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Global market review of automotive turbochargers – forecasts to 2015 2010 edition

In this report sample you’ll find an overview of the report, a full table of

contents and list of data tables and figures, plus one sample page of each

chapter.

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review-of-automotive-turbochargers-forecasts-to-

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Author: Ian Henry

Date published: October 2010

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Overview

The biggest market for turbocharger use in passenger vehicles (which includes light trucks in the USA) is in Europe, and specifically the diesel segment. Here all diesel engines are turbocharged and indeed they cannot meet current EU emissions rules without a turbocharger. Petrol turbocharger use is less well entrenched in Europe (although Europe is already the largest turbocharger market) and while it should double between 2010 and 2015, the largest growth in volume terms in turbocharger use in the next decade will be in North America, followed by various markets in Asia.

The turbocharger market is noteworthy because new suppliers are entering, something which is rarely seen in automotive components. Plus on the basis that emissions regulations are becoming tougher and tougher the world over, it is inevitable that demand for turbochargers will rise; they may not become xxx% fitment items in all markets, but their penetration rate will continue to trend strongly upwards.

In this latest edition of just-auto's popular global review of turbochargers and superchargers, the following essential researhc and data is provided:

Growth drivers - offering an in-depth analysis of key drivers including:

• Emissions reduction

• Engine downsizing (including historic and forecast volumes of engine

production by size)

• Impact of electric vehicles on turbocharger demand

Technical developments and innovation - a look at some of the most significant technological issues and developments surrounding turbochargers, with specific reference to a number of new engines introduced in recent years. Subjects covered include:

• Turbine geometry

• Multi-stage and linked dual turbochargers

• Twin scroll turbochargers

• Electronic controls

• Manifold-integrated turbochargers

• Bearings

• Development in materials – titanium and plastics

• Thermal management issues

The research also includes the following turbocharged engine case studies:

• BMW's Efficient Dynamics aided by turbocharging

• Two-stage turbocharging – the BMW six-cylinder diesel

• The application of twin turbo technology in small engines

• Turbocharging contributing to emissions reduction on the new E-class



• Volkswagen Audi's TFSI and TDI engines, the EA888 and TSI 1.4 litre

engines

• Fiat’s Multi-Air technology

• Ford’s EcoBoost

• Turbochargers on CNG and Eco-fuel engines

• Combined supercharger and turbocharger applications

Market take-up – turbocharger use by petrol, diesel and hybrid applications. This section analyses historic and forecasts regional turbocharger demand out to 2015, providing production volumes of diesel and petrol engines with turbochargers. Full analysis of the data compliments the tables. Areas covered include Europe, North America, Japan, China, Korea, India, Thailand, South America, Russia, Africa and Australia.

Turbocharger supplier market shares are provided by region for 2009. Along with full regulatory and industry background information, the report also profiles the main suppliers, reviewing their key technologies.

Use this essential, cost-effective global round-up of this dynamic sector to:

• Gain an overall insight and understanding of all key issues affecting

the sector

• Fully understand all key market drivers

• Review all major technological developments

• Assess the historic and future market sizes and trends

• Understand the key applications and major suppliers



Contents Chapter 1 Executive summary

Turbochargers – what they do and how they do it

Global and regional patterns of turbocharger use

New suppliers entering the market

Significant growth potential also recognised by established suppliers

Trends in turbocharger use

Threats to turbocharger use

Technical trends and outlook

Chapter 2 Regulatory and industry background Regulatory background to emissions rules

Europe and North America

Asia – Japan and China

Summary

Chapter 3 Technology review

Turbochargers – how they work and their evolution

Superchargers – how they work and in comparison to turbochargers

Turbochargers or superchargers?

Chapter 4 Growth drivers

Emissions reduction

Engine downsizing

Impact of EVs on turbocharger demand

Chapter 5 Technical developments and innovation Turbine geometry

Multi-stage and linked dual turbochargers

Twin scroll turbochargers

Electronic controls

Manifold-integrated turbochargers

Bearings

Development in materials – titanium and plastics

Titanium use spreading



Using plastic components in turbochargers

Thermal management issues

Turbocharged engine case studies

BMW – Efficient Dynamics aided by turbocharging

Two-stage turbocharging – the BMW six-cylinder diesel

The application of twin turbo technology in small engines

Mercedes-Benz

Turbocharging contributes to emissions reduction on the new E-class

Volkswagen-Audi

The TFSI and TDI engine „brands. – at the heart of the group.s environmental

strategy

The Volkswagen EA888 engine – highlighting several improvements in

turbocharger design

The TSI 1.4 litre engine – downsized, turbochargers and more powerful

Turbocharged diesel sports car application – the 2.0 litre TDI in the Audi TT

Fiat.s Multi-Air technology

Ford.s EcoBoost

Turbochargers on CNG and Eco-fuel engines

Combined supercharger and turbocharger applications

Chapter 6 Market take-up – turbocharger use by petrol, diesel and hybrid applications

Regional analysis

Europe

North America

Japan

Other markets

Chapter 7 Turbocharger supplier market shares

Global market share overview

Europe

North America

Other markets

Chapter 8 Supplier summary

BorgWarner

Overview

Key technologies

Honeywell



Overview

Key technologies

Bosch-Mahle

Continental-Schaeffler

List of figures Figure 1: Ford.s 6.7 litre engine with Honeywell DualBoost turbocharger

Figure 2: BorgWarner titanium compressor wheel

Figure 3: BMW.s bi-turbo module

Figure 4: BMW TVDI engine as fitted in the latest Mini

Figure 5: Ford.s EcoBoost engine turbocharger and manifold

Figure 6: Ford.s EcoBoost truck engine

Figure 7: Global market shares for turbochargers 2009 (%)

Figure 8: European market shares for turbochargers 2009

Figure 9: North American market shares for turbochargers 2009

Figure 10: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger

Figure 11: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger for Hyundai-Kia

Figure 12: Honeywell.s GT12 turbocharger

Figure 13: Bosch-Mahle.s first turbocharger

Figure 14: Continental.s first turbocharger

List of tables

Table 1: Global turbocharger volumes by major market, 2010 and 2015 (m

units)

Table 2: Global engine production split by no. of cylinders, 2007-2015 (m units)

Table 3: Engine downsizing on the VW TSI engine series

Table 4: Global light vehicle engine production, 2007-2015 (m units and %

turbocharged)

Table 5: Effective number of turbochargers, allowing for twin turbos, 2007-

2015 (m units)

Table 6: European diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015

(m units, % global demand)

Table 7: North American diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand,

2007-2015 (m units, % global demand)

Table 8: Japanese diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015


Table 9: Chinese diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015




Table 10: Korean diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015


Table 11: Indian diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015


Table 12: Thai diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015 (m

units, % global demand)

Table 13: South American diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand,

2007-2015 (m units, % global demand)

Table 14: Rest of the world markets, i.e. Russia, Africa and Australia diesel-

and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015 (m units, % global

demand)



Chapter 1 Executive summary Turbochargers – what they do and how they do it In simple terms, a

turbocharger is a device fitted to either a petrol or diesel engine which can

increase the power output of the engine by pressure charging the inlet

manifold, increasing the volumetric efficiency of the engine. The air induction

compressor part of this device is powered by a radial turbine which is in turn

driven by engine exhaust – hence the origin of the term „turbo..

This is not a new technology per se and in fact dates back to the 1910s when

the technology was first applied to fighter aircraft. The first significant

development of turbochargers for automotive use was in the 1960s at Garrett

and KKK. In 1973, the first turbocharged Porsche 911 appeared on the road

and this was soon followed by a Saab turbo. Through the 1970s and 1980s,

the technology remained something of a niche product, fitted to a small

number of high performance vehicles at an OE level, as well as in the

aftermarket. For a while in the 1980s the technology was used in Formula 1

racing but was outlawed and later fell out of favour.

However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, turbocharged diesel engines

began to appear; by this time, turbochargers had been recognised as a means

to improve both the emissions rating and all-round performance of diesel

engines. As emissions rules have become tougher and tougher in recent

years, the advantages of turbocharging in helping to reduce vehicle emissions

have been accepted in the petrol engine segment of the market as well. As a

result of this, and in conjunction with other engine improvements, turbocharger

use has begun to accelerate rapidly, especially in Europe and North America. Global and regional patterns of turbocharger use

The biggest market for turbocharger use in passenger vehicles (which includes

light trucks in the US) is in Europe, and specifically the diesel segment. Here

all diesel engines are turbocharged and indeed they cannot meet current EU

emissions rules without a turbocharger. Petrol turbocharger use is less well

entrenched in Europe (although Europe is already the largest turbocharger

market) and while it should double between 2010 and 2015, the largest growth

in volume terms in turbocharger use in the next decade will be in North



Chapter 2 Regulatory and industry

background

Regulatory background to emissions rules The automotive industry has faced a progressively tougher regulatory

environment in terms of emissions in recent years; this regulatory “toughness”

is compounded by the lack of consistency between the major regions in terms

of the specifics of the prevailing rules. Full details regarding emissions allowed

for both petrol and diesel engines in each regional or country market is

available at www.dieselnet.com/standards and readers are referred there for

the exact rules and specifications.

Europe and North America In Europe the key driver has been the recent application of Euro V rules and

the impending Euro VI rules which come into force in September 2014 for cars

and September 2015 for light commercial vehicles. In North America, the US

government.s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules have nationwide

applicability, but in many ways the more important rules are those set down in

California in its Low Emission Vehicle rules. LEV II came into force between

2004 and 2010, while the more onerous LEV III will come into force starting in

Model Year 2014, through to 2022. The full details of these rules are set out on

the “dieselnet” web site as noted above, but the key thing about the next round

of California LEV rules are the increased attention paid to NOx emissions and

the long term durability of emissions control systems. Moreover, what is

required in California today will be required soon in the rest of the USA, so

there is no doubt that emissions rules will become increasingly tough

throughout the world.

Asia – Japan and China In Japan, the regulatory environment focuses on reducing fuel consultation first

– and thereby cutting emissions; the rules call for a cut in fuel consumption of

xxxx% between 2004 and 2015 for cars and a cut of xxxx% on light truck fuel

consumption over the same period. Interestingly, in China, the regulatory

environment is increasingly following that of the EU, possibly reflecting the

increasing investments by major European vehicle companies, especially PSA

and the VW group in the country. At present, EU4 rules apply nationwide



Chapter 3 Technology review

As noted at the outset, a turbocharger is a means to boost engine power by

using the waste energy which remains in exhaust gases. This is one way of

using a conventional compressor to boost engine power. An alternative is to

use a mechanically driven or pressure-wave supercharger. Superchargers are

far less commonly used than turbochargers and are now something of a niche

product. Indeed other than at Volkswagen-Audi, and possibly at GM.s Cadillac

and Chevrolet brands, superchargers have been largely supplanted by

turbochargers.

Turbochargers – how they work and their evolution In simple terms, the principle behind turbocharging is to increase the amount

of air forced into the engine, which in turn increases engine power. The basic

idea behind turbochargers in terms of boosting engine performance is

wellestablished, but it is only in the last decade or so that the all-round benefits

of turbochargers in terms of reducing emissions have been widely recognised

and their application on a widespread basis has accelerated. A turbocharger

takes what is otherwise waste energy in the exhaust gas and forces it back

through a turbine to create boost pressure. This is in turn then directed back

into the engine. In addition, the amount of air forced into the engine can be

further increased by cooling the air – through intercooling in the turbocharger.s

compressor or aftercooling once the air has left the compressor, but before it

re-enters the engine.

The use of a turbocharger means either the power of a given engine size can

be increased, or a specific power output level can be maintained with a smaller

engine displacement. This is what has become referred to in the industry as

downsizing – smaller engines also produce benefits in terms of reduced

engine size and weight, which help further to cut emissions.

Although the technological principles behind turbochargers are relatively

straightforward and well understood, their development and enhancement has

not been entirely without problems. Fitting a turbocharger has implications in

terms of the engine.s operating temperature; early turbochargers also required

higher octane fuel to prevent engine knocking which can happen when



Chapter 4 Growth Drivers

Emissions reduction The key driver behind growing turbocharger use is increasingly tough

emissions rules; turbochargers are just one of the means which the industry

can use to reduce emissions. According to BorgWarner, the impact of fitting a

turbocharger is that a vehicle.s emissions can be reduced by between xxxxx%;

this is clearly significant, but it should not be forgotten that other engine

technologies help in this regard. For example and again according to

BorgWarner, improvements in fuel economy of xxxx% can be achieved

through the use of Dual Clutch Transmissions, while Cam Phasers can cut

emissions by a further x%. Other technologies employed by the vehicle

companies to reduce emissions include electric power steering, stop-start

Systems, hybrids of various forms and variable valve time and variable valve

lift systems.

The second principal driver behind the increased use of turbochargers is

engine downsizing, although this is really a consequence of the emissions

rules referred to above. Issues such as taxation, sales incentives and related

financial issues have only a marginal impact on turbocharger take-up.

Engine downsizing Although engine downsizing is a consequential driver of rising turbocharger

use, the many examples of this taking place now means specific discussion of

the various approaches of the vehicles companies is required. Downsizing of

engines is something which has always been a potential technique for vehicle

companies to reduce fuel consumption. Engine downsizing has historically

been equated with reduced engine power, so going down this route has run

counter to historic preferences from consumers for more powerful engines and

enhanced vehicle performance. However, rising environmental concerns, the

constant rise in the price of fuel, the perception or fear that fuel shortages will

not be too far away and an increasingly tough regulatory environment have led

to a reversal in opinion both in the industry and amongst consumers regarding

the benefits of engine downsizing. The fact that turbochargers have come to

be recognised as a solution to reducing engine size and cutting emissions, but

while still allowing engine power to be retained, is a key factor behind



Chapter 5 Technical developments and innovation This chapter looks at some of the most significant technological issues and

developments surrounding turbochargers, with specific reference in the second

half of the chapter to a number of new engines introduced in recent years.

Turbine geometry One of the most significant technical developments in turbocharger design is

the adoption of variable turbine geometry (VTG), sometimes referred to as

variable geometry turbines (VGT) and at Honeywell as VNT, or variable nozzle

turbines; these all involve varying the size of the inlet port of the turbine,

controlling the amount of exhaust gas which flows into the turbine. Honeywell.s

VNT technology works by adjusting the “gas throat” section at the inlet of the

turbine with control either managed by a pressure actuator or via the engine

management system controlling a vacuum actuator.

Recent developments involve movable vanes which control the amount of

engine boost by the degree to which they – the vanes – are kept open or

closed. Because exhaust gas flow is low at slow engine speeds, the vanes are

kept partially closed on start-up; this increases the pressure of the exhaust as

it pushes against the blades. As the pressure builds so the speed at which the

turbine spins increases, generating more boost. Next, as engine speed

increases, so does the flow of the exhaust. This in turn allows the vanes to

open progressively, thereby allowing boost levels to be managed accurately.

Through the use of sensors, the turbine inlet pressure can be managed and

indeed limited to manage boost at full load.

VTG technology has been available for over two decades, but its cost and

technological complexity have combined to delay its widespread application,

at least until recent years. VTG has an especially positive impact on the

performance of diesel engines and is a critical tool in improving diesel engine

fuel efficiency. To date, VTG technology has not been applied on petrol

engines, but BorgWarner told us during the research for this report that



Chapter 6 Market take-up – turbocharger use by petrol, diesel and hybrid applications

The starting point for the analysis is a global engine production forecast. The

underlying premise is that, following the fall in the market in 2008-09 with the

worldwide recession, engine production will follow vehicle production on a

largely upward curve moving forward in the next few years. Although a double-

dip recession cannot be discounted entirely, the consensus view of industry

analysts is that the next 5-6 years will see rising production volumes.

Based on data from BorgWarner, global light vehicle engine production was

approximately 67.8m units in 2007, falling to just over 56m units in 2009;

consensus forecasts suggest that, especially on the back of rising production

in China, Russia and India (and alongside the expected recovery in Europe

and North America), light vehicle engine production will top 80m units by 2015.

This is summarised in the table below, which also shows the overall

percentage of turbocharged engines.

Table 4: Global light vehicle engine production, 2007-2015 (m units and % turbocharged)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Global LV engine production (m) % turbocharged No. of turbocharged engines (m)

Source: just-auto

The number of turbocharged engines does not quite equate to the number of

turbochargers fitted because of the presence of twin-turbo engines. Based on

our interviews, we estimate the proportion of twin-turbo engines – and the

consequential effective number of turbochargers, to be as shown in the

following table.



Chapter 7 Turbocharger supplier market shares

Global market share overview The market for turbochargers is dominated by two companies namely

Honeywell and BorgWarner. Together they account for over xxx% of global

demand and in Europe and North America their combined shares are even

higher.

Outside Europe, Cummins has a strong presence in the heavier end of the

light vehicle market, especially in North America and in Japan MHI and IHI

have the majority of the market. The potential demand for turbochargers, as

shown in the growth projections in the previous chapter, is such that two new

entrants have recently emerged, namely Bosch-Mahle in a joint venture and

Continental-Schaeffler.

The emergence of entirely new suppliers in an existing automotive technology

segment is relatively rare; however, turbochargers represent an unusual

situation in that they constitute a growing market for an existing technology,

albeit one which has not reached the limit of its technical development

potential. Most rapidly growing automotive technologies of recent years (eg

airbags, keyless security systems and others) have been entirely new and

have grown from zero fitment rates; in such cases, the emergence of entirely

new suppliers to the industry was to have been expected. Here, however, we

have an established (if under-appreciated and under-utilised) technology which

– alongside significant functional and performance improvements – has

suddenly emerged as a key feature for the future.

It is in this light that the emergence of Bosch-Mahle and Continental-Schaeffler

as new suppliers can be seen as logical; indeed it may be surprising that other

suppliers have not sought to exploit this market potential more aggressively. It

is possible that Cummins could look to move down into smaller vehicle

applications over time, or for the Japanese companies to move more

aggressively outside Japan. That said, the dominance of Honeywell and

BorgWarner at the European and North American vehicle companies is



Chapter 8 Supplier summary

This section provides overview profiles of the two main players, i.e.

BorgWarner and Honeywell, and initial, available information on the two new

market entrants, Bosch-Mahle and Continental-Schaeffler.

BorgWarner

Overview BorgWarner is a major powertrain supplier, providing a range of technologies

across the engine and drivetrain markets. Engine components account for just

under three quarters of its sales, with drivetrain parts representing the other

quarter of sales.

In a statement to investors recently, the company said that it had booked

around US$xxxbn worth of new business between 2010-2012, of which

turbochargers and related emissions products would account for just over xx%

of the new business.

The key customers for turbochargers in North America is Ford where in

Europe, the company had won significant new business not just with Ford, but

also BMW, Daimler, Fiat, Renault-Nissan and VW-Audi. In addition it has worn

significant new turbocharger business in Asia with GM and VW (in China), as

well as with domestic Chinese vehicle companies and Hyundai-Kia in Korea.

Key technologies In addition to turbochargers – where the company claims leading edge

positions in wastegates, variable turbine geometry and two stage regulated

turbocharger technology – it is active in:

o thermal systems;

o emission controls;

o chain systems, including variable cam timing;

o Beru technologies – i.e. diesel cold start technology, gas ignition

technology and electronics and sensors for these applications;

o transmissions, including dual clutch systems;


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