GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF LATINO POPULATION GROWTH

AND THE SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

Oregon State UniversityOctober 9, 2012

Source: World Bank, Selig Center for Economic Growth and LDC CalculationsNote: Nominal GDP, not adjusted for purchasing power parity

United States($12.2 trillion)

China($3.5

trillion)

India($1.3T

)

Brazil($2.0T)

U.S. Hispanics

($1.2T)

U.S. Hispanic Consumer –Global View(as of 2012)

Russia($1.2T)

Luxe

mbo

urg

Switz

erla

nd

Swed

en

Nethe

rland

s

Finla

nd

Irela

nd

Japa

n

Germ

any

Unite

d Kin

gdom

US Hisp

anics

Israe

l

Slov

enia

Portu

gal

Slov

ak R

epub

licChi

le

Pola

nd

Mexico

Russian

Fed

erat

ion

China

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$48,442

$32,882 $32,882

$13,089 $12,594 $5,430

$1,489

GDP per capita as of 2010 (est.)*

Source: World Bank, U.S. Census, Selig Center for Economic Growth and LDC Calculations. * - Data for US Hispanics based on 2012 data.

OECD Average: $39,997

BRIC Average:$8,151

Comparative GDP/capita for U.S. Hispanics

(10th

)(19th

)

Trade with Mexico: Exports Create U.S. Jobs

Canada Mexico China

$300

$188

$113

Top 3 U.S. Export Markets($ in

billions)

Source: International Trade Administration (goods trade) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (services trade) and “Middle-class Mexicans snap up more products ‘Made in USA’”, Washington Post, September 9, 2012.

Mexico is our 2nd largest market for exports and the U.S. is the largest global market for Mexican exports

In 2011, U.S. exports to Mexico grew by $34 billion, the biggest dollar increase in U.S. exports to any market worldwide

Approximately 6 million U.S. jobs depend on trade with Mexico

“The growing middle class that is fast becoming Mexico’s majority is buying more U.S. goods than ever…” – Washington Post

Trade with Latin America vs. China

China Latin America

1,344

595

China Latin America

8.0%

3.8%

Population

Forecast GDP Growth

Total Trade (Exports + Imports)

Source: World Bank (population), Economist Intelligence Unit (GDP growth), International Trade Administration (goods trade) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (services trade)

China Latin America

$457 $656

$31

$191

Goods Services

$488

$847($ in

billions)(in millions)

At the current pace of projected economic growth, U.S. trade with China would not overcome Latin America until…

In order to match trade with Latin America by 2020, China would need annual growth of…

2024

12.3%

THE SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the Center for American Progress.

80% …of non-Hispanics associate Hispanics with NOT speaking

English

Reality:

Hispanics learning English at same rates as past immigrants

Nearly all 2nd generation Hispanics have mastered English

ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ

33% believe >50% “illegal”

75%overestimate

Reality:

only 17% of Hispanics are in the country illegally

Hispanics Widely Misunderstood…

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012.

80%

70%

80%

Non-Hispanics Think or Associate Hispanics with…

…Leading to Negative Stereotypes

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012 and Pew Hispanic Center.

strong family structure and religious values

hard-working most people can get ahead in life if they work hard

90% 90%

80%

Non-Hispanics also think or associate Hispanics with… And Latinos believe…

Despite Some Positive Associations…

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012.

Among Hispanic issues covered by the media, immigration and the U.S.-Mexican border has the highest volume of negative coverage, with nearly twice the volume of the leading positive issue (H+K)

Positive media coverage on Hispanics’ economic contributions, work ethic and religious faith comprises less than half the volume of media coverage on the leading negative topic, immigration and the U.S.-Mexican border

…Media Coverage Reinforces the Negative

Latino Growth in Key DemosProjection of Latinos Age 18-34

(in millions)Projection of Latinos Age 18-49

(in millions)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Projections of the National Population, 2009

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

13.314.6

16.3

18.3

20.0

(19%)

(20%)

(22%)

(24%)

(26%)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

23.6

26.1

28.7

31.5

34.3

(17%)

(19%)

(21%)

(22%)

(24%)

Metric Example Value

Banking Chairman or CEO, Top 10 banks by assets

N/A 0%

Academic Institutions

President, top 50 undergraduate institutions

University of Texas system 1 chancellor

Hollywood Studios

Chief / Head top 10 studios by box office revenue

N/A none

Top Foundations

President and Trustees, top 10 foundations by assets

Luis Ubiñas(Ford Foundation)

1 president

5% trustees

Silicon Valley

Chairman or CEO, Top 10 tech companies by revenue

N/A 0%

Fortune 100

CEO of Fortune 100 companies

George Paz (Express Scripts) 1 CEO

Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. News and World Report, School websites, Box Office Mojo, Studio websites, The Foundation Center, various Foundation websites, Fortune and The Wall Street Journal

Progress on Key Metrics

1.5% Fortune 1000

1.5% Fortune 1000

Source: Hispanic Association on Corporate Responsibility 2007 Corporate Governance Study; U.S. News & World Report; Alliance for Board Diversity Report, July 2011, and Korn/Ferry International

3.7% Fortune 100 board seats are held by

Hispanics

3.7% Fortune 100 board seats are held by

Hispanics

3.0% Fortune 500

3.0% Fortune 500

Enacted (5)Pending (9)Failed (15)

Tougher measures subsequently failed

Source: Based on data from the National Conference on State Legislatures, 2011-2012 and the National Council of La Raza

Original bill amended in response to successful

court challenge

Progress of AZ-style Legislation

Conclusion

Latinos are driving economic and population growth in the U.S.

On the global stage, the U.S. Hispanic market represents the largest high-growth market opportunity

The level of trade between the U.S. and Latin America requires a re-focusing of foreign policy

Latinos are still grossly underrepresented in media – this lack of representation leads to negative perceptions about Latinos

However, we have A LOT of work remaining on elevating Latinos to the leadership ranks of business, finance, technology, academia and politics