Global Syngas Overview - 2018 · UPSTREAM | MIDSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | FUEL & TRANSPORT Global Syngas...
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UPSTREAM | MIDSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | FUEL & TRANSPORT
Global Syngas Overview - 2018
www.stratasadvisors.com
Presenter: Habib Khan
Contact: John Paisie Executive Vice-President
TEL +1.713.260.4628 / MOBILE +1.832.517.7544
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 2
• Stratas Advisors is a global consulting and advisory firm that
covers the full spectrum of the energy sector and closely
linked industries
• The world’s leading businesses, governments and
institutions turn to us for data, analysis and insight (IOCs,
NOCs, independents, energy consumers and financial
entities)
• We help our clients achieve tangible results through informed
strategic decision-making and implementation planning
• Key differentiators include
– Global coverage with deep local knowledge
– Integrated analysis across the entire energy value
chain, including macro-level analysis (geopolitics,
macro-economics, policies and regulations)
• Our research and consulting staff comprises professionals
located on the ground in key global energy market centers
• Combined, our team brings over 500 years of combined
energy industry expertise, including
– Technical (Petroleum Engineers, Geologists, Process Engineers)
– Economists
– Political Scientists
– Financial Analysts
Who We Are
www.stratasadvisors.com
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Integrated Service Offering
Upstream
Macro & Geo-Political
Midstream
Downstream
Fuel & Transport
LT & ST Price Forecasting
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Stratas Advisors Syngas Capabilities
• Understanding the key drivers, metrics, and
developments across processes in the
Global Syngas industry
– Methanol, GTL & CTL, Ammonia, UCG, Direct
Reduced Iron, and many more.
• Anchored by industry-leading database of
syngas projects across feedstocks and
outputs worldwide.
– Natural Gas, Coal, Waste, Biomass,
Residuals, coke-oven gas.
• Evaluating projects and proponents through
qualitative and quantitative metrics
– Corporate and process analysis
• Forecasting plant developments, capacity
additions, and changes in output
• Economic evaluation for production costs,
CAPEX, OPEX, and potential project
revenue and pricing.
Strength Across Processes
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Agenda
• Global Syngas Market
– Capacity share by application
– Capacity share by feedstock
– Capacity share by product
– CAPEX in investment projects by product
• Global Syngas Market Trends
– Global syngas market trends by application
– Global syngas market trends by feedstock
– Global syngas market trends by product
• Syngas Project Scores
• Conclusions
Global Syngas Markets
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 7
Global Syngas Capacity Share by ApplicationCapacity as percentage of application
• 74.5%, of syngas capacity
are employed in chemicals
production – nitrogenous
fertilizer, methanol, industrial
chemicals, DME etc.
• 10.6% of capacity provides
synthetic natural and gaseous
fuel.
• 11.6% is in GTL and CTL
sector.
• 3.3% capacity is used for
power production.
Capacity Share by Application
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Global Syngas Capacity Share by FeedstockCapacity as percentage of feedstock
• Coal and natural gas are the
two dominant feedstocks for
syngas
• Goal’s share is 48.3% and
natural gas’ share is 46.5%
• Refining residual such as
petcoke, refinery residue and
coke oven gas serves as
4.3% syngas feedstock
• Biomass and waste constitute
less than 1% of syngas
feedstock
Capacity Share by Feedstock
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 9
Global Syngas Capacity Share by ProductCapacity as percentage of products
• 33.8% syngas capacities
serve nitrogenous fertilizer
production.
• 22% is used for methanol
production
• 11.6% is used for liquid fuels
such as gasoline an diesel
production
• 10.6% produces synthetic
natural gas and gaseous fuel
Capacity Share by Product
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 10
Global Syngas in-Development CAPEX Share
by ProductCAPEX in projects by products
• Syngas projects for fertilizer
and liquid fuels are worth
USD 24 billions each
• Syngas projects for methanol
and power generation are
worth USD 15 billions each
CAPEX by Product Units: Billion USD and %
Global Syngas Market Trends
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 12
Global Syngas Capacity Trend by ApplicationKey Insight: Capacity Trends by Application
• Growth of syngas capacity
was very strong from 2010 to
2017
• CAGR for chemical, gaseous
fuels, liquid fuels and power
generation were 10%, 26%,
18% and 12% respectively.
• CAGR for these applications
from 2018 to 2024 are
projected to be 3%, 16%, 9%
and 5% respectively. Low oil
price is the main cause
behind this slow down.
• As oil price keeps rising,
number of announced
projects will pick up after
2020.
• Syngas capacity CAGR for
chemicals, gaseous fuels,
liquid fuels and power
generation are projected to
be 5%, 20%, 12% and 15%
after 2024.
Capacity Trend by Application Units: MW Thermal
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 13
Global Syngas Capacity Trend by FeedstockKey Insight: Feedstock Trends
• Refining Residual
gasification- small share, but
largest applications under
development: Reliance
Industries, Saudi Aramco etc.
• Coal gasification almost
exclusively headed Asia’s
way, with a majority in China.
Supported with long-term
high NG and crude pricing.
• Natural gas will gain
percentage of feedstock
share.
Capacity Trend by Feedstock Units: MW Thermal
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 14
Global Syngas Capacity Trend by ProductKey Insight: Product Trends
• Syngas capacity for fertilizer
production will grow steadily.
• Methanol, SNG/gaseous
fuels and liquid fuels from
syngas will grow at higher
rate in the long run.
• Overall feed trend will
definitely follow capacity
trend – a relatively slow
growth till 2024. Growth will
increase afterwards.
Capacity Trend by Product Units: MW Thermal
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 15
Long Term Crude Oil Price Outlook1995-2040
• Oil price bottomed in
early 2016
• Crash in oil price caused
slowdown in syngas
capacity expansion. A lot
of announced projects got
cancelled.
• Oil price is projected to
keep moving upward with
short term price
fluctuations.
• Higher oil prices will
provide driving force
syngas capacity
expansion for chemicals,
liquid fuels and gaseous
fuels.
Syngas Project Scores
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 17
Syngas Projects Scoring by Feedstock
Plant Country TypeFeedstock
CategoryOperator
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
JCCICL-Tongliao Chemical
ComplexChina
Coal to chemicals (ammonia,
urea, olefins, etc.)Coal
Jilin Connell Chemical Industry
Company Limited (JCCICL)403 2018
Yingde Gases Group Co.,
Ltd ProjectChina Coal to hydrogen Coal Yingde Gases Group Co., Ltd 415 2018
Zhong'an United Coal and
Chemical Co. LtdChina
Coal to chemicals (ammonia,
urea, olefins, etc.)Coal
Zhong'an United Coal and
Chemical Co. Ltd383 2019
Jinmei Huayu Coal
Chemical Co China Coal to methanol Coal
Shanxi Jinmei Huayu Coal
Chemical Co Ltd460 2019
Yitai Group Ordos CTL 2 China Coal to liquids Coal Yitai Group 424 2020
CNOOC/Datong Shanxi
SNGChina
Coal to synthetic natural gas
(SNG)Coal CNOOC/ Datong Coal Mine Group 420 2018
Yili Xintian Coal Chemical
Co., LtdChina
Coal to synthetic natural gas
(SNG)Coal Yili Xintian Coal Chemical Co., Ltd 460 2018
Lu'an Group CTL China Coal to liquids Coal Lu'an Group 405 2018
Inner Mongolia Wuyuan
Jinniu Coal Chemical Co.,
Ltd
ChinaCoal to chemicals (ammonia,
urea, olefins, etc.)Coal
Inner Mongolia Wuyuan Jinniu Coal
Chemical Co., Ltd415 2019
China Pingmei Shenma
Group China
Coal to chemicals (ammonia,
urea, olefins, etc.)Coal China Pingmei Shenma Group 379 2019
Coal
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 18
Syngas Projects Scoring by Feedstock
Plant Country TypeFeedstock
CategoryOperator
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Ramagundam Fertilizer Plant GTC 2 India NG to chemicalsNatural GasNational Fertilizers Limited (NFL)
and Engineers India limited (EIL)351 2019
Turkmenistan GTL Turkmenistan NG to liquids Natural Gas Ronesans Endustri Tesisleri 459 2019
Busher 16th Olefins and Methanol
ComplexIran NG to chemicalsNatural Gas Bushehr Petrochemical Co. 233 2020
Oltin Yol GTL Uzbekistan NG to liquids Natural Gas Sasol 477 2020
Kingisepp Ammonia Plant Russia NG to chemicalsNatural GasEuroChem Mineral and Chemical
Company289 2018
South Louisiana Methanol (SLM) USA NG to chemicalsNatural Gas South Louisiana Methanol L.P 334 2023
Kaveh Methanol Iran NG to chemicalsNatural Gas Kaveh Methanol Co. 352 2019
Natural Gas
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 19
Syngas Projects Scoring by Feedstock
Plant Country TypeFeedstock
CategoryOperator
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Jamnagar Petcoke
GasificationIndia Petcoke to syngas Petcoke Reliance Industries (RIL) 450 2018
Kitimat Clean Upgrader CanadaOil residue to
liquidsBitumen Kitimat Clean Ltd. 160 2024
NWU/CNR Bitumen
RefineryCanada Bitumen to liquids Bitumen
North West Upgrading
Inc.430 2018
Jizan IGCC Power Plant Saudi ArabiaOil residue to
powerOil Residue Saudi Aramco 498 2019
Refinery Residue
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 20
Syngas Projects Scoring by Feedstock
Plant Country TypeFeedstock
CategoryOperator
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Glasgow WTE (Glasgow
Recycling and Renewable
Energy Center)
United Kingdom Waste to power Waste Viridor 390 2018
Birmingham Bio-Power United Kingdom Biomass to power BiomassBirmingham Bio
Power Ltd.383 2018
Welland WTE United Kingdom Biomass to power Biomass Balfour Beatty 365 2018
Belfast Bombardier WTE United Kingdom Waste to power Waste Full Circle Generation 364 2018
Yamagata WTE Japan Waste to power WasteMitsubishi Heavy
Industries358 2018
Stockton-On-Tees WTE United Kingdom Waste to power BiomassPort Clarence
Biomass311 2018
Beddington WTE United Kingdom Waste to power Waste Viridor 263 2019
Pilbara Waste to Energy Australia Waste to power WasteNew Energy
Corporation219 2020
Red Rock Biofuels BTL USA Biomass to liquids Biomass Red Rock Biofuels 210 2020
Biomass/Waste
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 21
Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductNitrogenous Fertilizer
Plant Country OperatorFeedstock
Category
Capacity,
mmtpa
(ammonia/
urea)
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
JCCICL-Tongliao Chemical
ComplexChina
Jilin Connell Chemical Industry Company
Limited (JCCICL)Coal 0.24 403 2018
Ramagundam Fertilizer
Plant GTC 2India
National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) and
Engineers India limited (EIL)Natural Gas 1/1.40 351 2019
Kingisepp Ammonia Plant Russia EuroChem Mineral and Chemical Company Natural Gas 1 289 2018
Inner Mongolia Wuyuan
Jinniu Coal Chemical Co.,
Ltd
ChinaInner Mongolia Wuyuan Jinniu Coal Chemical
Co., LtdCoal 0.3 415 2019
China Pingmei Shenma
Group China China Pingmei Shenma Group Coal 0.16 379 2019
PhosAgro Fertilizer Plant Russia Phosagro Natural Gas 1/0.5 322 2019
Lordegan Ammonia/Urea Iran Lordegan Urea Natural Gas 1/1.075 317 2019
Kermanshah Petrochemical
IndustriesIran Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Natural Gas 0.4/0.66 295 2021
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 22
Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductMethanol
Plant Country OperatorFeedstock
Category
Methanol
Capacity,
mmtpa
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Jinmei Huayu Coal Chemical Co ChinaShanxi Jinmei Huayu Coal
Chemical Co LtdCoal 1.00 460 2019
Busher 16th Olefins and Methanol
ComplexIran Bushehr Petrochemical Co. Natural Gas 1.65 233 2020
Qinghai Damei Coal Industry
Stock Co., LtdChina
Qinghai Damei Coal Industry
Stock Co., LtdCoke Oven Gas 1.80 339 2018
Zhong'an United Coal and
Chemical Co. LtdChina
Zhong'an United Coal and
Chemical Co. LtdCoal 1.70 383 2019
Jiutai Energy MTO ChinaJiutai Energy Inner Mongolia
Co., LtdCoal 1.80 472 2019
IGP-Gulf Coast Methanol Park USA IGP Methanol LLC (IGP) Natural Gas 7.00 2028
South Louisiana Methanol (SLM) USASouth Louisiana Methanol
L.PNatural Gas 1.825 334 2023
Kaveh Methanol Iran Kaveh Methanol Co. Natural Gas 2.31 352 2019
Tula IMAP Facility Russia Schekinoazot Natural Gas 0.45 301 2018
Dena Petrochemical Co. Iran Dena Petrochemical Co. Natural Gas 1.65 288 2021
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 23
Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductLiquid Fuels
Plant Country TypeCapacity
(Mbpd)Operator
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Yitai Group Ordos CTL 2 China CTL 44 Yitai Group 424 2020
Lu'an Group CTL China CTL 37 Lu'an Group 405 2018
Turkmenistan GTL Turkmenistan GTL 3Ronesans Endustri
Tesisleri459 2019
Oltin Yol GTL Uzbekistan GTL 37 Sasol 477 2020
NWU/CNR Bitumen RefineryCanada Bitumen 50North West
Upgrading Inc.430 2018
Red Rock Biofuels BTL USA BTL 0.8 Red Rock Biofuels 168 2020
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 24
Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductGaseous Fuels
Plant Country OperatorFeedstock
Category
Product
Capacity
(mmcfd)
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
CNOOC/Datong
Shanxi SNGChina
CNOOC/ Datong Coal
Mine GroupCoal SNG / 388 420 2018
Yili Xintian Coal
Chemical Co., LtdChina
Yili Xintian Coal Chemical
Co., LtdCoal SNG / 193 460 2018
Yingde Gases Group
Co., Ltd ProjectChina
Yingde Gases Group Co.,
Ltd Coal H2 / 50 415 2018
Jamnagar Petcoke
GasificationIndia Reliance Industries (RIL) Petcoke Syngas / 812 450 2018
Beijing Holding
Zhungeer PlantChina Beijing Holding Group Coal SNG / 388 393 2019
Guodian Yili SNG
PlantChina
China Guodian
CorporationCoal SNG / 388 420 2018
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 25
Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductOlefins
Plant Country OperatorFeedstock
Category
Olefins
Capacity,
mmtpa
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Huating Zhongxu Coal Chemical
MTO Plant China
Huating Zhongxu Coal
ChemicalCoal 0.20 268 2018
Total/CPI Inner Mongolia MTO China Total Coal 1.00 285 2022
Jiutai Energy MTO ChinaJiutai Energy Inner
Mongolia Co., LtdCoal 0.60 472 2019
Lu'an Group CTL China Lu'an Group Coal 0.30 405 2018
Zhong'an United Coal and Chemical
Co. LtdChina
Zhong'an United Coal
and Chemical Co. LtdCoal 0.60 383 2019
Shanxi Coking Coal Group Feihong
Chemical Co LtdChina
Shanxi Coking Coal
Group Feihong
Chemical Co Ltd
Coal 0.60 258 2019
Sinopec Guizhou CTO China Sinopec Coal 0.60 333 2021
Shenhua Group Baoutou CTO ChinaShenhua Group Co.
Ltd.Coal 1.80 370 2021
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 26
Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductPower
Plant Country OperatorFeedstock
Category
Power
capacity MW
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Stockton-On-Tees WTE United Kingdom Port Clarence Biomass Biomass 49 311 2018
Welland WTE United Kingdom Balfour Beatty Biomass 9 365 2018
Birmingham Bio-Power United KingdomBirmingham Bio Power
Ltd.Biomass 10 383 2018
Jizan IGCC Power PlantSaudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Oil Residue 2400 498 2019
Beddington WTE United Kingdom Viridor Waste 26 263 2019
Belfast Bombardier
WTEUnited Kingdom Full Circle Generation Waste 15 364 2018
Glasgow WTE
(Glasgow Recycling and
Renewable Energy
Center)
United Kingdom Viridor Waste 22 390 2018
Gloucestershie
Residual Waste ProjectUnited Kingdom Urbaser Waste 116 248 2018
Herten WTE Germany Lockheed Martin
CorporationWaste 5 356 2018
Plant Country OperatorFeedstock
Category
Power capacity
MW
Analyst
Factored
Score
Projection
Start Year
Stockton-On-Tees WTE United Kingdom Port Clarence Biomass Biomass 49 311 2018
Welland WTE United Kingdom Balfour Beatty Biomass 9 365 2018
Birmingham Bio-Power United Kingdom Birmingham Bio Power Ltd. Biomass 10 383 2018
Jizan IGCC Power Plant Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Oil Residue 2400 498 2019
Beddington WTE United Kingdom Viridor Waste 26 263 2019
Belfast Bombardier WTE United Kingdom Full Circle Generation Waste 15 364 2018
Glasgow WTE (Glasgow
Recycling and Renewable
Energy Center)
United Kingdom Viridor Waste 22 390 2018
Gloucestershie Residual
Waste ProjectUnited Kingdom Urbaser Waste 116 248 2018
Herten WTE Germany Lockheed Martin
CorporationWaste 5 356 2018
Conclusions
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 28
Conclusions
• Global syngas capacity has been growing at a CAGR of 17% from 2010
to 2017.
• Syngas capacity growth slowed down recently and expected to last this
slow down till 2024.
• Growth is expected pick up pace after 2024 as oil price is projected to
keep rising.
• A shift towards natural gas as preferred feed stock is projected.
• Number of announced projects will increase after 2020.
• Good days for syngas sector is ahead.
Contact Information
Q & AHabib Khan, Sr Analyst, Downstream, [email protected] W: +1.713.260.4641 C: +1.832.282.4048
Anjani Singh, Director, Downstream, [email protected] W: +1.713.260.6412 C: +1.832.366.4076
Houston Office - Phone: +1.713.260.6426
Brussels Office - Phone: +32.2.287.08.23
Singapore Office - Phone: +65.6353.6126