1. Global FPSO market dynamics 2010 -2014Julian Callanan Infield Systems Ltd This presentation is available in electronic formatInfield Systems Ltd 2009 This document may be circulated internally within the recipients company but may not be distributed, circulated or passed on externally without express permission. Infield maintain fullcopyright on this document and any formal usage, reproduction or direct reference must be accompanied by express permission in writing from Infield Systems Ltd.

2. Contents Infield Systems LtdGlobal Macro Overview Economic crisis; Impact on FPSO Industry Oil price volatility decision making uncertainty / field viability Funding issues Prospects for Recovery FPSO market Forecasts (Demand) Leased vs. Owned Conversion vs. New Build vs. Redeployment FPSO availability (Supply) Fleet availability in different scenarios FPSO market key concerns2 3. InfieldSpecialist provider of energy data, analysis, information & due diligence globally Macro, offshore, onshore, fields, platforms, pipelines, subsea, drilling, deepwater, rigs & vessels , yards, plants, companies etc..Some of our clients:Peer-reviewed, bottom-up methodology with 22 years experience 3 4. Global Recession The days of boom and bust now over- Gordon Brown, UK PM, 2007 Uninterrupted economic growth for a decade driven by a bubble of credit Financial institutions failed to correctly gauge exposure to poor debtor classes4 5. A Truly Global recession headline statisticsThe USEuropeUS unemployment at a 26yr high, 9.7% of In Britain, unemployment at 1995 levels,the workforce out of a job.7.8% of the workforce out of a job. 6.9 million jobless since 2007 downturn. 9.1% unemployment in France. US Congress; worst since the depression 8.3% unemployment in Germanyof the 1930s.Asia In China, in 2008, between 70,000 and 80,000 companies went out of business. Overall 2008 was the first year when global GDP decreased since 1946. Domestic and Industrial energy consumption forecasts downgraded. Downwards shift in market fundamentals.5 6. Oil Price Volatility undermining contract awardsDeparture from price fundamentalsRising market average140120 Volatility:100 Undermines a stablebusiness environment$/bbl 80 60 40 20 Measure of volatility like a 01980 19851990 1995 20002005springboardOil Price CollapseGulf WarOngoing Crisis.16Measure of Volatility.12.08.04.001980 19851990 1995 2000200520096 7. Oil price swings and project viabilityType of Field Development $/boe range Fall back to $40bbl threatenedLarge deepwater fixed or floating23 - 55Large shallow water fixed or floating20 - 40project viabilitySmall Subea tie-back 35 - 65Small Subsea stand alone 27 - 55Mid - sized tie back 32 - 50 Uncertainty over future revenueMid - sized stand alone32 - 50generation undermines fundingOil sands 80+ 140 120Economic Price US $ per bbls2008 av. $99bbl 1002007 av. $71bbl 80Q3:2009 $70bbl 60 Q2:2009 $56bbl 40Q1:2009 $40bbl 200 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Available Oil (billion bbls)7 8. Funding Constraints160Bumi Armada awardedPrice $/bblModec awarded Jubilee Hoang Long140Nortechs awarded Bilabri120HHI awarded Usan100 Modec awarded PyreneesFPSOcean bankruptUS$ bbl 80 Ithaca cancel Uisge Gormcontract with Bluewater 60 SBM awarded Aseng contract 40 Nexus abandons talks with Vanguard Oil and Gas 20 Roc abandon talks with BWPetrobras awards Papa Terra offshore for BMG floatercontract. Then cancel to cutcosts0 1/10/07 1/11/07 1/12/071/10/081/11/081/12/081/1/07 1/2/071/3/07 1/4/071/5/07 1/6/071/7/07 1/8/071/9/07 1/1/081/2/08 1/3/081/4/08 1/5/081/6/08 1/7/081/8/08 1/9/081/1/091/2/09 1/3/091/4/09 1/5/091/6/09 1/7/091/8/09 1/9/09 No new contract awards8 9. Positive Sentiment Oil Price consistency Performance ofdeveloping countries Falling volatility:36% In Oct 2008 17% in May 16% in June160 6 12% in July140Oil ($bbl) 5 9% in AugustLibor (%) Libor Interest Rate (%) 120 ?% in September4Oil Price ($bbl) 10080 360 2 Return of funding 40 1 Bumi Armada loan 20 Relatively high oil prices and low interest rates suggests good future investment potential oversubscribed0 0 9 10. Contents Infield Systems LtdGlobal Macro Overview Economic crisis; Impact on FPSO Industry Oil price volatility decision making uncertainty / field viability Funding issues Prospects for Recovery FPSO market Forecasts (Demand) Leased vs. Owned Conversion vs. New Build vs. Redeployment FPSO availability (Supply) Fleet availability in different scenarios FPSO market key concerns10 11. The FPSO in context of the wider offshore industryFPSO market Capex expected to increase relative to other platform markets driven by: Maturing of shallow water regions Promotes deepwater growth Encourages leased assets Nationalisation of shallow water reserves Majors & large Indies have valuable deepwater experience Key prospective areas now W. Africa, Brazil, GoM Lower Tertiary, W.Australia Far away from exportation FPSO marketinfrastructure 7% CAGR 11 12. Plenty of opportunities to play for FPSO installations by contract status. Eni, Kitan Timor Fast-track project suitable for a redeployment Blade ,Cadlao - Philippines First oil targeted for mid-2011 Afren, Ebok - Nigeria 25 Non-contracted Total, CLOV Angola 20Contracted New build, Owned vessel Delayed to 2014FPSO Installations 15 10 Petrobras, Tupi Brazil MV22 Pilot FPSO already on field 5 Full production expected 2014 02005 2006 20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 12 13. Diverse Regional DemandFPSO installations by regionFPSO fabrication tonnage regional dependency 2004 - 2008Percentage of tonnage fabricatedUnknownNorth AmericaMiddle East & CaspianLatin AmericaEurope Asia 100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% Africa Asia Australasia EuropeLatin NorthAmerica America Country of InstallationNorth America 1% Note growth in Asia Africa Key energy demand here relative30%Latin America 28% to other regions Asia still limited exportationEurope8% infrastructureAsiaAustralasia14%19% Collection of local FPSO expertise makes cost effective option2005 - 2009 2010 - 2014 13 14. Change in operator type demandHistoric market 2010 - 2014Large Independent Leased 12%Operator Large 3%Small IndependentLeasedIndependent 18% Operator25%2%Small IndependentMajor 41%14%Major24%NOC NOC31% 30% Significant growth in demand fromsmall independent operators Impacts the future characteristics ofFPSO demand 14 15. Diverse FPSO types increasingly in demand Note diversification of FPSO design type 30 PilotFLNGEWTEPSProduction 25FPSO Installations 20 15 10 5 02005 20062007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 New design, fabrication and leasing opportunities may be created through this additional unorthodox demand. SBMs Versatile Reservoir Unit 15 16. Deployment Type Significant and growing trend towards conversions. These can also be redeployment opportunitiesHistoric market 2010 - 2014RedeploymentRedeploymentGrowth in future14%Only confirmed redeployments included10% redeploymentmarket? ?% future redeployment New Build 19%New Build Conversion29%57% Conversion71% Driven by: Growing demand from independent operators Less major discoveries 16 17. Contract Type Leased vs. Owned asset dynamics 25Owned Leased Undertaken statistical analysis of historic 20 FPSO contracts to forecast future split between leased and owned.FPSO Installations 15 10 Key considerations include: Operator type 5 Size of Reserves Length of time on a field 0 Production requirements2005 2006 20072008 200920102011 2012 2013 2014 Topside configuration Historic operator contractual preferences Historic market split fairly even, however consolidation around leased solutions expected 17 18. Contract TypeThis forecasting methodology does reveal some areas where it will be a close callbetween leasing and owning an asset. 25 Owned Owned, PossibleLeased, Possible Leased 20FPSO Installations 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 These marginal projects will be important in shaping which companies are successful over the next five years.18 19. Contents Infield Systems LtdGlobal Macro Overview Economic crisis; Impact on FPSO Industry Oil price volatility decision making uncertainty / field viability Funding issues Prospects for Recovery FPSO market Forecasts (Demand) Leased vs. Owned Conversion vs. New Build vs. Redeployment FPSO availability (Supply) Fleet availability in different scenarios FPSO market key concerns19 20. Areas of risk - Operators Choose your clients carefully 25 Assess risk: High MediumLow 20Operator type / cash positionFPSO Installations 15 Field Participants Geo-political risk 10 Projects placement within operators 5portfolio 02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Understand your business offering: Marrying up of market leaders (yards /leased FPSO companies) with Majors. 20 21. Areas of risk - Supply Available Supply 2009 ~12 vessels Including Leased Vessels recently ending Available vessels built on speculation:contracts: Aker Smart 2 Glas Dowr Bluewater Nexus 1 Munin FPSO Bluewater Uisge Gorm - Bluewater More availability in the pipeline Knock Davie ProsafeUnder Conversion / Construction Rang Dong SBM East Fortune Songa Aker Smart 3 Aker Deep Producer 1 Ex. Owned Vessels becoming available: FPSOcean Bohai Ming Zhu 3 year window 21 22. Areas of risk - Supply5040302010 02009 2010201120122013 2014HighMediumBase Even in our base case scenario, supply is set to increase substantially over coming years. We assume available assets would leave the market after 3 years inertia. This level of supply is without historical precedent. Posses critical business orientation issues. day rates redeployment opportunities puddle-hopping / development of marginal fields / alternative FPSOprojects? new build and conversion demand, however growth of modifications market M & A activity, as market consolidates 22 23. Areas of risk - Supply60Non-contracted DemandBase case with exits50 Number of FPSOs403020100 200920102011 201220132014 Potentially very significant supply - demand imbalance Some caveats to this: Regional traps legislation, climate Configuration limitations production, storage, water handling, topside configuration Age of assets especially age of converted hullsNot every asset can be redeployed however indication of tough times to come? 23 24. Conclusion After a difficult year, both the short-term and long-term market fundamentals arestarting to align positively for the FPSO market. We see plenty of future un-contracted FPSO opportunities in the pipeline. Early indications are that the characteristics of future FPSO demand are going to bechanging The regional focus, and type of operator contracting FPSOs also looks set to evolve This will create new opportunities. However, the issue of FPSO supply remains as a future cloud on the horizon 24 25. Thank YouAll Graphs, charts and data taken from Infield Julian CallananSystems FPSO and FLNG market report 2010 T: +44 20 7423 50292014. Please contact:E: julian.callanan@infield.com25