Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc
Transcript of Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc
Strictly Confidential
Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc.
• A growing mining group
• The Surigao mine
• The Palawan mine
• Financial Highlights
• Top Management Team
• Growth Roadmap
• The nickel story and the Philippines Advantage
• Nickel Price Outlook
• 2016 Earnings Forecast
• Investment Thesis
• Earnings Sensitivity to Price Vs Volume
Presentation Outline
A growing mining group in the Philippines…
2
Well positioned to benefit from the Indonesia ban and
geographically close proximity to China
Surigao mine is overall ranked first among the
Philippines nickel mines for production value and
second largest for production volume in 2014
Surigao mine with substantial reserve with total
indicated and inferred resources of 72.7 MN DMT
(108 MN WMT), since 2007 to 2014 only 8% of the
overall 4,376 hectares has been mined
flexible ore supply and close proximity of shipping
point
Strong growth potential with the acquisition of one of
the best nickel mine deposits in the Philippines
located in the island of Palawan (HG 50%, MG 30%
MG, LG 20%), indicated & inferred resources 66.5
MN DMT (102 MN WMT)
The company is ran by dedicated professionals with
strong and extensive experience in the industry.
100% 99.9%
1
0
0
%
100% 94%
Largest Nickel producers in value and 2nd largest in volume…
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Philippine Nickel Production from MGBDirect Shipping Ore in DMT
Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value
Taganito Mining Corp. Claver Nickel Project 4,632,599 4,595,821,727 4,652,566 7,843,342,054 (0) (41)
Platinum Group Metals Corporation Cagdianao Nickel Project 3,484,800 4,994,633,609 3,417,891 9,936,774,095 2 (50)
Cagdianao Mining Corp. Cagdianao Nickel Project 2,638,179 2,348,634,317 253,922 235,311,260 939 898
Carrascal Nickel Corp Carrascal Nickel Project 2,148,986 1,572,516,060 2,738,710 4,716,011,410 (22) (67)
SR Metals, Inc Tubay Nickel-Cobalt Project 1,939,239 2,375,200,923 1,652,850 3,390,632,239 17 (30)
CTP Construction & Mining Corp Adlay Nickel Project 1,813,394 2,466,928,079 2,285,941 5,866,336,401 (21) (58)
Hinatuan Mining Corp. Tagana-an Nickel Project 1,809,765 1,876,993,451 1,861,871 4,239,952,233 (3) (56)
Rio Tuba Nickel Mining Rio Tuba Nickel Project 1,733,833 3,285,650,000 1,422,528 3,781,671,000 22 (13)
Marcventures Mining & Development Corp. Cantilan Nickel Project 1,603,230 995,652,653 741,608 1,294,291,743 116 (23)
Citinickel Mines & Development Corporation Toronto & Pulot Nickel Projects 921,885 1,389,110,964 1,945,295 3,086,110,756 (53) (55)
Agata Mining Ventures, Inc. Agata North Lateritic Nickel Project 875,670 1,459,454,506 - - - -
Wellex Mining Corporation Wellex Area II Nickel Mining Project 738,596 338,075,758 - - - -
Berong Mining Corp Berong Nickel 720,008 1,714,358,420 677,300 1,116,932,183 6 53
Adnama Mining Resources Incorporated Urbiztondo Nickel Project 547,782 636,436,863 408,468 783,248,000 34 (19)
Oriental Vision Mining Phils. Corporation Palhi Nickel Project 442,700 484,545,758 - - - -
Eramen Minerals Inc. Eramen Sta Cruz Mining Project 398,269 565,941,364 799,060 993,927,964 (50) (43)
Westernshore Nickel Corporation Libjo Project ( Phase 2) 288,889 232,966,535 - - - -
AAM-PHIL Natural Resources Exploration Dinagat Chromite/Nickel Project 261,135 164,521,373 531,492 411,374,536 (51) (60)
Libjo Mining Corporation Libjo Lateritic Nickel Project 175,699 206,670,080 561,050 484,157,936 (69) (57)
LNI Archipelago Minerals Inc. LNL AM Sta Cruz Mining Project 157,623 281,414,368 326,227 688,442,771 (52) (59)
Oriental Synergy Mining Corporation Bel-at Nickel Project 82,579 128,658,394 245,621 200,943,420 (66) (36)
CTP Construction & Mining Corp Dahican Nickel Project 16,626 20,385,137 371,372 618,475,281 (96) (97)
Zambales Diversified Metals Corporation ZDMC Sta. Cruz-Candelaria Mining Project - - 219,972 439,916,346 (100) (100)
Benguet Corporation Nickel Mines Inc. BCNMI Sta. Cruz Nickel Mining Project - - 839,230 1,450,239,115 (100) (100)
Sinosteel Philippines H.Y. Mining Corp. H.Y. Nickel Chromite Project - - - - - -
Grand Total Direct Shipping Ore 27,431,486 32,134,570,339 25,952,974 51,578,090,743 6 (38)
JAN-SEP 2015 JAN-SEP 2014 % ChangeName of Producer Project Name
Brief introduction to FNI - Surigao
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Formed through the injection of Platinum Group Metals
Corporation ("PGMC") into PSE-listed Southeast Asia
Cement Holdings Inc., which was renamed Global
Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. ("FNI")
FNI's current main asset is the Cagdianao mine
("CAGA") in Surigao del Norte province, North-East
Mindanao, which has been producing since 2007
– In calendar year 2015 CAGA shipped 5.4 million wet
metric tonnes ("WMT") from just two mine areas,
CAGA 2 and CAGA 4 out of the total explored five
CAGAs
– JORC indicated & inferred resources of 72.7 million
DMT (108.2 WMT)
– Further development upside from current explored 5
mining areas by further drilling, and the potential
reserve coming from unexplored area of CAGA 6 & 7
– Total drilled area of 893.23 hectares out of MPSA area
of 4,376 hectares, equivalent to 20% of the total
explored tenement
Mindanao
Visayas
INC Mine
Cagdianao Mine
Total mining area:
7,211ha
Mine production vs. shipment history (in ‘000 WMT )
Source: Company information
Brief introduction to FNI - Palawan
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FNI acquired another asset through the acquisition of
Southeast Palawan Nickel Ventures Inc. which holds more
than 90% of Ipilan Nickel Corporation, the Ipilan mine in
Palawan is described as follows:
– The area of the tenement covers an area of 2,835
hectares located in Barangays Ipilan, Mambalot, Masin,
and Calasaguen, Brookes’ Point
– JORC indicated & inferred resources of 66.5 million DMT
(102.3 WMT)
– High quality mine with up to 80% of ores consist of high to
medium grade
– Significant additional acreage and resources with
expected contribution to overall production within one
year. Potential of adding another 3-4 millions of WMT to
FNI overall production volume after two to three years
– 630 hectares out of 2,835 hectares has been explored or
22% of the tenement.
– Weather pattern is opposite from Surigao and the addition
of INC will address the seasonality constraint currently
facing FNI. FNI will be able to have all year round
shipment
Source: Company information
Location Map of MPSA Area relative to the
Philippines Location Map of MPSA Area relative to Palawan
Before Palawan After W/ Palawan
JORC Resource 108.2M WMT JORC Resource 210.5M WMT
Reserves 37.3M WMT Reserves 66.0M WMT
Production Limit 7.0 M WMT/Y Production Limit 8.5M WMT/Y
Repercussion of INC to FNI
• Higher quality of ore (1.93%Ni for high grade) means higher revenues per wet metric ton shipped out.
• Current prices of 1.9%Ni are higher by $6/WMT as compared to 1.8%Ni current price of $35/WMT.
• INC has only 2 product lines HG and MG at 62.5%:37.5% ratio thus higher weighted average price.
• At current prices Surigao’s product mix will average $22/WMT and INC $34.625 or 57% higher.
• Surigao will have around $7/WMT margin and INC will have around $17/WMT margin.
• At proposed maximum production of 3.0 million WMT INC can contribute up to $51 million at todays prices.
• Its like having two mines earning similarly. Net effect its doubling of earnings.
• First quarter and fourth quarter periods will now have earnings as seasonality issues have been addressed.
Financial highlights
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Financial highlights
6,533,218
1,744,426
1,111,750
9,047,476
4,949,749
4,817,047
5,667,768
2,158,254
1,670,329
Revenue
EBITDA
NPAT
GFNI Historical Financials ('000 Php)
30-Jun-14 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15
( 12months ) ( 6months ) ( 12months )
6,533,218
1,858,542
1,369,149
11,979,678
6,017,735
5,696,490
3,759,984
1,067,021
649,186
5,844,204
2144923
1,822,771
Revenue
EBITDA
NPAT
PGMC Historical Financials ('000 Php)
31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15
Mary Belle D.
Bituin
Chief Finance
Officer and Director
Executive Officers, Chairman and Independent Directors of FNI
Experienced management team
Atty. Noel B. Lazaro
Corporate Secretary,
Compliance Officer and
Corporate Information Officer
Joined PGMC on August 1, 2014 and became a
director of PGMC on August 1, 2014
A director and the Corporate Secretary of Southeast
Palawan Nickel Ventures, Inc. and Ipilan Nickel
Corporation.
An attorney of law in the Philippines
Director of PGMC and Chief Finance
Officer and Director of the Company
since October 22, 2014
Vice president for Business
Transformation of Globe Telecom, Inc.
where she has worked since 1998
Joseph C. SY
Chairman and Director
The chairman of FNI and PGMC since Aug.6, 2015,
respectively
Director and President of INC
Director of Mining for the Philippine Chamber of
Commerce and Industry
More than 15 years of experience in managing
companies engaged in mining and mineral exploration
and development
Atty. Dante R. Bravo
President and Director
President and Director of FNI and PGMC since Aug.6,
2015
Chief Finance Officer of PGMC from 2011 to 2013
Also an attorney at law and a certified public
accountant in the Philippines
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Carlo A. Matilac
Senior Vice
President
Technical Mines
Over 19 years of experience in the
mining industry, including mineral
evaluation, planning and design,
mine development and production
Work experiences include working
with BHP Billiton-SIRC, QNI
Philippines Inc., Manila Mining Corp
and Verum Terra Geosciences Inc.
Oversees the mine operations of the
company in Surigao
Has extensive work experience in
the mining industry including among
others as Mine Planning Engineer,
Site Engineer and Safety Engineer
in MRL Gold Philippines, Inc.,
FRASEC Ventures Corporation and
Manila Mining Corporation
Corsino L.
Odtojan
Vice
President—
Operations
Ramon E.
Adviento
Senior Vice
President –
Investor Relations
Over 18 years in mining industry from
mine planning/design, mining operation,
rehabilitation, consultancy for copper,
gold, nickel, chromite, coal
14 years in investment banking industry
as analyst/investment banker. Voted
by the Fund Management Association
of the Philippines as the best mining
analyst for 4 years from 2012 till 2015.
Future growth roadmap
Other value-added
opportunities:
Evaluate other suitable options
for organic and/or acquisition-
led growth
Focus on value-added
opportunities such as vertical
integration
Improve sales quality/quantity:
To increase the production of
mid-high grade ores.
To prepare our self for the
nickel shortage for 2016-22
Acquisition of INC:
Completion of acquisition
2015
Accelerated development
towards production phase
by mid-2016.
Start shipment 2H2016
Complements the mining
season of CAGA
Further upside at CAGA:
Brownfield and greenfield
Exploration and
development to upgrade and
expand CAGA mine and
adjoining tenements
We aim to be the largest natural resource player in the Philippines
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Historical Prices of LME Nickel - Nothing cures low prices like low prices
Refined nickel prices are now at its lowest over the last 10 years.
China demand for stainless steel has slowed in 2015 along with
the slowdown of the Chinese economy.
Being a dollar denominated commodity, the strong USD has
made nickel more expensive.
A cheaper alternative to pure nickel in nickel pig iron (NPI) is
also giving some downward pressure on nickel prices.
Outlook:
• According to the CEO of Norilsk Nickel, 60% of the nickel industry operated at a cash loss in
2015.
• China is taking advantage of low prices to stockpile.
• Continuing low prices will erase high cost supplies from the market, initiatives to expand capacity
will be halted.
• Low prices will sow the seeds for higher nickel prices in the coming years
• Further downside may be limited.
Global Demand and Supply of Refined Nickel - A global supply deficit looming, starting in 2016? - Demand is outpacing supply?
(‘000 ton) 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) CAGR%
Global Output 1,745 1,962 1,994 1,954 1,942 2.7%
Global Consumption 1,648 1,785 1,863 1,905 1,965 4.5%
Global Surplus/(Deficit) 97 177 131 49 -17
Source: INSG, Antaike
Nickel is extracted and derived from nickel ore. Nickel ore is mined from laterite and sulfide
deposits. About 60% of world reserves are in laterite deposits and 40% in sulfide deposits.
The Philippines, Indonesia, Russia, Canada and Australia are the world’s major nickel ore producers.
China is the world’s largest consumer of nickel (nearly 50% of world production) which is mainly
used in the stainless steel industry. The Philippines is China’s largest supplier of nickel ore.
Nickel ore in the Philippines are extracted from laterite deposits.
• Nickel is expected to be in a supply deficit position starting in 2016.
• Cuts in output/supply but continuing growth in demand will put the world into deficit.
Demand and Supply of Refined Nickel in China - China has very high demand requirements going into the future - China is structurally in deficit
(‘000 ton) 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) CAGR
China Output * 559 700 700 620 580 0.9%
China Consumption 747 867 940 960 980 7.0%
China Surplus/(Deficit) -188 -167 -240 -340 -400
* China Output includes NPI production in China.
Source: INSG, Antaike
• China Output in 2016 includes NPI production of 373k tons of contained nickel. In order to meet
the requirement of 373k tons of output, China will require approximately 38 million WMT of
nickel ore in 2016.
• In 2015, China only imported 35 million WMT of nickel ore of which 98% were from the
Philippines.
• Therefore, China may be expected to import more nickel ore in 2016 than in 2015.
• China’s required nickel output in 2016 may be constrained by ore supply shortages.
Unique Positioning of the Philippines as Supplier to China - Entrenched competitive advantage
China is the largest user of nickel in the world as China is also the largest producer of stainless steel in the world,
accounting for over half of global output.
In 2015, over 97% of the nickel ore imported by China was from the Philippines, making it the largest supplier of
nickel ore to China.
The Philippines is also the nearest supplier of nickel ore to China. Freight charge from the Philippines to China is
around US$6/WMT, making it at least 50% cheaper than other countries such as Indonesia, New Caledonia and
Australia.
Chinese NPI producers who account for 24% of total global nickel output in 2014 (on a contained nickel basis) is
almost exclusively reliant on imports from the Philippines for its laterite ore.
NPI is a cheaper alternative to pure refined nickel for the production of stainless steel. The production of NPI
using laterite nickel ore is cheaper than pure refined nickel sold on the world market.
As the extraction of laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is mostly done using the open cut mining method, the
domestic ore producers have a significant cost advantage over overseas sulfide ore producers which engage in
underground mining.
• Close proximity and lower costs entrench the Philippines as the most cost competitive
supplier of nickel ore to China.
Industry experts (CRU and Antaike) and players (Eramet, PT Indoferro, etc.) expect 2016
to be a deficit year from 15k up to 60k mt. Prices are expected to range from USD12,500
up to USD15,000 or ore prices for HG (USD58 - USD70/WMT) or MG (USD30 -
USD36/WMT). From 2017 prices will remain elevated as deficit will still exist with the
same range.
Indonesia’s planned NPI plants will replace 250k mt of contained nickel from China which
had a peak capacity of 500k mt in 2013. With Philippines only able to support between
200-300k mt in the medium term unless price recovers as mines get depleted, we expect
Indonesia balancing the market till they replace China NPI plants not getting feed from the
Philippines. Philippines currently supply 98% of all nickel laterite ore requirements of
China’s NPI industry.
Nickel Price Outlook
Nickel Ore Price
LME price is not directly correlated with nickel ore prices. The 1.8%Ni ore prices are not moving unlike
the 1.5%Ni and the Low nickel ore. This is more reflective of supply tightness and demand from China
requiring more of the low grade ore. China is producing more material for the lower end stainless steel
200 series (2-6% Ni content). With low stockpiles of these ore prices have gone up and LME
equivalent is already at USD10k to 10.5k/mt.
Budget Production 5.5 million Wet Metric Tons (WMT) broken down to 2.5m WMT medium grade
(>1.5%Ni), 2.0m WMT low grade (<1.49% Ni), 1.0m WMT high grade (1.8%Ni)
Selling Prices US$13/WMT for low grade ore
US$24/WMT for medium grade ore
US$35/WMT for high grade ore (1.8% Ni)
Gross Revenue US$60m for medium grade, US$26m for low grade, US$35m for high grade or total of US$121.0m
COGS US$8/WMT for medium grade, US$6/WMT for low grade and US$10/WMT for high grade or US$42m
G&A (SDMP, EPEP, etc) US$2.00/WMT or US$11.0m
Shipping & Distribution US$2.0/WMT or US$11.0m
Excise Tax & Royalties US$16.16m
Net Income After Tax US$28.59m
Should Ipilan Nickel be able to produce 500k WMT of medium grade at the same price, we expect an additional US$4m will be added to net
income after tax.
Note: Prices quoted above is as of 5-13-16 and final number may differ due to price movements during the year.
2016 Forecast
• FNI average Price Earnings Ratio (PER) has been around 13-15x.
• FNI earnings is normally one half (1/2) of NIKL based on one producing mine vs 4.
• FNI will open up a high grade mine in Palawan come late 2016, pushing permitted capacity by over 20%
and further increases by 2018.
• Potential growth in production from 6.4 million WMT to 11.0 million WMT come 2018 if prices remain
elevated as reserves and resource are substantial.
• Being operationally leverage earnings can grow fast when ore prices go up.
Based on these premises on a status quo FNI’s market capitalization should be half of NIKL. Currently at
PHP38b vs FNI’s PHP15b, our market cap can still increase by over 30%.
At 2016 forecast of USD33m, our market cap can reach PHP22b.
If LME prices rise above USD12,500/mt as forecasted by third party nickel industry specialist then potential
earnings could go up to USD78.5m or PHP3.6b in 2016. Market cap of FNI would reach PHP51b or a price of
PHP2.92/sh
Come 2017 the contribution of Palawan mine at full production would be substantial. With 2017 prices
expected to be higher or at least similar to the highs of 2016, earnings could double up.
Investment Thesis
Impact of Increase Production and Prices
Note: average 10 year LME nickel is closer to USD14,500/mt
DISCLAIMER
The information in this presentation has been prepared by Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (“FNI”) and its subsidiaries (together, the “Group”) and has not
been approved or disapproved by the Group or its directors, officers, employees or shareholders, and none of the Group or any such persons shall be in
any way responsible for the contents hereof.
By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations and
represent that you are a person who is permitted under applicable law and regulation to receive information contained in this presentation. Any failure to
comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law.
This presentation and accompanying slides contains certain statements that are or may be forward-looking, including those relating to general business
plans and strategies of the Group. By their nature, these forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions about FNI’s operations and
factors beyond FNI’s control and are subject to significant risk and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or
may occur in the future. Accordingly, actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including
movements in nickel prices and fluctuations in supply and demand for nickel, reserve and resource estimates, production estimates and replacement of the
Group’s reserves through acquisitions and exploration and development activities, competition in acquiring additional mineral resources and in selling nickel
ore, FNI’s ability to successfully implement its current and future strategies, its ability to anticipate and respond to local and regional trends and general
political, social and economic conditions in the Philippines. There may be additional material risks that are currently not considered to be material or of
which FNI and its advisors or representatives are unaware. FNI assumes no responsibility to update forward-looking statements or to adapt them to future
events or developments. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of, and no
reliance should be placed on, such information or opinions contained in this presentation.
This presentation and accompanying slides are strictly confidential to the recipient. No part of this presentation may be reproduced, retransmitted or further
distributed to any other person in any form or manner and may not be published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This presentation and accompanying
slides must not be distributed to the press or any media organization. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose
without the prior written consent of FNI. Furthermore, the distribution of this presentation may be restricted or prohibited by law.
This presentation is not intended to be a complete or a comprehensive description of FNI or its securities, nor it is a complete or comprehensive analysis of
the financial or trading position or prospect of the Company or the Group. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form
part of, and should not be construed as, a prospectus, offering circular or offering memorandum or an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to purchase or sell,
any securities in any jurisdiction and should not be considered as a recommendation to subscribe for or purchase any of FNI's securities nor shall it or any
part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision