Global Gold & Precious

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June 2013 Global Gold & Precious

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Global Gold & Precious. Table of Contents. Commodities AM in a few words Too late to sell Gold bullion: b ack to basics Gold mines vs. Gold bullion Global Gold and Precious Investment process Portfolio snapshots Performance Fund management team Fund terms Take- Away Contacts. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Global Gold & Precious

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Global Gold & PreciousJune 2013SEPTEMBRE 200911Table of ContentsCommodities AM in a few wordsToo late to sellGold bullion: back to basicsGold mines vs. Gold bullionGlobal Gold and PreciousInvestment processPortfolio snapshotsPerformanceFund management teamFund termsTake-AwayContactsNSEPTEMBRE 20092Commodities AM in a few wordsFully independent French Asset Management company Approved by AMF* under N GP97016Specialist of thematic equity funds: Gold & Precious Metals Energy & Natural ResourcesActive management style, with direct allocation to listed stocks globally, which relies on the portfolio managers' industry sector expertise12-year track-record, with first-class French industry awardsAttractive product offer that meets investment needs of institutional investors, private banking/IFAs clientele and third party asset managers acting as allocators for multi-management funds or for individual discretionary mandates. * Autorit des Marchs Financiers / French supervisory body NSEPTEMBRE 20093Too late to SellBe Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are FearfulSource : Wall Street Journal, Financial Times

NSEPTEMBRE 20094Too late to SellBe Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are FearfulSource: Bloomberg

NSEPTEMBRE 20095Too late to SellBe Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are FearfulSource: Bloomberg

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Gold bullion: back to basicsFewer Gold Discoveries and a Flat Production

Source: Metals Economics Group, Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012Represents 189 gold deposits discovered since 1990, each with at least 1M oz. gold in reserves, or combination of reserves, resources and past production of 2 M oz. gold NSEPTEMBRE 20097

Gold bullion: back to basicsSignificant Gold drill results announcedWith no improvement in sightSource: Metals Economics Group, Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012

NSEPTEMBRE 20098

Gold bullion: back to basicsPipeline activity index falling, validated by companies cutting their exploration budgetsBased on slower activity on the fieldsSource: Metals Economics Group, Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012

NSEPTEMBRE 20099Longer Time from Discoveries to ProductionGold bullion: back to basics

Source: Metals Economics Group Minesearch Database & Estimates, Company ReportsNNLower Average Grade and Higher CostsGold bullion: back to basics

Source: NRH Research 2012 Ranking Gold Mines & Deposits2012

All in costs @ USD 1 285*

* GOS MatrixAverage gold grade of undeveloped deposits of over 1M ounces is 0.66 g/t NSEPTEMBRE 200911

Gold bullion: back to basicsWhile Demand remains elevatedSource: World Gold Council* Q1 2013 annualized (assumes 700 tonnes in ETFs outflows, or 25% of total holdings)NSEPTEMBRE 200912Gold bullion: back to basicsCentral Banks are Net BuyersSource: World Gold Council

* Q1 2013 annualized (109 tonnes purchased in Q1 2013)NSEPTEMBRE 200913Gold bullion: back to basics Confront short term ETFs investment selloff headwinds mainly from IAsSource : World Gold Council, BofA Merril Lynch Global Commodity Research

NSEPTEMBRE 200914Gold bullion: back to basics And extreme non commercial short positions (Futures only)Source: Bloomberg, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

NSEPTEMBRE 200915Gold bullion: back to basics Structural macro issues intact...The playground consisting of:

Competitive devaluations

Low real interest rates and

Money supply (decelerating rate of growth presently)

remains very supportive of a sustainable growth in the price of gold. Any reacceleration of the money supply will stress the depth of the uptrend.

Source : US Federal ReserveNNGold mines vs. Physical goldFACTS:Since 2000, gold mining companies outperformed gold bullion 44% of the time (6/13,5).After 2 years of outperformance (2009 2010), gold mining companies underperformed gold in 2011, 2012 and YTD.

MUCH WORSE: they delivered negative absolute returns in 2011 and 2012 while gold progressed at a double digit paceAND they demonstrated an erosion of their excess return in uptrend markets since 2006. NNSEPTEMBRE 200917Gold mines vs. Physical gold Annual Performance (net, in USD, as of 04/30/13)

NSEPTEMBRE 200918Gold mines vs. Physical goldYES, Gold mining companies are undervalued on a relative and absolute basis on many criterias:Gold index / Gold bullionHistorical profitability levels (operating margins, net margins)NAV multiplesUS$ value of an ounce in the groundMkt K / oz produced NNSEPTEMBRE 200919Gold Mines are undervalued on a historical basis (20 year horizon)Gold mines vs. Physical goldSource: Bloomberg

NNSEPTEMBRE 200920Gold Mines are undervalued on a historical basis (20 year horizon)Gold mines vs. Physical goldSource: Bloomberg

NNSEPTEMBRE 200921Producers vs Juniors/ExplorersUptrend vs. downtrend marketsGold mines vs. Physical goldProducer IndexGDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) Explorer IndexMVGDXJ (Mkt Vector Junior Gold Miners Index)Source: Bloomberg

NNSEPTEMBRE 200922Juniors are close to technical capitulation levelsGold mines vs. Physical goldProducer IndexGDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) Explorer IndexMVGDXJ (Mkt Vector Junior Gold Miners Index)Source: Bloomberg

NNSEPTEMBRE 200923So are the SeniorsGold mines vs. Physical goldProducer IndexGDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) Explorer IndexMVGDXJ (Mkt Vector Junior Gold Miners Index)Source: Bloomberg

NNSEPTEMBRE 200924Gold mines vs. Physical goldGold mining companies have been penalized for not being able to deliver the expected historical leverage resulting from a higher gold price. Despite a historical high profitability (19% of net margins in Q1 2013), the latter have stagnated these last two years while gold price increased by 13% over the same period. THE REAL QUESTION: will gold mines regain their historical leverage? many fundamental elements demonstrate that the mining industry understood the message sent by the investment community and several managerial strategic decisions made in the last few months validate this pointThese decisions have a double objective: rationalize the operations and reduce the dilution that plagued the industry. NNSEPTEMBRE 200925Gold mines vs. Physical goldMany board of Directors made their top executives redundant: among other names, Kinross Gold, Barrick Gold Corp. Newmont Mining Corp. or dAgnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Centerra Gold Inc. or Great Basin Gold. Very recently, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. and Newcrest Mining Ltd. made similar announcements. The carnage in the junior space (index down 70% from its 2011 high) triggered a wave of strategic investments by senior and intermediate producers: this is the case of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. making investments in Sulliden Gold Corp., Probe Mines Ltd*, or Atac* Resources Ltd.* and Teck Resources Ltd. financing True Gold Mining Inc*. The focus is on cost controls: Barrick Gold Corp. reduced its overhead costs by $100 million and identified $500 million of further reductions to expenditures; Osisko Mining Corp. announced a decrease of $80 million in discretionary spending; Yamana Gold Inc. targeted a costs reduction of US$150 per oz in 2013. Iamgold Corp. initiated a program to reduce annual spending by $100 million.* 8% cumulative weight in the Global Gold and Precious fund NNSEPTEMBRE 200926Gold mines vs. Physical goldHeads-up announcements are made in respect to potential closures of marginal operations should gold prices deteriorate further: this is the case of Hochschild Mining PLC.Gold mines initiated share buyback programs: this is the case of Alamos Gold Inc. (which offered to purchase for cancellation up to 10% of the public float of its outstanding common shares) or Eldorado Gold Corp. (up to 5% of the public float). The impact of a lower gold price already impacted Q1 2013 marginal operations, with Elgin Mining Inc., Aurizon Mines Ltd., Lake Shore Gold Corp., Jaguar Mining Inc. or Gabriel Resources Ltd. releasing losses for the quarter. New phenomena in the precious metal industry, the involvement of activist shareholders: this is the case of the Clinton Group, Inc. which demanded changes to the strategy, operations and management at Stillwater Mining Company, mentioning a series of strategic missteps and bad acquisitions NNSEPTEMBRE 200927Global Gold & PreciousThe Fund objective is to provide investors with quality excess return in comparison to the FTSE Gold Mines Index composite.The Fund manager is responsible for the stock selection and focuses mainly on 'large cap' stocks listed on the North-American, Australian and South African stocks exchanges and which are engaged in the prospection, the extraction or the transformation of precious metals. A. Corbani is managing the fund since Jan, 1 2009

NAV Global Gold & Precious: 236.96 / FTSE Gold Mines (EUR) value: 169.72Excess Returnvs FTSE Gold Mines since Jan 1 2009+ 17.4%Annualized Volatility vs FTSE Gold Mines index since Jan 1 200929.3 vs 30.0As of 05/29/13Key facts NSEPTEMBRE 200928Investment ProcessPortfolio ConstructionStock SelectionCORE Bucket50 80 %SATELLITE Bucket15 50 %ETF0 - 10%CORE

Stock selection within the FTSE Gold Mines Index components (or other producing mining companies within the sector)Selection criteria: Profitable undervalued companies Stock weighting is different from the IndexSATELLITE

Stock selection within the 2000 listed companies of the Gold and Precious Metal sector

Selection criteria: Under-valued producing companies, undervalued assets, companies with high probabilities of above average discoveries,To optimize the portfolio allocation between "PRODUCERS" and "EXPLORATORS"Sources of Value CreationTo identify and select high potential stocks in the Gold & Precious Metal sectorExposure to SENIOR PRODUCERS"Exposure to JUNIORS" Exposure to physical ETFs to benefit from upside and downside trendsPure Stock-Picking20 years of industry experience for the portfolio managerAbout one hundred one-to-ones per year with company managementNSEPTEMBRE 200929Investment ProcessCOREMarket InsightsNetworkSell Side ResearchConferences / SeminarsFundamental analysisOperations geography / RegulationCharacteristics of minesFinancial ratiosManagement Meeting Over 100 visits/one on one per year2 000 companiesStock pickingGlobal Gold and Precious40-50 stocksEligible universe80 / 90 companies, monitored dailyNNSEPTEMBRE 200930Portfolio SnapshotsCore Satellite breakdown (% of AuM)Index Out of the Index breakdown (% of AuM) Portfolio breakdowns (as of 05/29/13)

NNSEPTEMBRE 200931Portfolio SnapshotsBreakdown by Major Sector (% of AuM)Breakdown by Type of production (% of AuM)Breakdown by geography (% of AuM)Portfolio breakdowns (as of 05/29/13)

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Portfolio SnapshotsMarket Cap (as of 05/29/13)Median: 675 M USDNSEPTEMBRE 200933

PerformanceEvolution of the Fund NAV (net, in EUR, as of 05/29/13)Change of portfolio managerNSEPTEMBRE 200934PerformanceEvolution of the Fund NAV since Jan,1st 2009(net, in EUR, as of 05/29/13)

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PerformanceManagers Tenure Snapshot(Yearly performance, net, in EUR) Up MarketsDown MarketsProven ability to capture excess performance in Up Markets and to lower specific risk in Down MarketsNSEPTEMBRE 200936Annualized statistics (net, in EUR, as of 05/29/13)Performance

NSEPTEMBRE 200937Fund ManagementAlain Corbani - Chief Executive OfficerLead portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy & Natural ResourcesEXPERIENCE - 20 years in the Sell-Side business, notably within Dominion Securities then RBC Capital Markets, a leading Canadian Investment bank- Founding partner of Green OakAlain developed strong knowledge and expertise in North- American equity investing and in the commodities sector.BACKGROUNDMBA in Management International - George Washington University, Washington DC, USA - Bachelor of Science in Management International - IPESUP Paris France

Nicolas Paccioni Co-Portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy & Natural ResourcesEXPERIENCE - 5 years of experience in the financial industryAfter working for Cortal Bourse as a security operator, Nicolas joins Commodities AM in 2007 as a financial analyst on commodities. He is appointed portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious in 2009.BACKGROUND - Inseec ParisNSEPTEMBRE 200938Fund TermsGlobal Gold and PreciousISIN code:AMF Category:Minimum recommended holding period:Legal structure:Distribution policy:Base currency: Inception date:Initial NAV:Currency risk hedging:Performance Index:Bloomberg ticker:Others sources: Valuation frequency: Sales charge:Management fees:Performance fees:Custodian:Fund Administrator:Statutory Auditor:

FR0007047527Global Equity5 yearsFrench "FCP"CapitalisationEuro07/21/2000100 EUROptionalFTSE Gold Mines Index (en euro)GLGOLPR FPMorningstar, EuroperformanceDaily4 % (max)2 % (max)15 % of the performance above the FTSE Gold Mines IndexRBC DEXIA INVESTOR SERVICES SOCIETE GENERALE SECURITIES SERVICES DELOITTE & Associs

Asset under management as of 05/29/13: 12.1 M EURNNSEPTEMBRE 200939Take Away Global Gold & PreciousPositive gold sector fundamentals still in place to achieve superior return despite short term strategic headwinds.

We will NOT pick the bottom BUT the risk reward theme for holding gold mines lies strongly on the latter due to structural improvements at the corporate level

The fund has reached its optimum exposure to the junior sector with a 49% allocation

Active management style that benefits from the high-skilled portfolio manager ability to select stocks within the production and exploration sub-sectors

22 years of industry experience for the portfolio manager

12-year track-record, with first-class French industry awards

+2,58% of outperformance per year vs. FTSE Gold Mines Index (period: 07/21/00 05/29/13) WITH similar volatility

NSEPTEMBRE 200940ContactsNicolas PaccioniCo-Portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy and Natural ResourcesPortfolio manager of Global Euro Middle Cap Tel: +33 1 44 95 09 93Email: [email protected]

Alain CorbaniChief Executive Officer, Portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy and Natural Resources

Tel: +33 1 44 95 09 88Email: [email protected]

Commodities Asset Management11 rue de Thran75008 Paris - FranceFacsimile: 01 44 95 09 87Internet: www.commodities-am.com

Mathilde de CheffontainesHead of Administration

Tel: +33 1 44 95 09 86Email: [email protected]

NSEPTEMBRE 200941Disclaimer This presentation is strictly for information purposes only. This document does not constitute an offer or commitment, a solicitation of an offer or commitment, or any advice or recommendation, to conclude any transaction (whether on the indicative terms shown or otherwise). Before entering into any transaction, you should ensure that you fully understand the potential risks and rewards of that transaction and that you independently determine that the transaction is appropriate for you given your objectives, experience, financial and operational resources and other relevant circumstances.

The prospectus of the Fund is available upon request or at www.commodities-am.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. NSEPTEMBRE 200942