Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment...

36
Global Packaging M&A Nicholas Mockett Moorgate Capital

Transcript of Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment...

Page 1: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Global Packaging M&ANicholas Mockett Moorgate Capital

Page 2: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

2

Introduction to Moorgate Capital

Moorgate Capital is an independent Corporate Finance firm specialising in:

Buy Outs

Mergers, Acquisitions & Disposals

Capital Raising

Strategic Advice

Fairness Opinion

Clients include multinational public companies, leading financial .sponsors, management teams, private companies, family offices and banks.

Clients benefit from:

Our investment in long term relations

Lack of conflict of interests

Deep sector knowledge

Page 3: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Key contactsSir Peter Heap [email protected] Tel: +44 20 7060 7017

Sir Peter was with the Foreign & Commonwealth Office of the British Government for over thirty years, including being the Ambassador inBrazil, Senior Trade Commissioner in Hong Kong, British High Commissioner, Bahamas, as well as the Head of EnergyDepartment. Subsequently he worked full time with HSBC Investment Bank and as senior adviser or Non Executive of a number of othercompanies including Amerada Hess and BOC Group. Sir Peter is Chairman Emeritus of the Brazilian Chamber of Commerce in GreatBritain.

Nicholas Mockett Industry [email protected] Tel: +44 20 7060 7005

Nick has focused exclusively on the Paper & Packaging related industries for 25 years and his experience includes disposals, acquisitions,leveraged buy outs and take privates. He has advised on dozens of deals worth billions of Dollars. Prior to Moorgate Capital he spent 4years with Europa Partners and 8 years with PwC Corporate Finance where he was Sector Leader for the P&P industry. Nick is a Liverymanof the Worshipful Company of Stationers & News Paper Makers; Judge of the annual Packaging News Award; and serial Judge of Pulp &Paper Industry Awards.

Sophie Spillard Senior Vice [email protected] Tel: +44 20 7060 7003

Sophie has 10 years of M&A experience including 20+ M&A transactions in Paper & Packaging, advising MNCs and financial sponsors. Shejoined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverage and Corporate Brooking. Sophie isa graduate of Imperial College London (MSci in Geophysics), Tanaka Business School, and holds an MBA from IMD in Switzerland. She waslead author of Global Packaging 100, published by Haymarket in conjunction with Packaging News.

3

Page 4: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Outline

1. Industry structure & performance

2. Global packaging M&A

3. Trends & outlook

4

Page 5: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Outline

1. Industry structure & performance

2. Global packaging M&A

3. Trends & outlook

5

Page 6: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Drivers of consolidation

STRUCTURE

CONDUCT PERFORMANCE

6

Page 7: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Industry concentration: HHI

SC P

415

265

1,675

1,049

602

552

1,414

791

2,827

1,729

1,482

1,179

296

351

1,671

1,602

1,025

817

640

488

1,393

1,893

1,401

1,073

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Asia

Asia

North America

North America

Western Europe

Western Europe

Asia

Asia

North America

North America

Western Europe

Western Europe

Asia

Asia

North America

North America

Western Europe

Western Europe

Asia

Asia

North America

North America

Western Europe

Western Europe

Containerboard

Competitive Moderately concentrated Highly concentrated20042016

Coated woodfree

Uncoated woodfree

Tissue

7

Page 8: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Deal drivers: Porter's five forces

SC P

Rivalry among existing

competitors Bargaining power of buyers

Bargaining power of suppliers

Threat of new entrants

Threat of substitute products

8

Page 9: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Deal drivers

SC P

Producers

MaturingMarkets

Demand Side:> Consolidation> Globalisation

Commodityv.

Differentiation

Supply Side:> Consolidation> Volatility

9

Page 10: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Market sentiment

SC P

10

Page 11: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Share price performance

11

“Brazil Is The Best Stock Market In The World Right Now” Jan 2019Forbes

SC P

Sept 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19Aug 18

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40% IBOVESPA+37.4%

S&P 500+2.2%FTSE 100-4.8%

Page 12: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Share price performance v. other industries

SC P

12

CONTAINERS & PACKAGING+ 141.32 %

FTSE 100+ 37.45 %

PHARMA+ 141.70 %

CONSTRUCTION+ 107.56 %

CHEMICALS+ 124.92 %

FOOD & BEVERAGE+ 102.75 %

OIL & GAS+ 0.96%

AUTOMOBILE+ 92.59%

AGRI- 15.60 %

MINING- 64.92 %

Page 13: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Share price performance v. other industries

SC P

13

CONTAINERS & PACKAGING+ 141.32 %

FTSE 100+ 37.45 %

PHARMA+ 141.70 %

CONSTRUCTION+ 107.56 %

CHEMICALS+ 124.92 %

FOOD & BEVERAGE+ 102.75 %

OIL & GAS+ 0.96%

AUTOMOBILE+ 92.59%

AGRI- 15.60 %

MINING- 64.92 %

TECHNOLOGY+ 275.33 %

INTERNET+ 388.44 %

Page 14: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

EV/EBITDA valuations: paper & board packaging

SC P

14

8.4 x 8.4 x

9.2 x9.6 x

9.2 x 9.4 x 9.3 x

8.4 x

6.2 x6.7 x

0 x

1 x

2 x

3 x

4 x

5 x

6 x

7 x

8 x

9 x

10 x

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

Average 8.48 x

Page 15: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

EV/EBITDA valuations vs. other substrates

SC P

15

Plastic pkg 11.44 x Diversified pkg 10.45 x

Metal & glass pkg 9.51 xPaper & board pkg 8.48 x

0 x

2 x

4 x

6 x

8 x

10 x

12 x

14 x

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

Page 16: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

“ and to join forces to pioneer paper bottles”April 2019

“New $4.3B Canadian project to include PE” July 2019

“Material Insights: cancels its West Virginia expansion” July 2019

16

Plastics News

PackagingNews

Plastics News

Plastics industry headlines

Page 17: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Outline

1. Industry structure & performance

2. Global packaging M&A

3. Trends & outlook

17

Page 18: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Global packaging M&A: number of transactions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

18

Page 19: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Global packaging M&A: value of transactions

$ 0 bn

$ 10 bn

$ 20 bn

$ 30 bn

$ 40 bn

$ 50 bn

$ 60 bn

$ 70 bn

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

19

Page 20: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

20

“Brazil's pulpmaker says acquisition to be concluded on Jan 14 ~ US$9.2bn” Nov 2018

Investments

“ subsidiary Softys acquires ” Aug 2019

“ has a 49.4 percent stake in and is in arbitration to complete the full acquisition of the company.” Feb 2019

“ to invest $2.7bn in Uruguay pulp mill” Jul 2019

Page 21: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Packaging M&A deal volume

21

Buyer type Seller type

Strategic 65%PE platform 18%PE add on 17%

Paper 39%Rigid Plastic 24%Flexible Plastic 19%Other (glass, can) 18%

65%

18%

17%

39%

18%

19%

24%

Page 22: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Packaging M&A deal valuations

22

8.1 x

6.9 x

5.9 x6.5 x

6.9 x 7.0 x 6.8 x7.4 x

7.7 x8.0 x 8.1 x

8.4 x

0.0 x

1.0 x

2.0 x

3.0 x

4.0 x

5.0 x

6.0 x

7.0 x

8.0 x

9.0 x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Page 23: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Outline

1. Industry structure & performance

2. Global packaging M&A

3. Trends & outlook

23

Page 24: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Amazon and growth of e-commerce

24

WSJ

Page 25: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

War on plastics

25

The Times

Page 26: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Iceland: plastic free by 2030

#TooCoolForPlastic

850 Tonnes of plastic saved so far26

Telegraph

Page 27: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Burberry: plastic free by 2025

27

wwd.com

Page 28: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Robust fundamentals

28

1. 6.

2. 7.

3. 8.

4. 9.

5. 10.

Environmental influence

Urbanisation

Convenience & on the go

Smaller pack sizes

Branding

Health conscious

Internet retailingWorking mothers

Single people households

LOCAL Shopping locally

MICRO TRENDSMACRO TRENDS1.

Growing population & middle class

2.

Ageing population

3.

Growing protein demand

$

Page 29: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Private Equity dry powder

$ 0 bn

$ 250 bn

$ 500 bn

$ 750 bn

$ 1,000 bn

$ 1,250 bn

$ 1,500 bn

$ 1,750 bn

$ 2,000 bn

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

~ $ 1.8 trillion

29

Page 30: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

~ $ 1.8 trillion

30

fool.com

Page 31: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Private Equity dry powder

U. A. E.

NORWAY SINGAPORE

SWITZERLAND

31

Page 32: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

CURRENC¥ WAR$ and interest rates

32

ft.com

Page 33: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Changes in merger legislation

Canada Increases Threshold of "Size-of-Target" Test

China Reforms Merger Control Regime

Colombia Increases Threshold for Merger Control Filings

Germany and Austria's Competition Agencies Publish Guidance on Merger Control Thresholds

Swedish Competition Authority Authorized to Reject Transactions in Merger Control Cases

Lithuania Increases Merger Notification Thresholds

Philippines Adjusts Notifications ThresholdsUkraine Adopts

Law Linking Merger Reviews to Sanctions List

United Kingdom Lowers Jurisdictional Thresholds for Mergers in Select Sectors

United States Adjusts HSR Thresholds

Italy Makes Annual Adjustment to Turnover Thresholds

33

Page 34: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Outlook

Macro and micro indicators remain robust

Valuations and stock market performance strong

Continued M&A

Activity from both strategic and financial acquirors

Strong industry dynamics

? Changes in interest rates and cost of capital

? New legislation inhibiting deals

? Recession34

Page 35: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Moorgate Capital

www.moorgate-capital.com

33 St James's Square

London

SW1Y 4JS

35

Page 36: Global Packaging M&A - Fastmarkets RISI...joined Moorgate Capital from Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where she focused on UK M&A coverageand Corporate Brooking. Sophie is Sophie is

Moorgate Capital

Disclaimer

This presentation was prepared by Moorgate Capital Ltd. (“Moorgate Capital”). This presentation is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewedsolely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by Moorgate Capital. The presentation (including the briefing) is proprietary to Moorgate Capital andmay not be disclosed to any third party or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Moorgate Capital.

The information in this presentation reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, which are accordingly subject to change. In preparing thispresentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from publicsources or which was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of assets, stocks or businesses. Evenwhen this presentation contains a kind of appraisal, it should be considered preliminary, suitable only for the purpose described herein and not be disclosedor otherwise used without the prior written consent of Moorgate Capital.

36