also keep outbound heat in, warming Earth, esp. at night.Low clouds cool Earth more than they warm it.High clouds do the reverse.Clouds cover a little more than half of Earth. On balance, they cool Earth, but Changes in cloud cover affect global temperature.So do changes in % high clouds vs low clouds.

Many factors affect cloud formation & distribution.At night & going up over mountains, air cools.Cool air holds less H2O,so it will often cloud up & rain.clouds, haze & the ozone layer.warming makes clouds sparser.18Sulfates & CoolingDark sulfates in the air block sunlight.Sulfates make hazeMore sulfates = cloudier = cooler.Most sulfates come from burning coal,SO2 goes up the smokestacks.GHGs stay in the air many years,GHG levels keep rising.Sulfates now offset 30-40% of GHG warming:As we stop sending up SO2,That cools Earth.& become cloud condensation nuclei.some from volcanoes.It changes to SO4 (sulfate) up in the air.sulfates usually for days.Sulfate levels dont.0.5 - 0.7C.warming will catch up.19Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming

CNASA GISS Earths7,000 weather stations- adjusted for urbanheat island effects Krakatoa erupts coolSulfate Levels in Greenland Icemilligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice(Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2002)401880200061 89 77 116 162 118Santa Maria,Soufriere,Pelee eruptcoolKatmai, Colima eruptSulfatesup 52%(61/40).SulfateCooling limitsGHGwarming.coolSulfatesup 46%.coolwarmingunmasked GreatDepressionSulfatesfall 13%.less SO2 up the stacks SulfateCooling offsetsGHGwarming.Agung eruptscoolmajor coolingSulfates up 110%.US SO2cuts start.warmingunmaskedSulfateCooling offsetsGHGwarming.El ChichneruptsPinatuboeruptscoolcoolwarming unmaskedSulfates fall 27%.sulfates still3x 1880 levelsBrown . cloud . grows over ..China,India. .coolCoal-Fired Power PlantsAir at the land surface has warmed19% faster than the sea surface.Air warms more when & where its coldest:in winter,at night,& especially toward the poles:10% faster than the global average at 40-45N,100% faster in the Arctic.Air in dry areas warms faster than wet areas.Heat evaporates water if available;otherwise it warms the air.Since 1995, Kansas warmed at 1.49 x the US rate.Even without more CO2,Kansas summers will become Las Vegas hot.1.19 * 1.1 * 1.49 * 1.8 (C to F) = 3.5F warming in Kansas for each 1C worldwide.21Earth Is Heating Up. Earth now absorbs 0.25% more energy than it emits a 300 million MW heat gain. 300 million MW This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960.Earth will warm another 0.6C .just so it emits enough heat to balance absorption.Air at the land surface warmed 1.27C (5-year average) in 100 years, 1.10C in the last 50 (1.43C since 1880).Air at the sea surface warmed 1.02C in 100 years At least 93% of the energy Earth absorbs heats the oceans. If it all went to melt Greenland ice, the ice would vanish in 30 years. .The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than ALL the energy humans have EVER used.One MW can power several hundred US homes.~ means approximately, roughly, is about equal to1C = 1.8F. = 20 x human energy use.(75 million MW)= 50 x global electric supply, so far,, 0.80C in the last 50.2222Tipping PointsReport to US & British Legislators - January 2006in the US, to Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

What would make climate change accelerate,so natural forces defeat our efforts to slow it?

Disappearance of sea icemeans more heat is absorbed by the water below.Carbon sinks fade in oceans & forests.Some become carbon sources.3Methane release from permafrostrevs up warming in a vicious circle. 23 HurricanesHurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains.Intense hurricanes are becoming more common.Higher hurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming.Stronger hurricanes bring higher storm surges and worse floods.

More Heat - So?

Emanuel, 2005

weakeststrongestWebster, 2005 All Ocean Basins CombinedEast of Caribbean, west of Africa6-18N, 20-60W24Carbon in the Oceans1/4 of our carbon emitted has gone into the oceans.Added carbon has made oceans 30% more acidic .(Oceans are adding acid 100 times faster than in a million years.)As a result, creatures find it ever harder to extract calcium from seawater to build shells.

Consider corals.Reefs of coral shells support myriad species, many billions of fish.Already, 60% of corals cannot form shells.At current rates, by 2100 ocean acidity would double or more.No corals could form shells and reefs would all erode away.

Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen.Fish & mollusks suffer.

The mix of sea creatures will change, a lot., so far.25 Reservoirs in the SkyMost mountain glaciers dwindle ever faster:in the Alps, Andes, Rockies, east & central Himalayas.65% of the latter shrank from 2000 to 2008, including 80% in Tibet.30% of Himalayan glacier ice vanished since 1980.

When Himalayan glaciers vanish, so couldthe Ganges River (Indus, Yellow, etc.) in the dry season,when flows already are only a few % of average.When Andes glaciers vanish, so doesmost of the water supply for Lima and La Paz.Mountain snows melt earlier.CAs San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US salad bowl) could dry up by July in most years.The Colorado Rivers recent 16-year drought was the worst since white men came..Comparing 2003 to 1986 and before, worldwide, . forest fires burned 6 x as much area / year. . US Wests forest fire area burned will rise 2-7 x / 1C warmer.2626 Earths Thermostat .Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast..

Minimum ice area fell 46% in 36 years, The bright ice could melt away by fall in 4-9 years The dark water absorbs far more heat than ice: .Greenlands net ice-melt rate rose 7 x in the past 17 years.So, the ice caps simple life expectancy fell from 60 millennia to 8.Its annual net melt-water is already 1/2 of US water use.Antarcticas yearly net ice-melt (W minus E) was ~ 1/3 of Greenlands. Its melt rate doubled over 2007-11. . Seas will likely rise 1 to 7 feet by 2100Seas rose 5 feet / century from 13,000 to 6,000 BC.& be gone all summer in 9-30.while volume fell 71%, 46% in the last 10.It has 9 x the ice.It will last longer.U of BremenThe ice got thinner too.

so far, like 20 extra years of CO2.PIOMASU of Washington As the ice recedes,Earth absorbs more heat.It will warm more,even without more CO2.& 100+ feet over centuries.Wipneus2727Methane Tipping Point?Thawing Arctic permafrost holds 5 x MORE carbonthan ALL the carbon humans have emitted from fossil fuels.In fact, it holds 2 x as much as Earths atmosphere.

Permafrost area shrank 7% from 1900 to 2000.It may shrink 75-88% more by 2100.Already, Arctic permafrost emits ~ carbon as all US vehicles.Part emerges as methane (CH4), changing to CO2 over the years.Thawing permafrost can add ~100 ppm* of CO2 to the air by 2100,and almost 300 more by 2300. Seabed methane hydrates may hold a similar amount,but so far they are releasing only 20-30% as much carbon. There may be far more permafrost carbon under Antarctic ice.55 million years ago, .from thawed Antarctic permafrost .warmed Earth by 6C over 4-10 K years, far more over the Arctic Ocean.

Warming now is 7-35 times as fast as then. * 100 ppm~ ppm fromfossil fuelsto date.scads of carbon& later CH4 hydrates2828Hot & DryFrom 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread. .Sub-tropic arid belts grew ~140 miles toward the poles, .a century ahead of schedule. .That means our jet stream moves north more often.In turn, the US gets hot weather more often.With less temperature gradient between the Arctic & mid-latitudes,the jet stream slows and meanders N-S much more: 1-2 K miles. . hot dry air lingers longer (heat waves)2011-12 was Americas hottest on record..Over September 2011 - August 2012, relative to local norms,33 states were drier than the wettest state (WA) was wet.Over 2012, 44 of 48 states were drier than normal. Severe drought covered a record 35-46% of the US . Drought reduced the corn crop by 1/4. .The soybean crop was also hit hard.The Mississippi River neared a record low.. What Else?, for 39 weeks.Record prices followed.Lake Michigan-Huron hit one., as does moist rainy air (floods).So2929Notable Recent Droughts .When I was young, the leading wheat producers were theUS Great Plains, Russias steppes, Canada, Australia, and Argentinas Pampas.Notable Recent Droughts.When WhereHow Bad2003 France, W Europe record heat2003-10 Australia worst in 900 years.2005 Amazon Basin once a century. 2007 Atlanta, US SE once a century2007 Europe: Balkans record heat, Greek fires,2007-9 California record low rain in LA.2008-9 Argentina worst in half a century2008-11 north China ~worst in 2 centuries.2009 India Monsoon rain down 10-20% in N & C-E (1901-2012).2010 Russia record heat, forest fires.2011 Texas, Oklahoma record heat & drought2012 US: SW, MW, SE most widespread in 78 years; record heatChina now #1 in wheat.#2 in wheat15K die.Wheat prices up 75%., 20-70K die.Record heat in 2013.hundreds die.US #3 nowhotter in 2012 All CA very bad in 13-15.Worse in 2010 Once a century droughts are now happening once a decade. Since 1979, Amazon dry season grew longer by 1 week per decade. Severe in Yunnan 09-13., S. Paulo 13-15.3030from 0.5% of todaysGroundwater .Over 1994-2007, deserts grew from 18 to 27% of Chinas area. .Desert growth is worse where the Sahara marches into Africas Sahel. . Yearly US groundwater withdrawals (irrigation +) grew, water use, before 1950, 1/5 of wheat is irrigated in the US, 3/5 in India, 4/5 in China. .Central CA loses enough to irrigation yearly to fill Lake Erie in 100 years. .Indias Ganges Basin loses enough groundwater yearly to fill Lake Erie in 10. .With more evaporation & irrigation, many water tables fallWorldwide, irrigation wells chase water ever deeper. . Many wells in China & India wheat belts must go down 1,000 feet for water. .Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province (China) vanished. . 92% in Hebei (around Beijing), Inland seas and lakes dry up:. . Lake Mead water fell 133 feet over 2000-15. Lake Michigan-Huron hit a record low in 2013, Lake Baikal in 2015. More rivers fail to reach the sea:Water3-20 feet a year.Aral & Dead Seas, Lakes Chad & Eyre.as water tables dropped below lake beds.Water prices rise.So, the Ogallala Aquifer, etc. dwindle.Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Rio Grande, etc.NoIs That All?50/50 its too low to use by 2021.to 5.4% now.Carbon Sinks Fading?Severe drought hit 45% of North America in 2002, so plants absorbed 50% less CO2.The Amazon Basins 2010 drought turned its rainforestinto a net carbon source for the year.Its emissions exceeded Chinas .Things will likely get worse this century, as Amazon forests dry out.Since 1979, its dry season has grown longer by 1 week / decade.Its trees hold 1/4 of carbon in fossil fuels burned to date: ~25 ppm.

Sea surfaces warmed 0.15C over 1997-2004, soplankton absorbed 7% less CO2.

Warming was far strongest in the North Atlantic.CO2 uptake there fell by half.However, the bottom line isthe % of the carbon we emit that stays in the air has not risen.Temperate and sub-Arctic forests have taken up more carbon.- for the 2nd time in 6 years.3232Phytoplankton .Phytoplankton levels in the oceans .fell 40% since the 1950s: . Findings are based on opacity of near-surface water.D. Boyce, M. Lewis, B. Worm, Nature 4/28/10 . 1These tiny plants form the base of the ocean food web.2Warmer layers on top inhibit cold water below from rising.Less turnover brings fewer nutrients up for plankton growth.3Plankton absorb CO2. Perhaps not so much any more.4They have supplied half the worlds oxygen.Earth has a 2,000-year oxygen supply, always being refreshed.

Some researchers questioned if phytoplankton are actually declining,or the findings are artifacts of data treatment. .D. Mackas; R. Rykaczewski & J. Dunne; A. McQuatters et al.: Nature 4/14/11Phytoplankton declined 30% in the Indian Ocean since 1999.Roxy, Modi, Murtugudde, et al., 1/19/16, using satellite chlorophyll data[probably]1% / year since 1979.33Turning Wheat into Cactus .In 2005-6, scientists calculated how climate would changefor 9 Northeast and 6 Great Lakes states in 2 scenarios:

#1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or#2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions).

By 2085,averaged across 15 states, the climate change would be likemoving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), ormoving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use).

Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country.330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City.650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Del Rio, TX.

2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there.Mesquite & sagebrush too.No wheat34UN Chief on Climate Change .Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity goes on with business as usual, climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of today's children.UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said I think that is a correct assessment. He added carefully If we take action today, it may not be too late.September 24, 2007

Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.IPCC Synthesis Report: November 1, 2014 35By 2059, Once a Century Drought Can Cover 45% of Earth.1969 Supply-Demand Drought Index 1999 .

Business .. as Usual . Emissions. .

2029 2059

DRY WET 0 1 5 16 36 36 16 5 1 0% Occurrence in Control Run in 2059 2 x CO2Fig. 1 in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, CynthiaRosenzweig, R. Ruedy, Potential Evapotranspiration andthe Likelihood of Future Droughts, Journal of GeophysicalResearch, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004.Climate Model:NASAGoddardInstitute forSpace Studies(GISS) +4.2C +14% rain

36Projected Droughts by Year .Fig. 2 in Rind et al., 1990

16%5%1%}Occurrence in Control RunOver 2000-04, the average frequencies are 18% for Drought and 33% for Dry.A weighted average for as dry as 11% of the time drought is ~ 27%.Based on Supply-Demand Drought Index2xCO22xCO2Once a century drought can cover 45% of Earths land by 2059.Projected Drought ConditionsLand Surface, except Antarctica June-August, Business as Usual Emissions37Droughts Are Spreading Already.

Earths area in severe drought has tripled since 1979.Area where rain is scarceincreased by quite a bit:3-6 million square miles.Evaporation increased,by a lot since 1987.from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NCAR], "A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-113010 million moresquare milesEvaporation at workCompare 30% actual severe drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide.Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.Compare 2002to 1979.combined effectDroughts spread, as projected or faster.11% of the area during 1951-80:once per 9 years30% = 16 million square milesSwitch from what could happen to what has happened already.38Very Wet Areas .The combined decrease was 6% from 1979 to 2002,but only 3% from the 1950-80 mean to the 1992-2002 average.

During 1950-1980, the precipitation effectmade 11.2% of areas very wet. Cooling(1957, 66, 77, 79) kicked that up to 11.5%.Once per 9 years.Rainy area shrank & grew.combined effect: decrease 3-6% (1-3 million square miles) Evaporation increased.Compare 2002to 1979.Over 23 years, the soggy area shrank by the size of India, more or less.20% = 10.6 million square miles39

RECAPSevere drought has arrived,Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of Asia.So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation. From 1979 to 2002 (+0.5C) .1) The area where rain is scarceincreased by the size of the United States.Add in more evaporation. .2) The area with severe droughtgrew by the size of North America.3) The area suffering severe drought tripled.4) The similarly wet area shrank by the size of India. as projected or faster.40What Drives Drought?The water-holding capacity of air risesexponentially with temperature.

Air 4C warmer holds 33% more moistureat the same relative humidity. (Thats the flip side of air cools. More moisture in the air does not equal more clouds.To maintain soil moisture,~10% more rain is required to offset each 1C warming.

Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), soless goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams).More water is stored in the air, less in soils.Satellites are already showing more water vapor in the air.Not quite all the water that goes up comes back down.

It holds less H2O, so it clouds up & rains.)41Droughts - Why Worry? .Droughts - Why Worry?

2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions) .

More moisture in the air,

Average US stream flows decline 30%,

Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%.

More dry climate vegetation:

The vegetation changes mean

Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%.

SWITCH from PROJECTIONS to ACTUALS. .Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994. . but 15-27% less in the soil.despite 14% more rain.savannas, prairies, desertsAngert 2005Zhao 2010Rind et al., 199042Crop Yields Fall. United States: 2059 Projections - doubled CO2 - Business as Usual Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great PlainsCorn, Wheat, Soybeans2 Climate Models (Scenarios) .NASA GISS Results Goddard Institute for Space StudiesYields fall 30%, averaged across regions & crops.NOAA GFDL Results Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LabYields fall 50%, averaged across regions & crops.CO2 fertilization not included . So things wont be this bad, especially this soon. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 will keep growing, eventually to 4.2 or 4.5C, but over many decades.

CO2 fertilization (2 x CO2) boosts yields 4-34% in experiments, where water and other nutrients are well supplied, and weeds and pests are controlled. That wont happen as well in many fields. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation grow scarcer in many areas. Other factors (esp. nitrogen) soon kick in to limit growth, so CO2 fertilization will falter some.Rind et al., 1990- 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th)(based on 4.2C warmer, 14% more rain)(based on ~ 4.5C warmer, 5% less rain)43Photosynthesis & CO2 .Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to[like blood]get it up to leaves, where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates,pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves, and[like sweat]cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues & proteins arent damaged.When water is scarce,fewer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, etc.) get up to leaves.With more CO2, leaf pores narrow, so less water evaporates.This slows water loss in droughts.But it also heats up leaves, harming plant growth when its hot.So, with warming, more CO2, and less water,leaves make more carbohydrates, but fewer proteins.44Warming and Falling Yields .Warming (92-03) cut Asian rice yields by 10+%/C.Warming (82-98) in 618+ US counties cut corn & soybean yields 17%/C.With more CO2, 2C warming cut yields 8-38% for irrigated wheat in India.Warmer nights (79-04) cut rice yield growth 10% in 6 Asian nations.Warming (80-08) cut wheat yield growth 5.5%, corn 3.8%.Crop yields rise with some warming, but fall with more warming. Warming helps crops in cool areas, but hurts in the tropics.For 1C warming, with no change in weeds or pests, in generalUS corn yields fall 8%, rice 10%, wheat 5-7%, soybeans 3%.Add CO2 (440 ppm) fertilization and irrigate .US corn & rice yields fall 2%, wheat rises 2%, soybeans 5-9%.But weeds and pests also grow better with warming & more CO2.For wheat, corn & rice, photosynthesis in leaves slows a lot above 95F and stops above 104F [40C]. Tropical areas suffer most:e.g., irrigated rice yields can fall 30% by the Ganges., if POSSIBLE (not too costly).45Heat Spikes Devastate Crop YieldsHeat Spikes Devastate Crop YieldsSchlenker & Roberts 2009 .Based on 55 years of crop data from most US counties, andholding current growing regions fixed,average yields for corn and soybeans couldplunge 37-46% by 2100 with the slowest (#1) warmingand plummet 75-82% with quicker (#2) warming.Why?Corn and soybean yields rise with daily highs up to 29-30C [84-86F],but fall more steeply with higher temperatures.Heat spikes on individual days have BIG impacts.Other crop future models use average temperatures.Thus they miss heat spikes on or within individual days.

More rain can lessen losses. Plants transpire more water to cool off.Growing other crops, or growing crops farther north, can help too.World Grain Production .80% of human food comes from grains.World grain production rose little from 1992 to 2006.Production per capita fell from 343 kilograms in 1985 to 306 in 2006.

UN Food & Agriculture OrganizationWorldwatch Institute 200647Crop yields plateaued .Million Metric Tonnes harvest by nation in 2011 (right column) are used to calculate weights.

Weighted average world grain yields per acre plateaued over 2008-12.

But they rose 7% in 2013, as the US rebounded to a record harvest.The plateau is consistent with spikes in food prices, and with forecasts of falling crop yields.

48World Grain Stocks .Any future food production increases will occur away from the tropics.In the tropics, food production will fall.

Soil erosion continues. Water to irrigate crops will grow scarcer, as glaciers and snowpacks vanish, water tables fall, and rainfall becomes more variable.

Satellites show that, since 1994, hot dry summers outweigh warm, wet springs.A world that was turning greener is now turning browner.

Grain stocks (below) were at low levels.

FAO: Crop Prospects and Food Situation49Farm Adaptations to DroughtPlant more drought-resistant crops.Plant smarter, like System for Rice Intensification. the roots cuts fertilizer & pests, raises yields & drought tolerance.Plant crops that rebuild soil carbon.Use much more drip irrigation.Cover reservoirs and irrigation canals to slow evaporation.Plant more wheat, less rice. Rice is water-hungry.Go North, young man!Mexicans to the US,Pakistanis to Britain, Algerians to France, Turks to GermanyChinese to Siberia,Colonize Greenland. Americans to Canada, Arabs to Russia, With less food, feed fewer animals. Eat less meat.Suck CO2 out of the air.More space between50Food Price Index .Poor people could not afford to buy enough food in 2007-8. . Malnutrition & starvation rose. Food riots toppled governments in 2011.UN, Food & Agriculture Organization: World Food Situation / FAO NewsWith food stocks at low levels, food prices rose steeply in 2007-8and 2010.Ditto 2010-11.

2002-04 = 10051Estimated Impact of +3C on Crop Yields by 2050from Chapter 3 in World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. by World Bank,

One of many studies,more pessimistic than average.for wheat, rice,maize, soybean& 7 other crops Mller, C., A. Bondeau, A. Popp, K. Waha, and M. Fader.2009. Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Yields.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchaverage of 3 emission scenarios, across 5 global climate models, no CO2 fertilization citing40-50% decrease for Iowa & Illinois52Deserts Are Already Spreading.50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1950-2002

The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. .The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing.Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. .

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-60Fig. 7 in Dai,Trenberth & Qian,Journal ofHydrometeorology,Dec. 2004-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 +2.0 +4.0 +6.0 -180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180 More negative is drier. More positive is wetter.See Spain, Italy, Greece.The USA lucked out till 2007.532 vs 4 Warming . 1.0C warming is here. 2C warming is unavoidable, but it is manageable.Holding warming to 2C, not 4, prevents these losses:3/4 of Gross World Product $42 Trillion ~ 3/4 of GWP 1/5 of the Worlds Food .2/3 of the Amazon Rainforest1/8 of the worlds oxygen supplyGulf Stream +West Antarctic Icecap .Florida & Louisiana, central CA, Long Island, Cape Cod1/2 of all Species . 4C warming threatens civilization itself.Details to follow: first 2C, next 3C, then 4C, finally 5C.5C is worse.emissions continue.0.6C more is in the pipeline+- Norfolk area, much of542C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e* . .(Waxman-Markey bill or Kerry-Boxer bill in Congress) . Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006 .(a report by dozens of scientists, headed by the World Banks chief economist) . selected effects - unavoidable damages .Hurricane costs double. Major heat waves are common. Droughts intensify. Civil wars & border wars over water increase:Crop yields rise nowhere e.g., Brazil soy yields fall 30-70%, wheat 50%, corn 60%. World Bank 2014Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible.If we play it right, melting takes 3,000 years.The ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh.It lasts for many centuries. We choose now how fast and how far.CNA Corp. 11 retired US Generals & Admirals, April 2007 Many more major floodsForest fires worsen.Deserts spread.more Darfurs.If we play it wrong, 300 years.* includes CH4, SO4,soot, O3, N2O, CFCs & fall in the tropics.5555 3C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e(McCain-Lieberman bill, watered down)additional damages may be delayed, possibly avoided . Droughts & hurricanes get much worse.Hydropower and irrigation decline. Crop yields fall substantially in many areas.More water wars & failed states. 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna, desert scrub.Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther and faster.15-50% of species face extinction.Water is scarce.Stern Review & CNA Corp.Terrorists multiply.Cox 00, Huntingford 08, Jones 09, Cook 10Lyme disease, West Nile virus, dengue fever too. Etc.Mammal extinction rates are already 200-500 x background rates.World is on this pace for 2100.Deforestation driving So Paulo drought. Nobre 1456. 4C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e..(double pre-industrial levels)(Bush proposal) further damages - avoidableWater shortages afflict almost all people.Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many.Entire regions cease agriculture altogether, Water wars, refugee crises, & terrorism become intense. This has begun: Somalia, Darfur, Rwanda, south Sudan, Mali, north Nigeria, Syria, Iraq.Methane release from permafrost accelerates more.The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons sometimes fail.Gulf Stream is shorthand for the world ocean thermohaline circulation, to which its connected.West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up.Adios to Miami, New Orleans, Norfolk & Venice by 2100,to Amsterdam, Bangkok, Canton, Kolkata, Saigon, Shanghai & Tampa by 2200.Goodbye also to parts of New York, London & Washington, as seas creep higher. At times in US SE, its too hot & humid to survive working outside long.Stouffer 13, Sommer 14, Kopp 15 .Stern Review & CNAe.g., Australia.We played it wrong.575C Warming .5C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e (Business as Usual Emissions) .

Deserts GROW by 2 x the size of the US. Eventually, wed gain US-sized polar forestsMuch of southern Europe would look like the Sahara. Agriculture would be destroyed and life would be impossible,over much of the planet. Lord Stern, 2009World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2.The result? Extended conflict, social disruption, war essentially,over much of the world, for many decades. Lord Stern, 2009Human population falls . to match the reduced food supply.It wont be pretty. World War 2 killed 60 millionOther species fare worse.The 6th Great Extinction has begun.a lot,US summer pace, by 2100, but wed lose as much to rising seas., but worldwide, it did not reduce population.For perspective,my extrapolation5858The Stakes .China faces extremely grim ecological and environmental conditions, under the impact of continued global warming and changes to Chinas regional environment.Chinas 2nd National Climate AssessmentDecember 2011

The costs of failing to tackle the climate change issue would be greater than the impact of both World Wars and the Great Depression combined. Once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement, in some future period, can undo that choice. British Prime Minister Gordon BrownOctober 19, 2009

Costs-----Costs of Inaction: including $120 billion ($400 / American) in the US for 2012 .Already 0.5 million / year die worldwide, . $100 Trillion . This exceeds GWP. .Unchecked, by 2100 warming will cost, e.g., India 8.7% of GNP. Asia Development Bank 2014 a HUGE hidden TAX: $50,000 / American$85 / Ton of CO2------ Costs of Action: Spend 1% of GWP ($150 billion by US), each year, 2%. Damages fall to $25 - $30 / Ton of CO2.World Savings ~ $2.5 Trillion, net from each years spending.Stern Reviewinflation-adjusted $, Business as Usual (present value$9-75 / year / American CBO, EPAnow $695 Billion/Year(more than 1% of GWP),+4.5 million from coal sulfates.(almost 1% of US GNP).Costs GROW over time.DARA,Watkiss / Hope,annualized: $2 Trillion / year(2%/year discount rate): 2005-2200)60SolutionsPut way less carbon in the air.

Take carbon out of the air,big time.61Take Carbon Out of the Air.(just 5-25% of rain soaks in now) 1 Rebuild rangelands Add soil carbon 10-20 x faster Deep roots, dung beetles move carbon into soil. Cut CO2 80 ppm. 2 Farming, done right, can add 1.5 - 4.3 GT C / yr to soil Organic farms add 1 T C / acre / yr to soil: Rebuild soil organic matter (carbon): from 1-3% now, to 6-10% before farming. Increase humus 3 Bury biochar shallow in soils: 4 Rocks have weathered for eons, taking 1 GT CO2 / year from the air. Move CO2 into crushed basalt, olivine or peridotite. Blow air thru millions of silos full of gravel, or scatter GT / year of olivine dust across the tropics, for $5-63 per ton of CO2.Absorb 1 T carbon / acre / yr.So 75-90% of rain soaks in.Speed up natural process 5 x.more soil carbon - stays eons, holds water., for $20-100 / T.with short rotation cattle grazing, like buffalo.with perennial grasses. , with fungi network & glomalinno-till, compost cover, no chemicals., holding water many months.Fungi network holds water.Take More Carbon Out of the Air.6 Add iron filings to select ocean areas. Algae must suck 8 x as much carbon from the air as our food supply does, just to break even. Dead algae may not sink. Additional fertilizers (K, P, N, etc.) may be needed. 7 Plant more trees.- for lumber, paper, palm oil, soybeans, ranches, fuelwood. .Trees need water, but evaporation leaves less in soils.8 Maintain forest soils: Below-ground carbon ~ above-ground (20-45N).(Permafrost holds 3 x as much carbon / acre as tropical rainforest.)9 Add silicates during hydrolysis at sea surface.10Take CO2 from the air with lithium carbonate to make carbon nanofibers.Algae bloom, suck CO2 from the air.Oceans may be too small,even if fertilization works well.Tiny critters eat them;soon carbon returns to air.Other problems will arise.Its a good idea, butdeforestation continuesDrought & fires hurt.Scrub CO2 from the air.humus, roots, fungi, bacteria, leaf litter.Geo-EngineeringThese dont slow making oceans acid.Wed need to keep using them forever.A Add Sulfates to the Stratosphere to block sunlight. Wed need a hundred flights every day to the stratosphere by big cargo planes. The sulfates would be only 1% of what we now put in the troposphere. But they would shift rain from one region to another drought in east Africa, etc. Still, sulfates from smokestacks now kill ~ 4 million a year. 1% of 4 million is 40,000 people a year.B Mirrors in Space to block sunlight Wed need half a million square miles of mirrors now, twice the size of Texas. Add that much in 30 years, and again in 50. Even if the mirrors are as thin as Saran Wrap, wed need dozens of space shuttle-sized cargo launches every day this century. Moreover, mirrors drift outward solar sails!C Create more clouds, or whiten them more.Smoke & MirrorsOnly $10 billion / year!Pollution shortens Beijing lives by 16 years.CO2 Emission Paths to Stabilization .CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes warming from CO2 & other GHGs, less the cooling effect of sulfates.+3C+2CHolding eventual warming to 2C may no longer be possible,Stern Review2006TotalWarming

-67%-75%-32%We already exceed 550 ppm CO2e for +3C. The paths assume NO emissions from permafrost or seabed methane hydrates,unless we take many GT of CO2 out of the air.nor lagged warming from vanishing sea ice & sulfates, nor warming so energy out = in.(400 CO2 + 365 other GHGs - 182 sulfate & soot+ = 583)65World CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuels32.7 Billion Tons in 2012 US DOE / EIA . .Does not include CO2 .from cement production. . China had .24 billion tons, .or 54% of the world total. .

The International Energy Agencysays world CO2 emissions . leveled off from 2013 to 2014. . In 2012, US fossil fuel CO2 came 42% from oil, 29% from coal, 29% from natural gas.35% came from electricity, 33% from transportation, 17% from industry.* Misc. = Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.

66CO2 Emissions by Nation, Year .CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels

Mid-East &Central AsiaIndiaJapanMisc. AsiaLatin AmericaAfricaCanadaOceania =Australia, NZ, Pacif. Misc. Asia = .Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.In 1992, Ukraine etc. to Europe,Kazakhstan, etc. to Central Asia.M-E & CA = Turkey to Pakistan & Kazakhstan (Billion Metric Tons)WorldChinaChinaRussiaEuropeUSUSSROtherAsiaOther1-Yr %2009 -0.72010 5.52011 3.52012 1.8China 1-Yr %2009 10.62010 9.22011 9.12012 5.1USDoE / EIAChinas fell 0.7% from 2013 to 2014. China Natl Bur Stats671900-2002 World Resources Institute1980-2012 US Department of Energy - EIA1950-1980 Oak Ridge National LabCO2 People .Rich Countries 62% 15% .Russia, Mid-East+ 14% 8% .Developing Countries 25% 77% .

.Poor .nations . believed .rich . countries .created .the .problem, .so .let .THEM .fix .it! . .. . .

The IEA says .world CO2 output . leveled off from .2013 to 2014. .

. In late 2009, China pledged to cut its CO2 intensity 40-45% by 2020, India 20-25%. for the1st time, Chinas electricity from wind grew more (26 TWh) than from coal (12 TWh). . China began CO2 cap & trade around Shenzen, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin & Chongqing. Their CO2 prices ~ CAs, RGGIs, EUs.In 2015 Jan-Jul, Chinas coal use fell 9% more.

(1900-2012)CumulativeCO2 Emissions1.32 Trillion TonsIn 2013-14,In 2014, China coal use fell, for the 1st time in years:In 2012,Chinas CO2 peaked in 2013, well before 2030.2.9% from 2013. CO2 fell 5% in Q1.68Americas Low-Carbon Revolution Has BegunUS DOE / EIAUS DOE / EIAUS DOE / EIAUS DOE / EIANet Imports

69Companies are set to cash in on green technologies.For example, .GE Wind Cree & Osram (LED lighting) Solar City (rooftop PV) Archer Daniels Midland (ethanol & biodiesel)Tesla (batteries, electric cars) Johnson Controls (energy management systems)Entergy (nuclear plants) Magna International (lightweight auto parts)Wheelabrator (landfill gas) Southwestern Energy (natural gas)Halma (detect water leaks) Veolia Environnement (desalinization plants). PV = photovoltaic. LED = light emitting diode.Meanwhile, the insurance industry has begun to act. Re-insurers Lloyds of London, Swiss Re, and Munich Re look to cut their losses by urging governments to slow climate change. Direct insurers like Allstate, State Farm, MetLife, Hartford are cutting back coverage in vulnerable areas, such as Florida.Nebraska insurance commissioners require planning for drought risk. Large investors (> $20 Trillion in managed assets) have pushed 100+ companies to disclose their climate-related risks to shareholders. Markets now value high-carbon emitting companies lower. Carbon disclosure raises stock prices for most companies. But coal companies $/share fell > 2/3 since 2011. In June 2015, 6 European oil majors called for a worldwide carbon price. 9 oil majors already use shadow CO2 prices, including $60-80 / ton (2030 & 40) at ExxonMobil, $40 (2013) at Shell and BP, $34 at Total, and $6-45 at ConocoPhillips.ExxonMobil was #1 target.70US CO2 Emissions, by Use .

trucks,airlines,buses,trains,pipelines,shipsUS CO2 Emissionsby Use2012: USDOE - EIA(US Department of Energy -Energy Information Administration)Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity(with a carbon cap) & personal transportation.71US Electricity, by Source & Yr .CoalNatural GasNuclearHydroMinorWindOilWasteWoodGeothermalOther GasesCentralSolarNatural Gas and Wind replace Coal and Oil.

7272The US Is Cutting CO2 Emissions.Pres. Obama pledged 17% by 2020 and 26-28% by 2025. Natural gas prices fell steeply from August 2011 to May 2012.Cheaper gas replaced coal - a lot - to make electricity. EPAs interstate transport rule* for SOx and NOx will makecoal plants operate scrubbers more and use low-sulfur coal.This makes coal power costlier, so less coal will be used.EPA has created rules limiting CO2 / kWhfrom new and existing power plants. Financial markets expect CO2 to be priced.Most proposed coal plants have been cancelled.Since 2009, 13% of coal capacity has been scheduled to retire. New cars & trucks must average 35.5 mpg by 2016and 54.5 mpg by 2025.** Hundreds of big companies save money by saving energy. Incandescent light bulbs began phasing out in 2012.New standards require ever more efficient appliances.

** DOEs mpg, not EPAs.So, actual mpg will be less.* on appeal atSupreme Court73Solutions - Electricity Price it rightCoal:Natural Gas & Oil follow daily loads up & down, but oil is costly. store energy in Keep methane (& chemicals to groundwater) leaks from fracking to very low levels.Wind - Resource is many x total use:Growing up to 35%/year,Wind turbines off the East Coast could replace all or most US coal plants.Solar - Resource dwarfs total use.Growing 30-70+%/yr.45 / day PV panel, battery, 2 LEDs, cellphone charger, radio sweeps off-grid Africa & India.Nuclear - new plants in China, India, Korea, US Southeast.Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle. More forest fires limit growth.Geothermal - big potential in US West, Ring of Fire, ItalyOcean - tides, waves, currents, thermal difference (surface vs deep)Renewable energy can easily provide 80-90% of US electricity by 2050. Replacing fossil fuel & nuclear power with renewables will save scads of water, butit may require 15 x their concrete, 90 x their aluminum, and 50 x their iron, copper & glass.To follow loads,low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons.Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process.US Plains, coasts - NC to ME, Great Lakes.its often cheaper (2.3-8/kWh) than coal. 6+% of US GWOutput peaks near when cooling needs peak.PV costs 4-20 /kWh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10.Use less.retail, for everyone:car & flow batteries, water uphill, compressed air, flywheels, molten salt, H2.NREL, 2012liquid sodium reactors?74 Solutions - Efficient Buildings +At Home-Use heat pumps.Better lights - compact fluorescents (CFLs) & LEDs.Energy Star appliances Insulation - high R-value in walls & ceiling,Low flow showerheads, microwave ovens, trees, awnings, clotheslines, solar roofs Commercial -Use micro cogeneration, heat pumps.Dont over-light.Use LCD Energy Star computers.Use free cooling (open intakes to night air), green roofs, solar roofs.Make ice at night. Melt it during the day Industrial- Energy $ impact the bottom line.Efficiency is generally good already.Case-specific process changes as energy prices rise.

Turn off un-used lights.- air conditioners, refrigerators, front load clothes washers honeycomb window shades, caulkingUse day-lighting, occupancy sensors, reflectors.Ventilate more with Variable Speed Drives.Check % IRRs.Facility energy managers do their jobs.Use more cogeneration.- for cold water to cool buildings.75Solutions - Personal VehiclesUS cars get 23 mpg. 7 Average 20. . Toyota started outselling Ford in the US & GM around the world. In 2014, new US cars & pickups averaged 26 mpg, vs 20 in 2007. .Hybrid sales are soaring, . In 2008, new cars averaged 37-44 mpg in Europe, 45 in Japan.To cut US vehicle CO2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. . GM already did it in Europe. .Lighten up, downsize, dont over-power engines. . Use CVTs, start-stop, VVT, hybrid-electric, diesel. .Use pickup trucks & vans only for work that requires them. .Store wind on the road, with plug-ins & EVs.HOW? Ditch SUVs.Charge them up at night.Pickups, vans & SUVs get 17.up to 94 mpg.EVs go up to 245 mi / charge.76Solutions - Other Transportation Fuels - Cut CO2 emissions further with low-carbon fuels?Save ethanol & biodiesel for boats & long-haul trucks & buses.Get ethanol from sugar cane corn ethanols ratio is only 0.8 or 1.3 or 1.7:1. Grain for ethanol to fill one SUV tank could feed a man for a year.Palm oil & prairie grass energy out / in = 0.7:1, up to 6:1.For biofuels, GHGs from land use changes DWARF GHG savings.Hydrogen has low energy density, is hazardous.Trains, Planes, and ShipsUse high-speed magnetic levitated railroads (RRs) for passengers.Shift medium-haul (150 - 800 miles) passengers from airplanes to maglev RRs (faster than TGV, bullet trains).Shift long distance freight from trucks to electric RRs. Big cargo ships use 2 MW wind turbines, hydrogen, nuclear reactors.Use cellulose?BUT Better microbes?Limit to ships, airplanes.(energy out / in ratio = 8:1).77Solutions - PersonalMake your home & office efficient.Drive an efficient car.Dont drive much over 55 mph.Walk. (Be healthy!) Carpool.Buy things that last.Eat less feedlot beef.Garden.Reduce, re-use, recycle.Ask Congress to price carbon.Dont over-size a house.Dont super size a vehicle.Combine errands, idle 1 minute tops.Use bus, RR, subway.Bicycle.Fix them when they break.1 calorie = 7-10 of grain.Less is healthier!Minimize packaging.Use cloth bags.Cut CO2 emissions 80+% by 2050.Include tax credits to take CO2 OUT of the air.Move carbon from the air into the soil.Tax carbon 2 / lb, rising 10% per year.Compost.78Effects of a US Carbon TaxChanges due to Carbon Taxfrom REMIs 2014 analysis, for the Citizens Climate Lobby

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MA = Mass. The tax modeled rises from $10 / metric ton of CO2 equivalent in 2016, by $10 / T annually, to $200 / T in 2035. Collect it at the source: wellhead, mine mouth, border (for carbon imports). Taxpayers get 100% of it back each year (= $ / Household or = $ / person). US CO2 emissions fall from 5.1 GT per year in 2015 to 2.6 GT in 2035. GNP is 0.2-0.4% higher over 2017-35. Jobs rise > 1% by 2025 (versus the no carbon tax baseline). Only the West South Central states suffer. Job gains are biggest in Health Care, Finance & Insurance, Retail, and Real Estate. Only Manufacturing (Chemicals & Oil) and Mining suffer. The tax saves 10,000 lives a year (mostly from air pollution) by 2021 and 14,000 / year by 2031. Electricity in 2035 is 6% (250 TWh / year) below the base case. Coal (1,500 TWh / year now) is phased out, mostly by 2025. Wind use grows 750, nuclear 700, solar 200, and geothermal 100, but gas falls 500. Citizens Climate Lobby advocates a US carbon tax. On its Boardare George Shultz, Jim Hansen, Katherine Hayhoe, Bob Inglis et al.300+ CCL chapters cover 430+ Congressional districts in 50 states. You are invited to join. Go to http://citizensclimatelobby.org. Gross National Product Gross Regional ProductsTotal Employment

tlQUESTIONS?1 CO2 levels now commit us to 3-5C warming, not just the 1C weve had so far. 2 That much warming is very bad for the food supply, etc. We sustain crop yields now by mining groundwater.3 We need a substantial & rising carbon tax, soon.4 We need to move way beyond carbon neutral. We need to move > 100 billion tons of carbonfrom the air back into soils and elsewhere, ASAP,to prevent 3C warming or worse.

Contact Dr. Gene Fry for more details, citations & references.gene.fry@rcn.comwww.globalwarming-sowhat.com

80Mini-References-15M years CO2, F, sea level: Tripati 09; 3-5 Mya: Csank 11, Dwyer 08. Jet streams big meanders now Petoukhov 13. CO2 levels: 1958-2005 - Keeling et al., 05; 1740-1960 - IPCC. Warming H2O un-dissolves CO2: HS chem text. GHGs & % effect: IPCC; www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.129.html. Sulfur 30-45%: IPCCSolar output: www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant. Cloud feedback: Clement 09.380 million MW heat gain = area of Earth x 0.75 W/m2 - Hansen 11. 0.6C in the pipeline - Hansen 05Temperature rise: NASA GISS: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/. UCS study: www.climatechoices.org/ne/Ocean heat: Domingues 08 (+1.8x1023J, 0-700m, 70-06); Lyman 10 (+1.5); Levitus 08 (+1.6). 1020J/yr US, 2x1022.Ocean acid: Wikipedia. Corals: oceana.org. Himalayas: Powell, Science News 0812. polar icecaps: Rignot 06 etc., NOAA 12Arctic Ocean ice volume: Wipneus 12, area www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/. Albedo Hudson 11. Antarctic, Greenland ice Shepherd 12Sea level rise: Summerhayes 09, NRC 10, NOAA 12. Permafrost: 4-5 x human: Zimov 06; shrank 7%: IPCC 07; rate ~ cars: Dorrepaal 09; to 2100, Schuur 12; & to 2300 MacDougall 12; CH4 hydrates: wikipedia, Shakhova 10. Antarctic: now Wadham 12, PETM DeConto 12; Ocean CO2 -7 & 50%: Behrenfeld 06, Schuster 07, Lee 09, Watson 07Subtropical arid belts moved ~140 miles: Seidel 07; Reichler 06. Severe drought cut CO2 uptake: Jacobson 07.Forest fires up 6 x since 1986: US - Westerling 06 Siberia - Soja 07, Canada - Stock 06. Up 2-7 x / +1C: NRC 11.Monsoon rain -10-20% Koll 15; Falling water tables, vanishing lakes, rivers Brown 06. China deserts +50% Globe & Mail 3/08Ocean pH - Turley 05. Land & sea carbon sinks fade - Jacobson, Potter, Wiedinmyer, Canadel, Le Quere - all 0733% > H2O in air at = relative humidity - Rind 90. 10% > rain offsets +1C - M. Parry 05 & Lester Brown.Tree biomass falls 40%: Overpeck & Bartlein, 89 (in Rind 90). Simulation: species not allowed to migrate north.Net biological productivity falls 30-70%: Rind et al. 90. Browning of Earth began in 1994: Fung, 05.Crop yields could fall 30-50% - Peart et al., Ritchie et al., Rosenzweig et al., all 89 (in Rind et al., 90) CO2 fertilization, greenhouses: Wittwer 92, Idso 01; open fields: Idso 02, Kimball 02. Groundwater USGS 13.Crop yields fall 10%/C rise: Peng 03; 17%/C (618 US counties) Lobell 03; Asia rice: Welch 10; wheat, corn: Lobell 11Overview of crop yields fall per C rise: Hatfield 11. Photosynthesis 35 slow, 40 stop: Wali 99.Grain: production - FAO, Worldwatch Institute; use - Climate Change Futures: Swiss Re & Harvard School of Public HealthFood price rises: FAO www.fao.org/giews/english/cpfs/index.htm, Brown (EPI) 08, Chicago Board of TradeDamages, 2-4C: Stern Review 06. $1.6 T/yr - DARA 12; $100 T (PV - Watkiss 06; $20 & $85/T CO2 - Stern Review 06Extinctions May 10. Mirrors & sulfates block sun: Wikipedia. Iron in ocean, e.g., Planktos Inc. (www.planktos.com) Carbon reduction costs - Stern Review 06. Green Companies - Smith Barney/Citigroup 07, 08; CERES 05, 06Coal oxyfuel process, 100 years of emissions storable underground - Metz et al. (IPCC) 05; Herzog, MIT, 0613% coal retirements: Thinkprogress.org. US wind MW & kWh % - USDOE-EIA. Wind & solar growth %/yr: USDOEAverage mpgs - USDOE EIA (Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.9). Hydrogen cars - Spessard 06.Ethanol: energy out: Pimentel 05, Shapouri 04; SUV / food: Brown 07; Land use: Searchinger, Fargione 08.Taking Carbon Out of the Air 1) grazing: www.holisticmanagement.org/; 2) farming: Comis 01, Smith 11, Rodale 05, Mitchell 15; 3) rocks: Lackner 02, Schuilling 14; 4) trees & soils www.onearth.org Spring 08; 5) www.carbonsciences.com.81Chart280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280280.0826102106280.1652447942280.247903758280.3305871092280.4132948551280.4960270027280.5787835593280.6615645322280.7443699284280.8271997553280.9100540199280.9929327296281.0758358916281.158763513281.2417156011281.324692163281.4076932061281.4907187375281.5737687645281.6568432942281.739942334281.823065891281.9062139725281.9893865857282.0725837379282.1558054363282.239051688282.3223225005282.4056178809282.4889378365282.5722823745282.6556515022282.7390452268282.8224635556282.9059064959282.9893740548283.0728662398283.1563830579283.2399245166283.3234906231283.4070813846283.4906968084283.5743369019283.6580016722283.7416911266283.8254052725283.9091441172283.9929076678284.0766959318284.1605089163284.2443466287284.3282090764284.4120962664284.4960082063284.5799449033284.6639063646284.7478925976284.8319036097284.915939408285285.1652694565285.3306347516285.4960959409285.6616530799285.8273062243285.9930554298286.158900752286.3248422468286.4908799699286.657013977286.8232443241286.9895710669287.1559942614287.3225139636287.4891302293287.6558431146287.8226526755287.9895589681288.1565620484288.3236619727288.4908587969288.6581525775288.8255433704288.9930312322289.1606162189289.3282983869289.4960777926289.6639544924289.8319285428290290.123961128290.2479752435290.3720423691290.4961625275290.6203357412290.7445620331290.8688414258290.993173942291.1175596044291.2419984357291.3664904586291.491035696291.6156341705291.7402859048291.8649909218291.9897492443292.1145608949292.2394258966292.3643442721292.4893160442292.6143412358292.7394198696292.8645519686292.9897375556293.1149766534293.240269285293.3656154731293.4910152408293.6164686108293.7419756062293.8675362498293.9931505646294.1188185735294.2445402994294.3703157654294.4961449944294.6220280093294.7479648333294.8739554891295295.1983906762295.3969147722295.5955723778295.7943635828295.9932884771296.1923471505296.3915396929296.5908661945296.7903267453296.9899214355297.1896503553297.3895135949297.5895112447297.7896433951297.9899101364298.1903115594298.3908477544298.5915188122298.7923248235298.9932658789299.1943420694299.3955534857299.596900219299.79838236300300.3307682512300.6619011944300.9933992319301.3252627662301.6574922002301.9900879373302.3230503815302.6563799371302.9900770087303.3241420017303.6585753216303.9933773747304.3285485673304.6640893066305305.2480737748305.4963493222305.744826806305.9935063907306.2423882406306.4914725201306.7407593941306.9902490271307.2399415842307.4898372304307.7399361309307.990238451308.2407443562308.491454012308.7423675841308.9934852385309.244807141309.496333458309.7480643555310310.6424266313311.2861845916311.9312766399312.5777055407313.2254740646313.8745849876314.5250410918315.1768451648315.83316.75317.49318.3318.83319.52320.09321.21322.02322.89324.46325.52326.16327.29329.51330.08330.99331.98333.73335.34336.68338.52339.76340.96342.61344.25345.73346.97348.75351.31352.75354.04355.48356.29356.99358.88360.9362.57363.84366.58368.3369.47371.04373.17375.78377.52379.76381.85383.71385.59387.37389.85391.63393.82396.48398.55400.9498102515

ppmvparts per million (ppm)CO2 Levels in Earth's Atmosphere

DatappmvYearCO2 ConcentrationD1740280.0001741280.000.0001742280.000.0001743280.000.0001744280.000.0001745280.000.0001746280.000.0001747280.000.0001748280.000.0001749280.000.0001750280.000.0001751280.000.0001752280.000.0001753280.000.0001754280.000.0001755280.000.0001756280.000.0001757280.000.0001758280.000.0001759280.000.0001760280.000.0001761280.083.0831762280.165.0831763280.248.0831764280.331.0831765280.413.0831766280.496.0831767280.579.0831768280.662.0831769280.744.0831770280.827.0831771280.910.0831772280.993.0831773281.076.0831774281.159.0831775281.242.0831776281.325.0831777281.408.0831778281.491.0831779281.574.0831780281.657.0831781281.740.0831782281.823.0831783281.906.0831784281.989.0831785282.073.0831786282.156.0831787282.239.0831788282.322.0831789282.406.0831790282.489.0831791282.572.0831792282.656.0831793282.739.0831794282.822.0831795282.906.0831796282.989.0831797283.073.0831798283.156.0841799283.240.0841800283.323.0841801283.407.0841802283.491.0841803283.574.0841804283.658.0841805283.742.0841806283.825.0841807283.909.0841808283.993.0841809284.077.0841810284.161.0841811284.244.0841812284.328.0841813284.412.0841814284.496.0841815284.580.0841816284.664.0841817284.748.0841818284.832.0841819284.916.0841820285.000.0841821285.165.1651822285.331.1651823285.496.1651824285.662.1661825285.827.1661826285.993.1661827286.159.1661828286.325.1661829286.491.1661830286.657.1661831286.823.1661832286.990.1661833287.156.1661834287.323.1671835287.489.1671836287.656.1671837287.823.1671838287.990.1671839288.157.1671840288.324.1671841288.491.1671842288.658.1671843288.826.1671844288.993.1671845289.161.1681846289.328.1681847289.496.1681848289.664.1681849289.832.1681850290.000.1681851290.124.1241852290.248.1241853290.372.1241854290.496.1241855290.620.1241856290.745.1241857290.869.1241858290.993.1241859291.118.1241860291.242.1241861291.366.1241862291.491.1251863291.616.1251864291.740.1251865291.865.1251866291.990.1251867292.115.1251868292.239.1251869292.364.1251870292.489.1251871292.614.1251872292.739.1251873292.865.1251874292.990.1251875293.115.1251876293.240.1251877293.366.1251878293.491.1251879293.616.1251880293.742.1261881293.868.1261882293.993.1261883294.119.1261884294.245.1261885294.370.1261886294.496.1261887294.622.1261888294.748.1261889294.874.1261890295.000.1261891295.198.1981892295.397.1991893295.596.1991894295.794.1991895295.993.1991896296.192.1991897296.392.1991898296.591.1991899296.790.1991900296.990.2001901297.190.2001902297.390.2001903297.590.2001904297.790.2001905297.990.2001906298.190.2001907298.391.2011908298.592.2011909298.792.2011910298.993.2011911299.194.2011912299.396.2011913299.597.2011914299.798.2011915300.000.2021916300.331.3311917300.662.3311918300.993.3311919301.325.3321920301.657.3321921301.990.3331922302.323.3331923302.656.3331924302.990.3341925303.324.3341926303.659.3341927303.993.3351928304.329.3351929304.664.3361930305.000.3361931305.248.2481932305.496.2481933305.745.2481934305.994.2491935306.242.2491936306.491.2491937306.741.2491938306.990.2491939307.240.2501940307.490.2501941307.740.2501942307.990.2501943308.241.2511944308.491.2511945308.742.2511946308.993.2511947309.245.2511948309.496.2521949309.748.2521950310.000.2521951310.642.6421952311.286.6441953311.931.6451954312.578.6461955313.225.6481956313.875.6491957314.525.6501958315.177.6521959315.830.6531960316.750.9201961317.490.7401962318.300.8101963318.830.5301964319.520.6901965320.090.5701966321.2101.1201967322.020.8101968322.890.8701969324.4601.5701970325.5201.0601971326.160.6401972327.2901.1301973329.5102.2201974330.080.5701975330.990.9101976331.980.9901977333.7301.7501978335.3401.6101979336.6801.3401980338.5201.8401981339.7601.2401982340.9601.2001983342.6101.6501984344.2501.6401985345.7301.4801986346.9701.2401987348.7501.7801988351.3102.5601989352.7501.4401990354.0401.2901991355.4801.4401992356.290.8101993356.990.7001994358.8801.8901995360.9002.0201996362.5701.6701997363.8401.2701998366.5802.7401999368.3001.7202000369.4701.1702001371.0401.5702002373.1702.1302003375.7802.6102004377.5201.7402005379.7602.2402006381.8502.0902007383.7101.8602008385.5901.8802009387.3701.7802010389.8502.4802011391.6301.7802012393.8202.1902013396.4802.6602014398.5502.0702015400.9502.400Keeling et al., Scripps, 2005WMOftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt

Chart1-0.4581849839-0.4658100157-0.509716865-0.5804620705-0.604552197-0.5221339621-0.5390271128-0.5284572498-0.4870447938-0.4970861741-0.5366916536-0.4906752152-0.4367686204-0.3868440901-0.3588440901-0.3337536792-0.2860495696-0.2414027397-0.2573150685-0.2619342466-0.3053565387-0.3488140729-0.3745455798-0.4164250318-0.4098792275-0.3875692642-0.384840497-0.4074980313-0.3693466277-0.3571088704-0.2892896923-0.2372294184-0.2249134366-0.2582100457-0.2754374429-0.2941607306-0.3330497941-0.304834269-0.2469602964-0.2150972827-0.2201206228-0.2138178606-0.1883329291-0.1778616962-0.1463798787-0.1712743469-0.1536140729-0.1638222921-0.1502370088-0.1774996482-0.129631155-0.1421571824-0.141184939-0.1182551538-0.0587592634-0.0609510442-0.0052405120.01668587470.02564477880.01285025830.04207347860.0124286998-0.0079055468-0.0067603413-0.0248001647-0.0597439329-0.0895521521-0.0917110562-0.1093515083-0.0801938768-0.0814431919-0.0580240138-0.0867796542-0.0759118048-0.0746953664-0.0401857774-0.02351807770.03536359010.03208139830.0209690695-0.0379157422-0.0644135789-0.0925067295-0.0967204282-0.116512224-0.0636383711-0.0193643985-0.0229863163-0.02721619880.03444956960.02580847370.0182851860.00036995280.04960805450.03615599970.08382723260.14803340070.27025548320.25420616810.30177329140.3054540010.2784368740.24188892880.29693002470.31994153750.35120877310.41473206080.46602521150.42957128530.3822145670.38211593680.39024196420.38484298230.44808047010.56267773040.60673800430.61084352120.65239592780.70357948950.6919246950.71115483190.77046849320.78790410960.79984383560.77373896250.79321019540.80133074330.80425677070.78796703350.82418149560.84409930380.84417875590.95363629010.99735273971.0523150685

5-year meanTemperature Differencefrom 1951-80 Baseline - CGlobal Air Temperaturesat Land Surface

DataGlobal Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) (Base: 1951-1980)YearmC: yrmC: 5-yr1880-.48-.421881-.44-.411882-.35-.461883-.37-.471884-.66-.511885-.51-.581886-.66-.601887-.70-.521888-.49-.541889-.24-.531890-.60-.491891-.61-.501892-.50-.541893-.54-.491894-.44-.441895-.37-.391896-.34-.361897-.25-.331898-.40-.291899-.32-.241900-.13-.261901-.12-.261902-.33-.311903-.42-.351904-.53-.371905-.35-.421906-.24-.411907-.54-.391908-.39-.381909-.42-.411910-.33-.371911-.36-.361912-.35-.291913-.32-.241914-.08-.221915-.07-.261916-.30-.281917-.51-.291918-.41-.331919-.18-.301920-.27-.251921-.16-.221922-.22-.221923-.25-.211924-.20-.191925-.24-.181926-.03-.151927-.17-.171928-.09-.151929-.33-.161930-.15-.151931-.08-.181932-.10-.131933-.23-.141934-.09-.141935-.21-.121936-.07-.061937.01-.061938.07-.011939-.10.021940.07.031941.04.011942.06.041943.00.011944.05-.011945-.08-.011946-.07-.021947.06-.061948-.09-.091949-.13-.091950-.23-.111951-.08-.081952-.03-.081953.06-.061954-.13-.091955-.11-.081956-.22-.071957.03-.041958.06-.021959.04.041960-.03.031961.07.021962.01-.041963.01-.061964-.26-.091965-.16-.101966-.07-.121967-.01-.061968-.09-.021969.01-.021970.06-.031971-.09.031972-.03.031973.22.021974-.03.001975.02.051976-.17.041977.22.081978.15.151979.20.271980.34.251981.44.30SUMMARY OUTPUT1982.14.31C from 1980 thru 2012, 5 Year Moving Averages1983.39.28Regression Statistics1984.22.24Multiple R.96593.8460483871F per 100 years, qorld land5-year 's1985.21.30R Square.93296.2354143864F per 100 years, 26 US cities3-year 's1986.25.32Adj R Square.93069.6048145161F per 100 years, Arctic3-year 's1987.41.35Std Error.05F per 100 years1988.50.41Observations311.6212521942US / Wolrd1989.38.47.649US / Arctic1990.53.43ANOVA1991.51.38dfSSMSFSignif. F1992.23.38Regression11.13223391131.1322339113403.482408610301993.27.39Residual290.08137847580.00280615431994.38.38Total301.21361238711995.57.451996.48.56Coeff'sStd Errort StatP-value1997.54.61Intercept-42.12511290322.1232192039-19.840209068101998.84.61Year.02140.001063726420.086871548601999.60.652000.59.702001.69.692002.80.712003.78.772004.70.792005.88.802006.78.772007.86.792008.65.802009.79.802010.92.792011.79.822012.78.842013.83.842014.89.952015.931.0020161.341.05

Chart5.35.555.15.44.755.45.35.14.84.64.554.54.84.45.24.94.34.24.24.544.14.34.142.933.43.12.92.2353.33556818183.25805909912.8397269844

AreaMillion Sq KmMinimum Arctic Sea Ice AREA .

DataAreaYearmillion sq km19795.319805.519815.019825.119835.419844.719855.019865.419875.319885.119894.819904.619914.519925.019934.519944.819954.419965.219974.919984.319994.220004.220014.520024.020034.120044.320054.120064.020072.920083.020093.420103.120112.920122.220133.320143.361.47%20152.839753.58%neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/09/historical-minimum-in-sea-ice-extent.htmlUniversity of BremenL. Hamilton from Cryosphere Today

Chart16.916.112.613.415.114.514.515.915.214.914.613.713.514.912.213.611.213.713.211.510.91112.210.810.29.99.296.57.16.94.443.24.63157894745.89473684214.9684210526

VolumeThousand Cu Km .Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VOLUME .

DataVolumeYearthousand cu km197916.9198016.1198112.6198213.4198315.1198414.5198514.5198615.9198715.2198814.9198914.6199013.7199113.5199214.9199312.2199413.6199511.2199613.7199713.2199811.5199910.9200011.0200112.2200210.8200310.220049.920059.220069.020076.520087.120096.920104.420114.020123.220134.620145.959.54%34.88%20155.054.00%29.40%https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomasWipneus

Chart196019608052618582738672709142799142739922901032296106529910682961087293119431511563001246316121630312413031348324133331514543381413323141831914963301552337147831516323421665343167834016183221565307170032817793371717320179733017273121777317171530118823261902326189131918823141861306190931018442961891300205532220493182011306213132222823362260.53272258328.19966206192347335.15591274942286328.00538415722525355.94732461482554361.7563758357

&APage &PMillion Tonsper capitaMillon Tonskg / capitaWorld Grain Production

DataWorld Grain ProductionFAO, via Worldwatch Institute, 2005YearMillion Tonsper capita1960196180526119628582731963867270196491427919659142731966992290196710322961968106529919691068296197010872931971119431519721156300197312463161974121630319751241303197613483241977133331519781454338197914133231980141831919811496330198215523371983147831519841632342198516653431986167834019871618322198815653071989170032819901779337199117173201992179733019931727312199417773171995171530119961882326199719023261998189131919991882314200018613062001190931020021844296200318913002004205532220052049318200620113062007213132220082282336200922613272010225832820112347335201222863282013252535620142554362Source: World grain production, from FAOSTAT, faostat.fao.orgwww.fao.org/docrep/013/al972e/al972e00.pdfWorldwatch Publication: State of the World 2002

www.fao.org/docrep/013/al972e/al972e00.pdf

Chart91818383796272798778646956576166807788847883968510112213011710196105103109101999198108114.0378378378114.1844919786108.3473684211100.728682170583.186046511665.959390862975.529702970384.272058823582.874396135373.170560747787.217128186391.570521480784.542680249478.901113068981.880931837879.5312590.3880903491

DaysDays of ConsumptionWorld Grain Stocks

DataMillion Metric TonsYearDaysStocksConsumption1960912038151961811828171962831908381963831938521964791948961965621599321966721899571967792139881968872441020196978228106919706419311081971692181150197256180117419735719212301974611991191197566219121219768028012731977772781320197888333138019798432814161980783081440198183331145819829638914751983853481501198410142815491985122518155319861305721602198711752716401988101449162119899643916771990105492170719911034831713199210951817371993101482173919949947617621995914361739199698487180819971085411821199811457818501999114585187020001085641900200110153419352002834411935200366356197020047641820202005844712040200683470207020077342921402008875212181200992557222120108552822772011795032327201282520231820138050923362014906032435

Chart114.8518757891114.1773699161117.0356002291114.8022713665115.9677296006117.1478892411117.0209238344116.8569169996118.7553831836120.4367091541119.1639895942121.5036681622121.1832284554125.690904799123.167368495124.8773744256125.5914140042124.8024526286127.7770318153126.0394207647125.2043052392128.387657282132.6168207725134.5130355713133.9829585169136.5528405648137.4474993371140.7208890882144.8415482664154.1132891444160.2788234256166.5515551486175.500131647178.4778351524185.3775855812190.9841021097199.7984642378215.3878927436218.2886004635217.3478924483218.5042356282224.3971417932220.4425723376208.8570771542196.7289161711172.5608892588157.2686958851148.129912887146.2921487929141.2964735981143.1047930833147.447887255157.5684909862158.1107213935154.2401029445159.499102023159.9183788693162.9690974179174.8718091328178.072361908179.9957162704176.0690060897168.511316757170.1658760573169.6417043046168.2203793072172.6683025995182.9984627582194.1852906552204.9967652821212.8641567944223.3098879283231.335326632237.9247264702231.9783408517234.8758490689231.6039361644233.4253036171231.2456896473230.6093448856225.0891368002215.8403686117216.4328736209210.7551086305212.8150175569215.6289850707215.9871152679212.9835869556204.7200.4212.9212.5215.7214.5212210.8210.3212.8214.7216.5214.4211.9207.5204.5203.7206.6205.7206.2203.2208.6213.8211.5210.4208.9203.9196.6192.7192.7191.3185.8178.9175.8171.5168.4167.2164.9164.2155.1156.3

FAO World Food Price IndexWorld Food Price Index

DataYearFAO World Food Price IndexJ20052005.00114.90F20052005.08114.21M20052005.17117.02A20052005.25114.83M20052005.33116.04J20052005.42117.15J20052005.50117.06A20052005.58116.97S20052005.67118.88O20052005.75120.49N20052005.83119.210D20052005.92121.511J20062006.00121.212F20062006.08125.713M20062006.17123.214A20062006.25124.915M20062006.33125.616J20062006.42124.817J20062006.50127.818A20062006.58126.019S20062006.67125.220O20062006.75128.421N20062006.83132.622D20062006.92134.523J20072007.00134.024F20072007.08136.625M20072007.17137.426A20072007.25140.727M20072007.33144.828J20072007.42154.129J20072007.50160.330A20072007.58166.631S20072007.67175.532O20072007.75178.533N20072007.83185.434D20072007.92191.035J20082008.00199.836F20082008.08215.437M20082008.17218.338A20082008.25217.339M20082008.33218.540J20082008.42224.441J20082008.50220.442A20082008.58208.943S20082008.67196.744O20082008.75172.645N20082008.83157.346D20082008.92148.147J20092009.00146.348F20092009.08141.349M20092009.17143.150A20092009.25147.451M20092009.33157.652J20092009.42158.153J20092009.50154.254A20092009.58159.555S20092009.67159.956O20092009.75163.057N20092009.83174.958D20092009.92178.159J20102010.00180.060F20102010.08176.161M20102010.17168.562A20102010.25170.263M20102010.33169.664J20102010.42168.265J20102010.50172.766A20102010.58183.067S20102010.67194.268O20102010.75205.069N20102010.83212.970D20102010.92223.371J20112011.00231.372F20112011.08237.973M20112011.17232.074A20112011.25234.975M20112011.33231.676J20112011.42233.477J20112011.50231.278A20112011.58230.679S20112011.67225.180O20112011.75215.881N20112011.83216.482D20112011.92210.883J20122012.00212.884F20122012.08215.685M20122012.17216.086A20122012.25213.087M20122012.33204.788J20122012.42200.489J20122012.50212.990A20122012.58212.591S20122012.67215.792O20122012.75214.593N20122012.83212.094D20122012.92210.895J20132013.00210.396F20132013.08212.897M20132013.17214.798A20132013.25216.599M20132013.33214.4100J20132013.42211.9101J20132013.50207.5102A20132013.58204.5103S20132013.67203.7104O20132013.75206.6105N20132013.83205.7106D20132013.92206.2107J20142014.00203.2108F20142014.08208.6109M20142014.17213.8110A20142014.25211.5111M20142014.33210.4112J20142014.42208.9113J20142014.50203.9114A20142014.58196.6115S20142014.67192.7116O20142014.75192.7117N20142014.83191.3118D20142014.92185.8119J20152015.00178.9120F20152015.08175.8121M20152015.17171.5122A20152015.25168.4123M20152015.33167.2124J20152015.42164.9125J20152015.50164.2126A20152015.58155.1127S20152015.67156.3128http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

DataEnergy Information AdministrationInternational Energy Annual 2005www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.htmlTable Notes and Sources2010: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2_emis/Preliminary_CO2_emissions_2010.xlsxWorld Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-20051980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122010% / yr2010% / yrJapan935.94922.79854.13822.91891.26887.44865.60878.22946.00975.331,009.061,027.101,041.141,026.851,087.311,075.501,105.111,137.611,098.221,146.891,190.161,177.701,185.791,234.151,260.681,245.521,239.891,254.441,216.251,104.911,180.581,200.271,259.06Japan3.664%Japan26.860.18%-81.05-1.34%India288.70335.02345.81363.76413.32440.37469.63482.48517.94548.82574.56616.27653.05684.33727.14862.18820.24862.23898.09953.62994.071,016.671,014.711,029.081,131.571,189.101,282.681,366.211,448.991,642.931,714.731,752.681,830.94India5.336%India833.395.34%506.537.36%Mid-East & C Asia600.31580.43615.19659.33694.46737.96780.96818.48850.67902.85932.91993.681,486.501,493.791,456.681,463.651,518.211,564.021,604.761,669.101,728.531,748.731,827.801,923.982,055.242,203.392,309.192,373.922,502.052,550.812,629.712,847.242,972.88Mid-East & C Asia8.274%ME, CA1065.434.08%426.063.60%Misc. Asia579.27591.13607.55637.70674.47701.59727.79762.63815.49873.32939.84992.011,043.361,157.101,220.761,311.581,421.291,482.221,414.841,529.961,589.741,651.661,747.681,822.191,893.901,966.752,000.742,061.002,118.562,176.582,350.052,505.772,525.47Misc. Asia7.172%M Asia796.943.37%312.412.99%1980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122010% / yr2010% / yrJapan.936.923.854.823.891.887.866.878.946.9751.0091.0271.0411.0271.0871.0761.1051.1381.0981.1471.1901.1781.1861.2341.2611.2461.2401.2541.2161.1051.1811.2001.259Japan.037Japan26.855.002-81.050-.013India.289.335.346.364.413.440.470.482.518.549.575.616.653.684.727.862.820.862.898.954.9941.0171.0151.0291.1321.1891.2831.3661.4491.6431.7151.7531.831India.053India833.393.053506.527.074Mid-East & C Asia.600.580.615.659.694.738.781.818.851.903.933.9941.4861.4941.4571.4641.5181.5641.6051.6691.7291.7491.8281.9242.0552.2032.3092.3742.5022.5512.6302.8472.973Mid-East & C Asia.083ME, CA1065.432.041426.063.036Misc. Asia.579.591.608.638.674.702.728.763.815.873.940.9921.0431.1571.2211.3121.4211.4821.4151.5301.5901.6521.7481.8221.8941.9672.0012.0612.1192.1772.3502.5062.525Misc. Asia.072M Asia796.942.034312.414.030

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8Table Notes and Sources

Other Asia0.93593599260.28869832040.60030540410.57927470670.9227941690.33502083120.58042607520.59113411540.85413287710.34581094450.61518578150.60754666740.82290722880.36375540910.65933170870.63770377230.89126460150.41331780860.69445966120.67447445750.88743553460.44036515460.73796123740.70158556860.86559714060.46963182090.7809581130.72779373280.87822288770.48247651690.81847826250.76262887930.94599974480.51793552690.85067244390.81548842050.9753312870.54882235440.90285385680.87332239641.0090623310.57455991790.93290782580.9398407381.02710212190.61627019590.99367889610.99200669221.04113595970.65305169711.4864982651.04335668461.02685307690.68433471891.49379016761.15709536261.08730773880.72713990821.45667893971.22076412681.07550241460.86217812871.46365104281.3115774881.10510699970.82024207481.5182139921.42129236461.13761073490.86222991211.56402242021.48222457411.09822473740.89809483031.60475528941.41484439031.14689268010.95361904991.66909961631.52995902251.19016272490.994067451.72852987271.58973916451.17769849761.01667144891.74872515421.65165789441.18578981391.01471099421.82780368111.7476813881.23415365121.02907973171.92397955821.82219106061.260675091.131571442.055242441.893902941.245515391.18909512.203391261.966752481.239889361.282681482.309189722.000744661.254440441.366213142.373923042.061001771.216252071.448991012.502045982.118557821.104913811.642933362.550808922.176583841.180576251.714728472.629708142.350053341.200268961.752675072.847242262.505769551.25905761.830938462.972876512.52547046

JapanIndiaMid-East & C AsiaMisc. AsiaOther Asia

DataEnergy Information AdministrationInternational Energy Annual 2005www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.htmlTable Notes and Sources2010: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2_emis/Preliminary_CO2_emissions_2010.xlsxWorld Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-20051980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122010% / yr2010% / yrLatin America852.34866.36869.99835.67876.88882.91919.48948.15958.32991.66991.561,023.571,043.171,090.781,137.781,168.431,225.841,288.071,335.191,338.531,368.471,387.851,380.841,403.081,451.701,524.261,585.511,613.591,672.891,618.881,703.711,781.321,853.20Latin America5.358%Lat Am414.652.17%178.452.24%Africa534.47533.88569.87594.73625.73641.15658.70674.80690.56695.85718.13741.00751.33768.38804.56817.88835.78860.53850.09863.97881.24913.67911.89960.271,021.061,055.991,062.361,086.091,152.381,145.851,156.731,168.661,205.70Africa3.603%Africa284.632.22%89.171.63%Canada452.17436.27417.58405.31426.57433.37425.84443.13475.87490.36468.89463.38483.32482.86492.80505.88516.95543.25547.91560.99558.44565.59586.45613.42612.91625.10597.23593.09574.24544.89541.46551.59550.83Canada1.727%Can5.500.08%-76.35-2.57%Oceania231.16229.00241.24237.40246.44257.00263.70274.36288.18300.66303.60292.97314.58321.51324.94330.10343.54374.86378.71399.56400.69417.65426.78430.62444.39468.66458.24481.07488.06486.72474.03479.68474.19Oceania1.460%Ocean89.051.65%-4.76-0.20%1980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122010% / yr2010% / yrLatin America.852.866.870.836.877.883.919.948.958.992.9921.0241.0431.0911.1381.1681.2261.2881.3351.3391.3681.3881.3811.4031.4521.5241.5861.6141.6731.6191.7041.7811.853Latin America.054Lat Am414.646.022178.452.022Africa.534.534.570.595.626.641.659.675.691.696.718.741.751.768.805.818.836.861.850.864.881.914.912.9601.0211.0561.0621.0861.1521.1461.1571.1691.206Africa.036Africa284.633.02289.172.016Canada.452.436.418.405.427.433.426.443.476.490.469.463.483.483.493.506.517.543.548.561.558.566.586.613.613.625.597.593.574.545.541.552.551Canada.017Can5.503.001-76.347-.026Oceania.231.229.241.237.246.257.264.274.288.301.304.293.315.322.325.330.344.375.379.400.401.418.427.431.444.469.458.481.488.487.474.480.474Oceania.015Ocean89.047.017-4.756-.002

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8Table Notes and Sources

Other0.85234256210.53446577240.45217223370.23116701850.86635993260.53388151360.43627131630.22900804950.86999120.56987390950.41757752750.24123962830.83567073150.59472648530.40530807980.23740730830.87687906870.62572781410.42656991890.2464380960.88291377630.64114514460.43337125490.2570039490.91947801590.65869595670.42583911520.26370209240.94815427030.67479907820.44312775680.27436242830.95832343590.69055755340.47586668860.28817879390.9916592050.69584582790.49035761940.3006572340.99155570050.7181336650.46889055490.30359572541.02357410090.74099762170.46337647510.29296755431.04316584530.75133345620.48332122640.31457924381.09078225490.76837878810.48286420280.32150526191.13778028150.80456117890.49279766020.32493634411.16842781750.81788495960.50588187