Global Lead-Acid Battery Trends And Component …...Lead-acid battery VRLA lead-acid battery NiMH...
Transcript of Global Lead-Acid Battery Trends And Component …...Lead-acid battery VRLA lead-acid battery NiMH...
© 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Global Lead-Acid Battery Trends And Component Advances
- Through The Lens Of A Component Supplier
Dr. Pete Smith
May 3rd, 2016
© 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
Energy Storage History
Li-ion has Performance Advantages but Lead-acid Retains Significant Share Why the Consternation about the Lead-acid Battery Industry?
Developed in
1970s
Invented in 1967/
commercialized in
1990s
NiMH: Nickel–metal Hydride; Li-ion: Lithium-ion
Lead-acid battery VRLA lead-acid battery NiMH battery Lithium-Ion battery
Invented in 1970s/
commercialized in
1990s
Performance Comparison
Lead Acid NiMH/Li-ion
Wh/kg 35-40 140-150
Wh/liter 70 400
Charge Efficiency 75% 97%
Deeper Discharge
Tolerance up to 80% up to 100%
Discharge Cycle X 2X
Cost X 3X
Li-ion/NiMH has significant advantages over lead-acid
battery on energy density, charge efficiency, deep cycling
and discharge cycles
MWh
Highest growth in
Li-ion in last decade
Global Battery Market Growth
Source: Avicenne Energy and UltraLife
Invented in 1859
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Lead-acid Attractiveness
Lower Energy Density
Limited Charge Efficiency
Not Very Deep Cycling
Production Environment
…
Lead-acid Battery
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Capital Investment Examples
– Enterprise Value/EBITDA:
JCI (~10X)
Enersys (~8.3X)
– Private equity sponsor investment
Trojan, Exide Technology, C&D
Capacity expansion
Lead-acid Industry Attractiveness
Continuing Capital Investments and Expanding Capacity in the Lead-acid Industry
Source: Johnson Controls and Enersys 10K, Company official website, Daily Register, BEST magazine, Yahoo Finance
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2011 2014 2013 2012
Johnson Controls Enersys
Industry Property, Plant and
Equipment Investment
JCI: announced the investments of $555 million
between 2011 and 2020 to expand capacity –
Johnson Controls Official Website (2015)
$, million
Enersys: announced acquisitions in Australia,
South East Asia, South America and built
plant China in last 5 years (2010-2015))
East Penn looking at $66.8 million dollar
expansion in Oelwein
– Daily Register News (2015)
Significant investment and valuations Significant and sustained investment
Daramic: new capacity expansion in
China and India
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Lead-acid Industry Innovation
Significant Innovation Increases in the Last 10 Years across All Regions
World Wide Patent Filings Related to
Lead-acid Batteries Overview
5,278
1,785
1995-2005
196%
2006-2015
World Wide Patent Filings Related to
Lead-acid Batteries by Region
294
114
276
603
498
592
424
802
Europe
Korea
1,082
2,378
US
China
International
Patent Filling (2006-2015)
Patent Filling (1995-2005)
21
7% 217%
133%
154%
519%
809%
Source: Keyword patent search
Step change increase Global innovation
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Lead-acid Battery Patents
Mix of Conglomerates, Lead-acid manufacturers, Suppliers and Application Owners Invested in Patents
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
JOHNSON
CONTROLS
TOSHIBA GS
YUASA
PANASONIC DARAMIC ASAHI KASEI SANYO
ELECTRIC.
IQ POWER LG
CHEM
SHIN KOBE ITM
SEMICONDUC
Top filers in International lead-acid battery category
2005-Present
Li-ion battery makers Separator
maker
Separator
maker
(cross IP)
# of independent
patent
Source: Keyword patent search
Lead-acid
battery makers
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Why Does Innovation Happen Now?
Lead-acid Battery
Large investments in
the industry and highest
patent filing in history
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Start-Stop in Automotive requests
battery always in PSOC
Battery Working Pattern Changes
Both Automotive and Industrial Batteries Evolved with Higher Usage Frequency and Higher Power Output under PSoC*
Automotive
Industrial
Battery working pattern (1995-2005) Battery working pattern (2005-2015)
Battery mainly for starting vehicle
low discharge percentage and
always fully charged
Battery (forklift) operates in an
organized way, enough time in
charging and cooling down
• Forklift battery needs to work more
efficiently with faster charging
• Renewable energy also has limited
time to charge battery
*PSoC: Partial State of Charge
Depth
of
disch
arg
e
Depth
of
disch
arg
e
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Battery Discharge Depth Changes
Wider range of partial state of charge and higher energy output and discharge deeper across automotive and
industrial applications
Battery Working Pattern Changes in All Key Lead-acid Applications
Depth
of
Dis
charg
e %
80%
10%
50%
Fully
charged
Fully
discharged
Auto
Industrial
Motive
Power Stationary
Auto
Industrial
Motive
Power Stationary
Battery working pattern (1995-2005) Battery working pattern (2005-2015)
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What Is The Future And Implication?
Lead-acid Battery
Working pattern changes
will drive battery
performance changes
across applications in
future
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New Insights/Changes in Automotive
Increasing Auto Electrification Requires Lead-acid Improvements of Charge Acceptance, Durability and Power Output
Vehicle Electrification Requirement
Lead-Acid Battery
Li-on / Ni-MH / etc.
Heat
Resistance
Cost
Reduction
Charge
Acceptance
Power
Output Cycling in
PSOC*
*Partial State of Charge
Improvement
Improvement Other Key Component
Battery management system became
critical to impact battery performance/life
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New Insights/Changes in Motive Power
Better Utilization Requires the Improvement of Rechargability and Higher Output while Maintaining Long Life
%
Working hour Working hour
Forklift Traditional Working Pattern
Depth
of
disch
arg
e
%
Forklift New Working Pattern*(Trend)
Lead-Acid Battery
Historical Battery Utilization Requirement
In work
(discharge) Off work
(charge)
In work
(discharge) Off work
(charge)
In work
(discharge) Off work
(charge)
Depth
of
disch
arg
e
Improvement
Longer Life in
faster charge Longer Life with
higher capacity
Other Key Component
Charger needs to deliver more
and impact on battery life
0
50
100
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
50
100
0 5 10 15 20 25
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New Insights/Changes in Stationary
Battery Needs Better Cycling and Lower Maintenance
Telecom Renewable Energy
Telecom and renewable energy – mainly work in remote and hot area - requires no/low maintenance
Renewable energy
– Unstable charge/discharge which leads to PSOC operation
– Deep cycling
Lead-Acid Battery
Improvement
No/Low
maintenance Rechargeability
& deep cycling
0
50
100
150
+10.1%
2018F 2014
Stationary+
Renewable Energy
M, cell
Source: Transparency Market Research & Daramic Internal Analysis
Battery diagnostic system needs
remote tracking on performance
Other Key Component
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Through The Lens Of A Supplier
Lead-acid Battery
Component
Innovation is occurring
in battery operating
cycle, battery design
and battery application.
- What does this imply
for the supply base?
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Evolution Of Lead Usage
Cost efficiency is a major target in Automotive SLI,
especially better utilization of the main
component, lead, which price increased 300% in
last 10 years
Simultaneously, battery life/performance must be
retained while reducing lead quantity
– Especially in the heavy duty applications
Major Cost Component, Lead, Used More Efficiently
Punched
300%+
Lead Price Evolution
Lead p
rice
($)
Better utilization of lead (Cost Efficiency) _
+
Cast Expanded Metal Punch
Source: LEM Lead Price
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Innovation Drivers From BOM
Most of the Bill Of Materials (BOM) are commodities
The Industry has focused on lead
What does drive the future?
– Innovation drivers: separator, battery management system, additives
Categorization of BOM Shows Innovation Opportunities
Battery Bill of Materials/Performance Related Materials
Innovation Drivers
Commodity Materials
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Battery Raw Materials Breakdown
Others
Acid
Separators
Bushings
Hot-melt
PP case/lid
Lead
BOM Categorization
Acid Lead
PP case …
Separator BMS
Additives
(Carbon)
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BOM Innovation vs. Industry Needs
Innovation Drivers can Impact the Requirement Demanded by Emerging Lead-acid Battery Applications
Separator
Additives
(Carbon)
Battery Management
System
Lamination
Poly case
Hot-melt
Acid
Other chemical additives
Plate equipment
Pasting paper Partial State Of
Charge X X
High Power
Output X X
Longer Lifecycle X X
Dynamic Charge
Acceptance X X
No/low
maintenance X
Industry Needs Automotive Industrial
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Length scale
Time scale
10-9 10-6 10-3 100
(nm) (um) (mm) (m)
100 (sec)
10-3 (msec)
10-6 (msec)
10-9 (nsec)
10-12 (psec)
10-15 (fsec)
Fluid dynamics,
Finite element analysis
Charge transfer
Stress Strain
Behavior of Materials
Plate design and
arrangement
Mechanical properties of battery
components
Electrochemistry on battery surfaces
Redox reactions
Separator Phase Engineering
Acid stratification
How Does A BOM Innovation Approach Industry Needs?
Physical/Chemical Phenomena over Wide Length/Time Scale Potential Improvements Represent Industry Opportunities
From atomic scale(nm/fsec) to real life scale (m/sec)
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Molecular Dynamics Simulation
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Summary
After 100+ years as an energy storage technology, lead-acid is still attracting investment, adding
capacity and focusing on innovation.
– Continuous investments and capacity expansion
– Significant innovation (patent) increases in last 10 years
Some of the innovation is a response from the threat from other technologies (e.g. Li-ion)
Some of the innovation comes from use models for lead-acid batteries
Regardless of the history or the technological threats, lead acid industry is attractive and innovative
In the past 10 years, the lead-acid industry has become pioneering with respect to innovation
– With new applications emerging and battery working pattern changes, batteries in both Automotive and Industrial evolved to
higher usage frequencies and to supplying more power output under partial state of charge
– Lead-acid batteries are also required to discharge deeply
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Summary (Cont’d)
Technical changes drive the battery performance improvement across applications moving forward
– Better dynamic charge acceptance
– Good capability in partial state of charge
– Longer lifecycle
– High power output
From the supplier/BOM viewpoint
– Lead utilization has been optimized
– Opportunities to meet emerging industry needs reside in the separator, battery management system and additives
To guide supplier development, we think a fundamental approach focused on length scales and time
scales in the battery will yield the most innovative component technology and a more robust and
competitive lead-acid battery and lead-acid battery industry