Global Policy and Trade Session: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges
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11 th Session of the NORTH ATLANTIC SEAFOOD FORUM MARCH 1–3, 2016 BERGEN, NORWAY 1 Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GLOBAL POLICY AND TRADE SESSION: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges
Transcript of Global Policy and Trade Session: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges
11th Session of the NORTH ATLANTIC SEAFOOD FORUM MARCH 1–3, 2016BERGEN, NORWAY
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Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General
Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFoodand Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations
GLOBAL POLICY AND TRADE SESSION: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030
prospects and challenges
Total Landings of Marine Fisheries
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Marine Fish Landings by Continent
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10
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30
40
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
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Fish Landings: Developed vs Developing Nations
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0e+0
01e
+07
2e+0
73e
+07
4e+0
75e
+07
6e+0
7
yrs
Land
ings(t
)
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Global Trend in the State of World Marine Fish Stocks, 1974-2011
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
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12.0
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20.0
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80
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012
Aquaculture for human consumption
Capture for human consumption
Non-food uses
Per capita food fish supply
Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg)
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Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9%
[Million Tonnes]
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
China61%
Asia91%
Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production
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25
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160
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Kg
per
cap
ita
per
yea
r
USD
bill
ion
World seafood exports World seafood consumption
Linear (World seafood exports) Linear (World seafood consumption)
Globalization in a graph: world seafood exports vs world average seafood consumption 1976 to 2014
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35.2%
35.4%
35.6%
35.8%
36.0%
36.2%
36.4%
36.6%
36.8%
37.0%
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2012 2013 2014
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Production volume Trade volume Proportion of production traded
Production vs trade – last three years
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Developed Import
Developing Import
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bill
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Developed Export
Developing Export
World seafood trade: developed vs developing
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Fish Meat (Terrestrial)
Terrestrial meat price index vs. Fish price index Jan 2000 – Jan 2015
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Conclusion from this analyzes is:
• Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years.
• Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing countries.
• Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still unacceptable.
• Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human consumption.
• Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed countries, is slowing down.
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Conclusion from this analyzes is:
A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from developed countries to developing countries, where small scale
fisheries will be extremely important.
B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia.
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Will there be any international trade in fish?
1. Political reasons?
The general political environment is favorable.
Something dramatic has to happen to change that.
2. What about demand?
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• .
OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022)
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average.Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.
WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections
Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red
Country/region
Fish Demand (2030) Total fish
prod. (2012, mil.
tonne)
S-Dgap
2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3)
kg/cap.Total (mil.
tonne)
WORLD29.1 261.2 156.5
-104.7
S.S. Africa10.8 15.1 6.9
-8.2
L.A. & C.12.2 18.3 14.8
-3.4
N. Africa12.9 3.7 2.8
-0.8
Europe27.3 23.4 16.0
-7.4
N. America29.8 12.9 6.7
-6.1
Oceania31.9 1.8 1.4
-0.3
Asia37.0 186.3 107.8
-78.5
Future fish supply and demand projections
FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections
Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged
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What about environmental reasons?
a. Climate change:
Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in BoracayIslands, Philippines 9th May 2015:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y
b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years may be different, continued challenge.
c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems. However question marks around animal protein and trophic levels. 16
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Main Challenges
There are many challenges some of which have been
mentioned
They fall into two categories:
1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in
developed and middle income-countries.
2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a
broader group of producers.
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Main Challenges
However, there are two main fundamental major challenges, both in
the shadow of climate change:
• Aquaculture
• Small Scale Fisheries
• Decent Work
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THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
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