Global Trends Pharma Report 8042008

© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.

Dow Jones Insight Global Pharmaceutical Media Analysis

FPO – cover not final

2Proprietary and Confidential |© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.

Table of Contents

Introduction and Report Overview …………………………… 3

Global Players and Competetitive Trends…………………… 4

12

18

23

24

25

CEO Coverage……………………………………………………..

Industry Issue Analysis………………………………………….

Summary……………………………………………………………

Methodology……………………………………………………….

About Dow Jones Insight………………………………………..


This report was created using Dow Jones Insight’s media analysis platform to highlight media interest in the global pharmaceutical industry. It is intended as a sample only, as client engagements are customized and based on even more detail, depth and focus.

Our analysis discusses the bleak news coverage in 2007 and deals with issues such as: sector job losses, pipeline gaps, threats from the generics industry, tumbling sector profits, drugs withdrawals and some drugs passing muster with increasingly tough global industry regulators.

Dow Jones Insight Media Analysis Report


Section I: Global Players and Competitive Trends


Merck Q1 profits up

Merck Q2 profits up 12% and sales 13%; strong sales of cholesterol, cervical cancer and diabetes drugs; Schering-Plough JV powering ahead

Merck Q3 profits up 62%; FDA backs Isentress; Januvia and Gardasil selling better than expected

Merck – Vioxx lawsuit settlement proposal limit set at $4.85 billion

Pfizer losing 10,000 jobs worldwide

Pfizer results down 18% – ‘sick man of the industry’

Pfizer turns off the taps on its Exubera insulin drug; Q3 down 77% on associated charges; rumours mount that Pfizer planning to buy Sanofi

GSK – ‘Avandia increases risks of heart attacks’controversy

GSK – Andrew Witty to replace JP Garnier; GSK taking U.S. patent office to court over restrictions

Competitive Trends | Company Analysis Part 1


Novartis net rises 11% in Q1, driven by strong sales of hypertension and cancer drugs; takes charge on Zelnorm; sells Gerber food business to Nestle

Novartis – Q2 profits up but cuts sales outlook; shares downgraded on ‘prospects,’but Sandoz generic drugs units sees double-digit growth

AstraZeneca – faces patent battle in U.S. over Crestor; pretax profits down 14%; cutting inventory to lift concerns

Sanofi-Aventis –generics dent Q4 profit

Sanofi-Aventis – Plavix patent ruling in favour but Zimulti diet drug rejected by FDA

Sanofi-Aventis – to invest $70 million in China flu vaccine plant; class action over Zimulti; L’Oreal cuts stake

Roche $3 billion takeover bid for Ventana Medical Systems

AstraZeneca – Buys MedImmune ($16 billion) vaccines company to plug pipeline, investors worry it has overpaid; declares 11% rise in pretax profits for Q1 but takes $83 billion charge on heart drug trials failure

Competitive Trends | Company Analysis Part 2


Novartis – sales up but Indian patent litigation and Zelnorm withdrawal worries leading to 2,500 job cuts announced at year end

Merck – caps Vioxx payouts; cholesterol, cervical cancer and diabetes drugs sell well

Pfizer – 10,000 job losses, hit by generics and expiring patents

AstraZeneca – filling pipeline holes through headline-making acquisitions

GSK – Andrew Witty to take over at the top announced in autumn; Cervarix cancer vaccine FDA delay at end of year

Competitive Trends | Analysis by Content Type


AstraZeneca – To invest $100 million in Chinese R&D facility; major restructuring and cost cutting in Europe

Pfizer – Losing Chinese ‘Viagra’patent name ‘Wei Ge’ case; in talks to spin off Japanese R&D unit

All the European-based companies show a less-than-20% media footprint in the U.S. market

Sanofi, Roche and Novartis have heavy European footprints (close to 60%) – strength in one place suggests an obvious growth path in another for the Europeans (the U.S.)

Roche – Holds off generic Plavix patent challenge but remains subject of takeover speculation

Competitive Trends | Share of Voice by Region


A company’s ‘home turf’ reflects the dominance and extent of country-by-country coverage it receives:

Novartis/Roche = Switzerland

GSK/AstraZeneca = UK

Others = U.S.

Competitive Trends | Share of Voice by Country


Top 3 Merck PublicationsEl País 286

Frankfurter Rundschau 276The Wall Street Journal 271

Top 3 AstraZeneca PublicationsThe Guardian 361

Il Giornale 264El País 211

Top 3 Eli Lilly PublicationsIndianapolis Star 377

Kommersant - Ukraine 222Basler Zeitung 177

Top 3 Roche PublicationsBasler Zeitung 345

Il Giornale 257Neue Zürcher Zeitung 248

Competitive Trends | Top Publications Part 2


Top 3 Sanofi Publications

Les Echos 498El País 301

Le Figaro 254

Top 3 Pfizer Publications

El País 300The Wall Street Journal 273Kommersant - Ukraine 224

Top 3 Novartis Publications

Basler Zeitung 817Neue Zürcher Zeitung 497Finanz und Wirtschaft 403

Competitive Trends | Top Publications Part 2


Section II: CEO Coverage


Daniel Vasella considers reactivating share buyback programme, denies acquisition talks, attacked over pay and on single versus dual role

Daniel Vasella announces job cuts, says Q1 in ’08 will be negative in the U.S.

David Brennan takes lead of additional 4,600 job cuts announced as pretax profits for Q2 tumble by 10% and MedImmune buy completes

Humer announces sales up 16%, says Roche will broaden investor base in Russia, Middle East and Asia

David Brennan cuts 3,000 jobs and rules out large takeover

David Brennan pitches in as EU patent office revokes patent on Symbicort anti-asthma drug

CEO Coverage | Trend Analysis Part 1


With Garnier due to retire in May ‘08, the battle for a successor is finally concluded when head of European pharmaceuticals Andrew Witty is named as next CEO

Jeff Kindler’s plan to cut 10,000 jobs at Pfizer shakes the industry and the company to the core

‘Integrity will be my legacy,’ says GSK’s Dr. Garnier (The Times: 02/04/08)

John Lechleiter announced as successor to Sidney Taurel starting in May ‘08

Kindler announces $2.8 billion write-down on insulin drug Exubera as it is pulled

CEO Coverage | Trend Analysis Part 2


The strongest hands-on CEOs are both at Swiss companies

Two French leaders figure among the less prominent – suggesting there is a cultural ‘drift’toward a certain style of leadership

GSK’s Garnier stands out as a ‘transnational’ figure in 2007

BMS’s Cornelius rewarded for handling transition from sacked Peter Dolan to defending BMS against generics

CEO Coverage | Analysis by Content Type


Humer, Vasella, Dehecq and Le Fur have continental Europe profiles in excess of 70% of their total coverage and tiny profiles in North America

Garnier, Brennan and Kindler are the only three leaders with strong profiles on both sides of the Atlantic

CEO Coverage | Analysis by Region


Given the importance of the Roche mid-summer bid for Ventana Medical, it is surprising we did not see more of Franz Humer in the U.S. media

The Humer, Vasella, Dehecq and Le Fur bias is shown to primarily reflect coverage in French and Swiss media

The Clark, Taurel, Cornelius and, to a lesser degree, Kindler U.S. bias is brought out in this chart

Garnier and Brennan have solid exposure on both sides of the Atlantic

CEO Coverage | Analysis by Country


Section III: Industry Issue Analysis


Novartis - Indian patent court case woes

Merck - outstanding Vioxx litigation costs capped in Sept

Pfizer - under fire in Nigeria and losing patent protection on Norvasc

AstraZeneca – under patent attack over No. 3 drug Crestor; Nexium and Seroquel cases due in 2008

Roche – loses patent lawsuit on Mircera anemia drug to Amgen

Eli Lilly – class action on antipsychotic drug Zyprexa

Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - Global


Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca’s year feature heavy job cuts across both companies

Novartis’ issues with Galvus approval and Zelnorm withdrawal cause higher figures

Merck ends promising HIV vaccine tests

GSK secures big U.S. flu vaccine contract

Eli Lilly boosts R&D in Singapore, Argentina and Korea

Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - Europe


Novartis gets caught at the wrong end of a nine-month court case in India leading to 1 in 4 of all stories reflecting badly on the company

Eli Lilly announces R&D investment in regional powerhouses Singapore and Korea

AstraZeneca commits to invest in R&D in Korea, Japan and China

Roche – loses patent lawsuit on Mircera anemia drug to Amgen

Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - Asia Pacific


Coverage regarding the U.S. FDA represents somewhere between one-in-six to one-in-three of all pharmaceutical news stories in the U.S. marketplace

Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - North America


With many of the largest drug companies reporting full-year results in January 2008, it is clear that few were showing little signs of escaping their big-picture problems. These include upcoming patent expirations, rising competition from generic drug makers, low R&D productivity and a lack of new revenue drivers, spreading legal challenges and increased government scrutiny of drug safety and marketing practices. These factors have long weighed on drug makers' stock. In addition, the U.S. presidential election in November it is likely to keep pressure on the sector as the price of healthcare again becomes a political focus in the world's largest drugs market.

One positive for the sector is that during January some investors and analysts started highlighting that drugs companies, despite their problems, have at least maintained relatively strong balance sheets, solid near-term earnings visibility underpinned by share buybacks, limited exposure to a consumer downturn in the U.S. and good cash flow.

One small blot on the immediate horizon, European Union investigators have targeted companies in several countries, as the bloc's antitrust watchdog launched a wide investigation of potentially anticompetitive practices in the industry. AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis, and Pfizer said they were among the companies contacted.

Summary | Looking Back at 2007


Report Methodology

OverviewThe findings in this complimentary report summarize the results of a Dow Jones Insight text-mining platform. Our system gathers relevant content from more than 10,000 global traditional media sources plus social media sources including Websites, blogs and message boards. The Dow Jones Insight Media Lab consultants then review the results to produce a report with summary charts and analysis. This study analyzed coverage from the Dow Jones Factiva global media set unless otherwise specified.

Media SetPress releases were excluded from this analysis by the exclusion of all “paid-for” wire services, except where stated otherwise. Datamonitor Profiles, News and Comment and Premium Research Reports were also excluded to ensure a high relevancy of the underlying data set. Routine General News and Republished News were also excluded.

Search constructionSearch strings used for investigating products, terms, market issues and individuals were constructed using Dow Jones Factiva’s predetermined codes unless otherwise noted.

Reporting Period January 1, 2007 through December 31, 2007


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Global Trends Pharma Report 8042008

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Transcript of Global Trends Pharma Report 8042008