Global Fluff Pulp Outlook - Forest Products Industry …...Global Fluff Pulp Outlook Market...

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© Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information Ben Sirois Associate Economist, Pulp & Recovered Paper San Diego, USA October 2016 Global Fluff Pulp Outlook

Transcript of Global Fluff Pulp Outlook - Forest Products Industry …...Global Fluff Pulp Outlook Market...

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Ben SiroisAssociate Economist, Pulp & Recovered Paper

San Diego, USAOctober 2016

Global Fluff Pulp Outlook

Market BackgroundFluff Pulp Overview

• What is fluff pulp? Wood pulp produced mainly from softwood fiber Used in the absorbent core of hygiene products E.g., baby diapers and feminine care products

Primarily produced in the US South• Accounts for a little less than 10% of total world market wood pulp supply

• Demand growth driven by emerging markets• Low market penetration rates• Favorable demographic and economic factors

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End Uses for Fluff PulpDisposable Absorbent Hygiene Products

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Fluff Pulp Demand by End UsePercent of Total, 2015 Estimate

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Disposable Diapers

38%

Adult Incontinence

26%

Feminine Hygiene

24%

Airlaid/Other12%

Demand Overview

• World demand growth continues to be moderate 2015 global consumption estimated at 5.8 million tonnes Forecast to grow 3.7% annually in 2016‐2020 Mild slowdown in demand growth in 2016‐2017 due to weak global economic conditions

• Emerging markets will dominate demand growth Disposable absorbent hygiene product use grows with income

93% of total demand growth to come from emerging markets in 2015‐2020

• Mature markets will see little consumption growth

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Mature Market Demand Growth Relatively Flat

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* USA, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Oceania 

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Eastern EuropeAfrica/Middle EastOther AsiaLatin AmericaChinaMature Markets*

Changing Landscape for DemandShare of Fluff Pulp Demand by Region

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2002 2015

Africa/Middle East8%

North America

18%

Western Europe

19%China16%

Latin America

15%

Japan5%

Other Asia11%

Eastern Europe

6%

Oceania2%

Africa/Middle East5%

North America

26%

Western Europe

29%

China6%

Latin America

10%

Japan7%

Other Asia9%

Eastern Europe

6%

Oceania2%

Demographics and Income Drive Demand• Potential Absorbent Hygiene Product Users (PAHU) fall into three major categories Children age 0‐2.5 (potential diaper consumer) Women age 15‐49 (potential feminine care consumer) Adults age 65 and older (potential AI product consumer)

• Per capita income drives fluff consumption per PAHU As income levels rise, more can be spent on convenience goods such as disposable absorbent hygiene products

As an economy reaches high levels of income, fluff pulp consumption per user levels off

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Global Fluff Demand Curve2000‐2015 Real Income per Capita vs Kilograms of Fluff Consumed per Potential Absorbent Hygiene User*

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*Potential absorbent hygiene users (PAHU) include the population 0‐2.5 years old, females 15‐49 and 65+ years old. 

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Income Levels on the Rise in Emerging MarketsGDP per Capita, 2005 US Dollars at Purchasing Power Parity

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BrazilEastern EuropeChinaAsia ex Japan, China, IndiaIndia

Large Consumer Base in Emerging Markets2015 Estimate, Millions

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0-2.5 Years Old

Females 15-49 Years Old

65+ Years Old

China 46.8 363.0 41.5India 62.2 336.7 73.6Other Asia (excl. India) 64.0 354.2 78.9Brazil 7.3 56.7 16.3Other Latin America 19.1 113.0 32.0Africa 100.7 284.3 41.5Eastern Europe 12.1 99.0 54.3Middle East 10.6 42.6 6.9Total 332.8 1,736.7 345.0

Supply• Total fluff pulp capacity in 2015 estimated at just under 6.3 million tonnes

• Concentrated industry Top five producers by capacity in 2015 are Georgia‐Pacific (G‐P), 

Weyerhaeuser, International Paper (IP), Domtar and Resolute Forest Products

These five producers account for over 80% of the market• Currently large increases in capacity Riegelwood, Ashdown, Ortiguiera and Suzano collectively adding 

over 1 million tonnes of capacity in one year• Hardwood fluff may prove to be disruptive BEK production costs are significantly lower than SBSK If product performance proves good, this could put pressure on 

traditional producers in the future

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IP/Weyco Deal Increases ConsolidationMarket Share of Top Five Producers by Capacity

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2016 Pre‐Acquisition 2016 Post‐Acquisition

Georgia-Pacific

31%

Weyerhaeuser22%

International Paper17%

Domtar8%

Resolute Forest

Products4%

All Other18% Georgia-

Pacific31%

International Paper39%

Domtar8%

Resolute Forest

Products4%

All Other14%

Stora Enso4%

New Pulp Capacity

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Company (Mill) Location Country Market Capacity

Date Grade

Suzano Suzano Brazil 100 2015 4Q Fluff/BHK

Klabin Paraná Brazil 400 2016 Q2 Fluff/BSK

International Paper Riegelwood United States 360 2016 Q2 Fluff/BSK

Domtar Ashdown United States 515 2016 Q3 Fluff/BSK

Stora Enso Skutskär Sweden 160 2018 Q2 Fluff/BSK

Fluff Pulp Capacity Projects, 2015‐2018Thousand Tonnes

US South Still Dominating SupplyFluff Pulp Capacity by Major Region

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Fluff Pulp Price• Strong relationship between paper grade and fluff Large portion of fluff producers can swing between paper grade and fluff

Swing to fluff pulp as relative profitability of the grade rises in relation to paper grade

• Prices peaked in 2014‐2015 Q1 2015 prices reached $1,050/tonne Have declined to current price of $1,010/tonne as operating rates dropped from 94% to 92%

• New supply putting downward pressure on prices

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Strong Relationship with Slight LagFluff Pulp and Southern Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp List Price

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050100150200250300350400450500550600

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,200

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Delivered

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FLF‐SBSK (R)Fluff PriceSBSK Price

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Prices Are More StablePercentage Change in Paper Grade Pulp Prices and Fluff Pulp Prices

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-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

% Change, SBSK% Change, Fluff

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Outlook for the World Fluff Pulp Market: Special Market Analysis Studywww.risi.com/fluffpulp16

Thank you for your attention!For more information:

World Pulp & Recovered Paper Forecastwww.risi.com/WPRP5

World Pulp Monthlywww.risi.com/WPM