Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast ....

33
Mapping Demand 2016-2035 Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head of Market and Product Strategy

Transcript of Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast ....

Page 1: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

Mapping Demand 2016-2035

Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head of Market and Product Strategy

Page 2: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

GMF 2016 key numbers and 20-year change

Global Market Forecast 2016: Highlights

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus GMF 2016

World Fleet Forecast 2015 2035

RPK (trillions) 6.6 16.0

Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,020 37,710

New passenger aircraft deliveries 32,425

Dedicated Freighters 1,560 2,110

New freighter aircraft deliveries 645

New aircraft deliveries - +500 aircraft GMF 2016 vs. GMF 2015

Total New Aircraft Deliveries 33,070

vs. GMF15

+5.3%

+5.5%

+650

% change 2015-2035

142%

109%

35%

-150

-21.5%

+500

Page 3: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

20-year demand for more than 33,000 new passenger and freight aircraft

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus GMF 2016

Market Value of - $5.2 trillion

33,070 new aircraft

23,530 single-aisle aircraft 100-210 seater passenger aircraft

8,060 twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne freighter aircraft

1,480 very large aircraft >400 seater passenger aircraft >80 tonne freighter aircraft

Page 4: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Single Aisle: 71% of units; Wide-bodies: 54% of value

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus GMF 2016

New Deliveries - 33,070 GMF 2016-2035

71% 24% 5% % units

46% 43% 11% % value

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

23,530

8,060

1,480 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Single Aisle Twin Aisle Very Large Aircraft100 to 210-seater 250-400 seater passenger aircraft

10-80 tonne freighter aircraft >400 seater passenger aircraft >80 tonne freighter aircraft

Page 5: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

World real GDP World passenger traffic (ASKs)

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

% (year-over-year)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World real GDP and passenger traffic

Source: IHS Economics, OAG, Airbus

+6.3%

August 2016 Passenger Traffic

2015 2016

Page 6: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Still a two-speed economic world

History Forecast

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus

* 54 emerging economies ** 32 advanced economies

Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Advanced economies**

Emerging economies*

Page 7: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

China India Middle East Asia Africa CIS Latin America Eastern Europe

6.2 billion

people 2015

Western Europe North America Japan

Yearly RPK growth 2016 - 2035

+5.6 %

+3.7 % 1 billion

people 2015

Advanced

Emerging/Developing

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2016

Page 8: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

776 826 848 864 861 66 130 206 310 441 455

911 1,738

2,602

3,528

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1995e** 2005 2015 2025 2035

2,792

1,867

3,776

4,830

1,297

History Forecast

8,8

55%

Middle Class* to move from 2.8 Billion to 4.8 Billion in 20 years

Emerging countries

World Population (Bn)

% of world population

8,1

46%

7,2

38%

6,5

29% * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices ** Estimate for 1995 split by region

Developing countries Mature countries

5,7

23%

Middle Class* (millions of people)

Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus

Page 9: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Economy is key factor in traffic growth but other drivers gaining importance…

Source: ICAO, IHS Economics, Airbus

2015 Air traffic 6.8% 2015 GDP 2.6%

Traffic and GDP Growth (%)

Page 10: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

42% of world’s private consumption to come from emerging markets

Source: IHS Economics (May 2016), Airbus GMF

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Emerging economies

Advanced economies

World private consumption (in trillion $US, 2010)

Forecast History

20%

42%

58% 80%

31%

69%

Page 11: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Emerging economies’ discretionary spending will double in just 10 years

Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2016

*Emerging + Developing economies

**Including restaurants and accommodation

Emerging economies* spending on recreational good and services** (2010 $US, PPP)

2015: $8.0 trillion

38% $3.1 trillion

2025: $13.2 trillion

46% $6.1 trillion

Emerging economies Rest of the world

Page 12: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0.00

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Europeans and North Americans are the most willing to fly…

2015 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Propensity to travel - 25% of the population of the emerging countries took a trip a year in 2015

Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2016

India 0.08 trips per capita

PRC 0.3 trips per capita

North America 1.8 trips per capita Europe

1.2 trips per capita

2015 trips per capita

Page 13: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0.00

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

…but by 2035, PRC will reach current European levels

2015 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Propensity to travel - 75% of the population of the emerging countries will take a trip a year in 2035

India 0.3 trips per capita

PRC 1.3 trips per capita

North America 2.4 trips per capita

Europe 2.2 trips per capita

2035 trips per capita

Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2016

Page 14: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2016

RPK = Revenue Passager Kilometre

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis Asian Crisis

WTC Attack Oil Crisis SARS Financial

Crisis

x2

World annual traffic (trillion RPK)

~0.4 trillion RPK

~0.4 trillion RPK

Page 15: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Airbus GMF 2016: 4.5% growth p.a ICAO total traffic

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2016

x2 x2

World annual traffic (trillion RPK)

x2

Page 16: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Asia-Pacific lead in world traffic will increase further by 2035

Source: Airbus GMF2016

RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)

0 2,000 4,000 6,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

30%

25%

24%

9%

5%

4%

3%

5.7%

3.7%

2.9%

5.7%

4.8%

4.1%

4.8%

% of 2015 world RPK

20-year growth

36%

22%

19%

11%

5%

4%

3%

% of 2035 world RPK

2015 traffic 2016-2035 traffic

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.5%

Page 17: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Domestic Chinese traffic flow to be number one

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Domestic PRC

Domestic USA

Western Europe - USA

Intra Western Europe

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic Asia emerging

Middle East - USA

Indian sub-continent - Middle East

Domestic India

PRC - USA

Asia emerging - Middle East

Asia emerging - PRC

Western Europe - PRC

Western Europe - South America

Central Europe - Western Europe

Domestic Brazil

South America - USA

Asia advanced - Asia emerging

Asia advanced - PRC

Intra Middle East

2015

2035

x3.7 x1.5

x1.7 x1.7

x2.6 x3.5

x4.7 x3.4

x5.6 x3.5

x3.4 x3.8

x2.3 x2.1 x2.6 x2.6 x2.4 x2.5 x3.0 x3.1

Asia Pacific leading growth - 50% of the top twenty traffic flows will involve Asia Pacific

Annual traffic per leg flow (billion RPK)

Source: Airbus GMF 2016

Page 18: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Domestic traffic in India to grow more than 5-fold over next 20 years

Source: DGCA India, Airbus GMF

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

History Forecast

Domestic India - Annual traffic per leg flow (billion RPK)

Page 19: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

70% of traffic growth until 2035 will come from existing network

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

2015 2035

Trillion RPK

Growth from new routes

Growth from existing network

Source: Airbus GMF 2016

70%

30%

Page 20: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF 2016

There are currently 55 Aviation Mega-Cities… 2015 Aviation Mega-Cities

55 Aviation

Mega-cities

1M Daily Passengers: long-haul traffic to/

from/via Mega-Cities

90%+ of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via 55 cities

25% of World

GDP in 2015

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

Page 21: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: Sabre (September 2015 data), Airbus GMF 2016

Routes between Aviation Mega-Cities have more premium passengers

14%

9% 7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Aviation Mega-City toAviation Mega-City

Aviation Mega-City toSecondary City

Secondary City toSecondary City

Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

Percentage of premium passengers on routes types

11% average

Page 22: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

47 of 55 Aviation Mega-Cities main airports are schedule-constrained 2015 Aviation Mega-Cities

IATA WSG level 1: airport infrastructure is adequate

IATA WSG level 2: airports with potential for congestion

IATA WSG level 3: airports where conditions make it impossible to meet demand Source: IATA WSG database,

Airbus GMF 2016

Page 23: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, OAG (Sept 2015), Airbus GMF 2016

38 of the Aviation Mega-Cities fly the A380 2015 Aviation Mega-Cities

Flying the A380

Page 24: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF 2016

There will be 93 Aviation Mega-Cities by 2035 2035 Aviation Mega-Cities

93 Aviation

Mega-cities

2.5M Daily Passengers: Long-Haul traffic

to/ from/via Mega-Cities

95%+ of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via 93 cities

35% of World

GDP in 2035

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

Page 25: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: Airbus GMF 2016

Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes

Stay in service

Replacement

Growth 39,860

33,070 New

aircraft

6,750

12,830

20,240

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Beginning 2016 2035

Demand for some 33,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft

19,580

Fleet in service evolution: 2016-2035 39,820

Page 26: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

In 2015, an aircraft generates 50% more RPKs than in 1995

7.6 hours/day

1995 9,800 = 160

seats/flight 68% load factor

Source: ICAO, OAG, Ascend, Airbus

2015 18,000 = 8.6

hours/day 172 seats/flight

80% load factor

1 1995 1 2015 = Yearly RPK per a/c

1.5x

pax a/c above 100 seats

pax a/c above 100 seats

Page 27: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 20142015 2016

Airline profitability - Q2/2016 update

US AIRLINES (sample representing 20% of world traffic)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 20142015 2016

EUROPEAN AIRLINES (sample representing 15% of world traffic) EBIT margin (%)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 20142015 2016

EMERGING MARKETS AIRLINES (sample representing 15% of world traffic) EBIT margin (%)

EBIT margin (%)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 20142015 2016

AIRLINES WORLDWIDE (sample representing 60% of world traffic) EBIT margin (%)

Source: The Airline Analyst, Airbus

Page 28: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Productivity increasing, stored aircraft around historical low St

ored

Ai

rcra

ft Pr

oduc

tivity

Source: Ascend, OAG, Airbus

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT PRODUCTIVITY ASKs per aircraft in service year-over-year monthly evolution (%)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N2014 2015 2016 2017

Twin-Aisle + VLA

Single-Aisle

+0.2% +0.7%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

New Mid Old Share

STORED PASSENGER AIRCRAFT* Number of aircraft stored at end of the period Share of fleet (%)

* Western-built passenger aircraft ≥100 seats

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 J A S O N D

2015 2016

Page 29: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2533

3421 3715 3488 3552

4437 4682

5559 6386

6831

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Swaps A320-A330ceo/neo

Cancellations

Backlog

20/09/2016 Use Tab 'Insert - Header & Footer' for Presentation Title - Siglum - Reference

Page 29

Backlog x 2.7 since 2006 – Cancellations within historic bounds

% Cancellations year N / Backlog year N-1

2% 5% 4% 1% 2% 5% 2% 2% 1% 4%

% Swaps ceo to neo

+2% +1% +1%

Page 30: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Airbus backlog Airbus deliveries (scale 1/5 x backlog)

Backlog and delivery ratio above 10:1 in 2015

Page 31: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Airbus backlog Airbus deliveries (scale 1/5 x backlog)

Backlog and delivery ratio at 7:1 in 2020, A320 at rate 60 from mid 2019

Page 32: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

3,850

860

-

2,990

-

5,910

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Wide-body Fleet, Beginning2016

Wide-body Fleet, 2035

Growth

Replacement

Stay in Service

Demand for ~8,900 additional new passenger widebody aircraft until 2035

Passenger large Wide-body (number of aircraft)

Source: GMF2016 Backlog based on GMF –September 2015

9,760

BACKLOG 25%

OPEN_DEMAND 75%

8,900 New

Widebody Aircraft

Page 33: Global Market Forecast Presented by: Bob LANGE Head · PDF fileGlobal Market Forecast . Presented by: Bob LANGE . ... twin-aisle aircraft 250-400 seater passenger aircraft 10-80 tonne

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Summary

• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth

• Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years

• As air transport develops, new drivers become more significant

• Demand for 33,070 new aircraft by 2035: ~32,430 passenger aircraft and 650 freighters

• 40% of passenger aircraft demand needed for replacement, and 60% for growth

• Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and wide-bodies represent 54% of value

• VLA demand largely concentrated on Aviation Mega-Cities and network efficiencies will facilitate new

VLA destinations