Global vaccine market features n trends

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  • 1. Global Vaccine Market Features and TrendsMiloud Kaddar Senior Adviser, Health Economist 1|WHO, IVB, Geneva

2. GLOBAL VACCINE MARKET MAIN FEATURES OF THE VACCINE MARKET ? NEW TRENDS SINCE 2000 ? IMPLICATIONS ?2| 3. Vaccine Market North South GAP Industrialised countriesDeveloping countries15%85%Population 7%93%BoD 82%3|18%Vaccine sales 4. VACCINE MARKET STRUCTURE 2010 World sales for drugsSmall size market : 2/3% of the global pharmaceutical market but VaccinesSpectacular growth rate : 10 - 15% per year versus 5-7 % for PharmaceuticalsUSUS shareNon- US AdultPaediatric4| 5. Vaccine segmentsHuman vaccines Pediatrics5|AdolescentsAdultsElderly 6. GLOBAL VACCINE MARKET:RAPIDGROWTH and CHANGING STATUS Tripled in value from USD 5B in 2000 to almost USD 24 B in 2013 Influenza vaccine market: estimated at $2.9 billion in 2011 to $3.8 billion by 2018 US : $1.6 billion in 2011 to $2.2 billion in 2018 Global market projected to rise to USD 100 B by 2025 More than 120 new products in the development pipeline 60 are of importance for developing countries Vaccines: becoming an engine for the pharmaceutical industry Changing status of the vaccines within the pharmaceutical industry New business model for vaccines is emerging? 6| 7. Main features of Vaccine market (2) Newer and more expensive vaccines are coming into the market faster than ever before Growing concentration in OECD countries but also newcomers (Pfizer, J&J,..) Vaccine development: increasing investment 7| 8. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS 2002-2007: Illustration8| 9. Overview of major vaccine related acquisitions (2005-2012) Target CompanyAcquiring CompanyInvestment MadeDate Announced1.Bilthoven Bio of Netherlands 2.Zhejiang Tianyuan Bio 3.WyethSerum Institute of India Ltd NovartisEuros 80MJuly 2012$ 125 M?March 2011Pfizer$68 bnJan 20094.MedImmuneAstraZenecea$15.6 bnApril 20075.ChironNovartis$5.1 bnOct 20056.CrucellJohnson & Johnson$2.6 bnSep 20097. ID BiomedicalGSK$1.4 bnSep 20058.Shantha BioSanofi Aventis$781 mnJuly 20099.AcambisSanofi Aventis$549 mnJuly 200810. IntercellNovartis$363 mnJuly 200711. CorixaGSK$300 mnMay 200512. PowderMedPfizer$230 mnOct 2006$214 mnNov 2007|9 13. ColeyPfizerSource:VacZine Analytics + Fierce vaccine 10. 5 large multi-national corporations make up 80% of the global market Major focus on new vaccine development for industrialised country markets10 | 11. Top product sales in 2010Brand name (producer)Type/composition2010 sales (US$)Prevnar-13 (Pfizer)13-valent pnenumococcal conjugate vaccine$2.4 billionProquad (Merck/Sanofi-Aventis)Measles-mumps-rubella and varicella combination vaccine (MMR-V)$1.4 billionGardasil (Merck)HPV$1.35 billionPrevnar (Pfizer)7-valent pnenumococcal conjugate vaccine$1.2 billionFluzone (Sanofi Pasteur)Influenza (seasonal and H1N1 strains)$1.2 billionInfanrix and Pediarix) (GSK)Infanrix = DTaP Pediarix = DTap-HepB-IPV (combination DPT-based vaccines with acellular pertussis)$1.2 billionSource: Krishan Maggon knoll ( | 12. Total sales First half 2012 VaccineCompanyH1 SalesUse1Prevnar 13Pfizer$1.847 billionPneumococcal infection2PENTAct-HIBSanofi$672 millionDiphtheria, Pertussis/whooping cough; Tetanus; Polio; Haemophilus influenza type b3GardasilMerck & Co$608 millionhuman papillomavirus (HPV)4PediarixGlaxoSmithKline$535 millionDiphtheria; Tetanus; Pertussis/whooping cough; Hepatitis B; Polio5Hepatitis Vaccine FranchiseGlaxoSmithKline$500 millionHepatitis A; Hepatitis B6CelturaNovartis$441 millionSwine flu7VarivaxMerck & Co.$392 millionVaricella virus8CervarixGlaxoSmithKline$285 millionHPV9RotaTeqMerck & Co.$284 millionRotaviral gastroenteritis10SynflorixGlaxoSmithKline$274 millionPneumococcal infection; Otitis media11RotarixGlaxoSmithKline$266 millionRotaviral gastroenteritis12 | 13. Total sales First half 2012 (2) 12Vaccine ZostavaxCompany Merck & Co.H1 Sales $224 millionUse Shingles; Herpes13Prevnar 7Pfizer$222 millionPneumococcal infection; Otitis media14Fluzone/VaxigripSanofi$219 millionInfluenza15MenactraSanofi$217 millionMeningitis16PneumovaxMerck & Co.$213 millionPneumococcal infection17AdacelSanofi$207 millionDiphtheria; Pertussis/whooping cough; Tetanus18MMR-IIMerck & Co.$180 millionMeasles, Mumps, Rubella19BoostrixGlaxoSmithKline $165 millionDiphtheria; Tetanus; Pertussis/whooping cough20BiothraxEmergent BioSolutionsAnthrax$88 millionSources: EvaluatePharma; Fiercevaccines, Sep 201213 | 14. VACCINE MARKET : GROWTH FACTORS ? Combination of : - Importance of communicable diseases and new threats - Cost effectiveness of immunizations - New funding opportunities (Gov, PPP, donors, Foundations,..) - New research techniques and manufacturing technologies - Increasing demand, new target population, larger emerging markets- Higher prices, improved profitability for the industry (blockbuster vaccines..)14 | 15. Developing countries: vaccine market share and trends15 |EPI SEMINAR APRIL 2008 16. Developing country market 80 % of population / less than 20% of global market Regular and rapid growth in volume and dollar valueEmerging economies and markets16 |UN marketPrivate sector in Low and Middle income countries 17. MNC : Key strategies for developing countries Emerging economies UN markets 3 main (UNICEF/GAVI and PAHO) targets: Private sector, middle income group markets17 | 18. Arrangements with emerging economies and manufacturers Various types of arrangments, contracts and partnerships Taking into account country potentials and particularities: size of population and potential market, legislation favouring or not domestic production and TT, production costs, scientific and technical capacity, price regulation, NIP, immunization in the private sector, regional influence,.. Directly with countries and local manufacturers or through PPP or PDP 18 | 19. Various types of arrangements Objectives: lower costs, increase production capacity, competitive position access to large public and private market, Outsourcing marketing and distributionLabelling, filling, bulk,..Acquisition and absorption of local firmsCration of local branches19 | 20. A new trend: more active vaccine marketing in DC Emerging markets such as Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Russia, China and India are among key priorities for MNC Singapour, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, Egypt, GCC and others: second line Wide licensing and registration of new and innovative vaccines Increased presence of sale forces and MNC representatives : "pharma like model"20 | 21. New business MNC model is emerging? More mapping, market segmentation and price differentiation Outsourcing selected part of R&D, production and commercialization/Access to promising markets and local capacities, low costs Risk sharing with countries and funders Collaborative networks and active presence at GHIs21 | 22. UN Market: UNICEF and PAHO Spectacular increase in the last 10 yearsBoth UNICEF SD and PAHOPolio, measles, new vaccinesNational, regional and global priority MDGs, GIVS, GAVI, AMC, IFFim, GPEI, Measles partnership, BMGF, DOV/GVAP 22 | 23. UN MARKET (in value) 20022011%UNICEF SD$ 220 million$ 1,03 Billion+ 468%PAHO RF$ 120 million$ 400 million+ 333%Total$ 340 million$1,430 billion+ 420%Around 7, 5 % of total vaccine sales 23 |Sources: our WHO estimates based on UNICEF SD and PAHO RF data 24. UNICEF annual vaccine procurement has increased five fold since 2000 supporting UNICEF Programmes and on behalf of Partners, Global Programmes, Governments and NGOs UNICEF SD Annual procurement value of vaccines, in million USD$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $1001978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010$0The arrows indicate the main programme drivers for the increased procurement value. Source UNICEF Supply Division24 | 25. The UNICEF 2012: buying 50% of the global volume of vaccine doses, mainly EPI vaccines, but representing only 5% of total market valueGlobal Volume of DosesGlobal Value of Doses50% 5% 25 |Sources. UNICEF SD 26. EMERGING MANUFACTURERS ARE PLAYING AN ACTIVE ROLE MexicoCuba Birmex CIGB Instituto Finlay Bio-Manguinhos Butantan Institute26 |Chengdu Shanghai (SIBP) Sinovac Shenzhen AVP Shenzhen Kangtai Berna Green Cross (Berna) LG Life Sciences China (LG) S. KoreaIndia IndonesiaBrazil Biofarma Panacea Biotec Shantha Biotechnics Bharat Biotech Biological E (BE) Serum Inst. of India 27. YearTotal # Pre-Qualified Vaccines (excluding pandemic influenza)# Pre-Qualified Vaccines by Emerging Manufacturers% of Pre-Qualified Vaccines by Emerging Manufacturers# Emerging Manufacturer Countries with Functional NRA's(excluding pandemic influenza)2003662132.3%62006733142.5%62009984748.0%620101025049.0%7Number of Pre-Qualified Vaccines by Year with Shares from Emerging Manufacturers100 (exluding pandemic influenza)Number of Pre-Qualified Vaccines12080 Total # Pre-Qualified Vaccines 60# Pre-Qualified Vaccines by Emerging Manufacturers40200 200320062009 YearSource: WHO-IVB-QSS. As of September 6, 20102010 28. UNICEF SD Emerging vs. Industrialized manufacturersEmerging Market Country Manufacturers make up approximately 50% of procurement volumes in 2010 and 30% by value, predominantly due to lower but increasing participation in new vaccine markets and differing cost basesBy Volume28 |By Value28 *2010 2012 Data based on awards already made by UNICEF 29. Growth of the PAHO Revolving Fund 600 IntroductionRotavirus Introduced Influenza IntroducedPenta, YF Introduced500 400$US (millions)Additional Countries300 200MMR Introduced100 091 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Expenditure29 |YearsCapitalization 30. The PAHO Revolving Fund Update: 2012 60 products 28 antigens39 countries & territoriesExpected P