GLOBAL Friday 08th May 2015ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITIES ASSESSMENT

Risk Map: Global Weather Events –Significant Impact 7 Day Outlook (Issued 07 May 15)

HEADLINES• E Africa – Risk of more severe flooding across coastal East Africa with impacts on TANGHAM JOA.• Solomon Islands /Vanuatu – Continued heavy rainfall affecting continued humanitarian efforts.• Nepal – Increased TS risk across N Nepal over next 5 days with associated impact on Rotary Ops.• Philippines – Tropical Cyclone NOUL forecast to reach Luzon late Saturday as a CAT3 to 4 TC.

Risk Map of Global Weather Events with Significant Impact and Satellite Image (070900 Z May 15)

IMPACT

HIGH

LOW

Balkans – Sev thunderstorm activity until Sunday

Philippines - Tropical Cyclone NOUL making landfall as CAT 3 or 4

over weekend

SE China: Continued flood risk

C USA - Continued Severe thunderstorms activity over weekend with more flash

flooding and tornadic activity

Nepal – TS activity continuing to impact OP

LAYLAND

E Africa - Heavy seasonal rainfall is

expected with risk of flash flooding in TANGHAM JOA.

SE USA – NHC suggesting 70% chance of TC formation in next

48 hoursEquatorial S America – SA Convergence Zone moving

N bringing frequent thunderstorm activity with flooding and landslide risk

Vanuatu - Increased TS activity bringing flood risk.

Paraguay / Bolivia / Brazil - Further thunderstorm activity with associated Increased flood risk.

Coastal Kenya /Tanzania - Heavy ‘long rains’ seasonal rainfall over

next 6 days may bring sev flooding to coastal cities: Mombassa / Dar

es Salaam

TROPICAL CYCLONES - RED

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WN Pacific

Current• Typhoon NOUL• West N Pacific. Developed on

03/05/15. Continuing to strengthen.

• Currently CAT2 forecast wit potential to intensify to CAT 4 by landfall over N Luzon later on Saturday 09th into Sunday.

• Forecast maximum sustained wind speed 212 km/h (Haiyan was 230 km/h).

• Maximum significant wave height is 30 FT (as of 070600Z).

• Population affected by winds over 120 km/h: 3.6 million

• Vulnerability of population: Medium

• Risk of Impact – HIGH

TYPHOON NOUL: c.735 NM E-SE of Manila. Tracking WNW at 12 KT.

Track issued by the JMA. Imagery from NOAA.

General model consensus that it will make landfall over N Luzon but timings still difficult, with landfall between Sat afternoon and Sun morning

Most Likely CoA: The system will continue to curve NE as the above track shows and bring CAT 3 strength damaging winds, storm surge and rainfall to N Luzon from 1500Z on 09 May 2015. This will bring with it regional flooding and landslide risk, as well as infrastructure damage.

Most Dangerous CoA (20%): The storm track will straighten and hit central Luzon as a CAT 4 TC bringing into risk the heavily populated Capital Manila.

TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMATION

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Current Activity• Tropical Storm 07W (Micronesia).

Currently a tropical storm whilst passing Micronesia, forecast to strengthen to a Cat 2 Typhoon (Maritime Only). Currently limited impact.

• Disturbance 1 (W ATL). A non tropical low pressure system off coast of Carolina with NHP giving 70% change of TC formation in next 48 hours.

Formation Risk• 2 Cyclones developing in the WNP,

no areas of risk highlighted in the IO.• Potential of TC development off coast

of Carolina in next 48 hours.

Atlantic Seasonal F/C• Colorado State University extended

range forecast for the 2015 Atlantic Season predicting below-average probability for major hurricanes affecting the USA and Caribbean.

• Their forecast is for only 1 major hurricane (CAT 3 or above), 3 hurricanes and 7 named storms during this season.

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook produced by the Climate Prediction

Centre, NOAA

Satellite from NHC showing location of Disturbance 1

with 70% risk of TC formation in next 48 hours.

FORECAST

Friday and Saturday:• Continued risk of Thunderstorm activity mainly across

N Nepal (snow above 4400 M) persisting into the eve• Becoming dry overnight with risk of mist and valley

fog by morning

Saturday to Monday• Further Thunderstorm activity, mainly by day

decaying into the evening with risk of hail flood and strong downdrafts.

• Snow level between 4200-4400 M with associated increased avalanche risk.

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IMPACT

• MILITARY OPERATIONS• Overnight mist/low cloud will hamper rotary

assets.• Showers/thunderstorms and associated hail,

strong winds and low cloud will impact on rotary assets and require wx avoidance.

• ISR• Largely clear skies outside of TS should give

good ISR collect conditions. Poor in TS

• HADR GROUND OPERATIONS• Areas affected by showers/thunderstorms may

be prone to landslides/avalanches further disrupting ground ops.

OP LAYLAND

Colour Enhanced IR SAT IMAGE 0900 UTC 07 MAY 2015. Shows large storms over Nepal (N of Kathmandu) but largely clear over N India.

24 hour rainfall accumulations for Friday and Saturday at 0000 UTC. Shows continued risk of large rainfall totals over the weekend

Nepal

Seasonal – A forecast of a weak El Nino year suggests a weaker than normal Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) year. Seasonal drivers point to a climatological or slightly late arrival of the rains into Nepal (10th June)

GLOBALFLOODING EVENTS

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Recent Major Flooding Events

• Indonesia – West Nusa Tenggara – over 1000 families have been displaced due to river flooding. Central Java – around 3000 people moved from homes temporarily to avoid floods.

• Australia – 1st -2ndMay: Five people have died in Queensland, Australia from flooding. Some areas of Queensland saw over 150-200 mm of rain fall in 30 hours. Brisbane saw over 180mm of rainfall, with a place north of Brisbane getting over 300mm in 24 hours.

• USA – Manhattan (Kansas) and Lubbock (Texas) both suffered flash floods after record levels of rainfall fell between 4th & 5th May. In addition to this, Obama has declared parts of Kentucky a disaster area following floods and winter storms during April.

• Kenya – to 2nd May, flash flooding caused 13 deaths and displaced 3000 people.

• Cuba – A storm gave over 190mm of rainfall on Havana during 30th April leaving 2 dead and causing several building to collapse.

• Nepal – Researchers from the Uni of Michigan say that the risk of land and mud slides remain high post earthquake. This risk if likely to increase when the monsoon rains arrive in approximately a month.

Flood Potential Maps produced by the Tropical Rainfall

Measuring Mission (TRMM)

Cuba hit by second severe flood in a week – Picture of Barcia

The landslide risk remains high in

Nepal as thunderstorm activity brings significant rain

to affected valleys

GLOBALDROUGHTS / FOOD RISK

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Current Env Driven ImpactsWest Africa: Mauritania and Senegal: Below average 2014/2015 crop production and poor pastoral conditions are contributing to reduced food access for poor households in parts of south-central Mauritania and in northern and central Senegal. Approximately 1.25 million people are expected to face crisis or higher food insecurity between May and September 2015. Forecasts predict a poor June –September rainy season which, if correct, will worsen food security.

NE Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon: Boko Haram violence has spread with conflict preventing households from pursuing typical livelihoods. Increasing population displacements continue to put stress on host communities. Without assistance and estimated 3.5 – 4 million will face significant difficulty accessing food through to at least September 2015. Crisis and Emergency outcomes, including increased levels of acute malnutrition, are expected over the coming six months.

East Africa: Recent heavy rain/flooding across Tanzanian and Kenya along with forecast heavy rain across East Africa is likely to lead to food shortages and increase stress. Malnutrition levels are expected to worsen after May and are already above critical thresholds in part of N Kenya, S & E Ethiopia, rural Djibouti and south-central Somalia. Estimated 8.99 million displaced people in the region.

Yemen: Thousands of people fled after recent air strikes and fighting reported in Aden with humanitarian needs exacerbated by abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

Source FEWS Net – Famine Early Warning Systems NetworkPlease refer to http://www.fews.net for further information

Headlines:• West Africa – Below average crop levels and poor pastorial conditions are contributing to reduced food access in parts of south-central Mauritania and northern and central Senegal. • NE Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon –Boko Haram violence could lead to 4 million facing food shortages in regions bordering lake Chad. Recent dry conditions have exacerbated the food risk.• South/East Africa – Heavy rains have led to the total loss of production and significant food gaps across Malawi and Mozambique and the rains have spread to Tanzania and Kenya.• Yemen – Political crisis leading to increased food insecurity enhanced by abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

GLOBALVOLCANIC/EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITYIndia (Barren Island, Andaman Islands): a pilot observed ash plume that rose to an altitude of 3km. Russia (Kuril Islands): Chirinkotan, Zhupanovsky and Chirpoi activity continue with AVN code Yellow(Kamchatka): Activity at Chikurachki, Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi Ksudach and Karymsky volcanoes remains elevated. AVN codes Orange.

USA: (Aleutians) Elevated seismic activity at Semisopochnoi . AVN code Yellow. Shishaldin remains Orange.

Mexico: Activity from Colima continues to decline. No AVN code issued.

Guatemala: Santa Maria has been producing occasional small bursts of gases and light ash (moving W around FL110)

Chile: Calbuco volcano, eruption started on 22 April 2015. It has since declined and most ash has fallen out over Chile and Argentina. The AVN code from the BA VAAC however remains: Red. The Villarrica volcano, activity continues with small Strombolian explosions with a cordon of 5km in place. AVN code: Orange.

Ecuador: Intense activity at Reventador volcano has produced frequent explosions and small pyroclastic flows. On 28 April an emmission of minor ash rose to 3km from Tungurahua volcano.

Indonesia: Eruption at Dukono Volcano remains ongoing. AVN code Orange. Pyroclastic flow descended the southern flank of Sinabung volcano on 28 April. No AVN Code.

Japan: Mild to moderate strombolian explosions have been reported from the Nakadake crater of Aso. Continued although declining activity also reported at Sakurajima volcano. Several ash plumes have been reported from Suwanose-jima volcano. No AVN code.

Hawaii: Kilauea continues to be active with the summit lava lake occasionally rising.

Current Volcanic Activity – Eruptions Underway

M5 and above Earthquakes in past 48 hours

GLOBAL

WIND SPEED POPULATION VUNERABILITY ALERT LEVEL

TROPICAL STORM (38-73 mph) < 10M Low / Med / High GREEN

TROPICAL STORM (38-73 mph) < 10M High AMBER

Category 1-2 TC (74-110 mph) > 100K or >10% Med / High AMBER

Category 1-2 TC (74-110 mph) > 1M High RED

Category 3 TC (>110 mph) > 100K or >10% Med / High RED

Category 3 TC (>110 mph) > 1M Low AMBER

Category 4 TC (>131 mph) > 1M Low RED

IMPACT CRITERIA - TC

TC Vulnerability Index specified by the UN / EC Global Disaster Alert and Co-ordination System (GDACS) based on combined indicators as set out on their website:

http://portal.gdacs.org/Models

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