Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010.
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Transcript of Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010.
Cosmic Rays and
Climate Change:a brief summary
Arnold Wolfendale,Durham University
Tolya ErlykinBen LakenTerry Sloan
1. Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010.
2. Effect of CR and other sources of ionization on clouds.
3. ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover.4. Cosmic Rays and Lightning5. Lightning and the origin of Life.
Global T rise from 1950 to 2010 due, potentially, to CR
∆CR11 from 1950 – 2010> - 3%
L = ∆T/∆CRCR11 : CR intensity smoothed over 11-year cycle
Two anomalies!
Define L = ∆T/∆CR
Method Predicted ∆T (1950 / 2010)
1. L from 1890 / 1930, apply to 1950/2010 0.03oC
2. L from IPCC fit cf predicted for 1890/2010 0.003oC
3. L from 11 year solar cycle using p/p = 0.07oC 0.015oC
Conclusion
Upper limit for ∆T (1950/2010) due to CR is 0.03 oC, compared with actual: 0.7 oC, i.e. 4%
EVEN THIS COULD BE OF SOLAR ORIGIN
Effect of CR changes on Cloud Cover – and other ionization changes
INDIA(RADON)
Chernobyl
NuclearBomb tests
Bravo bomb15mt
Forbush Decreases
Positive CRCloud Cover
Electrical
‘CLOUD’ and Cloud CoverClouds of different types should have different
sensitivities to ionization.Stratiform should be most sensitive.They are very extended.
Only edge effects are effective in changing cloud cover.Very approximately∆CC/CC = (1/7) ∆CCN/CCN
Many km
(CCN = ‘charged condensation nuclei’)
‘Cloud’ and Cloud Cover
Kulmala et al. (2010) show that
∆CCN/CCN < 1%, for max CR change.
ConclusionCR have a negligible effect on Cloud Cover.
Lightning
Adam and God
SNR Model: A.D. Erlykin and AWW (2001)
Miller (1953) – and Miller & Urey
water, methane,ammonia, etc.(the ‘pre-biotic soup’)
Amino-acidsRNAMonomers
On average, every million years,
ICR(>1016eV) up by ~ 105 for ~ 30,000 years.
Probably enough to cause a sufficiently large frequency
of lightning discharges to cause production of RNA,
monomers, etc. in the window : 4.5 – 3.5 By BP.
after Parman
More recently – and more probably – the generation of
NOX by lightning will have had relevance to evolution.
NOX is welcome to plants and bad for humans.
Conclusions
1. CR have a very small effect on clouds.2. CR may be connected with the origin of life,
and its subsequent evolution.