Global Production - UNCTAD

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Global Production (million MT, copra equivalent) 11.25 12.12 11.72 2008 2012 2017 11.60 12.00 11.80 12.20 11.40 11.20

Transcript of Global Production - UNCTAD

Page 1: Global Production - UNCTAD

Global Production(million MT, copra equivalent)

11.25

12.12

11.72

2008 2012 2017

11.60

12.00

11.80

12.20

11.40

11.20

Page 2: Global Production - UNCTAD

Global Export Trend(million MT)

7,84

8,208,26

2015 2016 2017

Page 3: Global Production - UNCTAD

Vegetable Oils Production 2018

1%

Coconut Oil

2%

Olive Oil

34%

Palm Oil

15%

Rapeseed Oil

30%

Soybean Oil

10%

Sunflower Oil

4%

Palm Kernel Oil

2%

Groundnut Oil

2%

Cotton Oil

Source: Oil World

Page 4: Global Production - UNCTAD

Global Export Value

2017

Total:

USD 9.5 billion

US$ 2.66 billion US$ 5.59 billion

US$ 0.87 billion

US$ 0.24 billion

Page 5: Global Production - UNCTAD

Global Export Value 2017 (USD’000)

Page 6: Global Production - UNCTAD

Indonesia Weekly Price of CNO, Copra and Coconut

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

08

/01

/16

29

/01

/16

19

/02

/16

11

/03

/16

01

/04

/16

22

/04

/16

13

/05

/16

03

/06

/16

24

/06

/16

15

/07

/16

05

/08

/16

26

/08

/16

16

/09

/16

07

/10

/16

28

/10

/16

18

/11

/16

09

/12

/16

30

/12

/16

21

/01

/17

11

/02

/17

04

/03

/17

25

/03

/17

15

/04

/17

06

/05

/17

27

/05

/17

17

/06

/17

08

/07

/17

29

/07

/17

19

/08

/17

09

/09

/17

30

/09

/17

21

/10

/17

11

/11

/17

02

/12

/17

23

/12

/17

13

/01

/18

03

/02

/18

24

/02

/18

17

/03

/18

07

/04

/18

28

/04

/18

19

/05

/18

09

/06

/18

30

/06

/18

21

/07

/18

11

/08

/18

01

/09

/18

22

/09

/18

13

/10

/18

03

/11

/18

Coconut Oil Europe Coconut Oil Indonesia (FOB, Bitung)

Copra Indonesia (Domestic, North Sulawesi) Coconut (Husked) Indonesia (Domestic)

Page 7: Global Production - UNCTAD

India Weekly Price of CNO, Copra and Coconut

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

08

/01

/16

29

/01

/16

19

/02

/16

11

/03

/16

01

/04

/16

22

/04

/16

13

/05

/16

03

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/16

24

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/16

15

/07

/16

05

/08

/16

26

/08

/16

16

/09

/16

07

/10

/16

28

/10

/16

18

/11

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09

/12

/16

30

/12

/16

21

/01

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11

/02

/17

04

/03

/17

25

/03

/17

15

/04

/17

06

/05

/17

27

/05

/17

17

/06

/17

08

/07

/17

29

/07

/17

19

/08

/17

09

/09

/17

30

/09

/17

21

/10

/17

11

/11

/17

02

/12

/17

23

/12

/17

13

/01

/18

03

/02

/18

24

/02

/18

17

/03

/18

07

/04

/18

28

/04

/18

19

/05

/18

09

/06

/18

30

/06

/18

21

/07

/18

11

/08

/18

01

/09

/18

22

/09

/18

13

/10

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03

/11

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Coconut Oil Europe Coconut Oil India (Domestic) Copra India (Domestic, Kochi) Coconut (Dehusked) India (Domestic, Kerala)

Page 8: Global Production - UNCTAD

Philippines Weekly Price of CNO, Copra and Coconut

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.5000

8/0

1/1

6

05

/02

/16

04

/03

/16

01

/04

/16

29

/04

/16

27

/05

/16

24

/06

/16

22

/07

/16

19

/08

/16

16

/09

/16

14

/10

/16

11

/11

/16

09

/12

/16

07

/01

/17

04

/02

/17

04

/03

/17

01

/04

/17

29

/04

/17

27

/05

/17

24

/06

/17

22

/07

/17

19

/08

/17

16

/09

/17

14

/10

/17

11

/11

/17

09

/12

/17

06

/01

/18

03

/02

/18

03

/03

/18

31

/03

/18

28

/04

/18

26

/05

/18

23

/06

/18

21

/07

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/08

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/09

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13

/10

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10

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Coconut Oil Europe Coconut Oil Philippines

Copra Philippines (Domestic, Quezon) Coconut (Husked) Philippines (Domestic, Southern Tagalog)

Page 9: Global Production - UNCTAD

Production vs Price

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Production Price (US$/MT, CIF Rott)

Source: Oil World

Page 10: Global Production - UNCTAD

CNO Price Premium over PKO (CNO=Coconut Oil, PKO = Palm Kernel Oil)

(300)

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Page 11: Global Production - UNCTAD

Factors causing decline in market prices

Supply

Increase

Price

Premium

Global

Uncertainty

Page 12: Global Production - UNCTAD

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500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Philippines Sri Lanka Indonesia Average

Price Trend

Coconut Oil Price Trend (USD/MT, CIF Rotterdam)

Desiccated Coconut Price Trend (USD/MT)

400

900

1.400

1.900

2.400

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PKO CNO

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

2.800

3.000

Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov

Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov

Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov

Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov

Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

p

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AC-Indonesia AC-Sri Lanka

Activated Carbon Price Trend (USD/MT)

Page 13: Global Production - UNCTAD

Trending Products

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Volume (MT) 2 per Mov. Avg.

VCO Export from Philippines (MT)

18.402

27.099

34.300

37.900 37.535

42.687

38.670

14.09516.911

20.34623.058

20.832

25.365 25.597

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Value (US$ 000) Volume (Ton)

Coconut Sugar Export from Indonesia (MT)

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Coconut Water Import by USA (MT)

Page 14: Global Production - UNCTAD

?

5 cents

10 cents

15 cents

30 cents

$1.00

Value of one Coconut?

$2.00 +