Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions...
Transcript of Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions...
Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Ecosystem Services (GLUES): A Collaborative Initiative Based on Multiple Place-Based Assessment StudiesRalf Seppelt, Florian EppinkTitel Foto Jocke Berglund
Martin-Luther UniversitätHalle-Wittenberg
Land management: crucial through limitation
Seite 2
Foley et al (2009, Science)
Driver Population development Consumption pattern Urbanization Climate change Globalization
Land use Agriculture (14%) Pasture, meadows (26%) Infrastructure (0,5%) Forests (35%) Protection sites (11%)
Harvesting our Earth (HANPP)
Seite 3
Agriculture (1961-1999) 12% increase in cropland 10% rise in permanent pasture Increase of 106% of overall food
crop yield per unit area Green, (2005, Science)
Haberl et al. (2007, PNAS)
Human NPP Appropriation 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of
potential net primary productivity 53% harvest, 40% land-use-induced
productivity changes, 7% by human-induced fire
97% rise in the area of land under irrigation, 638%, 203%, and 854% increase, in
the use of fertilizers
Harvesting our earth
Seite 4
Haberl et al. (2009, PNAS)
Biocapacity per country
WWF
IPCC, 2005
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 18,2 % Land use change 13,8 % Agriculture
WWF
Protecting Biodiversity
Seite 5
Protection sites 11.5%GAP Analysis for
Mammals, Amphibian, BirdsRecent protection sites are
defined neither byoThreat (a)oValue (b)
Offers priorities (c)
Rodriguez et al. (2004, BioScience)
Some conclusions
Global maps are an important input for international processes
Land management is a regional processo direct feedbacks between
ecosystem services and human well being
o Regional case studies are keyo How to learn lessons?Roundsepp-Haerne et al. (2010, BioScience)
Review: Place-based Studies
Considered uncertaintyData sourceEcosystem services in
isolationModelling approachesValuationNumber of ecosystem
servicesScenario-AnalysisSpecific recommendationsStakeholder involvement
Seppelt et al. (2011, JApplEcol)
Seite 8
Place-based Ecosystem Service studies
It is unclear to what degree biophysical realism is required in ecosystem service assessments
Methods to analyse trade offs among ecosystem services and economic goals are not well developed
Consideration of off-site effects is extremely rare
Involvement of stakeholders rarely extends to the implementation phase (‚ownership‘)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 17 19 20 22
otherno interactioninteraction
#ES considered in each Study
#Stu
dies
05
1015
20Seppelt et al. (2011, JApplEcol)
Seite 9
GLUES: The Core Idea and Objectives
Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Ecosystem Services (GLUES): A Collaborative Initiative Based on Multiple Place-Based Assessment Studies
www.sustainable-landmanagement.net
Development of methods and tools for sustainable land management in different regional, hot sport regionsdevelop methods for synthesis based on the results of regional research projects based on consistent global land useand climate change data.
Place Based Studies
Seite 10
…in the Programme Sustainable Land Management
Syndroms of Land ManagementIntensively managed Agro-Ecosystems, determined by agro-environmental political schemes
Land use, management
Highly regulated, protection sites, possible conflict to biofuelproduction
Energy Input, GHG
High energy input, fossil fuel based agriculture
Biodiversity Strong pressure, monocultures, alien species
Ecosystem Services
Regulating functions reduced,supporting functions substituted
Syndroms of Land ManagementR Regional land management
driven by global markets
Land use, management
Lang grabbing, loss of wetlands, loss of native forests, conflict of biofuels to regional agriculture
Energy Input, GHG
C loss through deforestation
Biodiversity Reduction of biodiversity in species rich regions.
Ecosystem Services
Regulation and supporting functions threatened, cultural services through loss of established land use practices
Syndroms of Land ManagementClimate Change as predominant driver: increasing temperature, water stress
Land use, management
Loss of soil stability, new land management schemes required, possible
Energy Input, GHG
Loss of permafrost soil, methaneemissions, more frequent fire events
Biodiversity Loss of biodiversity, change of habitat, species shifts
Ecosystem Services
Change in regulation function, loss of supporting function
Place Based Studies
Seite 14
…in the Programme Sustainable Land Management
Four pillars of the GLUES project
Seite 15
Szenario, Models & Synthesis Common Geodata Infrastructure
Communication & Outreach Stakeholder & Products
GLUES: Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Ecosystem Services
GLUES’s Methodology and Products
GLUES GDI (Geodata Infrastructure) –provides a common infrastructure to share and maintain distributed global and regional data sets, scenario data and model results.
Szenarioso Mid-Term Projections (2030/50) – incorporate
feedbacks of agricultural markets, land use and climate
o Long-Term Scenarios (2100) land use change scenarios based on global sustainability goals and climate change, used to project land management impacts on global climate.
Synthesis develops methods and tools for trade-off and off-site effect analysis, valuation of ecosystem services and support instruments development
Conclusion Summary
Support for stakeholder and communication into international conventions
Work on global scale and embedded place based studies.o Further partners welcome
Provide consistent global scenarios and models is key for synthesiso Additional users welcome