Global Megacycles and Trends: Setting the Agenda for 21 st Century Science
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Transcript of Global Megacycles and Trends: Setting the Agenda for 21 st Century Science
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Global Megacycles and Trends: Setting the Agenda for 21st Century Science
Emerging Issues:
Berrien Moore III
University of New Hampshire
New Challenges for Understanding our Changing Planet
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Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf
Mauna Loa Monthly Carbon Dioxide Record:Keeling Record 1958 - 2000
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320
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340
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360
370
1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
Year
Ca
rbo
n D
iox
ide
(p
pm
v)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Ice core
Historical Atmospheric Carbon Concentration for the Last 1000 Years
Extracted from the Law Dome Ice Core
Source: Etheridge, et.al., Petit, et.al.
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350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
Car
bo
n C
on
cnet
rati
on
(p
pm
v)
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Year
Polynomial fit
Atmospheric Measurements
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
Tem
per
atu
re V
aria
tio
n (
°C)
Source: Petit, et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
Variation with Time of the Vostok Isotope Temperature Record
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
CO
2 concentration (ppmv)
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
Source: Barnola, et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
Te
mp
era
ture
Va
ria
tio
n (
°C)
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175
200
225
250
275
300
325
Source: Barnola, et.al.; Petit et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
Vostok Ice Core CO2 Concentration andTemperature Variation Record
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES / IGBP); IPCC
CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores andAtmospheric CO2 Projection for Next 100 Years
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Vostok RecordLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa RecordIPCC IS92a Scenario
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Principal Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Source: Marland, et.al.
Year
Total
Gas
Liquids
Solids
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
ns
( G
t. C
/yr.
)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Source: Marland, et.al.
Per Capita Emission EstimatesM
etri
c T
on
s o
f C
arb
on
Em
itte
d p
er P
erso
n p
er Y
ear United States
Germany (unified)
Global Average
Peoples Rep. China
India
Year
1950 20001960 1970 1980 1990
3
2
1
0
4
5
6
7
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Source: WHIGCC, 2000
Emissions are likely to increase and become more globally distributed.
Pressure Changing Composition
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Source: IPCC, 2001
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Global C Budget (PgC/y)
1980s 1990s
Atm. Increase 3.3+/-0.1 3.2+/-0.1
Emissions 5.4+/-0.3 6.3+/-0.4
Ocean-Atm. Flux -1.9+/-0.6 -1.7+/-0.5
Land-Atm. Flux* -0.2+/-0.7 -1.4+/-0.7
*partitioned as follows
Land Use 1.7(0.6-2.5) NA
Residual Terrestrial Sink
-1.9(-3.8-0.3) NA
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Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Global(NOAA)
CapeGrim(CSIRO)FossilFuel
Pinatubo
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CO2GROWTHRATE
ElNinoLaNina
MaunaLoa(Scripps/NOAA)
Gt.
C p
er y
ear
SO
I
Source: R. Francey (CSIRO)
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19851980 1990 1995 2000
8
6
4
2
30
0
-30
CO2 Annual Growth Rate
Year
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES / IGBP); IPCC
CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores andAtmospheric CO2 Projection for Next 100 Years
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Vostok RecordLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa RecordIPCC IS92a Scenario
Setting the Agenda for 21st Century Science: Global Megacycles and TrendsPreparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Greenhouse Gas Effect
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IPCC Cover
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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0.125
0.100
0.075
0.050
0.018
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.004
Surface Flux Uncertainties GtC/Mo Using
Simulated Satellite Data
Surface Flux Uncertainties GtC/Mo Using
Current Observational Network
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Geometry of the WeatherSat Measurement Scheme
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
RADIOSONDE (blue) and SPACE LIDAR (green)
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
WeatherSat Global Wind Coverage
10 M/S