Global outlook for Clean Coal Technologies

and the work of the IEA Clean Coal Centre

4th

EU - South Africa Coal and Clean Coal Working Group Meeting

5 to 6 November 2012, Johannesburg

Geoff Morrison

Programme Manager

IEA Clean Coal Centre

Contents

Coal aspects from IEA World Energy

Outlook

Improving plant efficiency and the High

Efficiency Low Emissions (HELE) Coal

Roadmap

Prospects for CCS

The work of IEA Clean Coal Centre

World Energy Outlook

Published by IEA November 2011

The views expressed do not necessarily reflect

those of the IEA

IEA WEO 2011: Emerging economies continue

to drive global energy demand

Growth in primary energy demand

Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035,

with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mto

e

China

India

Other developing Asia

Russia

Middle East

Rest of world

OECD

IEA WEO 2011: Coal won the energy race in the

first decade of the 21st century

Growth in global energy demand, 2000-2010

Coal accounted for almost half the increase in energy use over the past decade,

with the bulk of growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies

Nuclear

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Coal Mto

e

Natural gas

Oil

Renewables

Coal production since 1971

IEA WEO 2011: Asia, the arena of future coal

trade

International coal markets & prices become increasingly sensitive to

developments in Asia; India surpasses China as the biggest coal importer soon

after 2020

Share of global hard coal trade

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2009 2020 2035

India

China

Japan

European Union

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track

Cleaner coal power

Nuclear power

Renewable power

CCS in power

CCS in industry

Industry

Buildings

Fuel economy

Electric vehicles

Biofuels for transport

IEA HELE Roadmap - Rationale

Coal fired power plant build in China

and India making the IEA’s 2DS

scenario (2oC temp rise by 2050)

almost unattainable

No plans to incorporate CCS in the

near or medium term – especially true

in India

SE Asia following an even less climate

friendly path: many smaller, sub-

critical units constructed

So best practice in terms of efficiency

becomes relatively more important

Hence need for High Efficiency, Low

Emissions (HELE) Roadmap for coal

fired power plant

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt

CO

2 1) Deploy USC/ A-USC and

retrofit to raise efficiency

4) CCS with low energy penalty

2) Close older existing coal plants 3) Replace coal plants by gas, renewables, …

Action items for CO2 reduction 1st step 2nd step

1st step (to 2030): 1) Deployment of USC/A-USC, 2) Closure of old plants, 3) Coal to gas/renewables

2nd step (beyond 2030): 4) Deployment CCS with lower energy penalty

USC and A-USC for new installation and retrofit will be largely deployed. Policies enacted to lead to closure of old existing plants. Replacement of coal plants by, eg gas and renewables to be promoted.

Following successful demonstration of large scale integrated plant and reduction of its energy penalty, CCS will be equipped for deployment in both newly installed and existing plants.

Vision: courtesy of Osamu Ito, IEA

HELE technologies reduce the CO2/kWh for

capture

Increasing plant efficiency is important to

reduce the cost of CO2 abatement.

Sh

are

o

f C

CS

(1

=1

00

%)

Efficiency

improvement

CO2

abatement

by CCS

Avera

ge C

O2 in

tensity f

acto

r in

2D

S

(gC

O2/k

Wh)

33% 34% 37% 42% 43%

Raising efficiency significantly reduces the

CO2/kWh emitted

Efficiency in 2DS

Impact of efficiency improvement

on CO2 abatement

Large Scale Integrated CCS Projects

GCCSI – 2012 summary

The size of the challenge is clear

P

rim

ary

energ

y d

em

an

d for

coal (M

tce

)

4DS

2DS

6DS

Medium-Term

Coal Market Report

Near-term projections are not consistent with a low-

carbon scenario

China - CO2 capture and utilisation trials

in the coal-fired power sector

In 2008, Huaneng Group

established a side stream

post-combustion capture

unit on the 800MWe

Gaobadian PC CHP plant in

Beijing, with an annual CO2

capture capacity of 3000

tonnes.

In 2010, Huaneng installed

a larger unit on the 2x660

MWe Shidongkou No. 2

Power Plant in Shanghai,

which can capture 120,000

tonnes of CO2 each year.

In both cases, captured CO2

is sold to the food and

beverage industries.

Summary

Coal extraction and trade are set to continue to expand over

the next 2 decades

Trade will increasingly focus on China, India, and other Asian

countries

The opportunity to limit average global temperature rise to no

more than 2oC is disappearing fast

The coal use community can do better by making more use of

advanced more efficient technologies with commensurate

improvements in clean air

CCS is taking off more slowly than had been hoped. It is

happening with much technical success but hampered by

non-technical issues

The global

resource on the

clean use of

coal

Italy Japan

Rep. of

Korea

UK

Xstrata

BHEL

Anglo American

Thermal Coal

USA

S Africa

Netherlands Group

Austria

Canada

Germany CEC

Beijing Research

Inst Coal Chemistry

Australia

Coal Assoc

NZ Eletrobras Danish Power

Group

Suek

Vattenfall Banpu

Poland

GCCSI

CCC Reports published in the last year (1)

Integrating intermittent renewable energy technologies with

coal-fired power plant

Oct 2011

Pre-combustion capture of CO2 in IGCC plants Nov 2011

Prospects for coal & clean coal technologies in Kazakhstan Dec 2011

Cofiring high ratios of biomass with coal Jan 2012

CO2 abatement in iron and steel making plant Jan 2012

Carbon management for emerging economies Apr 2012

Legislation, standards and methods for mercury Apr 2012

Non-greenhouse emissions from coal fired power plants in China Apr 2012

Market impacts of seaborne trade on coal-importing countries Aug 2012

CO2 emissions from future coal-fired power generation July 2012

Update on lignite firing July 2012

Trace element emissions from coal Aug 2012

Hybrid carbon capture systems Sep 2012

Understanding pulverised coal, biomass and waste combustion Sep 2012

Coal-fired CCS demonstration plants, 2012 Oct 2012

An early deployment strategy for carbon capture, utilisation &

storage technologies

Oct 2012

CCC Reports published in the last year (2)

Reports in draft

Support mechanisms for cofiring secondary fuels

with coal

Coal prospects in the Philippines

Low water FGD technologies

Losses in the coal supply chain

Gaseous emissions from stockpiles

Energy issues for Mongolia

Public attitudes to biomass cofiring

IEA CCC Workshops

Upgrading and efficiency improvements in coal-

fired power plants

Mercury emissions from coal

Underground coal gasification

Advanced ultrasupercritical coal-fired power

plants

Cofiring biomass with coal

UCG Network

Meeting

Network meeting held on August 22-23 in Banff

with 70 UCG experts

Presentations over the two days covered the

status of UCG globally and within Canada

Legal and regulatory issues

Modelling

Project development

Engineering and geosciences, and

financing of UCG projects

19-20th

September 2012

EVN Forum, Vienna, Austria

Current state of A-USC

technology

National

programme

Steam

temperature Efficiency

(LHV, net )

Programme

start date

Demonstration plant

operational by (size) Also includes:

EU 700ºC >50% 1998 2021 (500 MWe) Coatings, biomass co-firing,

cycling

USA 760ºC 45-47%

(HHV, net)

2000 2021 (600 MWe) Oxyfuel, coatings, high

sulphur coal

Japan 700ºC >50% 2008 2021 (600 MW) Biomass co-firing

China 700ºC 46-50% 2011 2021 (660 MWe) -

India 700ºC >50% 2011 2017 (800 MWe) -

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Timeline showing duration between programme start date and the

planned date for an operational demonstration plant

One and a half day event with 16 technical papers covering:

Overview presentations from IEA and IEA CCC

Policies to encourage efficiency improvement

Industrial, national and international efficiency improvement

programmes

Reporting, monitoring and verification of programmes

Technical issues and case studies, and

Basic research

To be held at E.ON’s Technology Centre at Ratcliffe-on-Soar, UK

on 19-20 March 2013

Call for papers now open

http://upgrading2.coalconferences.org