Global health and sustainable food securityWhy the livestock sectors of developing countries matter

Global Animal Health ConferenceDeveloping global animal health products to support food security and sustainability

Arlington, Virginia, 17-18 October 2013

Jimmy Smith, Director General, ILRI

Disclaimer

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These slides are the intellectual property of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). They are licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported Licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

Key messages

1GLOBALFOOD SECURITYSmallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future

2 GLOBALLIVESTOCK MARKETS

Demand for livestock in developing countriesis rising fast

3GLOBALANIMAL HEALTHGlobal food securitydepends onbetter animal health

4GLOBALANIMAL HEALTH MARKETSAnimal health marketsare big marketsin developing countries

GlobalFood Security

Food security and sustainability

How will the world feed itself sustainablyby the time the population stabilizes about 2050?

• 60% more food than is produced now will be needed

• 75% of this must come from productivity − not land − increases

• The higher production must be achieved while reducing poverty and addressing environmental, social and health concerns

• This greater production will have to be achieved in theface of temperatures 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s

Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today

Malnutrition is costly.FAO estimates the costs of malnutrition

to be as high as US$3.5 trillion a year

Gains in meat consumption in developing countries outpace that of developed countries

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric t

onne

s

FAO 2006

Global food production: From where?

Herrero et al. 2009

Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supplythe large proportionof livestock products

Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive

East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers

have same levels of efficiency and profits

Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs

than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet

no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork

IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

GlobalLivestockMarkets

4 out of 5 of the highest valueglobal commodities are livestock

FAOSTAT 2013

Percentage increase in demandfor livestock products

Developing Countries Developed Countries0

20

40

60

80

100

120

MeatMilkEggs

2000 to 2040

IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results

Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries

Global trade of livestock products(million tonnes, milk excluded)

pig meat beef eggs poultry meat

sheep and goat meat

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19672007

Adapted from FAO 2012

Global trade of livestock products(million tonnes, milk included)

pig meat beef eggs milk poultry meat

sheep and goat

meat

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19672007

Adapted from FAO 2012

GlobalAnimal Health

Smallholders can commercialize

Smallholders can continue to most provide livestock products in most developing countries only ifthe following animal health problems are addressed:

• Poor market access− Reduce food safety problems that reduce

market participation by smallholders

• Low productivity − Reduce endemic animal diseases that lower productivity

• Zoonotic diseases − Lower zoonotic disease transmissions that threaten

small-scale livestock producers in poor countriesas well as human health in all countries

Food safety in developing countries

• Most milk, meat and eggsare sold in informal markets

• We need to manage the risks (of illness) while retaining the benefits (to livelihoods, food/nutrition security) of informally sold livestock foods

• Perceptions can be misleading:e.g., handling cattle or drinking milk is as risky as eating vegetables

Country Percent

Kenya 86

Tanzania 95

Uganda 90

Rwanda 90

Ethiopia 95

Malawi 95

Zambia 90

Percent of milk marketedin informal markets

Food safety in developing countries

• Gender issues are important issues in food safety

• Health advice is most useful when it is context-specific,based on evidence, and developed in and with local communities

• Social incentives(‘good parents do x . . .’)and risk- rather thanrule-based approacheswork best

• Relatively simple and cheapinterventions can lead tosubstantial improvementsin food safety

Innovations, incentives and institutionsfor managing food-borne diseases

• Develop and test technologies• Train, brand and certify informal actors• Development local capacity

Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis Women butchers sell safer meat than men

Steinfeld et al. 2006

Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries

Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk

Annual losses from selected diseases –Africa and South Asia

Estimates from BMGF

Endoparasit

esPPR

CBPP

Ectopara

sites

CCPPFM

DTry

ps

Shoat pox

Newcastl

e

Bruce

llosis

Bovine TBLS

DRVF

ECFBVD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

South AsiaAfrica

Billi

on $

lost

yea

rly

AfricaSouth Asia

• Animal disease is a key constraint:Remove it and animal productivity increases greatly

• As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase

Young Adult

Cattle 22% 6%

Shoat 28% 11%

Poultry 70% 30%

Otte & Chilonda, IAEA

Annual mortality of African livestock(About half due to preventable or curable diseases)

Animal disease is a key constraint in Africa

Almost all losses are in developing countries

A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each yearkill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion

Lept

ospi

rosis

TB (zoo

)

Rabie

s

Cystic

erco

sis

Leish

man

iasis

Bruce

llosis

Echin

ococ

cosis

Toxop

lasm

osis

Q feve

r

Sleep

ing

sickn

ess

Anthr

ax0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses

Greatest burden of zoonoses falls onone billion poor livestock keepers

Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012

Emerging zoonotic disease events, 1940−2012

Map by IOZ, published in an ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012

PeriodCost

(conservative estimates) 6 outbreaks excluding SARS − Nipah virus (Malaysia) − West Nile fever (USA) − HPAI (Asia, Europe) − BSE (US) − Rift Valley fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) − BSE (UK) costs 1997−09 only

1998−2009 38.7

SARS 2002−2004 41.5

Total over 12 years 1998−2009 80.2

Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks(US$ billion)

World Bank 2012

Giving an annual average of US$6.7 billion

1998

2007

African swine fever threatensUS$150-billion global pig industry

Global Animal Health Markets

• Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry

• Global human health market = $1,000 billion

• Global animal health market(livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion

• Global livestock health market = $13 billion

• Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion

• Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15%

• Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth (2nd after Latin America)

Animal health markets in developing countries: Significant and growing

Animal health markets:Where is the demand?

15 countries make up more than 85%of the global animal health market:

• Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK

• Asia: Japan, China, India, Korea

• Americas: Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico

• Oceania: Australia

Developing and emerging countriesare increasingly important

Animal health markets:India

• 500 million livestock,1 billion poultry

• Livestock sector is 2nd-largest contributor to GDP (6%)

• World’s biggestdairy producer

• Animal health marketannual growth over 8%

• Worth $370 million in 2008:52% cattle, 38% poultry

Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries

• Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages)

• Delivery systems for small farms

• Surveillance for drug resistance

• ‘One Health’ approaches and ‘Rational Drug Use’ for both people and animals

• ‘Game-changing products’:e.g., vaccines for Newcastledisease and East Coast fever

• Quality assurance forveterinary medicines

Key messages

1GLOBALFOOD SECURITYSmallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future

2 GLOBALLIVESTOCK MARKETS

Demand for livestock in developing countriesis rising fast

3GLOBALANIMAL HEALTHGlobal food securitydepends onbetter animal health

4GLOBALANIMAL HEALTH MARKETSAnimal health marketsare big marketsin developing countries

Last words

The risks of ignoring pressing animal healthissues in the developing world are huge:− Lost livelihoods and food in developing countries− Reduced global food security− Impaired human health in all countries

The opportunities for improving animal healthin developing countries are just as big:− A significant and rapidly growing market

achieved with appropriate approaches

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

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