Global Newbuild Market Survey - · PDF fileGlobal Newbuild Market Survey ... shipowning and...

Shipping Consultants32 years of service to the marine industry

Global Newbuild Market Survey

Barry Luthwaite

BRL Shipping Consultants

Danish Export Ass. April 28, 2016: 1


N

nb

Danish Export Ass. April 28, 2016 : 2

The Newbuilding MarketThe Neuilding MarketThe Newbuilding Market

No Escape. Tough Times Ahead


Looking at the crisis in

shipowning and shipbuilding

today



Contracting falls to worrying levels in 2016

• Will this continue in 2016?

• When and how will recovery come?

• Investors are frightened off

• No longer is investment in shipping seen as a

safe haven

• Shipyard debts getting out of control

• Favourable market outlets



Contracting falls to worrying levels in 2016

• More and more state intervention, mergers and

bankruptcies

• Tankers and cruise liners are the shining

lights

• What does the current situation tell us for the

future?



What will happen in 2016?

1.851

1.657

1.443

2.6192.516

1.768

504

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Contracting of Ships by YearNo. of Ships (All commercial trading vessels) Mid April 2016



Growth in 2016


176

93

6054

43

23 22 1912

20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Tanker BulkCarrier

Others Ferry Offshore Container Dry Cargo Cruise Gas CarCarrier

Contracting of Ships during 2016 as at Mid April 2016By Vessel Type, No. of Ships - Total 504


Current orderbook status

1.458

1.262

1.059

531471

360

202171

97 87

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

BulkCarrier

Tanker Offshore Container Others Gas Dry Cargo Ferry Car Carrier Cruise

Newbuild Orderbook as at Mid April 2016By Vessel Type, No. of Ships (All commercial trading vessels) - Total 5,698



Latest changing trends: Owner perspective

• New environmental legislation

• Changing attitude of banks for favoured

owners

• Eco versus non eco advantages cancelled out

• Owners seeking more third party management

• Private equity showing signs of retreat which

could spell trouble for owners



Latest changing trends: Builder perspective

• Increasing debt crisis in China and South Korea

• Japan continues to gain ground

• Europe staging a revival in small vessel

construction

• Impact on owner interest in ordering new

tonnage



Expected ship delivery

Danish Export Ass. November 18, 2015: 11

vessel type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Bulk Carrier 951 320 134 31 9 1

Car Carrier 25 38 25 8

Container 190 188 122 24 7

Cruise 15 28 15 13 10 1 4 1 1

Dredger 20 10 1

Dry Cargo 118 56 24 4

Ferry 77 72 22 2 3

Fishing 26 22 11 2

Gas 130 137 51 27 2 2 4 1

Heavy Lift 9 3 9

Miscellaneous 53 30 12 2

Offshore 785 231 26 10 5

Reefer 5 4 1

Tanker 508 458 205 64 23 1

Tug 100 48 10

Yacht 64 26 4 2 1

Grand Total 3,076 1,671 672 189 60 5 8 2 1

Shipping Consultants32 years of service to the marine industry Danish Export Ass. November 18, 2015: 12

2.350901

851153146

129116116

100908173696854454339383837313030282220

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500

ChinaJapan

Korea (South)USA

BrazilOthers

NetherlandsRussian…

SingaporeTurkey

PhilippinesItaly

VietnamNorway

SpainCroatia

United Arab…MalaysiaGermany

IndiaRomania

TaiwanBangladesh

IndonesiaSouth Africa

United KingdomPoland

Newbuild Orderbook, No. of ShipsBy Shipbuilder Country

Orderbook as at Mid April 2016

Total 5,698


Newbuild Orderbook, By Shipowner Country as at Mid April 2016

Danish Export Ass. November 18, 2015: 13

Others27%

China12%

Greece9%

Japan7%

Singapore7%

USA6%

Norway5%

Germany5%

United Kingdom3%

Korea (South)3%

Denmark3%

Hong Kong3%

Russian Federation2%

Brazil2%

Taiwan2%

Netherlands2%

United Arab Emirates2%

Others

China

Greece

Japan

Singapore

USA

Norway

Germany

United Kingdom

Korea (South)

Denmark

Hong Kong

Russian Federation

Brazil

Taiwan

Netherlands

United Arab Emirates

Percentage of


Containership crisis

• Has there been improvement?

• Feedership success

• Wide beam tonnage increase

• Reefer trades



Containerships Contracted 2010-2016


109

218

84

260

184

271

23

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Contracting of Containerships by YearNo. of Ships as at Mid April 2016


Containerships on order by expected delivery year and teu


Country of

shipbuilder

2016 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

no teu no teu no teu no teu no teu no teu

Bangladesh 3 500 3 500

Brazil 3 8,100 1 2,700 2 5,400

China 292 1,581,037 114 462,097 104 440,368 64 600,448 9 66,324 1 11,800

Croatia 4 8,000 2 4,000 2 4,000

Japan 74 994,506 11 129,190 9 106,103 33 422,113 15 233,600 6 103,500

Korea (South) 99 1,303,726 35 357,382 49 697,794 15 248,550

Philippines 25 287,970 11 105,060 13 162,310 1 20,600

Poland 1 606 1 606

Romania 1 9,162 1 9,162

Taiwan 20 106,000 8 74,400 7 17,600 5 14,000

USA 5 15,100 1 3,100 2 4,800 2 7,200

Vietnam 4 2,814 2 1,414 2 1,400

Grand Total 531 4,317,521 190 1,149,611 188 1,435,775 122 1,316,911 24 299,924 7 115,300


Tanker recovery sustained

• How long can it last?

• Which types find more favour

• Will the oil price recover in 2016

• Average freight rates


Shipping Consultants32 years of service to the marine industry Danish Export Ass. April 28, 2016 : 18

GRE SNG JAP CHI MON NOR SK USA RUS UK DK TUR HK BRA SWE INDO ITA

2016 22 3 38 6 8 12 1 4 2 9

2015 125 32 51 54 30 19 25 10 16 9 13 9 9 9 1 6

2014 60 60 50 39 4 27 22 25 12 15 25 11 8 5 4 6 2

2013 51 67 13 15 65 19 32 31 7 22 18 6 12 5 2 7 11

2012 12 19 17 29 17 19 11 13 2 16 2 4 2 20 13 1 7

2011 23 30 18 10 9 7 5 2 30 4 6 2 2 1

2010 42 24 19 44 15 4 16 13 10 9 5 6 6 8 4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Tankers Contracted 2010 - 2016By No. of Ships, Shipowner Country


Fleet Changes 2015/2016

Ratio of scrapping in 2015/2016 compared with deliveries


Newbuild Deliveries 2015 2016ship type no noBulk Carrier 665 157

Offshore 427 32

Tanker 304 79

Container 213 32

Gas 112 31

Dry Cargo 65 11

Tug 50 3

RoPax 24 3

Car Carrier 20 7

Cruise 18 2

Miscellaneous 14 2

Fast Ferry 6

RoRo Freight 6

Dredger 5 1

Heavy Lift 4

Ferry 3

Fishing 3

Luxury Yacht 1 1

Reefer 1

Grand Total 1,941 361

Sold for Demolition 2015 2016ship type no noBulk Carrier 205 90

Car Carrier 4 1

Container 36 21

Dredger 1

Dry Cargo 24 4

Ferry RoPax 6

Gas 32 3

Offshore 4 3

Miscellaneous 2

Reefer 3 2

RORO Freight 3

Tanker 38 8

Grand Total 356 134


Conclusion:

• Have we reached a bust situation?

• Huge scrapping programme needed

• Mergers and bankruptcies are steadily growing

• Too much political interference

• How is the shipbuilder debt problem

conquered



BRL Shipping ConsultantsLeading Supplier of Data to the Maritime Industry

Danish Export Ass. April 28, 2016 21

• BRL offers a wide range of marine data services and consultancy • BRL supplies extensive data for:

• World Orderbook• Fleet, including Offshore vessels

• BRL products include:• Weekly Market Newsletter• Online Data Subscription• Online real-time Data Analysis• Data Extracts• Consultancy, Research and Forecasting

• BRL has been providing this service to marine industries for 32 years


Tak for opmærksomheden

Thank you for your attention


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