Global Oil and Gas_Temporary Uptick in Refining Margins_Barclays_apr 2014

Equity Research8 April 2014

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 48.

Global Oil & Gas Weekly Temporary uptick in refining margins For the first time since August 2013 our North West European indicator refining margin has been positive for two weeks in a row. Given the turnaround activity currently underway in Europe, we believe the uptick in margins is seasonal and expect it to be short-lived. In particular, we would note that diesel crack spreads have remained largely unchanged over the past few weeks, with higher margins almost entirely driven by a sharp increase in gasoline cracks. It is this relative weakness in the momentum of diesel spreads which supports our view that increasing levels of diesel imports from the US are keeping margins depressed. The situation is further not helped by the increase in the supply of oil products from the Middle-East and Asia with countries here seeking to reduce their dependence on foreign oil products. For this reason, we reiterate our Negative view on the European Refining sector and while there remain some refiners of a much higher quality than others, given the structural weak European refining margin environment, we would not advocate investors retain any exposure to these companies in Europe.

Gasoline cracks have driven the increase in margins: Last week our indicator refining margin for North West Europe averaged $1.6/bl. This is up from $1.0/bl the week before and compares with a seven-month period prior to that of negative margins. This near-term strength in margins has been almost entirely driven by higher gasoline crack spreads, up $8.2/bl over the last two weeks. This compares with diesel crack spreads remaining largely unchanged over the same period. With 1mb/d of refining capacity down for maintenance in April1, the sudden strength in margins is not surprising and we expect it to be short-lived once refineries start to return from maintenance in May.

Gasoline and diesel crack spreads in North West Europe since April 2012, $/bl

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research. 1 FGE Energy

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

$/bl

Gasoline crack spread Diesel crack spread

European Integrated Oil Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 [email protected] Barclays, London

Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 6694 [email protected] Barclays, London

Americas Integrated Oil Paul Y. Cheng, CFA 1.212.526.1884 [email protected] BCI, New York

European Oil Services & Drilling Mick Pickup +44 (0)20 3134 6695 [email protected] Barclays, London

European Oil & Gas: E&P Alessandro Pozzi +44 (0)20 7773 4745 [email protected] Barclays, London

CEEMEA Oil & Gas Matthew Thomas +44 (0)20 7773 3640 [email protected] Barclays, London Caroline Learmonth +27 11 895 6080 [email protected] Absa Capital, Johannesburg

Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas Somshankar Sinha +91 22 6719 6031 [email protected] BSIPL, Mumbai

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

8 April 2014 2

Barclays Research Industries included in this report

Industry Industry view Author(s)

Americas Integrated Oil Positive Paul Cheng CFA

Asia ex-Japan Oil Positive Somshankar Sinha, Clement Chen

CEEMEA Oil Neutral Matt Thomas

European Integrated Oil Positive Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone

European Exploration & Production Positive Alessandro Pozzi

European Oil Services & Drilling Positive Mick Pickup

European Refining & Marketing Negative Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone

Russian Oil Services & Drilling Positive Mick Pickup

US Independent Refiners Positive Paul Cheng, CFA


8 April 2014 3

CONTENTS

CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES ................................ 4

REFINING AND MARKETING MARGINS .................................. 5

TANKER AND EXCHANGE RATES ............................................ 6

INVENTORIES ................................................................................ 7

CRACK SPREADS .......................................................................... 8

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE .................................................. 9

INTEGRATEDS ............................................................................. 10 Valuations........................................................................................................................ 11 Share price performance .............................................................................................. 13

REFINERS ...................................................................................... 17 Valuations........................................................................................................................ 18 Share price performance .............................................................................................. 20

SERVICES ...................................................................................... 24 Valuations........................................................................................................................ 25 Share price performance .............................................................................................. 27

E&PS ............................................................................................... 32 Valuations........................................................................................................................ 33 Share price performance .............................................................................................. 35

GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OILS ....................................... 41 Valuations........................................................................................................................ 42 Share price performance .............................................................................................. 44 The data source for all charts and tables is “Company data, Barclays Research”, unless otherwise stated. Share prices are as of 04 April 2014 at market close, unless otherwise stated.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Corporate Calendar

2014

April

10 Repsol Sustainability day

10 Aker Solutions Annual General Meeting

15 Galp Energia Q1 2014 Trading Update

16 Hunting Q1 2014 Earnings Release

23 OMV Q1 2014 Trading Update

24 Amec Q1 2014 IMSSaipem Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseTechnip Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseTGS Q1 2014 Earnings Release

25 Neste Oil Q1 2014 Earnings Release

29 BP Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseEni Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseGalp Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseStatoil Q1 2014 Earnings Release

30 Aker Solutions Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseShell Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseSubsea 7 Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseTotal Q1 2014 Earnings Release

May

01 BG Group Q1 2014 Earnings Release


8 April 2014 4

Crude oil and natural gas prices

Henry Hub Rockies Russia UK-NBP Zee NE Asia LNG

Date Brent WTI ANS Kern River Dubai OPEC WTI-Maya Brent-Urals $/mBtu $/mBtu $/kcf p/therm p/therm $/mBtu

01-Apr-14 105.3 100.5 106.6 103.3 103.2 102.7 9.8 0.7 4.42 4.42 - 49.38 48.81 15.70

24-Mar-14 106.8 100.6 107.9 103.2 103.9 103.5 10.2 0.8 4.44 4.55 - 54.08 53.58 15.80

17-Mar-14 106.3 99.5 107.6 102.8 103.4 103.2 12.0 0.7 4.31 4.43 - 56.60 55.41 16.10

10-Mar-14 107.5 99.3 106.6 103.1 104.0 104.1 9.2 (0.0) 4.40 4.50 - 58.21 56.83 16.90

Apr-14 105.3 100.5 106.6 103.3 103.2 102.7 9.8 0.7 4.42 4.42 - 49.38 48.81 15.70

Mar-14 107.3 100.5 107.5 104.0 103.9 103.9 10.2 0.9 4.48 4.91 10.94 56.93 55.85 16.75

Feb-14 108.8 100.8 106.6 106.4 104.9 105.3 9.7 1.1 5.96 7.41 11.08 58.97 57.64 19.58

Jan-14 107.4 94.9 103.9 102.8 104.3 105.1 8.2 0.6 4.67 4.70 11.15 65.22 63.61 18.93

2Q 2014 105.3 100.5 106.6 103.3 103.2 102.7 9.8 0.7 4.42 4.42 - 49.38 48.81 15.70

1Q 2014 107.8 98.5 105.9 104.3 104.4 104.9 9.3 0.7 5.04 5.67 11.06 60.37 59.03 18.42

4Q 2013 109.4 97.1 105.0 100.7 106.8 106.5 8.0 0.9 3.85 3.93 11.21 67.89 66.52 18.07

3Q 2013 110.0 105.6 111.0 109.8 106.0 106.7 6.5 (0.1) 3.81 3.40 11.22 65.06 64.96 15.65

2Q 2013 103.0 94.1 104.3 104.7 100.8 101.0 (3.8) 0.9 4.00 3.81 11.72 65.53 67.00 14.69

1Q 2013 112.8 94.3 110.4 113.9 108.0 109.4 (8.4) 2.1 3.50 3.50 12.30 74.27 71.44 17.95

2014 107.6 98.6 105.9 104.2 104.4 104.7 9.3 0.7 4.88 5.36 11.06 57.63 56.48 17.74

2013 108.8 97.9 107.8 107.4 105.4 105.9 0.6 0.9 3.72 3.66 11.61 68.19 67.48 16.59

2012 112.1 94.3 110.9 111.9 109.1 109.6 (5.5) 1.7 2.75 2.68 12.87 59.56 59.32 15.14

2011 111.0 95.1 109.6 112.4 106.1 107.6 (3.6) 1.7 3.94 3.79 11.80 56.84 57.56 13.77

2010 79.7 79.5 78.9 82.8 78.1 77.5 9.2 1.4 4.37 3.94 9.77 42.52 43.06 11.13

2009 62.2 62.1 61.1 64.6 62.1 61.1 5.8 0.6 3.94 3.17 8.21 30.81 31.20 8.91

2008 97.2 99.1 97.9 91.5 93.2 93.5 15.5 3.3 8.82 6.30 10.98 58.11 58.99 11.42

2007 72.7 72.3 71.7 62.3 68.4 68.8 12.5 3.2 6.94 4.10 7.92 29.85 30.38 6.96

2006 65.8 66.2 63.6 55.1 61.6 61.0 15.1 4.9 6.75 5.27 7.19 40.20 43.33 6.46

2005 55.0 56.6 53.7 45.0 49.4 50.7 11.4 4.5 8.91 7.15 5.68 38.30 40.94 5.60

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream Source: Bloomberg, Natural Gas Week, European Gas Markets Source: WGI

Crude - $/blNatural gas


8 April 2014 5

Refining and marketing margins

Date NW Europe US Gulf US W. Coast Singapore Med Eur 6 France Germany Italy UK PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5

01-Apr-14 1.62 6.13 7.76 5.45 1.83 14.41 9.42 15.13 20.15 6.86 13.74 16.00 8.19 29.53 10.42

24-Mar-14 1.02 5.83 4.94 5.93 (0.20) 16.89 13.02 14.38 23.28 10.15 13.76 15.61 8.38 30.98 11.83

17-Mar-14 (1.23) 7.06 3.40 5.87 (1.37) 19.94 16.76 16.19 27.11 12.40 12.60 15.66 5.96 29.99 13.58

10-Mar-14 (1.04) 8.05 4.88 6.08 (1.78) 19.00 15.89 15.13 25.36 11.66 10.90 13.63 4.14 28.71 9.97

Apr-14 1.62 6.13 7.76 5.45 1.83 14.41 9.42 15.13 20.15 6.86 13.74 16.00 8.19 29.53 10.42

Mar-14 (0.52) 6.85 4.55 5.88 (1.14) 18.41 14.92 15.43 24.59 11.25 11.87 14.23 5.43 29.14 10.62

Feb-14 (0.54) 5.85 10.05 5.58 (0.11) 16.25 11.98 14.87 22.32 9.14 10.44 8.47 3.07 22.66 (3.56)

Jan-14 (0.82) 9.28 5.09 5.81 (0.74) 18.16 13.43 15.31 25.48 12.03 13.92 7.51 4.90 22.45 7.23

2Q 2014 1.62 6.13 7.76 5.45 1.83 14.41 9.42 15.13 20.15 6.86 13.74 16.00 8.19 29.53 10.42

1Q 2014 (0.64) 7.48 6.45 5.76 (0.67) 17.61 13.44 15.20 24.13 10.81 12.07 10.07 4.47 24.75 4.76

4Q 2013 (1.45) 6.06 6.08 3.19 (1.20) 18.27 11.46 20.10 24.21 10.23 15.08 8.87 7.08 29.49 5.36

3Q 2013 0.13 3.75 9.37 4.84 -0.68 17.65 10.92 19.37 23.53 9.56 11.71 8.91 7.06 34.63 2.68

2Q 2013 1.28 11.27 13.63 7.35 1.60 18.52 14.14 20.76 22.46 11.98 12.41 20.09 9.87 37.73 4.29

1Q 2013 1.04 18.89 14.09 8.89 2.33 16.83 14.98 15.67 23.80 6.88 12.11 8.83 6.39 17.70 (2.76)

2014 (0.48) 7.38 6.55 5.74 (0.49) 17.36 13.13 15.20 23.83 10.50 12.32 10.31 4.76 24.93 5.34

2013 0.28 9.95 10.86 6.10 0.52 17.80 12.80 18.99 23.48 9.64 12.83 11.57 7.60 29.82 2.29

2012 2.61 18.66 11.31 8.45 3.59 16.69 11.16 18.58 23.46 9.56 12.52 11.46 7.72 28.38 6.87

2011 0.22 15.02 6.91 8.49 1.33 17.74 14.18 14.27 27.47 9.01 11.65 11.46 8.57 17.26 7.08

2010 1.42 1.29 8.37 4.66 2.46 13.81 10.34 11.36 22.55 6.20 9.07 9.42 7.62 14.49 6.14

2009 1.53 1.68 10.34 3.15 2.95 8.03 7.68 9.22 11.91 3.32 8.26 7.55 6.85 9.02 1.41

2008 3.94 1.42 9.51 8.43 6.54 12.54 11.71 9.76 19.83 8.85 13.30 10.86 11.52 13.87 7.58

2007 2.63 5.72 17.56 6.65 6.08 9.32 7.87 8.10 14.90 6.39 10.56 11.35 8.99 13.02 2.39

2006 1.26 3.53 16.94 5.00 6.05 7.60 5.61 5.80 13.61 5.36 12.52 8.64 10.27 11.49 2.60

2005 2.90 4.62 14.16 6.39 6.40 6.55 4.32 3.01 10.87 4.17 9.08 7.16 8.16 8.73 2.64

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: European Energy Commission, Barclays Research Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Refining margins - $/bl US gasoline marketing margins - $/blEuropean marketing margins - $/bl


8 April 2014 6

Tanker and exchange rates

Date Suezmax Aframax Clean Dirty EUR/USD GBP/USD GBP/EUR USD/NOK USD/CAD USD/AUS

01-Apr-14 12,111 14,742 13,579 10,169 1.38 1.66 1.21 5.99 1.10 1.08

24-Mar-14 17,207 15,375 13,356 10,042 1.38 1.66 1.20 6.03 1.11 1.09

17-Mar-14 13,434 18,972 14,333 9,525 1.39 1.66 1.20 6.00 1.12 1.10

10-Mar-14 12,593 13,935 14,221 10,732 1.39 1.66 1.20 5.95 1.11 1.11

Apr-14 12,111 14,742 13,579 10,169 1.37 1.66 1.21 5.99 1.10 1.08

Mar-14 14,344 14,794 14,531 10,110 1.38 1.66 1.20 6.00 1.11 1.10

Feb-14 14,463 15,392 21,143 10,273 1.37 1.66 1.21 6.11 1.11 1.11

Jan-14 57,662 51,898 33,829 10,574 1.36 1.65 1.21 6.15 1.09 1.13

2Q 2014 12,111 14,742 13,579 10,169 1.37 1.66 1.21 5.99 1.10 1.08

1Q 2014 28,823 27,361 23,167 10,319 1.37 1.66 1.21 6.09 1.10 1.11

4Q 2013 23,777 18,715 9,576 10,664 1.36 1.62 1.19 6.06 1.05 1.08

3Q 2013 11,704 13,010 12,432 11,439 1.32 1.54 1.17 5.96 1.04 1.09

2Q 2013 12,134 11,765 11,833 12,983 1.31 1.53 1.18 5.84 1.02 1.01

1Q 2013 15,176 14,118 14,293 21,518 1.32 1.55 1.18 5.63 1.00 0.96

2014 20,467 21,052 18,373 10,244 1.37 1.66 1.21 6.04 1.10 1.10

2013 15,698 14,402 12,033 14,151 1.33 1.56 1.18 5.87 1.03 1.03

2012 17,738 14,881 14,769 13,162 1.29 1.59 1.23 5.82 1.00 0.97

2011 19,239 13,528 10,535 12,644 1.39 1.60 1.15 5.61 0.99 0.97

2010 31,259 19,745 14,956 11,292 1.33 1.55 1.17 6.05 1.03 1.09

2009 28,205 15,969 12,738 8,869 1.39 1.57 1.12 6.29 1.14 1.28

2008 78,573 50,923 37,239 25,508 1.47 1.85 1.26 5.65 1.07 1.20

2007 44,781 35,865 30,533 26,018 1.37 2.00 1.46 5.86 1.07 1.19

2006 52,931 39,338 30,758 27,227 1.26 1.84 1.47 6.41 1.13 1.33

2005 53,579 41,650 37,639 31,145 1.24 1.82 1.46 6.44 1.21 1.31

Source: Clarksons Shipping Weekly Source: Datastream

Tanker rates - $/ship/day Exchange rates


8 April 2014 7

Inventories

US crude oil inventories, m bl US gasoline inventories, m bl US distillate inventories, m bl

240

280

320

360

400

440

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

7 Year Range 2013 2014Week

170

190

210

230

250

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


80

100

120

140

160

180

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


US total inventories, m bl US Refinery Utilisation, % Natural Gas Storage, bcf

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


65

75

85

95

105

Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13

Refinery utilisation Rolling 12 month average

800

1,800

2,800

3,800

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


Non-commercial Paper Positions, m bl Futures Curve - Brent, $/bl Baker Hughes US Rotary Rig Count

050

100150200250300350400450

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

2013 2014Week

707580859095

100105110

Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Brent WTI

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

Gas Rigs Oil Rigs


8 April 2014 8

Crack spreads

European Gasoline Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Diesel Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Naptha Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

-10

0

10

20

30

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range 2013 2014Week

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


European Kerosene Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European LSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European HSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range 2013 2014Week

Brent-Urals Crude Spread, $/bl Brent-WTI Spread, $/bl Brent Spot Price $/bl

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14

-10

0

10

20

30


30

60

90

120

150


Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research


8 April 2014 9

Share price performance

European Integrateds vs European Market European Services vs European Market European Refiners vs European Market

80

85

90

95

100

105

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

6065707580859095

100105


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


European E&P vs European Market European Integrateds vs European Services European Integrateds vs European Refiners

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


85

95

105

115

125

135


60

70

80

90

100

110

120


European Integrateds vs European E&P European Services vs European Refiners European Services vs European E&P

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120


50

60

70

80

90

100

110


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage. Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.


8 April 2014 10

Integrateds


8 April 2014 11

Valuations IntegratedsChange in

Price Target Up/(Down) cons in

Company Rating 04-Apr Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth

MajorsBP U/W 490 550 12 6.4 5.9 5.5 10.9 9.7 9.6 (2.7) 2.3 3.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 50.3 49.3 -1

Chevron* E/W 119 130 9 6.6 7.1 7.1 10.7 12.1 12.7 (1.3) (0.5) (0.5) 3.3 3.6 4.0 15.3 10.4 10.4 9.8 11.1 0

ExxonMobil* E/W 97.4 95.0 (2) 9.1 9.9 10.4 13.2 14.3 15.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 18.5 12.8 12.8 6.8 7.5 -2

Royal Dutch Shell A O/W 2216 2660 20 6.9 6.2 6.1 11.8 10.2 9.8 1.1 2.6 3.0 5.1 5.4 5.6 9.9 10.1 10.1 3.6 3.5 0

Royal Dutch Shell B O/W 2360 2660 13 7.2 6.5 6.4 12.5 10.8 10.5 1.0 2.5 2.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 9.9 10.1 10.1 3.6 3.4 -1

Total O/W 48.7 55.0 13 5.8 5.4 5.1 10.3 10.2 10.2 0.1 2.9 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 12.4 11.6 11.6 4.8 4.9 -1

Arithmetic average 11 7.0 6.8 6.8 11.6 11.2 11.4 0.1 2.1 2.6 4.2 4.5 4.7 12.5 10.7 10.7 -1

Integrated - EuropeBG Group E/W 1136 1350 19 8.6 9.8 8.1 13.9 17.2 13.6 (5.6) (6.2) (0.9) 1.6 1.8 2.0 10.2 8.7 8.7 66.2 68.7 -2

Eni E/W 18.3 20.5 12 6.2 5.8 5.3 14.8 12.4 10.7 (3.7) (0.5) 2.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.5 8.1 8.1 1.5 1.4 -3

Galp O/W 12.7 17.0 34 13.3 14.9 12.1 33.9 35.9 25.2 (2.0) (4.2) (1.7) 2.3 2.7 3.3 5.3 6.4 6.4 0.4 0.4 -4

MOL U/W 13095 14500 11 3.5 5.1 4.4 7.3 10.9 8.8 14.7 9.4 9.8 4.1 2.8 3.4 7.3 6.8 6.8 1203 1550 -6

OMV U/W 33.0 38.0 15 5.0 4.4 4.4 9.7 8.6 8.7 12.1 (2.7) (0.5) 3.8 3.9 4.1 9.3 8.4 8.4 3.9 4.0 -3

Repsol E/W 18.9 23.0 22 6.8 6.4 5.8 18.6 15.7 13.0 (0.0) 4.5 7.0 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.9 6.4 6.4 1.2 1.4 -3

Statoil O/W 169.5 190.0 12 4.6 4.8 4.6 11.4 11.8 11.1 4.8 0.2 1.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 12.3 10.4 10.4 14.3 15.0 0

Arithmetic average 18 6.9 7.3 6.4 15.7 16.1 13.0 2.9 0.1 2.6 3.9 3.8 4.1 7.8 7.9 7.9 -3

Integrated - US*ConocoPhillips O/W 70.2 83.0 18 6.8 6.9 6.8 12.4 12.8 12.1 (0.5) (1.8) (2.0) 3.8 3.9 4.0 11.1 10.1 10.1 5.5 6.2 2

Hess O/W 85.3 90.0 5 6.8 7.6 6.8 15.1 22.2 18.8 (3.6) (0.8) 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2 7.4 5.7 5.7 3.9 4.6 3

Murphy E/W 61.9 65.0 5 5.5 5.1 4.8 13.6 12.8 12.5 (6) (5.5) (1.7) 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.5 7.5 7.5 4.9 5.4 -2

Arithmetic average 10 6.2 6.3 6.0 13.4 15.7 14.5 (2.4) (2.1) (0.5) 2.1 2.3 2.3 9.0 7.6 7.6 0

The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on return on market capitalisation under mid-cycle assumptions.

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. * Chevron, Exxon Mobil and the US Integrateds are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York. The forecasts for these companies are based on assumptions which are aligned but may sometimes differ from those used for the European companies.

EV:EBIDA, xBarclays

2013Cons 2014

P/E, x Dividend yield, % RoACE, %FCF yield, %


8 April 2014 12

Valuations Integrateds

EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %

0

5

10

15

20

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

EV/EBIDA 2014 Average

0

10

20

30

40

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

P/E 2014 Average

01234567

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

Dividend Yield, % 2014 Average

Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %

-5

0

5

10

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

FCF Yield, % 2014 Average

0

5

10

15

20

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

RoACE, % 2014 Average

0102030405060

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

2013 2014

Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV/b, $

-10

-5

0

5

10

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2014 Average

-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.30

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

EPS Growth 2014 Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

BPC

VX

XO

MRD

STO

T

BG ENI

Gal

pM

OL

OM

VRE

PST

L

CO

PH

ESM

UR

EV: 2P reserves 2014 Average

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates


8 April 2014 13

Share price performance Integrateds

Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

OMVXOMCOPENI

CVXSTL

GALPRDSA

BGREPTOT

BPMOL

0 2 4 6 8

BPMOLOMV

RDSABG

REPTOT

XOMCVXENISTL

GALPCOP

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

MOLBG

CVXOMVXOMCOP

BPRDSA

REPENI

GALPTOTSTL

Change in USD share price over last year, % European Integrateds vs Brent European Integrateds vs US Integrateds

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

MOLCVX

OMVXOM

BGENI

GALPRDSA

STLBP

COPREPTOT

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120


85

90

95

100

105

110

115


BP vs European Integrateds Chevron vs US Integrateds ConocoPhillips vs US Integrateds

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

90

95

100

105

110


BP vs Sector BP, p

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

85

90

95

100

105


CVX vs Sector CVX, $

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

9095

100105110115120125130


COP vs Sector COP, $

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.


8 April 2014 14


Exxon Mobil vs US Integrateds Royal Dutch Shell A vs Royal Dutch Shell B Royal Dutch Shell A vs European Integrateds

80

85

90

95

100

105

90

94

98

102

106

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14XOM vs Sector XOM, $

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101


2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

85

88

91

94

97

100

103

106

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14RDSA vs Sector RDSA, p

Total vs European Integrateds BG Group vs European Integrateds Eni vs European Integrateds

343638404244464850

859095

100105110115120125

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14TOT vs Sector TOT, E

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14BG vs Sector BG, p

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

80

85

90

95

100

105

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14ENI vs Sector ENI, E

Galp vs European Integrateds Repsol vs European Integrateds Statoil vs European Integrateds

101111121213131414

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14GALP vs Sector GALP, E

121314151617181920

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14REP vs Sector REP, E

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14STL vs Sector STL, NOK

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.


8 April 2014 15


BP vs Total BP vs Shell Total vs Eni

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


80

90

100

110

120

130


Total vs Shell BG vs Statoil Eni vs Repsol

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


60

70

80

90

100

110


OMV vs Repsol BG vs Eni Eni vs Statoil

60

70

80

90

100

110


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


70

80

90

100

110

120


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research


8 April 2014 16

Share price performance Integrateds Local Price

04-Apr -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 14 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9Hang Seng 22510 -0.2 2.0 5.0 -0.3 1.6 1.6 -3.5 -5.0 2.0 9.9 -6.6 -1.7 13.2

Integrated - MajorsBP 490 1.0 0.9 5.2 -2.9 1.6 1.6 0.6 -1.0 15.4 0.6 -1.4 1.1 39.3Chevron 119 -0.2 0.3 2.7 5.4 -0.1 -0.1 -4.9 -4.8 3.0 2.0 -1.1 9.9 60.3ExxonMobil 97.4 -0.6 -0.3 3.2 2.5 -0.3 -0.3 -3.8 -3.5 17.7 -4.7 -0.5 4.1 52.9Royal Dutch Shell A 26.8 0.3 0.7 2.6 -0.3 0.6 0.6 3.0 2.4 9.0 3.1 -1.4 -5.5 39.2Royal Dutch Shell B 2360 0.7 0.6 3.3 -1.2 0.3 0.3 3.7 3.3 10.1 3.9 -0.8 -6.2 50.5Total 48.7 1.3 0.9 1.7 6.4 1.6 1.6 8.6 6.9 5.1 18.8 1.6 -6.7 15.1Arithmetic Average 0.4 0.5 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 10.0 3.9 -0.6 -0.6 42.9

Integrated - EuropeBG Group 1136 -0.1 1.9 7.6 2.5 1.2 1.2 -12.3 -13.3 12.8 11.1 -1.4 4.2 8.7Eni 18.3 0.4 0.2 1.0 5.0 -0.2 -0.2 4.0 4.1 3.1 10.2 -8.9 -6.9 32.0Galp 12.7 0.4 1.7 6.0 6.0 0.4 0.4 5.7 5.2 -3.0 9.9 -5.8 1.2 2.1OMV 33.0 0.0 1.3 2.0 -2.1 -0.5 -0.5 -5.7 -5.3 -2.6 4.4 5.8 18.1 20.3Repsol 18.9 0.5 1.3 4.4 4.3 1.5 1.5 2.7 1.1 3.1 18.1 3.5 0.7 5.7Statoil 170 1.1 0.2 1.8 7.1 0.1 0.1 16.7 16.5 7.5 8.7 -15.5 -3.1 32.9Arithmetic Average 0.4 1.1 3.8 3.8 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.4 3.5 10.4 -3.7 2.4 16.9

Integrated - USConocoPhillips 70.2 0.0 -0.2 4.1 8.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.9 13.5 0.0 3.6 55.7Cenovus Energy 31.8 0.7 1.8 6.3 13.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.2 -4.1 4.7 -8.8 -7.4 29.8Hess 85.3 -0.3 2.5 4.1 5.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 -0.1 5.5 15.9 -9.6 35.2 6.0Husky Energy 34.7 2.4 7.4 8.4 4.9 5.3 5.3 -0.3 -5.3 10.5 8.0 -7.2 -2.8 24.5Imperial Oil 51.4 -0.1 0.8 2.8 7.1 0.4 0.4 5.8 5.4 1.4 15.1 -6.6 -4.8 17.7Murphy 61.9 0.1 -1.3 0.8 7.4 -1.5 -1.5 -4.6 -3.1 6.6 14.2 -3.8 7.0 21.7Suncor 39.6 1.4 4.4 11.0 9.4 3.0 3.0 2.8 -0.2 -2.6 21.4 -3.1 -8.8 11.6Arithmetic Average 0.6 2.2 5.3 7.9 1.5 1.5 1.1 -0.4 2.6 13.3 -5.6 3.2 23.8

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for

companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted

average for our coverage.


8 April 2014 17

Refiners


8 April 2014 18

Valuations Refiners

Change in



Refiners - Europe

Hellenic E/W 7.11 9.00 27 8.0 6.8 6.2 12.8 8.7 7.9 9.1 13.4 14.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 0.82 0.39 -4

Grupa Lotos E/W 37.8 34.0 (10) 9.6 8.6 8.8 15.4 11.2 12.4 3.6 5.6 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.38 4.25 -3

Motor Oil O/W 9.74 9.50 (2) 9.1 7.3 7.1 14.5 9.6 10.3 11.5 15.1 14.4 5.1 5.1 5.1 7.9 10.7 10.7 1.02 0.92 -7

Neste Oil U/W 15.60 15.5 (1) 6.3 6.6 6.1 9.4 11.8 11.7 15.7 9.0 9.6 4.2 3.4 3.4 10.6 7.9 7.9 1.33 1.21 -4

PKN Orlen U/W 43.4 40.0 (8) 6.2 5.3 4.4 15.2 12.2 9.4 7.4 9.8 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 6.8 6.8 3.57 3.03 -1

Saras U/W 1.25 1.00 (20) 7.0 5.3 4.9 (124) 50 52.0 5.7 10.1 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 2.9 2.9 0.03 -0.02 60

Tupras U/W 45.5 42.8 (6) 8.6 8.2 7.7 7.9 7.6 9.1 (24) 2.9 7.2 8.2 8.9 9.2 18.9 16.9 14.0 6.01 4.64 0

Arithmetic average (2) 10.0 7.9 6.7 (2.5) 14.4 14.5 (3.8) 6.1 11.4 3.0 3.3 3.4 8.2 7.9 7.6 7

Refiners - US*

Alon USA Energy U/W 14.7 14.0 (5) 12.7 6.5 9.2 42.1 11.8 24.6 1.9 9.6 6.0 2.6 2.0 3.1 3.9 5.2 5.2 1.25 0.79 10

Delek US Holdings O/W 29.0 35.0 21 7.2 6.8 7.4 13.2 12.6 14.2 (6.8) 3.1 0.2 2.6 2.6 3.3 16.3 11.7 11.7 2.30 2.67 10

Tesoro O/W 50.6 100 98 7.7 5.3 4.8 16.6 8.7 7.3 3.9 5.0 3.6 1.8 2.6 3.4 10.5 17.2 17.2 5.80 5.59 -5

Valero O/W 54.4 70.0 29 8.5 5.7 5.9 14.7 8.6 9.5 4.1 7.8 6.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 9.5 12.7 12.7 6.35 6.02 3

Arithmetic average 35 9.0 6.1 6.8 21.6 10.4 13.9 0.8 6.4 4.1 2.1 2.3 3.0 10.1 11.7 11.7 5

The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on an assumed discount to the estimated greenfield replacement value.

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. *The US Refiners are covered by Barclays Integrated o il research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York.

Dividend yield, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, %Barclays

2014Cons 2014RoACE, %


8 April 2014 19

Valuations Refiners


0

2

4

6

8

10

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


02468

101214

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO

P/E 2014 Average

0

2

4

6

8

10

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO



-20

-10

0

10

20

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


0

5

10

15

20

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


-50

0

50

100

150

200

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO

2013 2014

Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV: Capital employed, x

-200

20406080

100120

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

HEP

LOT

MO

H

NES

T

PKN

SRS

TUP

ALJ DK

TSO

VLO

EV/Capital Employed 2014 Average

Source: Datastream, Barclays estimates


8 April 2014 20

Share price performance Refiners


-4 -2 0 2 4 6

ELPESRSLTS

ESSRBrent

PKNSectorTUPRS

MOHORL

NES1V

-5 0 5 10 15 20

ELPEBrentMOH

LTSESSR

NES1VORLSRS

SectorPKN

TUPRS

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

ELPEESSRORL

BrentPKNLTS

NES1VTUPRSSectorMOH

SRS

Change in USD share price over last year, % European Refiners vs Brent European Refiners vs US Refiners

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

ESSRORL

TUPRSPKNLTS

BrentELPE

SectorMOH

NES1VSRS

707580859095

100105110115


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


Essar vs European Refiners Hellenic Petroleum vs European Refiners Lotos Group vs European Refiners

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14ESSAR vs Sector ESSR, p

2345678910

50

70

90

110

130

150

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14ELPE vs Sector ELPE, E

20

25

30

35

40

45

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14LTS vs Sector LTS, PLN

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.


8 April 2014 21


Motor Oil vs European Refiners Neste Oil vs European Refiners ORL vs European Refiners

234567891011

50

70

90

110

130

150

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14MOH vs Sector MOH, E

4

8

12

16

20

60708090

100110120130140150160

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14NES1V vs Sector NES1V, E

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14ORL vs Sector ORL, ILS

PKN Orlen vs European Refiners Saras vs European Refiners Tupras vs European Refiners

25

35

45

55

65

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14PKN vs Sector PKN, PLN

0.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.4

60708090

100110120130140150

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14SRS vs Sector SRS, E

202530354045505560

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14Tupras vs Sector TUPRS, TRY



8 April 2014 22


PKN Orlen vs Lotos Group Saras vs Motor Oil Saras vs Neste

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


40

60

80

100

120

140


50

70

90

110

130

150


Neste vs Tupras Tupras vs Saras Hellenic vs Motor Oil

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


60

80

100

120

140

160


Essar vs Neste

10

30

50

70

90

110

130


Source: Datastream, Barclays.


8 April 2014 23

Share price performance RefinersLocal Price


Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9Refiners - EuropeHellenic 7.11 -2.1 -2.8 -6.9 2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -6.8 -4.1 0.6 14.1 -5.0 -1.4 32.8Grupa Lotos 37.8 -1.3 2.6 4.5 -4.3 -1.0 -1.0 5.9 7.0 -1.1 6.6 -14.3 -5.5 57.2MOL 13095 -1.0 4.6 11.6 -0.8 4.3 4.3 -12.6 -16.2 -8.1 -2.7 5.9 -12.4 -4.5Motor Oil 9.74 1.0 3.4 -0.8 9.6 1.9 1.9 17.8 15.6 9.2 10.2 -2.4 -11.1 25.2Neste Oil 15.60 -2.0 6.5 5.0 3.0 4.7 4.7 7.9 3.0 -10.4 48.7 3.4 9.7 -11.0ORL 1.00 2.6 7.4 9.7 3.1 3.8 3.8 -10.8 -11.6 -8.1 -14.1 -15.6 -2.0 26.2PKN Orlen 43.4 1.3 3.0 7.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 5.1 5.3 -5.8 -1.5 -11.5 -1.2 50.4Saras 1.25 -1.6 -4.3 2.9 10.1 -2.1 -2.1 49.5 52.6 -7.7 -1.7 6.4 -6.8 -37.0Tupras 45.5 2.2 5.2 15.3 19.0 1.8 1.8 8.0 6.1 -7.2 -12.7 -19.8 5.3 56.3Arithmetic Average -0.1 2.8 5.5 4.8 1.2 1.2 7.1 6.4 -4.3 5.2 -5.9 -2.8 21.7

Refiners - USAlon 14.7 -2.8 1.8 -6.4 3.3 -1.3 -1.3 -10.9 -9.7 62.3 -27.4 -23.0 5.3 200.0Delek 29.0 -2.7 2.1 -3.7 -1.1 0.0 0.0 -15.6 -15.6 61.9 -24.8 -27.1 55.8 245.4HollyFrontier 47.9 -1.1 1.0 -2.3 3.9 0.7 0.7 -3.5 -4.2 18.8 3.4 -16.7 10.5 262.0Marathon Petroleum 87.1 -0.1 -0.7 -4.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -5.0 -5.1 42.7 -8.6 -20.9 42.2 NASunCoke Energy 23.3 -0.1 2.4 -0.3 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.1 32.9 21.1 -12.0 4.7 NATesoro 50.6 -1.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 -13.5 -13.5 35.7 -15.3 -8.0 32.9 298.3Valero 54.4 -2.5 2.9 1.1 8.3 2.4 2.4 7.9 5.4 48.9 -0.3 -15.4 33.3 97.7Arithmetic Average -1.5 1.4 -2.2 2.8 0.6 0.6 -5.5 -6.1 43.3 -7.4 -17.6 26.4 220.7

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies

under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.


8 April 2014 24

Services


8 April 2014 25

Valuations ServicesChange in



Services - EuropeAker Solutions U/W 94 106 13 9.2 7.7 7.4 19.9 12.6 10.3 (7.1) 8.7 9.2 4.2 4.0 4.4 8.7 11.3 13.9 7.45 7.75 -1

CGG Veritas U/W 11.9 15.0 26 20.3 15.9 12.3 20.1 12.5 9.2 (32) (19) (13) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.7 5.6 0.95 0.71 -18

Hunting O/W 870 1050 21 11.7 10.4 8.9 14.5 13.6 12.1 11.9 8.9 18.1 3.4 3.5 3.9 8.3 9.2 10.1 100.70 95.71 51

Maire Tecnimont O/W 2.80 3.25 16 22.4 12.1 9.2 51.2 15.3 11.7 (23) (0.3) 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 13.1 13.1 0.18 0.15 35

Petrofac U/W 1424 1655 16 11.2 10.1 8.2 11.7 11.9 10.0 (8.7) 3.7 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.8 26.1 21.0 21.9 1.99 1.97 -1PGS O/W 73.0 93.0 27 8.1 6.7 5.8 11.2 8.3 6.6 (6.6) (0.2) 0.7 4.1 4.5 5.3 8.7 10.2 11.3 1.47 1.31 -2

Polarcus E/W 4.65 6.2 33 5.5 5.3 4.2 11.1 6.5 4.1 1.0 3.1 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.12 0.11 -12

Saipem O/W 17.7 20.0 13 22.0 10.0 6.9 (19) 22.0 10.5 (6.1) 7.6 14.1 0.0 1.5 3.1 (1.1) 4.8 8.4 0.81 0.79 -4

SBM Offshore O/W 13.6 18.4 36 -14.9 7.2 7.6 31.4 8.5 5.5 (29) (19) (20) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 10.5 12.3 1.60 1.80 0

Subsea 7 O/W 110 175 59 8.9 6.3 5.8 18.5 10.1 8.7 4.6 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.2 3.7 5.2 9.1 9.9 1.83 1.91 -1

Technip O/W 73.2 100 37 8.0 8.6 6.4 15.6 14.7 10.8 8.7 1.2 9.5 2.5 3.1 3.4 9.8 8.9 11.6 4.99 4.85 -3Tecnicas Reunidas E/W 41.2 49 19 13.2 10.5 7.3 16.1 13.6 12.0 6.6 9.5 9.6 3.4 4.0 4.6 26.3 27.6 27.0 3.03 2.67 -3

TGS U/W 199 180 -9 5.0 4.6 4.2 13.1 12.8 11.8 3.8 5.5 5.8 4.4 4.5 4.2 21.4 19.6 19.4 2.58 2.56 0

Wood Group O/W 795 1025 29 12.0 11.0 9.3 12.3 12.1 10.8 4.9 7.5 7.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 14.3 13.9 15.0 0.65 0.63 0

Arithmetic average 24 10.2 9.0 7.4 16.2 12.5 9.6 (5.0) 1.4 4.3 2.1 2.4 2.7 10.2 11.7 12.8 3Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.

Barclays 2014

Cons 2014

RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Dividend yield, %


8 April 2014 26

Valuations Services


-10-505

1015

AKS

O

CG

G

HT

G

MT

PFC

PLC

S

PG

S

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TR

S

TG

S

WG


0

5

10

15

20

25

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG

P/E 2014 Average

0

1

2

3

4

5

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG



-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


05

1015202530

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


-2000

200400600800

1000

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG

2013 2014

Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV:Capital Employed, x

-20

-10

0

10

20

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

AKS

O

CG

G

HT

G

MT

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TR

S

TG

S

WG


-4

1

6

11

16

AKS

O

CG

G

HTG M

T

PFC

PLC

S

PGS

SPM

SBM

SUB

TEC

TRS

TGS

WG


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates


8 April 2014 27

Share price performance Services


-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

TECPFCSUB

BrentSPM

SectorTREPGSHTG

AKSOCGG

SBMOMTWG

AMC

-20 0 20 40 60 80

AKSOBrentHTGSUBPFCWG

SPMSector

TECTRE

CGGAMCPGS

SBMOMT

-20 0 20 40 60 80

AKSOSBMO

CGGBrent

SUBTRETEC

SectorPGSHTGAMCSPMWGPFCMT

Change in USD share price over last year, % European Services vs US Services Amec vs European Services

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

CGGPGSSUB

AKSOSPM

SectorTECWG

BrentHTGPFC

SBMOTRE

AMCMT

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


700

900

1100

1300

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14AMEC vs Sector AMEC, p

Aker Solutions vs European Services CGG Veritas vs European Services Maire Tecnimont vs European Services

405060708090100110120

65707580859095

100105110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14AKSO vs Sector AKSO, NOK

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14CGG vs Sector CGG, E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1060

110160210260310360410

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14MT vs Sector MT, E

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage


8 April 2014 28


Petrofac vs European Services PGS vs European Services Saipem vs European Services

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14PFC vs Sector PFC, p

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60

70

80

90

100

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14PGS vs Sector PGS, NOK

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

10

30

50

70

90

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14SPM vs Sector SPM, E

SBM Offshore vs European Services Subsea 7 vs European Services Technip vs European Services

0

5

10

15

20

25

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14SBMO vs Sector SBMO, E

80

100

120

140

160

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14SUB vs Sector SUB, NOK

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

80859095

100105110115120125

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14TEC vs Sector TEC, E

Tecnicas Reunidas vs European Services Wood Group vs European Services

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14TRE vs Sector TRE, E

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

80859095

100105110115120

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14WG vs Sector WG, p

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage.


8 April 2014 29


Amec vs Wood Group Saipem vs Technip Petrofac vs Wood Group

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Maire Tecnimont vs Tecnicas Reunidas PGS vs CGG Veritas Petrofac vs Maire Tecnimont

10

60

110

160

210

260

310


70

80

90

100

110

120

130


20

40

60

80

100

120

140


Petrofac vs Tecnicas Reunidas Subsea 7 vs Saipem Subsea 7 vs Technip

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


70

90

110

130

150

170


70

80

90

100

110

120


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research.


8 April 2014 30

Share price performance Services 04-Apr -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 14 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9

Oil Services - EuropeAker 94 0.5 0.9 2.0 -5.9 0.9 0.9 -12.1 -12.8 27.1 2.7 -27.5 -8.2 116.1AMEC 1225 1.8 10.4 11.6 8.8 8.7 8.7 12.8 3.8 3.6 12.7 -5.2 -1.7 33.9CGG Veritas 11.9 2.2 5.5 6.8 -1.2 1.3 1.3 -6.2 -7.5 -25.0 3.7 -2.2 -24.2 75.5Hunting 870 0.9 3.0 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.4 11.7 11.2 -0.4 6.3 -18.0 5.0 93.5Maire Tec 2.80 0.5 9.7 33.9 63.7 2.3 2.3 70.7 66.9 8.5 41.5 -18.2 -10.7 -83.0Petrofac 1424 0.3 0.3 1.9 2.7 -1.5 -1.5 16.5 18.3 -11.6 23.4 -16.8 -17.5 53.0PGS 73.0 4.0 3.3 8.5 14.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.4 -5.1 0.4 -21.7 -9.9 111.9Polarcus 4.65 1.4 2.6 8.0 11.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.5 19.7 -21.3 -26.2 -8.2 84.1Saipem 17.7 -0.8 2.8 3.1 5.2 -0.5 -0.5 13.3 13.9 -3.2 23.5 -47.3 -20.3 26.0SBM 13.58 1.4 7.3 18.1 19.5 2.1 2.1 -8.9 -10.7 1.5 15.3 3.2 19.6 -2.5Subsea 7 110 0.9 1.0 4.9 -3.8 -1.0 -1.0 -3.8 -2.9 -8.9 19.3 -25.7 -1.4 70.6Technip 73.2 -0.1 -2.9 -0.9 1.6 -3.0 -3.0 4.1 7.2 -18.6 13.5 -1.3 -10.3 102.2Tecnicas 41.2 0.2 0.6 5.5 4.2 -0.2 -0.2 3.7 3.9 17.0 -1.9 -2.3 1.5 0.6TGS 199 4.1 4.4 8.4 12.3 1.0 1.0 25.0 23.7 -10.6 1.1 -23.6 15.7 187.6Wood Group 795 4.4 3.2 7.2 6.2 3.1 3.1 16.0 12.5 -12.1 3.5 -7.0 11.4 147.9Arithmetic Average 1.3 3.3 7.8 8.9 0.8 0.8 9.2 8.3 -1.2 9.1 -15.3 -3.9 63.9



8 April 2014 31

Share price performance Services 04-Apr -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 14 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9Oil Services - U.S.Baker Hughes 65.7 0.1 0.6 5.7 7.6 1.0 1.0 18.9 17.7 11.3 5.2 0.9 13.6 -2.1Basic Energy Systems 26.03 -2.4 -3.4 2.3 14.8 -5.0 -5.0 65.0 73.7 22.0 1.7 -3.7 19.8 52.9Bristow Group 76.0 -1.7 0.4 -1.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.8 10.7 0.4 22.9 82.8Cameron Int 64.0 0.3 4.1 1.8 3.5 3.6 3.6 7.5 3.8 0.6 -4.4 -4.0 15.5 74.2CARBO 137.7 -0.4 1.2 13.4 12.4 -0.2 -0.2 18.1 18.4 17.3 51.0 -23.4 16.2 7.2Chart industries 75.9 -3.0 -3.2 -9.2 -15.3 -4.5 -4.5 -20.7 -16.9 -25.1 27.9 19.7 20.0 332.2Core Laboratories 202.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 8.7 1.9 1.9 5.8 3.9 11.4 11.8 13.1 26.2 48.2Diamond Off 48.4 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -15.0 -14.3 -8.8 -9.4 -0.6 2.4 6.5Dresser-Rand 58.5 0.1 3.4 3.7 8.2 0.2 0.2 -1.9 -2.0 -4.8 0.5 -1.3 9.8 78.9Dril-Quip 112.4 -1.7 0.6 5.0 14.9 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.0 -5.4 24.8 5.5 19.3 65.9ENSCO 51.1 0.0 -3.4 0.2 -2.5 -3.2 -3.2 -10.6 -7.7 5.5 -7.3 -0.9 1.2 47.5Exterran Holdings 43.7 -0.5 -0.1 6.1 20.9 -0.4 -0.4 27.8 28.3 21.8 -2.9 9.0 23.2 -15.4FMC Tech 54.7 1.3 4.4 4.1 9.3 4.6 4.6 4.8 0.2 -7.1 -0.7 3.3 27.0 60.4Global Geophysical 0.12 -4.8 -36.3 -75.2 -91.8 1.0 1.0 -92.5 -92.6 -40.4 -42.0 101.7 -36.4 -43.9Gulfmark Offshore 44.1 -2.5 -1.6 -2.6 6.9 -1.8 -1.8 -6.4 -4.6 -7.9 10.4 21.5 13.1 27.7Halliburton 59.3 -0.8 -0.3 2.2 7.3 0.7 0.7 16.9 16.0 4.4 13.4 4.5 16.5 38.9Helmerich & Payne 107.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 13.7 -0.3 -0.3 27.6 27.9 18.6 8.1 4.4 8.4 53.6Hercules Offshore 4.41 -2.0 -4.8 -9.6 -2.9 -3.9 -3.9 -32.4 -29.6 -13.2 4.6 -2.6 20.3 151.8Hornbeck Offshore 39.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.0 1.5 -4.9 -4.9 -19.3 -15.1 -14.8 5.0 17.6 35.3 124.4ION Geophysical 4.10 -1.7 -1.9 -4.4 1.7 -2.6 -2.6 24.2 27.6 -38.1 -13.9 -9.9 4.6 80.8Key Energy Ser 9.38 1.4 1.5 6.8 10.7 1.5 1.5 18.7 17.0 5.5 18.0 -21.0 16.3 -24.1Nabors 24.0 -0.7 -3.1 1.9 9.1 -2.6 -2.6 41.3 45.1 2.9 1.5 -2.0 12.2 -18.0National Oilwell 79.0 1.0 1.7 6.0 5.6 1.4 1.4 -0.7 -2.1 0.9 12.1 -1.2 3.5 105.6Noble Corp. 31.3 -0.6 -3.6 -1.0 0.4 -4.4 -4.4 -16.5 -12.6 -2.2 -0.5 -0.7 9.6 6.9Oceaneering 73.4 -0.1 2.0 0.0 6.1 2.2 2.2 -6.9 -8.9 -3.2 9.1 8.9 23.5 143.8Parker Drilling 6.96 -1.8 -0.7 -4.7 -12.2 -1.8 -1.8 -14.4 -12.8 38.7 13.1 16.4 -7.0 27.1Patterson-UTI 31.4 1.0 -0.5 0.4 5.9 -1.0 -1.0 23.9 25.1 15.1 6.0 -15.6 28.0 42.9Rowan Comp 32.5 0.2 -2.7 -1.8 0.6 -3.6 -3.6 -8.2 -4.8 -4.9 6.7 -1.8 13.1 44.2Schlumberger 98.0 0.0 0.5 5.8 8.8 0.5 0.5 8.8 8.2 1.2 21.4 -3.2 8.1 25.4Seacor 86.7 -0.9 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 -5.0 -5.2 -0.4 7.3 14.6 13.3 20.0Seadrill 213 0.7 2.8 2.8 -3.1 0.6 0.6 -13.0 -13.5 -10.5 9.1 10.4 -0.6 104.7Superior Energy 30.7 -0.2 1.4 4.3 9.5 -0.4 -0.4 15.2 15.6 4.0 -4.2 4.3 25.3 10.9Tenaris 16.3 0.6 2.1 4.1 5.6 1.3 1.3 2.1 0.8 -7.3 14.9 -1.6 -0.9 17.4Tetra 12.63 -3.6 0.1 0.6 5.0 -1.3 -1.3 2.2 3.6 -3.4 19.0 6.0 35.2 -13.0Thermon 23.8 -1.0 3.9 -4.3 -2.4 2.6 2.6 -13.0 -15.2 18.4 11.3 -7.4 -1.4 NATidewater 48.7 -0.6 0.6 1.7 2.9 0.2 0.2 -17.8 -18.0 0.6 3.9 13.4 13.0 16.6Transocean 41.6 0.7 1.0 3.0 -3.5 0.7 0.7 -15.8 -16.3 9.9 -7.8 -6.1 16.3 -8.7Weatherford 17.3 0.3 -0.3 3.2 15.4 -0.3 -0.3 11.7 12.1 -3.1 10.8 12.8 8.5 -15.4Arithmetic Average -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 2.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.9 1.5 0.3 6.5 4.8 13.0 47.5



8 April 2014 32

E&Ps


8 April 2014 33

Valuations E&P - Europe

Change in


Company Rating 04-Apr Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F NAV NAV last mnth

E&Ps - Europe

Afren O/W 143 225 57 3.0 4.6 4.3 7.3 9.6 7.7 0.5 (1.5) (0.7) 30.5 31.7 29.2 225 207 7

Africa Oil O/W 45.9 75.0 63 nm nm nm nm nm nm (12) (16) (17) (54) (15.7) 28.0 75 83 1

Bowleven O/W 30 135 346 nm nm nm nm nm nm (16) (2) (5) (3) (3) (7) 135 142 -37

Enquest U/W 123 155 26 4.0 3.1 1.4 8.5 6.1 6.4 (32) 29.7 31.0 0 0.0 (0.2) 155 163 5

Oryx Petroleum O/W 14.9 20.0 34 nm nm nm nm nm nm (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0) 0.2 0.7 20 19 0

Premier Oil O/W 309 485 57 6.4 5.5 3.8 11.6 8.3 7.5 (13) (16) 12.0 68 88.1 67.5 485 457 -3

Rockhopper Exploration O/W 103 235 129 nm nm nm nm nm nm (5.1) (11) (4.7) (90) (75.4) (70.3) 235 280 -1

Salamander Energy E/W 106 130 23 3.6 - - nm nm nm (17) (5.7) 10.9 149 154.7 117.3 130 187 -2

Soco International U/W 396 415 5 7.1 8.5 8.0 20.3 11.2 9.6 9.5 6.3 8.6 (20) (20.5) (24.6) 415 428 3

Tullow Oil O/W 800 1490 86 19.3 13.6 14.1 67.1 28.0 26.5 (3.1) (7.5) (10) 35 50.9 69.8 1490 1236 -3

Arithmetic average 79 5.1 6.8 5.6 18.0 14.2 10.7 (9) (4.8) (0.4) 6.3 15.5 16.8 18.8 -2Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.

21.0 9.3

15.7 14.7

38.3 15.2

73.8

EV/2P+2Cx

8.2

-

13.1

6.6

- 1.4

17.5

11.5 5.2

7.3

0.9

16.5

-

Barclays 2014

Cons 2014

EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Net Debt/Equity, %EV/2P

x


8 April 2014 34

Valuations E&P - Europe

EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Free cash flow yield, %

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW

P/E 2014 Average

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, % Dollar EPS Growth, y/y % EV:2P, x

-100%-60%-20%20%60%

100%140%180%

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

2013 2014

-150%-100%

-50%0%

50%100%150%200%

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


0

10

20

30

40

50

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


EV/2P+2C, x Datastream consensus relative to Barclays NAV, % ROACE, %

0

5

10

15

20

25

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


-20

-10

0

10

20

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

AFR

AO

IL

BLV

N

CN

E

ENQ

OX

C

PMO

RKH

SMR

SIA

TLW


Source: Datastream


8 April 2014 35

Share price performance E&P - Europe


-2 0 2 4 6 8

ENQBrentCNESIA

AFRSector

AOILRKH

BLVNSMDR

OXCPMOTLW

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

ENQCNE

AOILBLVN

RKHAFR

SectorSIA

BrentPMOTLW

SMDROXC

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

CNERKH

BLVNAOILAFRENQ

SMDRSector

TLWBrentPMO

SIA

Change in USD share price over last year, % European E&P vs Brent European E&P vs European market

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20

BLVNSMDR

CNETLWRKH

PMOENQ

SectorBrent

AFRAOIL

SIA

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


Afren vs European E&P Bowleven vs European E&P Cairn Energy vs European E&P

100110120130140150160170180

80

90

100

110

120

130

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14AFR vs Sector AFR, p

2030405060708090100110

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14BLVN vs Sector BLVN, p

140160180200220240260280300320

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14CNE vs Sector CNE, p

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage.


8 April 2014 36

Share price performance E&P - Europe

Enquest vs European E&P Premier Oil vs European E&P Rockhopper Exploration vs European E&P

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

80859095

100105110115120

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14ENQ vs Sector ENQ, p

260280300320340360380400420

65

75

85

95

105

115

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14PMO vs Sector PMO, p

8090100110120130140150160170

60

70

80

90

100

110

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14RKH vs Sector RKH, p

Salamander Energy vs European E&P Soco International vs European E&P Tullow Oil vs European E&P

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

40

60

80

100

120

140

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14SMDR vs Sector SMDR, p

280

330

380

430

480

530

9095

100105110115120125130

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14SIA vs Sector SIA, p

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

6065707580859095

100105

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14TLW vs Sector TLW, p

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage


8 April 2014 37

Share price performance E&P-Europe

Tullow Oil vs Cairn Energy Bowleven vs Salamander Energy Cairn Energy vs Premier Oil

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


50

70

90

110

130

150

170


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


Tullow Oil vs Soco International Soco International vs Premier Oil Premier Oil vs Tullow Oil

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


80

100

120

140

160

180


70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Afren vs Cairn Energy Afren vs Premier Oil Afren vs Soco International

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210


80

100

120

140

160

180


60

70

80

90

100

110

120


Source: Datastream, Barclays.


8 April 2014 38

Share price performance E&P - Europe & Israel 04-Apr -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 14 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9

E&P - EuropeAfren 143 0.2 0.5 -3.1 -7.7 0.8 0.8 -15.3 -16.0 26.4 11.6 -9.1 1.0 78.1Africa Oil 8 1.7 6.6 -10.0 -13.5 3.6 3.6 -20.0 -22.7 3.5 18.6 -3.3 0.7 549.4BowLeven 30.3 0.9 1.4 -9.9 -3.8 2.9 2.9 -20.3 -22.5 -31.3 1.9 -38.4 36.6 -44.2Cairn Energy 167 -0.2 -2.2 5.6 -14.1 -0.7 -0.7 -38.2 -37.7 5.1 8.9 -7.9 -3.5 -37.3Enquest 123 2.1 -2.7 -13.4 -15.1 -1.2 -1.2 -8.4 -7.3 6.8 16.9 -18.0 11.8 34.4Premier Oil 309 3.7 5.3 4.4 2.8 4.2 4.2 -1.4 -5.3 -2.2 2.1 -14.7 7.9 18.1Rockhopper Exploration 103 10.2 2.0 -1.8 -15.3 2.5 2.5 -33.4 -35.1 21.3 9.8 -18.6 -8.7 -41.1Salamander Energy 106 1.0 0.7 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.4 -5.4 -8.6 2.7 -15.2 -31.0 2.2 11.1Soco International 396 1.6 -1.7 -5.1 -11.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 32.2 -7.4 -2.0 0.2Tullow Oil 800 0.0 5.0 3.8 1.5 6.4 6.4 -6.3 -11.9 -15.2 3.8 -19.0 -8.8 36.8Arithmetic Average 1.7 1.5 -2.1 -7.2 1.8 1.8 -17.3 -18.8 0.3 8.3 -14.4 3.2 82.0E&P - IsraelAvner 3.46 0.8 2.8 5.3 9.1 2.5 2.5 8.3 3.3 10.0 15.8 -3.6 4.5 58.7Delek Drilling 19.6 0.7 1.5 3.5 8.4 1.7 1.7 7.1 2.5 4.9 19.7 -4.6 4.9 61.8Delek Energy Systems 2350 -0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 4.7 4.7 -2.2 -9.1 3.7 37.0 3.6 5.3 68.7Isramco Negev 0.77 1.4 2.3 4.9 10.7 3.9 3.9 9.4 3.8 9.4 7.2 -6.4 9.1 38.4Ratio Oil 0.51 -0.6 2.7 3.6 5.8 2.0 2.0 13.5 8.1 6.6 30.4 -1.8 0.3 65.8Arithmetic Average 0.4 1.9 3.4 7.6 3.0 3.0 7.2 1.7 6.9 22.0 -2.6 4.8 58.7

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.


8 April 2014 39

Share price performance E&P – Canada 04-Apr -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 14 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9E&P - (Canada)ARC Resources 30.9 1.2 2.9 4.7 4.5 2.1 2.1 1.2 -0.9 9.4 -2.5 -0.7 7.6 32.4Athabasca 8.0 2.6 1.6 1.5 -7.8 0.5 0.5 18.8 18.3 -18.5 23.2 -28.4 -14.8 1.4Baytex Energy 45.5 0.6 1.0 3.7 14.3 0.5 0.5 5.7 5.2 -4.8 14.6 -14.3 -2.7 44.0BlackPearl Resources 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 1.0 1.0 12.6 11.5 16.1 20.8 -34.2 -24.6 14.8Bonavista Energy 17.0 2.1 6.6 7.4 9.8 5.6 5.6 18.1 11.8 4.9 -3.2 -11.4 -1.2 -30.6Canadian Natural Res 43.7 0.7 4.6 6.5 7.6 3.6 3.6 17.6 13.5 6.4 11.6 -11.7 11.5 -13.4Canadian Oil Sands 23.1 1.2 1.2 7.1 12.6 0.2 0.2 11.9 11.7 -2.2 4.7 -10.6 1.8 -20.2Crescent Point 40.7 1.2 2.0 2.2 6.1 1.4 1.4 -4.6 -5.8 2.1 11.7 -10.5 -0.1 8.2Enerplus 21.7 -1.4 -0.6 1.0 2.3 -1.3 -1.3 8.8 10.2 8.4 12.1 2.0 12.8 -39.8Legacy Oil & Gas 7.7 3.1 6.7 12.6 22.9 6.3 6.3 21.3 14.2 -10.6 36.6 -12.8 -22.1 -36.2Lightstream 6.0 3.3 6.0 8.3 -4.2 7.4 7.4 -1.2 -8.0 -25.3 -3.4 -12.5 -15.6 -48.3Oryx Petroleum 14.9 2.7 3.8 4.6 12.8 4.6 4.6 3.1 -1.4 -5.1 4.9 NA NA NAParamount Resources 51.1 2.8 6.8 14.7 12.5 7.7 7.7 27.2 18.1 3.1 3.1 -6.1 14.9 84.0Pengrowth Energy 6.9 0.7 2.3 3.7 -7.4 3.3 3.3 1.3 -2.0 3.7 19.8 -3.2 2.6 -45.7Penn West Petroleum 9.4 0.2 2.8 1.4 8.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 0.3 -26.9 5.2 -0.8 -0.9 -43.2Petrobank Energy 0.4 3.2 0.9 -3.1 -10.4 0.6 0.6 5.1 4.5 -17.0 -11.7 -32.0 -36.1 -35.9Peyto E&P 38.5 3.5 3.7 8.0 10.4 2.6 2.6 14.6 11.7 3.8 2.3 9.2 14.9 68.6Trilogy Energy 28.2 1.8 4.0 7.4 7.3 4.7 4.7 -1.0 -5.4 -5.6 -4.6 2.6 -1.4 235.1Vermilion Energy 69.4 0.0 1.3 5.4 11.2 1.1 1.1 7.8 6.6 5.3 12.5 -5.7 -0.8 64.9Whitecap Resources 12.8 2.3 3.0 4.6 10.9 4.7 4.7 -1.6 -6.0 1.4 13.2 8.1 9.6 84.8Arithmetic Average 1.7 3.0 5.1 6.3 2.9 2.9 8.5 5.4 -2.6 8.5 -9.1 -2.4 17.1



8 April 2014 40

Share price performance E&P – US Local Price


Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9E&P - USAnadarko 101.1 2.1 19.0 20.9 22.8 19.2 19.2 27.4 6.9 -15.1 7.1 -0.5 17.7 99.9Apache 85.5 0.1 3.0 5.9 1.1 3.0 3.0 -0.5 -3.5 -0.6 2.2 9.3 -1.7 -6.2Bill Barrett 25.3 -2.2 -1.0 -4.3 3.3 -1.2 -1.2 -5.6 -4.4 3.6 22.5 0.6 13.9 -41.6Cabot Oil & Gas 34.6 -2.6 2.2 4.9 -4.2 2.0 2.0 -10.8 -12.6 4.5 5.7 6.4 35.9 218.0Chesapeake 26.6 -0.1 3.6 7.8 0.1 3.8 3.8 -2.0 -5.6 3.4 24.6 0.1 22.8 -20.2Cimarex 115.8 -0.8 -3.3 -2.8 2.9 -2.8 -2.8 10.4 13.5 6.0 45.2 -11.7 30.7 -17.7Comstock 23.4 -2.4 3.8 9.7 19.4 2.3 2.3 27.8 24.9 13.7 -0.6 -0.3 7.5 -44.7Concho Resources 124.9 -0.7 0.5 3.9 8.9 2.0 2.0 15.7 13.4 -5.0 29.6 -14.0 20.9 49.1Denbury Resources 16.8 -0.1 0.5 1.9 5.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 -0.2 -12.7 5.7 -4.8 15.1 11.7Devon 68.0 -0.7 3.4 6.1 6.8 1.6 1.6 9.9 8.2 5.6 10.5 -6.6 8.4 -14.2Encana 22.0 0.0 2.9 8.6 16.6 3.1 3.1 22.1 18.4 4.0 2.5 -11.9 -1.5 -35.1EOG Resources 99.8 -0.9 1.2 4.1 12.1 1.7 1.7 18.9 16.9 -2.5 25.1 2.5 6.0 21.9Exco Resources 5.9 0.7 6.7 11.6 23.3 5.0 5.0 10.7 5.5 -21.9 -9.2 10.1 5.3 -54.6Forest Oil 1.9 -1.6 0.0 1.6 -38.3 -0.5 -0.5 -47.4 -47.1 -43.5 47.7 -18.0 -21.4 -65.2Gulfport Energy Corp. 70.8 0.2 1.7 4.7 12.5 -0.5 -0.5 12.2 12.8 -4.0 34.3 3.7 19.9 219.0Jones Energy 15.1 -3.9 0.5 11.0 -14.5 -0.1 -0.1 4.5 4.6 -13.3 NA NA NA NAKosmos 10.8 -1.6 -2.1 -1.9 1.2 -2.3 -2.3 -3.8 -1.6 7.3 -1.2 -9.8 -8.5 NAMarathon Oil 35.6 -0.3 1.1 3.5 7.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 2.9 10.0 63.7Newfield Exploration 32.3 -0.2 2.2 7.2 30.6 2.8 2.8 30.9 27.3 -11.7 13.3 8.9 -16.3 -44.0Noble Energy 70.4 -1.3 -1.1 4.8 5.2 -1.0 -1.0 3.3 4.3 0.2 11.9 3.5 13.7 66.2Occidental 94.6 -2.0 -1.0 0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.8 3.9 13.0 2.3 -0.2Penn Virginia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAPioneer Natural 189.0 -2.0 0.1 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 1.7 -5.3 26.9 17.8 16.6 80.9QEP Resources 31.4 1.0 5.6 8.4 -0.9 6.6 6.6 2.4 -3.9 8.5 -1.6 -11.4 5.2 3.3Quicksilver 2.7 -2.6 0.4 1.5 -22.8 1.5 1.5 -13.0 -14.3 41.5 18.0 -35.4 -21.3 -74.5Range Resources 86.5 -1.5 1.5 -0.7 1.0 4.3 4.3 2.6 -1.6 11.0 -1.6 -3.8 29.0 56.3Resolute 7.1 -0.8 0.3 -5.3 -22.2 -0.8 -0.8 -20.9 -20.3 6.5 3.9 -29.5 41.6 -34.7Sandridge 6.4 -1.4 2.7 -0.2 0.6 4.9 4.9 6.1 1.2 -1.6 21.3 -8.5 -17.0 7.3SM Energy 73.6 -1.7 2.6 3.9 1.0 3.2 3.2 -11.4 -14.2 6.3 27.4 1.7 13.4 30.0Southwestern Energy 46.8 -0.1 2.1 0.4 9.3 1.7 1.7 18.9 17.0 8.4 -0.9 -1.2 11.5 -14.0Stone Energy 42.6 -0.6 0.6 8.2 20.6 1.6 1.6 23.3 21.3 3.2 43.4 3.0 6.0 81.9Swift Energy 10.5 -3.6 -2.9 0.8 -13.0 -2.1 -2.1 -22.0 -20.3 11.9 -5.4 -16.4 -3.8 -42.1Talisman 11.3 0.2 3.0 1.6 -1.7 3.1 3.1 -11.5 -14.1 -3.2 0.6 -7.3 8.2 -25.3Ultra Petroleum 29.0 2.9 7.2 13.8 15.5 7.8 7.8 33.9 24.2 4.0 3.7 0.3 10.9 -59.3W&T Offshore 17.7 -0.5 3.2 4.6 18.0 2.0 2.0 10.4 8.2 -11.5 21.7 5.0 -11.4 74.4Whiting PTL 72.4 1.4 3.4 3.4 15.5 4.4 4.4 17.1 12.2 0.2 27.3 -8.4 17.2 12.0WPX Energy 19.4 -1.5 8.6 4.4 8.0 7.5 7.5 -4.9 -11.5 4.8 1.7 19.7 7.7 NAArithmetic Average -0.8 2.2 4.6 4.4 2.3 2.3 5.0 2.5 -0.5 12.7 -3.9 8.6 15.2



8 April 2014 41

Global Emerging Market Oils


8 April 2014 42

Valuations GEM Change in



Integrated - RussiaBashneft E/W 55.5 71.0 28 5.1 4.4 3.9 7.2 5.8 5.2 14.2 9.1 12.4 11.3 6.7 9.2 21.6 21.1 21.1 9.61 10.03 4

Gazprom O/W 7.8 9.5 21 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 4.2 7.3 9.4 5.2 5.5 9.0 12.2 9.0 9.0 1.49 1.40 1

Gazprom Neft O/W 20.2 25.0 24 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.5 4.9 (7.0) (0.0) 6.9 7.5 7.1 18.0 13.6 13.6 1.22 1.24 2

Lukoil E/W 55.8 70.0 25 2.8 2.3 1.8 4.0 4.1 3.9 5.0 5.4 14.3 5.7 6.5 7.4 12.8 11.1 11.1 13.72 13.92 0

Novatek O/W 107 140 31 10.0 7.7 6.8 10.7 8.4 7.6 3.2 5.0 6.1 2.8 3.6 3.3 24.0 24.7 24.7 1.28 1.06 0

Rosneft U/W 6.6 7.3 11 5.5 4.9 4.8 5.8 5.0 5.3 (4.7) 11.1 7.9 5.7 5.0 4.8 11.6 8.5 8.5 1.32 1.34 1

Surgutneftegas U/W 7.4 7.3 (1) (0.7) (1.1) (1.4) 3.4 3.1 3.9 26.0 22.8 14.2 3.1 3.8 3.0 21.5 18.7 18.7 0.24 0.19 15

Tatneft E/W 35.3 40.0 13 4.1 3.5 3.2 5.5 4.8 4.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 4.6 5.2 5.2 16.1 15.8 15.8 1.22 1.08 1

Arithmetic average 19 4.0 3.4 3.1 5.4 4.6 4.6 8.2 8.4 9.8 5.7 5.5 6.1 17.2 15.3 15.3 3

Integrated - OtherPetrobras E/W 13 20 50 7.8 8.5 6.5 7.7 8.0 5.1 (22) (12) (2.2) 3.1 4.6 5.3 4.9 4.8 6.7 1.65 1.74 -8

Sasol O/W 582 650 12 10.9 11.9 10.6 11.0 10.5 10.0 4.5 0.4 (11) 3.3 4.2 4.5 18.5 16.9 16.6 55.18 53.05 0

Arithmetic average 31 9.3 10.2 8.5 9.4 9.3 7.6 (9) (6.0) (6.5) 3.2 4.4 4.9 11.7 10.9 11.6 -4

ServicesC.A.T. Oil E/W 15.6 8.0 (49) 9.2 8.2 6.8 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 12.3 12.3 0.95 0.97 -7

COSL O/W 19.4 25.8 33 2.9 2.7 2.7 14.5 14.1 13.8 8.4 9.1 9.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 8.4 7.4 7.4 1.38 1.95 1

Eurasia Drilling O/W 25.0 42.0 68 3.5 2.4 1.2 nm nm nm 8.3 10.1 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 18.0 18.0 4.08 2.66 -8

Integra O/W 17.2 4.5 (74) 17.7 14.1 11.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 2.7 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 21.8 21.8 0.59 3.35 nm

Arithmetic average (5) 8.3 6.9 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.9 7.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 13.3 14.9 14.9 -4

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.

Barclays 2014

Cons 2014

RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %FCF yield, %


8 April 2014 43

Valuations GEM


-5

0

5

10

15

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


02468

1012

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL

P/E 2014 Average

0

2

4

6

8

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


Free cash flow yield, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, % Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS,%

-10-505

10152025

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


-100

-50

0

50

100

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL

2013 2014

-10-505

10152025

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


EV/Capital Employed, x ROACE, % Dollar EPS Growth y/y , %

-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


05

1015202530

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASH

GA

ZP

GA

ZN

LKO

H

NV

TK

ROSN

SRG

T

TATN

PBRA

SASL


Source: Datastream


8 April 2014 44

Share price performance GEM


-4 -2 0 2 4

NVTK

GAZN

ROSN

SOL

PBR

LKOH

SUR

GAZ

BAN

TAT

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

NVTK

ROSN

SUR

TAT

GAZN

SOL

BAN

LKOH

GAZ

PBR

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20

NVTK

SUR

ROSN

LKOH

GAZN

GAZ

TAT

PBR

BAN

SOL

Change in USD share price over last year, % Russian Oils vs Brent Russian Oils vs Market

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

PBR

SUR

ROSN

LKOH

TAT

GAZ

GAZN

NVTK

BAN

SOL

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


80

90

100

110


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index.


8 April 2014 45

Share price performance Russia

RTS vs Urals Sector vs RTS Gazprom vs RTS

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


80859095

100105110115120125


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

707580859095

100105110115


GAZP vs RTS GAZP, $

Lukoil vs RTS Rosneft vs RTS Novatek vs RTS

40

50

60

70

80

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14LKOH vs RTS LKOH, $

4

6

8

10

70

80

90

100

110

120


ROSN vs RTS ROSN, $

60708090100110120130140150

60708090

100110120130140


NVTK vs RTS NVTK, $

Rosneft vs Lukoil Novatek vs Sector Gazprom vs Novatek

707580859095

100105110115


80

90

100

110

120

130

140


60

70

80

90

100

110


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Russia RTS index.


8 April 2014 46

Share price performance Russia

CAT Oil vs Russian Oil Services Eurasia Drilling vs Russian Oil Services Integra vs Russian Oil Services

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


CAT vs Sector CAT, E

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


EDCL vs Sector EDCL, $

0

5

10

15

20

25

5505

1,0051,5052,0052,5053,0053,5054,005


INTE vs Sector INTE, $

CAT Oil vs Brent Eurasia Drilling vs Brent Integra vs Brent

80

130

180

230

280


100110120130


1,010

2,010

3,010

4,010

5,010

6,010


CAT Oil vs Eurasia Eurasia vs Integra Integra vs CAT

60

110

160

210

260

310


50

100

150

200


505

1,005

1,505

2,005

2,505

3,005


Source: Datastream, Barclays Research


8 April 2014 47

Share price performance GEM

Local Price04-Apr -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 1Q 14 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12

Indices & marketsFTSE All 3605 0.7 1.0 2.6 -2.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.9 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 33.8StoxxEuro 330 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 2.9 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 14.5S&P 500 1865 -1.3 0.4 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.3 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 38.8MSCI EMG 1932 0.4 1.5 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 19.9MSCI Russia 722 2.3 4.2 9.2 -5.5 0.4 0.4 -15.2 -15.5 -1.3 13.3 -11.3 -3.5 18.9Integrated - RussiaBashneft 1970 3.0 4.3 8.1 -9.3 2.2 2.2 -8.3 -10.2 2.7 4.4 -10.2 7.2 63.5Gazprom 7.83 3.5 6.2 14.6 -7.8 1.8 1.8 -8.4 -9.9 -5.3 33.9 -23.0 -9.6 2.7Gazprom Neft 20.2 1.4 -0.3 7.6 -4.0 -2.0 -2.0 -10.7 -8.9 1.8 21.3 -15.6 -9.0 30.2Lukoil 55.8 1.6 5.0 6.6 -2.1 0.4 0.4 -10.7 -11.0 -1.8 9.3 -10.9 -2.7 32.3Novatek 106.8 1.7 3.4 11.1 -14.8 -2.9 -2.9 -22.0 -19.7 3.9 10.8 10.9 -10.0 67.3Rosneft 6.55 1.4 1.1 1.0 -6.4 -1.6 -1.6 -14.0 -12.6 -6.8 16.7 -10.2 -14.4 50.5Surgutneftegas 7.41 1.6 3.6 2.7 -4.4 0.6 0.6 -14.2 -14.7 -0.7 10.6 -12.3 1.6 4.4Tatneft 35.3 5.7 5.1 10.8 -2.2 3.0 3.0 -7.6 -10.4 -3.5 6.4 -8.2 -9.2 60.2Arithmetic Average 2.5 3.5 7.8 -6.4 0.2 0.2 -12.0 -12.2 -1.2 14.2 -9.9 -5.8 38.9Integrated - OtherPetrobras 13.3 1.3 1.0 14.8 16.4 1.2 1.2 -3.4 -4.6 -11.8 16.6 -18.3 -14.9 -42.1Sasol 582 1.0 -1.6 5.6 9.4 -1.4 -1.4 12.5 14.1 2.9 7.8 -2.0 3.8 22.5Arithmetic Average 1.2 -0.3 10.2 12.9 -0.1 -0.1 4.6 4.8 -4.5 12.2 -10.2 -5.5 -9.8

ServicesC.A.T. Oil 15.64 -1.3 6.6 12.6 -12.3 0.7 0.7 -23.7 -24.2 48.1 21.6 26.7 37.6 1.9China Oilfield Systems 19.4 -0.1 5.2 3.4 -9.1 6.6 6.6 -19.4 -24.4 23.7 28.1 -6.6 1.6 74.5Eurasia Drilling 25.0 -1.4 0.4 9.7 -13.0 -2.5 -2.5 -44.4 -43.0 13.1 3.9 5.2 -0.6 87.9Integra 17.20 1.2 1.2 51.7 14.8 1.2 1.2 2.1 0.9 16.7 4713.3 -16.3 -10.7 -81.6Arithmetic Average -0.4 3.4 19.4 -4.9 1.5 1.5 -21.4 -22.7 25.4 1191.7 2.3 7.0 20.7

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index


8 April 2014 48

ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):

We, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Paul Y. Cheng, CFA, Mick Pickup, Alessandro Pozzi, Matthew Thomas, Caroline Learmonth and Somshankar Sinha,hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities orissuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Barclays Research is a part of the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and eachindividually, "Barclays"). For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a writtenrequest to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barclays.comor call 212-526-1072.

The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's totalrevenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Research analysts employed outside the US by affiliates of Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.These analysts may not be associated persons of the member firm and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and incorporated NYSERule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’saccount.

Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from acceptingpayment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.

In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer tohttps://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/disclaimer/disclaimer-research-dissemination.html. In order to access Barclays ResearchConflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: http://group.barclays.com/corporates-and-institutions/research/research-policy.

The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamentalanalysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differfrom recommendations contained in other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, orotherwise.

Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)

Afren Plc (AFRE.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 1.43), Overweight/Positive, F/J

Africa Oil Corp. (AOIC.ST, 04-Apr-2014, SEK 45.90), Overweight/Positive, J

Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL, 04-Apr-2014, NOK 94.20), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

Alon USA Energy (ALJ, 04-Apr-2014, USD 14.74), Underweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/L/O

Bashneft (BANE.MM, 04-Apr-2014, USD 55.39), Equal Weight/Neutral, D/J/K/L/M/N

Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to Buroil & GasLimited in connection with its potential sale to Bashneft. The ratings, price targets and estimates on Bashneft do not incorporate this potentialtransaction.

BG Group (BG.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 11.36), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Bowleven PLC (BLVN.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 0.30), Overweight/Positive, A/D/F/J/K/L/N/Q

BP (BP.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 4.90), Underweight/Positive, C/D/F/G/J/K/L/M/N

C.A.T. Oil AG (O2C.DE, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 15.73), Equal Weight/Positive, J

CGG (GEPH.PA, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 11.87), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/N

Chevron Corporation (CVX, 04-Apr-2014, USD 118.80), Equal Weight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N/O

China Oilfield Services (COSL) (2883.HK, 07-Apr-2014, HKD 19.16), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

ConocoPhillips (COP, 04-Apr-2014, USD 70.22), Overweight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK, 04-Apr-2014, USD 29.04), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N/O

Eni (ENI.MI, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 18.30), Equal Weight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N

Enquest (ENQ.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 1.23), Underweight/Positive, E/J/K/L/N

Essar Energy (ESSR.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBp 67.3), Rating Suspended/Negative, D/E/J/K/L/M/N

Eurasia Drilling Co., Ltd. (EDCLq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 25.00), Overweight/Positive, J

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, 04-Apr-2014, USD 97.36), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/E/J/K/L/M/N/O

Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to ExxonMobilInternational Holdings Inc and ExxonMobil Energy Limited, both fully-owned subsidiaries of Exxon Mobil Corporation in relation to their proposedsale of an interest in Castle Peak Power Company Limited and in Hong Kong Pumped Storage Development Company Limited.

Galp Energia (GALP.LS, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 12.67), Overweight/Positive, D/J/L

Gazprom (GAZPq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 7.84), Overweight/Neutral, D/J/K/L/M/N


8 April 2014 49


Gazprom Neft (SIBNq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 20.18), Overweight/Neutral, A/D/J/K/L/M/N

Grupa Lotos (LTSP.WA, 04-Apr-2014, PLN 37.81), Equal Weight/Negative, J/K/M

Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 7.11), Equal Weight/Negative, D/E/J/K/L/M

Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to HellenicPetroleum SA in relation to the potential sale of their stake in DESFA SA to the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). The rating,price target and estimates for Hellenic Petroleum do not incorporate the impact of this potential transaction.

Hess Corp. (HES, 04-Apr-2014, USD 85.34), Overweight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Hunting (HTG.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBp 869.5), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/N/Q

Integra Group (INTEq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 17.20), Overweight/Positive, J

Lukoil (LKOHyq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 55.80), Equal Weight/Neutral, J/K/N

Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 2.80), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/L

Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays Bank Plc is providing equity advisory services to MaireTecnimont SPA

MOL (MOLB.BU, 04-Apr-2014, HUF 13095.00), Underweight/Positive, D/J/L

Motor Oil (MORr.AT, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 9.74), Overweight/Negative, J

Murphy Oil (MUR, 04-Apr-2014, USD 61.91), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/N

Neste Oil (NES1V.HE, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 15.60), Underweight/Negative, D/J/K/L/M/N

Novatek (NVTKq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 106.80), Overweight/Neutral, A/D/J/K/L/M

OMV (OMVV.VI, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 33.00), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

Oryx Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (OXC.TO, 04-Apr-2014, CAD 14.92), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/L/R

Petrofac (PFC.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 14.24), Underweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR, 04-Apr-2014, USD 13.31), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA, 04-Apr-2014, USD 13.72), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M

Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL, 04-Apr-2014, NOK 73.00), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

PKN Orlen (PKN.WA, 04-Apr-2014, PLN 43.40), Underweight/Negative, D/J/L

Polarcus (PLCS.OL, 04-Apr-2014, NOK 4.65), Equal Weight/Positive, J

Premier Oil (PMO.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 3.09), Overweight/Positive, A/D/F/J/K/L/M/N

Repsol (REP.MC, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 18.93), Equal Weight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 1.03), Overweight/Positive, F/J/K/N

Rosneft (ROSNq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 6.55), Underweight/Neutral, D/J/K/L/M/N

Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 22.16), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 23.60), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Saipem (SPMI.MI, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 17.74), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

Salamander Energy (SMDR.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 1.06), Equal Weight/Positive, F/J

Saras (SRS.MI, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 1.25), Underweight/Negative, D/J/K/L/M/N

Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J, 04-Apr-2014, ZAR 582.00), Overweight/Neutral, C/D/J/K/L/M/N/O

SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 13.58), Overweight/Positive, C/J

Soco International (SIA.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 3.96), Underweight/Positive, J

Statoil ASA (STL.OL, 04-Apr-2014, NOK 169.50), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N

Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL, 04-Apr-2014, NOK 110.40), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

Surgutneftegas (SNGSyq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 7.42), Underweight/Neutral, J

Tatneft (TATNxq.L, 04-Apr-2014, USD 35.30), Equal Weight/Neutral, J/K/M

Technip (TECF.PA, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 73.17), Overweight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays Bank Plc is providing equity advisory services to Technip SA.

Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 41.20), Equal Weight/Positive, J/K/M/N

Tesoro Corporation (TSO, 04-Apr-2014, USD 50.58), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M

TGS (TGS.OL, 04-Apr-2014, NOK 198.60), Underweight/Positive, J

Total (TOTF.PA, 04-Apr-2014, EUR 48.69), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/F/J/K/L/M/N


8 April 2014 50


Tullow Oil (TLW.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 8.00), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/E/J/K/L/M/N/Q

Tupras (TUPRS.IS, 04-Apr-2014, TRY 45.50), Underweight/Neutral, J/K/N

Valero Energy (VLO, 04-Apr-2014, USD 54.38), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N

Wood Group (WG.L, 04-Apr-2014, GBP 7.95), Overweight/Positive, C/D/E/F/J/K/L/M/N

Disclosure Legend:

A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of the issuer in theprevious 12 months.

B: An employee of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a director of this issuer.

C: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in equity securities issued by this issuer or one of its affiliates.

D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.

E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuerwithin the next 3 months.

F: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of equity securities of the issuer as of the end of the monthprior to the research report's issuance.

G: One of the analysts on the coverage team (or a member of his or her household) owns shares of the common stock of this issuer.

H: This issuer beneficially owns 5% or more of any class of common equity securities of Barclays Bank PLC.

I: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has a significant financial interest in the securities of this issuer.

J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of this issuer.

K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from this issuer within the past 12 months.

L: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

M: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLCand/or an affiliate.

N: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLCand/or an affiliate.

O: Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in this issuer's stock, which is listed on the New YorkStock Exchange. At any given time, its associated Designated Market Maker may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and itsassociated Designated Market Maker may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the stock.

P: A partner, director or officer of Barclays Capital Canada Inc. has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company forremuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.

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R: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12months.

S: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. is a market-maker in an equity or equity related security issued by this issuer.

Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below)relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverageuniverse").

In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral orNegative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investorsshould carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

Stock Rating

Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-monthinvestment horizon.

Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-monthinvestment horizon.

Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or tocomply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Corporate and Investment Banking Divisionof Barclays is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

Industry View


8 April 2014 51


Positive - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.

Neutral - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.

Negative - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":

Americas Integrated Oil

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO) Chevron Corporation (CVX) ConocoPhillips (COP)

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) Hess Corp. (HES) Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO)

Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO) Murphy Oil (MUR) Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA) Suncor Energy (SU.TO)

Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas

Bharat Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (BPCL.NS) Cairn India (CAIL.NS) China Steel Chemical (1723.TW)

CNOOC (0883.HK) Formosa Chemicals (1326.TW) Formosa Petrochemical (6505.TW)

Formosa Plastics (1301.TW) Gail India (GAIL.NS) Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (HPCL.NS)

Indian Oil Corp., Ltd. (IOC.NS) Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW) Oil & Natural Gas Corp., Ltd. (ONGC.NS)

Oil India (OILI.NS) PetroChina (0857.HK) PETRONAS Chemicals (PCGB.KL)

Petronet LNG (PLNG.NS) Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) Sinopec (0386.HK)

TSRC Corp. (2103.TW)

Asia ex-Japan Oil Services & Drilling

Anton Oilfield Services (3337.HK) China Oilfield Services (COSL) (2883.HK) EZRA Holdings (EZRA.SI)

Hilong Holding, Ltd. (1623.HK) Honghua Group (0196.HK) Keppel Corp. (KPLM.SI)

Sembcorp Marine (SCMN.SI) SPT Energy Group (1251.HK)

CEEMEA Oil & Gas

Bashneft (BANE.MM) Gazprom (GAZPq.L) Gazprom Neft (SIBNq.L)

Lukoil (LKOHyq.L) Novatek (NVTKq.L) Rosneft (ROSNq.L)

Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J) Surgutneftegas (SNGSyq.L) Surgutneftegas (SNGS_p.MM)

Tatneft (TATNxq.L)

European Integrated Oil

BG Group (BG.L) BP (BP.L) Eni (ENI.MI)

Galp Energia (GALP.LS) MOL (MOLB.BU) OMV (OMVV.VI)

Repsol (REP.MC) Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L) Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L)

Statoil ASA (STL.OL) Total (TOTF.PA)

European Oil & Gas: E&P

Afren Plc (AFRE.L) Africa Oil Corp. (AOIC.ST) Bowleven PLC (BLVN.L)

Cairn Energy (CNE.L) Caracal Energy Inc. (CRCL.L) Enquest (ENQ.L)

Oryx Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (OXC.TO) Premier Oil (PMO.L) Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L)

Salamander Energy (SMDR.L) Soco International (SIA.L) Tullow Oil (TLW.L)

European Oil Services & Drilling

Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL) AMEC plc (AMEC.L) CGG (GEPH.PA)

Hunting (HTG.L) Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI) Petrofac (PFC.L)

Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL) Polarcus (PLCS.OL) Saipem (SPMI.MI)

SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS) Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL) Technip (TECF.PA)

Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC) TGS (TGS.OL) Wood Group (WG.L)

European Refining & Marketing

Essar Energy (ESSR.L) Grupa Lotos (LTSP.WA) Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT)

Motor Oil (MORr.AT) Neste Oil (NES1V.HE) PKN Orlen (PKN.WA)

Saras (SRS.MI)

Russian Oil Services & Drilling

C.A.T. Oil AG (O2C.DE) Eurasia Drilling Co., Ltd. (EDCLq.L) Integra Group (INTEq.L)


8 April 2014 52


TMK (TRMKq.L)

Turkey General Industrials

Arcelik (ARCLK.IS) BIM (BIMAS.IS) Ford Otosan (FROTO.IS)

Koc Holding (KCHOL.IS) Migros (MGROS.IS) Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS.IS)

Tofas Fabrika (TOASO.IS) Tupras (TUPRS.IS) Turkish Airlines (THYAO.IS)

U.S. Independent Refiners

Alon USA Energy (ALJ) Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC)

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) Phillips 66 (PSX) Tesoro Corporation (TSO)

Valero Energy (VLO) Western Refining, Inc. (WNR)

Distribution of Ratings:

Barclays Equity Research has 2619 companies under coverage.

45% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 45% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

37% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 43% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

15% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 39% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:

Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock willtrade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's pricetarget over the same 12-month period.

Barclays offices involved in the production of equity research:

London

Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, London)

New York

Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)

Tokyo

Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Tokyo)

São Paulo

Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, São Paulo)

Hong Kong

Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)

Toronto

Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Toronto)

Johannesburg

Absa Bank Limited (Absa, Johannesburg)

Mexico City

Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico City)

Taiwan

Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited (BCSTW, Taiwan)

Seoul

Barclays Capital Securities Limited (BCSL, Seoul)

Mumbai

Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, Mumbai)

Singapore

Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)

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This publication has been prepared by the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and/or one or more of its affiliates (collectivelyand each individually, "Barclays"). It has been issued by one or more Barclays legal entities within its Corporate and Investment Banking division as providedbelow. It is provided to our clients for information purposes only, and Barclays makes no express or implied warranties, and expressly disclaims all warrantiesof merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use with respect to any data included in this publication. Barclays will not treat unauthorizedrecipients of this report as its clients. Prices shown are indicative and Barclays is not offering to buy or sell or soliciting offers to buy or sell any financialinstrument.

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