Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

21
Strictly Confidential Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc.

Transcript of Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Page 1: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Strictly Confidential

Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc.

Page 2: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

• A growing mining group

• The Surigao mine

• The Palawan mine

• Financial Highlights

• Top Management Team

• Growth Roadmap

• The nickel story and the Philippines Advantage

• Nickel Price Outlook

• 2016 Earnings Forecast

• Investment Thesis

• Earnings Sensitivity to Price Vs Volume

Presentation Outline

Page 3: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

A growing mining group in the Philippines…

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Well positioned to benefit from the Indonesia ban and

geographically close proximity to China

Surigao mine is overall ranked first among the

Philippines nickel mines for production value and

second largest for production volume in 2014

Surigao mine with substantial reserve with total

indicated and inferred resources of 72.7 MN DMT

(108 MN WMT), since 2007 to 2014 only 8% of the

overall 4,376 hectares has been mined

flexible ore supply and close proximity of shipping

point

Strong growth potential with the acquisition of one of

the best nickel mine deposits in the Philippines

located in the island of Palawan (HG 50%, MG 30%

MG, LG 20%), indicated & inferred resources 66.5

MN DMT (102 MN WMT)

The company is ran by dedicated professionals with

strong and extensive experience in the industry.

100% 99.9%

1

0

0

%

100% 94%

Page 4: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Largest Nickel producers in value and 2nd largest in volume…

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Philippine Nickel Production from MGBDirect Shipping Ore in DMT

Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value

Taganito Mining Corp. Claver Nickel Project 4,632,599 4,595,821,727 4,652,566 7,843,342,054 (0) (41)

Platinum Group Metals Corporation Cagdianao Nickel Project 3,484,800 4,994,633,609 3,417,891 9,936,774,095 2 (50)

Cagdianao Mining Corp. Cagdianao Nickel Project 2,638,179 2,348,634,317 253,922 235,311,260 939 898

Carrascal Nickel Corp Carrascal Nickel Project 2,148,986 1,572,516,060 2,738,710 4,716,011,410 (22) (67)

SR Metals, Inc Tubay Nickel-Cobalt Project 1,939,239 2,375,200,923 1,652,850 3,390,632,239 17 (30)

CTP Construction & Mining Corp Adlay Nickel Project 1,813,394 2,466,928,079 2,285,941 5,866,336,401 (21) (58)

Hinatuan Mining Corp. Tagana-an Nickel Project 1,809,765 1,876,993,451 1,861,871 4,239,952,233 (3) (56)

Rio Tuba Nickel Mining Rio Tuba Nickel Project 1,733,833 3,285,650,000 1,422,528 3,781,671,000 22 (13)

Marcventures Mining & Development Corp. Cantilan Nickel Project 1,603,230 995,652,653 741,608 1,294,291,743 116 (23)

Citinickel Mines & Development Corporation Toronto & Pulot Nickel Projects 921,885 1,389,110,964 1,945,295 3,086,110,756 (53) (55)

Agata Mining Ventures, Inc. Agata North Lateritic Nickel Project 875,670 1,459,454,506 - - - -

Wellex Mining Corporation Wellex Area II Nickel Mining Project 738,596 338,075,758 - - - -

Berong Mining Corp Berong Nickel 720,008 1,714,358,420 677,300 1,116,932,183 6 53

Adnama Mining Resources Incorporated Urbiztondo Nickel Project 547,782 636,436,863 408,468 783,248,000 34 (19)

Oriental Vision Mining Phils. Corporation Palhi Nickel Project 442,700 484,545,758 - - - -

Eramen Minerals Inc. Eramen Sta Cruz Mining Project 398,269 565,941,364 799,060 993,927,964 (50) (43)

Westernshore Nickel Corporation Libjo Project ( Phase 2) 288,889 232,966,535 - - - -

AAM-PHIL Natural Resources Exploration Dinagat Chromite/Nickel Project 261,135 164,521,373 531,492 411,374,536 (51) (60)

Libjo Mining Corporation Libjo Lateritic Nickel Project 175,699 206,670,080 561,050 484,157,936 (69) (57)

LNI Archipelago Minerals Inc. LNL AM Sta Cruz Mining Project 157,623 281,414,368 326,227 688,442,771 (52) (59)

Oriental Synergy Mining Corporation Bel-at Nickel Project 82,579 128,658,394 245,621 200,943,420 (66) (36)

CTP Construction & Mining Corp Dahican Nickel Project 16,626 20,385,137 371,372 618,475,281 (96) (97)

Zambales Diversified Metals Corporation ZDMC Sta. Cruz-Candelaria Mining Project - - 219,972 439,916,346 (100) (100)

Benguet Corporation Nickel Mines Inc. BCNMI Sta. Cruz Nickel Mining Project - - 839,230 1,450,239,115 (100) (100)

Sinosteel Philippines H.Y. Mining Corp. H.Y. Nickel Chromite Project - - - - - -

Grand Total Direct Shipping Ore 27,431,486 32,134,570,339 25,952,974 51,578,090,743 6 (38)

JAN-SEP 2015 JAN-SEP 2014 % ChangeName of Producer Project Name

Page 5: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Brief introduction to FNI - Surigao

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Formed through the injection of Platinum Group Metals

Corporation ("PGMC") into PSE-listed Southeast Asia

Cement Holdings Inc., which was renamed Global

Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. ("FNI")

FNI's current main asset is the Cagdianao mine

("CAGA") in Surigao del Norte province, North-East

Mindanao, which has been producing since 2007

– In calendar year 2015 CAGA shipped 5.4 million wet

metric tonnes ("WMT") from just two mine areas,

CAGA 2 and CAGA 4 out of the total explored five

CAGAs

– JORC indicated & inferred resources of 72.7 million

DMT (108.2 WMT)

– Further development upside from current explored 5

mining areas by further drilling, and the potential

reserve coming from unexplored area of CAGA 6 & 7

– Total drilled area of 893.23 hectares out of MPSA area

of 4,376 hectares, equivalent to 20% of the total

explored tenement

Mindanao

Visayas

INC Mine

Cagdianao Mine

Total mining area:

7,211ha

Mine production vs. shipment history (in ‘000 WMT )

Source: Company information

Page 6: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Brief introduction to FNI - Palawan

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FNI acquired another asset through the acquisition of

Southeast Palawan Nickel Ventures Inc. which holds more

than 90% of Ipilan Nickel Corporation, the Ipilan mine in

Palawan is described as follows:

– The area of the tenement covers an area of 2,835

hectares located in Barangays Ipilan, Mambalot, Masin,

and Calasaguen, Brookes’ Point

– JORC indicated & inferred resources of 66.5 million DMT

(102.3 WMT)

– High quality mine with up to 80% of ores consist of high to

medium grade

– Significant additional acreage and resources with

expected contribution to overall production within one

year. Potential of adding another 3-4 millions of WMT to

FNI overall production volume after two to three years

– 630 hectares out of 2,835 hectares has been explored or

22% of the tenement.

– Weather pattern is opposite from Surigao and the addition

of INC will address the seasonality constraint currently

facing FNI. FNI will be able to have all year round

shipment

Source: Company information

Location Map of MPSA Area relative to the

Philippines Location Map of MPSA Area relative to Palawan

Before Palawan After W/ Palawan

JORC Resource 108.2M WMT JORC Resource 210.5M WMT

Reserves 37.3M WMT Reserves 66.0M WMT

Production Limit 7.0 M WMT/Y Production Limit 8.5M WMT/Y

Page 7: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Repercussion of INC to FNI

• Higher quality of ore (1.93%Ni for high grade) means higher revenues per wet metric ton shipped out.

• Current prices of 1.9%Ni are higher by $6/WMT as compared to 1.8%Ni current price of $35/WMT.

• INC has only 2 product lines HG and MG at 62.5%:37.5% ratio thus higher weighted average price.

• At current prices Surigao’s product mix will average $22/WMT and INC $34.625 or 57% higher.

• Surigao will have around $7/WMT margin and INC will have around $17/WMT margin.

• At proposed maximum production of 3.0 million WMT INC can contribute up to $51 million at todays prices.

• Its like having two mines earning similarly. Net effect its doubling of earnings.

• First quarter and fourth quarter periods will now have earnings as seasonality issues have been addressed.

Page 8: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Financial highlights

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Page 9: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Financial highlights

6,533,218

1,744,426

1,111,750

9,047,476

4,949,749

4,817,047

5,667,768

2,158,254

1,670,329

Revenue

EBITDA

NPAT

GFNI Historical Financials ('000 Php)

30-Jun-14 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15

( 12months ) ( 6months ) ( 12months )

6,533,218

1,858,542

1,369,149

11,979,678

6,017,735

5,696,490

3,759,984

1,067,021

649,186

5,844,204

2144923

1,822,771

Revenue

EBITDA

NPAT

PGMC Historical Financials ('000 Php)

31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15

Page 10: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Mary Belle D.

Bituin

Chief Finance

Officer and Director

Executive Officers, Chairman and Independent Directors of FNI

Experienced management team

Atty. Noel B. Lazaro

Corporate Secretary,

Compliance Officer and

Corporate Information Officer

Joined PGMC on August 1, 2014 and became a

director of PGMC on August 1, 2014

A director and the Corporate Secretary of Southeast

Palawan Nickel Ventures, Inc. and Ipilan Nickel

Corporation.

An attorney of law in the Philippines

Director of PGMC and Chief Finance

Officer and Director of the Company

since October 22, 2014

Vice president for Business

Transformation of Globe Telecom, Inc.

where she has worked since 1998

Joseph C. SY

Chairman and Director

The chairman of FNI and PGMC since Aug.6, 2015,

respectively

Director and President of INC

Director of Mining for the Philippine Chamber of

Commerce and Industry

More than 15 years of experience in managing

companies engaged in mining and mineral exploration

and development

Atty. Dante R. Bravo

President and Director

President and Director of FNI and PGMC since Aug.6,

2015

Chief Finance Officer of PGMC from 2011 to 2013

Also an attorney at law and a certified public

accountant in the Philippines

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Carlo A. Matilac

Senior Vice

President

Technical Mines

Over 19 years of experience in the

mining industry, including mineral

evaluation, planning and design,

mine development and production

Work experiences include working

with BHP Billiton-SIRC, QNI

Philippines Inc., Manila Mining Corp

and Verum Terra Geosciences Inc.

Oversees the mine operations of the

company in Surigao

Has extensive work experience in

the mining industry including among

others as Mine Planning Engineer,

Site Engineer and Safety Engineer

in MRL Gold Philippines, Inc.,

FRASEC Ventures Corporation and

Manila Mining Corporation

Corsino L.

Odtojan

Vice

President—

Operations

Ramon E.

Adviento

Senior Vice

President –

Investor Relations

Over 18 years in mining industry from

mine planning/design, mining operation,

rehabilitation, consultancy for copper,

gold, nickel, chromite, coal

14 years in investment banking industry

as analyst/investment banker. Voted

by the Fund Management Association

of the Philippines as the best mining

analyst for 4 years from 2012 till 2015.

Page 11: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Future growth roadmap

Other value-added

opportunities:

Evaluate other suitable options

for organic and/or acquisition-

led growth

Focus on value-added

opportunities such as vertical

integration

Improve sales quality/quantity:

To increase the production of

mid-high grade ores.

To prepare our self for the

nickel shortage for 2016-22

Acquisition of INC:

Completion of acquisition

2015

Accelerated development

towards production phase

by mid-2016.

Start shipment 2H2016

Complements the mining

season of CAGA

Further upside at CAGA:

Brownfield and greenfield

Exploration and

development to upgrade and

expand CAGA mine and

adjoining tenements

We aim to be the largest natural resource player in the Philippines

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Page 12: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Historical Prices of LME Nickel - Nothing cures low prices like low prices

Refined nickel prices are now at its lowest over the last 10 years.

China demand for stainless steel has slowed in 2015 along with

the slowdown of the Chinese economy.

Being a dollar denominated commodity, the strong USD has

made nickel more expensive.

A cheaper alternative to pure nickel in nickel pig iron (NPI) is

also giving some downward pressure on nickel prices.

Outlook:

• According to the CEO of Norilsk Nickel, 60% of the nickel industry operated at a cash loss in

2015.

• China is taking advantage of low prices to stockpile.

• Continuing low prices will erase high cost supplies from the market, initiatives to expand capacity

will be halted.

• Low prices will sow the seeds for higher nickel prices in the coming years

• Further downside may be limited.

Page 13: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Global Demand and Supply of Refined Nickel - A global supply deficit looming, starting in 2016? - Demand is outpacing supply?

(‘000 ton) 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) CAGR%

Global Output 1,745 1,962 1,994 1,954 1,942 2.7%

Global Consumption 1,648 1,785 1,863 1,905 1,965 4.5%

Global Surplus/(Deficit) 97 177 131 49 -17

Source: INSG, Antaike

Nickel is extracted and derived from nickel ore. Nickel ore is mined from laterite and sulfide

deposits. About 60% of world reserves are in laterite deposits and 40% in sulfide deposits.

The Philippines, Indonesia, Russia, Canada and Australia are the world’s major nickel ore producers.

China is the world’s largest consumer of nickel (nearly 50% of world production) which is mainly

used in the stainless steel industry. The Philippines is China’s largest supplier of nickel ore.

Nickel ore in the Philippines are extracted from laterite deposits.

• Nickel is expected to be in a supply deficit position starting in 2016.

• Cuts in output/supply but continuing growth in demand will put the world into deficit.

Page 14: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Demand and Supply of Refined Nickel in China - China has very high demand requirements going into the future - China is structurally in deficit

(‘000 ton) 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) CAGR

China Output * 559 700 700 620 580 0.9%

China Consumption 747 867 940 960 980 7.0%

China Surplus/(Deficit) -188 -167 -240 -340 -400

* China Output includes NPI production in China.

Source: INSG, Antaike

• China Output in 2016 includes NPI production of 373k tons of contained nickel. In order to meet

the requirement of 373k tons of output, China will require approximately 38 million WMT of

nickel ore in 2016.

• In 2015, China only imported 35 million WMT of nickel ore of which 98% were from the

Philippines.

• Therefore, China may be expected to import more nickel ore in 2016 than in 2015.

• China’s required nickel output in 2016 may be constrained by ore supply shortages.

Page 15: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Unique Positioning of the Philippines as Supplier to China - Entrenched competitive advantage

China is the largest user of nickel in the world as China is also the largest producer of stainless steel in the world,

accounting for over half of global output.

In 2015, over 97% of the nickel ore imported by China was from the Philippines, making it the largest supplier of

nickel ore to China.

The Philippines is also the nearest supplier of nickel ore to China. Freight charge from the Philippines to China is

around US$6/WMT, making it at least 50% cheaper than other countries such as Indonesia, New Caledonia and

Australia.

Chinese NPI producers who account for 24% of total global nickel output in 2014 (on a contained nickel basis) is

almost exclusively reliant on imports from the Philippines for its laterite ore.

NPI is a cheaper alternative to pure refined nickel for the production of stainless steel. The production of NPI

using laterite nickel ore is cheaper than pure refined nickel sold on the world market.

As the extraction of laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is mostly done using the open cut mining method, the

domestic ore producers have a significant cost advantage over overseas sulfide ore producers which engage in

underground mining.

• Close proximity and lower costs entrench the Philippines as the most cost competitive

supplier of nickel ore to China.

Page 16: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Industry experts (CRU and Antaike) and players (Eramet, PT Indoferro, etc.) expect 2016

to be a deficit year from 15k up to 60k mt. Prices are expected to range from USD12,500

up to USD15,000 or ore prices for HG (USD58 - USD70/WMT) or MG (USD30 -

USD36/WMT). From 2017 prices will remain elevated as deficit will still exist with the

same range.

Indonesia’s planned NPI plants will replace 250k mt of contained nickel from China which

had a peak capacity of 500k mt in 2013. With Philippines only able to support between

200-300k mt in the medium term unless price recovers as mines get depleted, we expect

Indonesia balancing the market till they replace China NPI plants not getting feed from the

Philippines. Philippines currently supply 98% of all nickel laterite ore requirements of

China’s NPI industry.

Nickel Price Outlook

Page 17: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Nickel Ore Price

LME price is not directly correlated with nickel ore prices. The 1.8%Ni ore prices are not moving unlike

the 1.5%Ni and the Low nickel ore. This is more reflective of supply tightness and demand from China

requiring more of the low grade ore. China is producing more material for the lower end stainless steel

200 series (2-6% Ni content). With low stockpiles of these ore prices have gone up and LME

equivalent is already at USD10k to 10.5k/mt.

Page 18: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Budget Production 5.5 million Wet Metric Tons (WMT) broken down to 2.5m WMT medium grade

(>1.5%Ni), 2.0m WMT low grade (<1.49% Ni), 1.0m WMT high grade (1.8%Ni)

Selling Prices US$13/WMT for low grade ore

US$24/WMT for medium grade ore

US$35/WMT for high grade ore (1.8% Ni)

Gross Revenue US$60m for medium grade, US$26m for low grade, US$35m for high grade or total of US$121.0m

COGS US$8/WMT for medium grade, US$6/WMT for low grade and US$10/WMT for high grade or US$42m

G&A (SDMP, EPEP, etc) US$2.00/WMT or US$11.0m

Shipping & Distribution US$2.0/WMT or US$11.0m

Excise Tax & Royalties US$16.16m

Net Income After Tax US$28.59m

Should Ipilan Nickel be able to produce 500k WMT of medium grade at the same price, we expect an additional US$4m will be added to net

income after tax.

Note: Prices quoted above is as of 5-13-16 and final number may differ due to price movements during the year.

2016 Forecast

Page 19: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

• FNI average Price Earnings Ratio (PER) has been around 13-15x.

• FNI earnings is normally one half (1/2) of NIKL based on one producing mine vs 4.

• FNI will open up a high grade mine in Palawan come late 2016, pushing permitted capacity by over 20%

and further increases by 2018.

• Potential growth in production from 6.4 million WMT to 11.0 million WMT come 2018 if prices remain

elevated as reserves and resource are substantial.

• Being operationally leverage earnings can grow fast when ore prices go up.

Based on these premises on a status quo FNI’s market capitalization should be half of NIKL. Currently at

PHP38b vs FNI’s PHP15b, our market cap can still increase by over 30%.

At 2016 forecast of USD33m, our market cap can reach PHP22b.

If LME prices rise above USD12,500/mt as forecasted by third party nickel industry specialist then potential

earnings could go up to USD78.5m or PHP3.6b in 2016. Market cap of FNI would reach PHP51b or a price of

PHP2.92/sh

Come 2017 the contribution of Palawan mine at full production would be substantial. With 2017 prices

expected to be higher or at least similar to the highs of 2016, earnings could double up.

Investment Thesis

Page 20: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

Impact of Increase Production and Prices

Note: average 10 year LME nickel is closer to USD14,500/mt

Page 21: Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc

DISCLAIMER

The information in this presentation has been prepared by Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (“FNI”) and its subsidiaries (together, the “Group”) and has not

been approved or disapproved by the Group or its directors, officers, employees or shareholders, and none of the Group or any such persons shall be in

any way responsible for the contents hereof.

By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations and

represent that you are a person who is permitted under applicable law and regulation to receive information contained in this presentation. Any failure to

comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law.

This presentation and accompanying slides contains certain statements that are or may be forward-looking, including those relating to general business

plans and strategies of the Group. By their nature, these forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions about FNI’s operations and

factors beyond FNI’s control and are subject to significant risk and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or

may occur in the future. Accordingly, actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including

movements in nickel prices and fluctuations in supply and demand for nickel, reserve and resource estimates, production estimates and replacement of the

Group’s reserves through acquisitions and exploration and development activities, competition in acquiring additional mineral resources and in selling nickel

ore, FNI’s ability to successfully implement its current and future strategies, its ability to anticipate and respond to local and regional trends and general

political, social and economic conditions in the Philippines. There may be additional material risks that are currently not considered to be material or of

which FNI and its advisors or representatives are unaware. FNI assumes no responsibility to update forward-looking statements or to adapt them to future

events or developments. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of, and no

reliance should be placed on, such information or opinions contained in this presentation.

This presentation and accompanying slides are strictly confidential to the recipient. No part of this presentation may be reproduced, retransmitted or further

distributed to any other person in any form or manner and may not be published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This presentation and accompanying

slides must not be distributed to the press or any media organization. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose

without the prior written consent of FNI. Furthermore, the distribution of this presentation may be restricted or prohibited by law.

This presentation is not intended to be a complete or a comprehensive description of FNI or its securities, nor it is a complete or comprehensive analysis of

the financial or trading position or prospect of the Company or the Group. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form

part of, and should not be construed as, a prospectus, offering circular or offering memorandum or an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to purchase or sell,

any securities in any jurisdiction and should not be considered as a recommendation to subscribe for or purchase any of FNI's securities nor shall it or any

part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision